The 2026 outlook
Can this team separate in the country's most compressed conference race?
TCU opens No. 33 nationally and No. 6 of 16 in the Big 12. The 4M baseline rates the roster 7.6 points above an average FBS team on a neutral field and projects 6.1 regular-season wins.
TCU grades as a legitimate ranked team capable of punishing an overrated opponent. The distance to the playoff tier is consistency: one empty offensive quarter, a protection failure or a coverage bust can turn a controlled game into a coin flip.
There are enough playable pieces to compete, but the roster needs a dependable identity. Stable quarterback efficiency or an obvious line-of-scrimmage advantage would lift the ceiling. Portal additions matter only if their roles translate into protection, pressure or explosive-play creation.
The schedule grades No. 45 nationally—enough resistance to expose weaknesses without defining the entire year. A small group of swing games should determine whether TCU beats its 6.1-win projection, placing extra value on special teams, fourth-down decisions and late-game quarterback play.
Personnel command center
Who is back, who arrived and who has to matter.
The roster is grouped by continuity because returning snaps and proven transfer production are more useful than raw headcount. “New / unverified” means the player did not match last season's roster or the incoming portal file—not that the player is necessarily a freshman.
Head coachSonny Dykes44–21 over the available CFBD career window
Staff continuityReturning head coachContinuity is treated as context, not an automatic upgrade.
Portal ledger12 in · 14 outImpact is weighted by rating, position and prior usage.
Position-group modelPremium roles separated.Fifty is FBS average. Quarterback includes the modeled starter probability, not merely the best name in the room.
4M player valueHighest-leverage rolesMaximum point value assumes the player is fully unavailable and is reduced by status probability.
PlayerPos.4M valueSizeContinuity
#1Jaden CraigMontclair, NJQB5.5 pts94% starter · 64% conf.6′3″ · 225 lbTransfer infrom Harvard
#6Jeremy ScottJackson, MSWR0.6 pts46% role · 64% conf.6′3″ · 205 lbTransfer infrom South Alabama
#59Jaheim BuchanonFort Myers, FLOL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 300 lbTransfer infrom Florida International
#58Noah McKinneyAnnapolis, MDOL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 325 lbTransfer infrom Oklahoma State
#12Kalen CarrollIndianapolis, INCB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 185 lbTransfer infrom Central Michigan
#21Teon ParksDetroit, MICB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 180 lbTransfer infrom Colorado
#36Cheta OfiliRowlett, TXLB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 245 lbTransfer infrom Texas Tech
#16Koron HaywardJacksonville, FLLB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 245 lbTransfer infrom Western Kentucky
#11Michael ShortCharlotte, NCLB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 235 lbTransfer infrom Virginia Tech
#27Landon WalkerFort Worth, TXRB0.3 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 225 lbTransfer infrom Colorado School of Mines
#48John Hoyet ChanceShreveport, LAP0.3 pts38% role · 52% conf.6′1″ · 205 lbTransfer infrom Louisiana Tech
#7Jordan DwyerPuyallup, WAWR0.8 pts60% role · 64% conf.6′0″ · 190 lbReturning
#18Ed SmallAustin, TXWR0.8 pts55% role · 64% conf.6′0″ · 205 lbReturning
#26Jeremy PayneMissouri City, TXRB0.7 pts73% role · 76% conf.5′10″ · 180 lbReturning
#15Terry SheltonCarrollton, TXWR0.6 pts49% role · 64% conf.6′4″ · 205 lbReturning
#3Major EverhartAmarillo, TXWR0.6 pts51% role · 64% conf.5′11″ · 180 lbReturning
#12Lafayette KaiuwayArlington, TXTE0.6 pts46% role · 64% conf.6′6″ · 260 lbReturning
#88Ka'Morreun PimptonFort Worth, TXTE0.6 pts46% role · 64% conf.6′6″ · 250 lbReturning
#56Ben Taylor-WhitfieldDuncanville, TXOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′6″ · 320 lbReturning
#60Cade BennettScottsdale, AZOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 310 lbReturning
#77Cooper PowersConcord, CAOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 310 lbReturning
#71Creece BristerStephenville, TXOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 315 lbReturning
#61Dylan KinneyRichmond, TXOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 315 lbReturning
#69Gannon GaubertDallas, TXOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 315 lbReturning
#72Jackson JonesFranklinton, LAOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′7″ · 310 lbReturning
#73Kilian RegisteKeller, TXOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′6″ · 300 lbReturning
#65Logan SchramBoerne, TXOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′6″ · 325 lbReturning
#70Ryan HughesThe Woodlands, TXOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′6″ · 320 lbReturning
#55Samir CamachoHouston, TXOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 295 lbReturning
#53Tobias SteppesLancaster, TXOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′6″ · 310 lbReturning
#66Wesley HarveyMuskogee, OKOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′8″ · 305 lbReturning
#50Witten Van HoyBenton, LAOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′6″ · 320 lbReturning
#92Ansel Din-MbuhAledo, TXDT0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 300 lbReturning
#52Blake RobinettFort Worth, TXDT0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 280 lbReturning
#99Brody WhatleyMonroe, LADT0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 285 lbReturning
#91Floyd GuidrySpring, TXDT0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 285 lbReturning
#90Kelten MickellEllisville, MSDT0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 295 lbReturning
#95Markis DealGarland, TXDT0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 320 lbReturning
#34Perry Cole Jr.Palestine, TXDT0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 310 lbReturning
#35Tristan JohnsonHurst, TXDT0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 295 lbReturning
#0Dozie EzukanmaFort Worth, TXWR0.5 pts49% role · 64% conf.6′3″ · 190 lbReturning
#16Braylon JamesRound Rock, TXWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 190 lbReturning
#17Dane JonesMissouri City, TXWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 190 lbReturning
#22Fletcher FierroRockwall, TXWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 195 lbReturning
#80Jacobe HayesMansfield, TXWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 175 lbReturning
#83Keagan CunninghamDenton, TXWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 180 lbReturning
#86Sutton LeeDenton, TXWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 175 lbReturning
#10Mason PetersonDickinson, TXTE0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 245 lbReturning
#26Deon MaysArlington, TXCB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 185 lbReturning
#17Devondre McGeeConroe, TXCB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 190 lbReturning
#4Gil Jackson Jr.Missouri City, TXCB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 195 lbReturning
#28Micah StricklandBrownsboro, TXCB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 180 lbReturning
#1Vernon Glover Jr.Dickinson, TXCB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 195 lbReturning
#15Devyn HidrogoFranklin, TXS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 205 lbReturning
#2Jamel JohnsonArlington, TXS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 205 lbReturning
#22Jordan LesterMesquite, TXS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 190 lbReturning
#24Joseph AlbrightHouston, TXS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 180 lbReturning
#7Julius SimmsWhitehouse, TXS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 205 lbReturning
#18Kaden McFaddenTexarkana, TXS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 200 lbReturning
#6Kylin JacksonClinton, LAS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 200 lbReturning
#13Ryan YaitesDenton, TXS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 200 lbReturning
#42Sebastian PetersonAnaheim, CAS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 185 lbReturning
#20Anthony WilliamsPearland, TXLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 215 lbReturning
#41Caleb CortezCelina, TXLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 225 lbReturning
#9CJ WoodforkHumble, TXLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 245 lbReturning
#32Dillon ArkansasDenton, TXLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 210 lbReturning
#37Hudson HooperCypress, TXLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 235 lbReturning
#94Jared MartinEl Centro, CALB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 240 lbReturning
#14John SchobelColumbus, TXLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 245 lbReturning
#23Keylan AbramsDesoto, TXLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 215 lbReturning
#3Max CarrollMemphis, TNLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 230 lbReturning
#27Michael Teason Jr.St. Louis, MOLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 220 lbReturning
#97Paul OyewaleHouston, TXLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 265 lbReturning
#46Rhett SteppeAustin, TXLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 230 lbReturning
#44Sam HaleyNashville, TNLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 230 lbReturning
#0Zach ChapmanMissouri City, TXLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 265 lbReturning
#2Jon DenmanPalestine, TXRB0.4 pts58% role · 76% conf.5′10″ · 215 lbReturning
#24Joe PitchfordLiberty Hill, TXRB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 210 lbReturning
#99Nate McCashlandLincoln, NEPK0.3 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 175 lbReturning
#41Sam BisesiNew Canaan, CTPK0.3 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 185 lbReturning
#97Easton BlackPeoria, AZP0.3 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 200 lbReturning
#47Aaron BowersHurst, TXLS0.3 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 215 lbReturning
#34Kyle LemmermannSouthlake, TXPK0.3 pts44% role · 52% conf.6′2″ · 190 lbReturning
#11Adam SchobelColumbus, TXQB0.2 pts4% starter · 40% conf.6′5″ · 210 lbReturning
#12David PotterTexarkana, TXQB0.2 pts4% starter · 40% conf.6′4″ · 220 lbReturning
#51Devan RobisonHouston, TXOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 305 lbNew / unverified
#64Jacob AhumadaGilroy, CAOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 315 lbNew / unverified
#62Jordan BurnettMissouri City, TXOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 325 lbNew / unverified
#74Vincent Johnson Jr.Sulphur Springs, TXOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′5″ · 330 lbNew / unverified
#40Oliver GunnLa Grange, TXDE0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 235 lbNew / unverified
#96Maddox FlyntAustin, TXDT0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 285 lbNew / unverified
#4Ace TheusDallas, TXWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′9″ · 170 lbNew / unverified
#84Cooper ReidDripping Springs, TXWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 195 lbNew / unverified
#32Jaden MoreheadNew Haven, CTWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 195 lbNew / unverified
#13James ScottHouston, TXWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′5″ · 230 lbNew / unverified
#14Khamill PruittArlington, TXWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 180 lbNew / unverified
#89Braden BachArgyle, TXTE0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′5″ · 240 lbNew / unverified
#81Kari AshleyMarietta, GATE0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 225 lbNew / unverified
#16Brock KingBeaumont, TXCB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′11″ · 180 lbNew / unverified
#30Max RankinLa Mirada, CACB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′10″ · 190 lbNew / unverified
#39Jack PitchfordLiberty Hill, TXS0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′11″ · 185 lbNew / unverified
#29Jason BradfordTemple, TXS0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 200 lbNew / unverified
#25Zach TaylorKaty, TXS0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 190 lbNew / unverified
#49Anders CornDallas, TXLB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 230 lbNew / unverified
#98Carter BuckAustin, TXLB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′6″ · 255 lbNew / unverified
#19Jesse FordArlington, TXLB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′5″ · 255 lbNew / unverified
#55Lawson WatkinsAustin, TXLB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 230 lbNew / unverified
#31Noriel DominguezMiami, FLLB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 240 lbNew / unverified
#38Zion JunkHalawa, HILB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 210 lbNew / unverified
#9Jack DaultonThe Woodlands, TXQB0.2 pts4% starter · 28% conf.6′2″ · 195 lbNew / unverified
#6Jayden MaplesFrisco, TXQB0.2 pts4% starter · 28% conf.6′1″ · 200 lbNew / unverified
#23Amante MartinPort Arthur, TXRB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′11″ · 205 lbNew / unverified
#20G'Ivori GrahamSan Antonio, TXRB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′9″ · 190 lbNew / unverified
#31Jacob MartinezProsper, TXRB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′8″ · 195 lbNew / unverified
#29Joseph HagmanWestlake, TXRB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 215 lbNew / unverified
#43Will TerryManvel, TXLS0.1 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 230 lbNew / unverified
2026 schedule
The path that shapes the projection.
The model prices every scheduled game individually. Home field, neutral sites, completed results and opponent rating feed the expected-win total shown above.
WeekOpponentSiteDate / result
1North CarolinaNon-conference · Aviva Stadium · 4M 22–29 · 66% win
NeutralAug 2912:00 PM EDT · model ↗2
GramblingNon-conference · Amon G. Carter Stadium · 4M 9–43 · 97% win
HomeSep 128:00 PM EDT · model ↗3Arkansas StateNon-conference · Amon G. Carter Stadium · 4M 18–34 · 81% win
HomeSep 198:00 PM EDT · model ↗4
UCFConference · FBC Mortgage Stadium · 4M 28–24 · 59% win
AwaySep 2612:00 AM EDT · model ↗5
BYUConference · Amon G. Carter Stadium · 4M 27–25 · 46% win
HomeOct 312:00 AM EDT · model ↗7
BaylorConference · McLane Stadium · 4M 27–26 · 52% win
AwayOct 1712:00 AM EDT · model ↗8
West VirginiaConference · Amon G. Carter Stadium · 4M 20–31 · 74% win
HomeOct 2412:00 AM EDT · model ↗9
KansasConference · Amon G. Carter Stadium · 4M 24–30 · 61% win
HomeOct 3112:00 AM EDT · model ↗10
ArizonaConference · Arizona Stadium · 4M 24–27 · 43% win
AwayNov 610:15 PM EST · model ↗11
Kansas StateConference · Amon G. Carter Stadium · 4M 25–27 · 54% win
HomeNov 1412:00 AM EST · model ↗12
UtahConference · Amon G. Carter Stadium · 4M 28–25 · 44% win
HomeNov 2112:00 AM EST · model ↗13
Texas TechConference · Jones AT&T Stadium · 4M 19–30 · 27% win
AwayNov 268:00 PM EST · model ↗
Range of outcomes
The projection is the middle—not the ceiling.
Floor case4 wins
Instability at premium positions turns swing games into losses.
4M midpoint6 wins
The roster performs close to its current power and schedule baseline.
Ceiling case8 wins
Quarterback play and line continuity outperform the preseason prior.
The betting lens
Price and matchup decide the play.
No team is an automatic bet or fade. The goal is to identify when the market's story about TCU diverges from the football conditions required to cover.
The number is below a full possession and TCU's best unit attacks a verified opponent weakness.
The case rests on ranking, résumé or home-field narrative rather than a repeatable down-to-down advantage.
Early-down success rate, pressure allowed and defensive explosive-play rate. Two stable categories would justify an upgrade.
Season-defining questionCan this team separate in the country's most compressed conference race?