One live model hierarchy
RANKINGS.
ONE HOME.
4M-INTELLIGENCE-1.5
Top 25, playoff race and every FBS team now live together. Change the view without hunting through three separate sections.
Updated August 27, 2026National hierarchy
The 4M Top 25.
Movement compares this edition with the previous completed model run. The order changes only when the underlying evidence changes.
No. 1Ohio State100 model score
Highest riserTennesseeSince the previous model run
Playoff cut lineNo. 12 Ole Miss17.6% model probability
RankTeamMoveRating4M scoreExp. winsPlayoff
1Ohio StateBig Ten · National title—Rating+27.84M score100Expected wins9.3Playoff100%2OregonBig Ten · National title—Rating+24.34M score94Expected wins8.2Playoff100%3Notre DameIndependent · National title—Rating+23.84M score93Expected wins9.9Playoff100%4IndianaBig Ten · National title▲ 1Rating+22.74M score91Expected wins8.2Playoff99.7%5GeorgiaSEC · National title▼ 1Rating+22.04M score90Expected wins7.7Playoff98.9%6MiamiACC · National title—Rating+20.34M score86Expected wins8.3Playoff97.6%7Texas TechBig 12 · Playoff—Rating+19.14M score84Expected wins8.7Playoff96%8TexasSEC · Playoff—Rating+18.24M score83Expected wins7.4Playoff73.3%9Texas A&MSEC · Playoff—Rating+18.24M score83Expected wins7.1Playoff67.5%10USCBig Ten · Playoff—Rating+16.54M score79Expected wins7.8Playoff55.4%11AlabamaSEC · Playoff▲ 1Rating+15.94M score78Expected wins6.6Playoff20.8%12Ole MissSEC · Playoff▼ 1Rating+15.64M score78Expected wins6.5Playoff17.6%13OklahomaSEC · Playoff—Rating+14.44M score76Expected wins7.1Playoff18.6%14UtahBig 12 · Playoff—Rating+14.44M score76Expected wins7.5Playoff26.3%15TennesseeSEC · Playoff▲ 3Rating+14.04M score75Expected wins6.5Playoff7.4%16Penn StateBig Ten · Playoff—Rating+13.74M score74Expected wins8.2Playoff29.6%17WashingtonBig Ten · Playoff—Rating+13.74M score74Expected wins6.5Playoff4.8%18MichiganBig Ten · Playoff▼ 3Rating+13.44M score74Expected wins7Playoff6.5%19BYUBig 12 · Playoff▲ 1Rating+12.64M score72Expected wins6.8Playoff7.9%20LSUSEC · Playoff▼ 1Rating+12.24M score72Expected wins5.9Playoff2.1%21MissouriSEC · Top 25—Rating+11.94M score71Expected wins6.1Playoff2.8%22VanderbiltSEC · Top 25▲ 2Rating+11.34M score70Expected wins6.1Playoff1.9%23IowaBig Ten · Top 25▼ 1Rating+11.14M score70Expected wins6.4Playoff0.7%24SMUACC · Top 25▼ 1Rating+10.44M score68Expected wins7Playoff11.8%25LouisvilleACC · Top 25▲ 1Rating+9.84M score67Expected wins6.7Playoff8.5%
