The 2026 outlook
Can an aggressive roster build survive the depth demands of the MAC immediately?
Sacramento State opens No. 131 nationally and No. 10 of 13 in the MAC. The 4M baseline rates the roster 16.0 points below an average FBS team on a neutral field and projects 4.3 regular-season wins.
Sacramento State begins below the FBS average, so progress should first appear in functional line play, fewer negative snaps and cleaner late-game execution. That does not make this team an automatic fade; large spreads become valuable when the favorite lacks the pace or explosiveness to create margin.
Sacramento State's move is built around upside and portal volume. The low starting rank reflects transition uncertainty more than a belief that the roster cannot create individual upsets.
The schedule projects among the country's most manageable at No. 136. That creates upside in the win column, but also a pricing trap: the record can improve faster than the underlying team quality, inviting bettors to pay for results that came against limited resistance.
Pressure pointFBS transition · quarterback2025: First FBS season
Personnel command center
Who is back, who arrived and who has to matter.
The roster is grouped by continuity because returning snaps and proven transfer production are more useful than raw headcount. “New / unverified” means the player did not match last season's roster or the incoming portal file—not that the player is necessarily a freshman.
Head coachAlonzo Carter0–0 over the available CFBD career window
Staff continuityNew head coachContinuity is treated as context, not an automatic upgrade.
Portal ledger26 in · 22 outImpact is weighted by rating, position and prior usage.
Position-group modelPremium roles separated.Fifty is FBS average. Quarterback includes the modeled starter probability, not merely the best name in the room.
4M player valueHighest-leverage rolesMaximum point value assumes the player is fully unavailable and is reduced by status probability.
PlayerPos.4M valueSizeContinuity
#17Carson ConklinYorba Linda, CAQB4.2 pts94% starter · 76% conf.6′1″ · 190 lbTransfer infrom Fresno State
#25Davion GodleyRichmond, TXRB0.7 pts79% role · 64% conf.5′8″ · 213 lbTransfer infrom Weber State
#82Kyle KoontzMinden, NVTE0.6 pts42% role · 64% conf.6′4″ · 224 lbTransfer infrom Houston Christian
#55Garrison BlankRocklin, CAOL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′7″ · 328 lbTransfer infrom UCLA
#74Vae SoifuaOrem, UTOL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 308 lbTransfer infrom Weber State
#52Isiah ChalaSan Francisco, CADL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 275 lbTransfer infrom Fresno State
#58Jamel HowardChicago, ILDL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 307 lbTransfer infrom Wisconsin
#5Nick DimitrisWatts, CADL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 305 lbTransfer infrom Florida A&M
#95Will WeberSan Jose, CADL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 280 lbTransfer infrom UTEP
#13Ellijah WashingtonOakland, CAWR0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 162 lbTransfer infrom Oregon State
#5Raiden BrownLong Beach, CAWR0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 175 lbTransfer infrom Idaho State
#88Cedric AntonPoppenhausenTE0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 248 lbTransfer infrom Tiffin University
#2Dionte ThorntonCarson, CACB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 183 lbTransfer infrom Portland State
#12Malikai NicholsBaltimore, MDCB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 167 lbTransfer infrom Saint Francis (PA)
#30Nikko KlemmGardena, CACB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 169 lbTransfer infrom Arizona State
#3Amari WallaceMiami, FLS0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 185 lbTransfer infrom Miami
#1Boogsie SilveraPembroke Pines, FLS0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 200 lbTransfer infrom South Florida
#0Donovan TurnerLong Beach, CAS0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 190 lbTransfer infrom Illinois
#27Noah KingHamilton, OHS0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 209 lbTransfer infrom Colorado
#20Qualyn McQueenMiami, FLS0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.5′9″ · 182 lbTransfer infrom Nebraska-Kearney
#8Darson JeantyHillside, NJLB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 215 lbTransfer infrom Lafayette
#11Ivan Moore Jr.Chicago, ILLB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 217 lbTransfer infrom Northern Illinois
#26Tim ThomasTracy, CALB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 236 lbTransfer infrom Fresno State
#3Cincere RhaneyLos Angeles, CARB0.3 pts38% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 210 lbTransfer infrom San Diego State
#11Jaylen PattersonLos Angeles, CAQB0.2 pts4% starter · 40% conf.6′2″ · 193 lbTransfer infrom New Mexico State
#1Jamar CurtisWaldorf, MDRB0.5 pts55% role · 52% conf.5′8″ · 175 lbNew / unverified
#9Ajon BryantSanta Ana, CAWR0.4 pts28% role · 52% conf.5′6″ · 162 lbNew / unverified
#16Jordan WilliamsRiverside, CATE0.4 pts26% role · 52% conf.6′5″ · 222 lbNew / unverified
#2Matt ColemanCarson, CAWR0.4 pts28% role · 52% conf.6′0″ · 173 lbNew / unverified
#10Jace WilsonDenton, TXWR0.3 pts24% role · 52% conf.6′4″ · 212 lbNew / unverified
#12Onterrio Smith Jr.Sacramento, CAWR0.3 pts24% role · 52% conf.6′2″ · 189 lbNew / unverified
#76Alex KenwardMason City, IAOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 270 lbNew / unverified
#64Brandon SousaPleasanton, CAOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 313 lbNew / unverified
#71Bryson SummersEl Dorado Hills, CAOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′5″ · 329 lbNew / unverified
#58Daniel MataeleManteca, CAOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′6″ · 360 lbNew / unverified
#68Davis MayBakersfield, CAOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 339 lbNew / unverified
#75DeAnthony SheffieldLos Angeles, CAOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 329 lbNew / unverified
#79Dylan SpencerBoulder City, NVOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′7″ · 315 lbNew / unverified
#53Elijah OrtizUnion City, CAOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 305 lbNew / unverified
#65Giovanni KovacsPleasanton, CAOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 309 lbNew / unverified
#66Hayden FrazierCypress, CAOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 286 lbNew / unverified
#63Jamin GuilbertEureka, CAOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′5″ · 311 lbNew / unverified
#70Jaxon MooreRoseville, CAOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′6″ · 312 lbNew / unverified
#56Jeremiah PonceGarden Grove, CAOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 305 lbNew / unverified
#77Jeremiah StallworthPalo Alto, CAOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′7″ · 325 lbNew / unverified
#57Luke SlaterBellevue, WAOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 275 lbNew / unverified
#78Richard McKayVallejo, CAOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′6″ · 300 lbNew / unverified
#72Shaan LathanSan Jose, CAOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 350 lbNew / unverified
#54Shontrail KeyChicago, ILOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′5″ · 290 lbNew / unverified
#83Jaxon FresquesLayton, UTWR0.3 pts24% role · 52% conf.5′7″ · 167 lbNew / unverified
#94Austin AtenSacramento, CADL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 240 lbNew / unverified
#90Austin ChambersMadison, ALDL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 270 lbNew / unverified
#54Brodie TagaloaPittsburg, CADL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′5″ · 294 lbNew / unverified
#98Collin KallhoffHampshire, ILDL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 268 lbNew / unverified
#99Devyn BlakeHuntington Beach, CADL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 300 lbNew / unverified
#50Federico CobarubioSan Jose, CADL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 303 lbNew / unverified
#96Jadakiss VaokakalaSeattle, WADL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 280 lbNew / unverified
#7Kaden BriggsLouisville, KYDL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 285 lbNew / unverified
#93Malachi KindleLos Angeles, CADL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 308 lbNew / unverified
#91Maliek RichardsonLos Angeles, CADL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 358 lbNew / unverified
#9Malik TullisFairburn, GADL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 283 lbNew / unverified
#55Miles BaileyVallejo, CADL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 297 lbNew / unverified
#32Peyton McCutcheonLakewood, CADL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 225 lbNew / unverified
#45Xavier WilliamsGustine, CADL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 251 lbNew / unverified
#80Carlton PerrilliatOakland, CAWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 185 lbNew / unverified
#15Dezmyn HardyNorth Hills, CAWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′6″ · 188 lbNew / unverified
#14Drey GarnerSan Diego, CAWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 193 lbNew / unverified
#19Guy Fernandez IIISherman Oaks, CAWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 171 lbNew / unverified
#21Kenneth PeevyLos Angeles, CAWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′9″ · 160 lbNew / unverified
#4Kenyon ShabazzSacramento, CAWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 185 lbNew / unverified
#7Khai TaylorPittsburg, CAWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 172 lbNew / unverified
#81Matthew AuauSanta Maria, CAWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 185 lbNew / unverified
#85Elijah HuddleCitrus Heights, CATE0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 220 lbNew / unverified
#86Jack HodgeThornton, COTE0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 210 lbNew / unverified
#84Jahlil LindseyOakland, CATE0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′6″ · 235 lbNew / unverified
#87Luke MeekerManhattan Beach, CATE0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 210 lbNew / unverified
#21Adam TaylorStockton, CACB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′10″ · 159 lbNew / unverified
#29Caleb ReeseOceanside, CACB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′11″ · 187 lbNew / unverified
#22Elias MullicanRocklin, CACB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 180 lbNew / unverified
#24Kyle GurganiousSacramento, CACB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′11″ · 180 lbNew / unverified
#38Tim Edwards Jr.Pittsburg, CACB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 170 lbNew / unverified
#23Chakai ScottOcoee, FLS0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′9″ · 172 lbNew / unverified
#13Diesel GordonArlington, TXS0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 168 lbNew / unverified
#14Joshua HolaniIrvine, CAS0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′10″ · 180 lbNew / unverified
#39Keyon MillsPasadena, CAS0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′11″ · 185 lbNew / unverified
#19Miles TuckerPleasanton, CAS0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 188 lbNew / unverified
#25Naytel MitchellPittsburgh, PAS0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′10″ · 191 lbNew / unverified
#6Warren Smith Jr.Richmond, CAS0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 189 lbNew / unverified
#33Alex RochaBakersfield, CALB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 213 lbNew / unverified
#4Dante AntoniniPetaluma, CALB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 226 lbNew / unverified
#10Derek HoustonRocklin, CALB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 223 lbNew / unverified
#44Diego DavisNapa, CALB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 235 lbNew / unverified
#17Dylan GoodenColumbia, MDLB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 215 lbNew / unverified
#18Fata PulokaSacramento, CALB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 224 lbNew / unverified
#40Iosefa LealofiBarstow, CALB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 215 lbNew / unverified
#31Jackson CahoonMountain View, CALB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 219 lbNew / unverified
#28Jiah WallsOrlando, FLLB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 212 lbNew / unverified
#15KJ JeffersonSt. Louis, MOLB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 209 lbNew / unverified
#16Leki HolaniRancho Cucamonga, CALB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 226 lbNew / unverified
#41Pheta TofaeonoPittsburg, CALB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 225 lbNew / unverified
#6Brian SalazarMonrovia, CAQB0.2 pts4% starter · 28% conf.6′3″ · 170 lbNew / unverified
#8Jackson SharmanTorrance, CAQB0.2 pts4% starter · 28% conf.6′1″ · 195 lbNew / unverified
#18Liam MeekerManhattan Beach, CAQB0.2 pts4% starter · 28% conf.6′2″ · 210 lbNew / unverified
#20Bryant CollinsWatts, CARB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 191 lbNew / unverified
#14Curron BordersSacramento, CARB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′7″ · 191 lbNew / unverified
#0Daniel SwinneyLouisville, KYRB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′10″ · 225 lbNew / unverified
#23Elias BrownAntelope, CARB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 226 lbNew / unverified
#22Isaiah EneRoseville, CARB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′8″ · 212 lbNew / unverified
#34Montrell RiceHayward, CARB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 230 lbNew / unverified
#49Grant MeadorsBakersfield, CAPK0.1 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′11″ · 174 lbNew / unverified
#9Saul MarksSan Francisco, CAPK0.1 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 160 lbNew / unverified
#37Hamish AdamsMelbourne, VICP0.1 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 202 lbNew / unverified
#35Jay BrockhausDeltona, FLP0.1 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 198 lbNew / unverified
#46Mike MelansonLas Vegas, NVP0.1 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′11″ · 182 lbNew / unverified
#47Caden SimBuckeye, AZLS0.1 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 200 lbNew / unverified
#48Kellan SuttonOrange, CALS0.1 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 201 lbNew / unverified
2026 schedule
The path that shapes the projection.
The model prices every scheduled game individually. Home field, neutral sites, completed results and opponent rating feed the expected-win total shown above.
WeekOpponentSiteDate / result
1Eastern MichiganConference · Rynearson Stadium · 4M 24–30 · 37% win
AwayAug 296:30 PM EDT · model ↗1
Mississippi Valley StateNon-conference · Hornet Stadium · 4M 18–34 · 82% win
HomeSep 510:00 PM EDT · model ↗2Fresno StateNon-conference · Valley Children's Stadium · 4M 20–31 · 28% win
AwaySep 1210:30 PM EDT · model ↗3
North Dakota StateNon-conference · Hornet Stadium · 4M 27–25 · 47% win
HomeSep 1910:30 PM EDT · model ↗4
MassachusettsConference · Hornet Stadium · 4M 20–31 · 73% win
HomeSep 2612:00 AM EDT · model ↗6
Bowling GreenConference · Doyt L. Perry Stadium · 4M 23–27 · 41% win
AwayOct 1012:00 AM EDT · model ↗7
OhioConference · Hornet Stadium · 4M 29–24 · 38% win
HomeOct 1712:00 AM EDT · model ↗8
Ball StateConference · Scheumann Stadium · 4M 25–25 · 52% win
AwayOct 2412:00 AM EDT · model ↗9
Kent StateConference · Hornet Stadium · 4M 25–27 · 55% win
HomeOct 3010:30 PM EDT · model ↗10
ToledoConference · Hornet Stadium · 4M 30–20 · 29% win
HomeNov 412:00 AM EST · model ↗11
Central MichiganConference · Kelly/Shorts Stadium · 4M 22–30 · 32% win
AwayNov 1112:00 AM EST · model ↗13
Hawai'iNon-conference · Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex · 4M 21–31 · 29% win
AwayNov 2811:00 PM EST · model ↗Range of outcomes
The projection is the middle—not the ceiling.
Floor case2 wins
Instability at premium positions turns swing games into losses.
4M midpoint4 wins
The roster performs close to its current power and schedule baseline.
Ceiling case6 wins
Quarterback play and line continuity outperform the preseason prior.
The betting lens
Price and matchup decide the play.
No team is an automatic bet or fade. The goal is to identify when the market's story about Sacramento State diverges from the football conditions required to cover.
The spread is large, the favorite plays slowly, and the game script allows Sacramento State to stay inside the number without chasing points.
The offense must play from behind, protect for long-yardage throws and generate explosives simply to reach the market expectation.
Whether the new personnel produces the role-specific answers described above—not merely whether the most recognizable names play.
Season-defining questionCan an aggressive roster build survive the depth demands of the MAC immediately?