The 2026 outlook
Will experienced line play and close-game execution create a MAC breakthrough?
UMass opens No. 138 nationally and No. 13 of 13 in the MAC. The 4M baseline rates the roster 27.0 points below an average FBS team on a neutral field and projects 2.5 regular-season wins.
UMass starts in the development tier. The preseason prior needs evidence before moving higher, but young or rebuilt teams can improve faster than the market adjusts. September performance matters more here than it does for an established contender.
Depth is the central concern. Transfers can raise the first unit quickly, but the two-deep has to hold up across twelve games. The first month should reveal whether the rebuild created real competition or simply moved uncertainty from one position group to another.
The schedule projects among the country's most manageable at No. 138. That creates upside in the win column, but also a pricing trap: the record can improve faster than the underlying team quality, inviting bettors to pay for results that came against limited resistance.
Personnel command center
Who is back, who arrived and who has to matter.
The roster is grouped by continuity because returning snaps and proven transfer production are more useful than raw headcount. “New / unverified” means the player did not match last season's roster or the incoming portal file—not that the player is necessarily a freshman.
Head coachJoe Harasymiak0–12 over the available CFBD career window
Staff continuityReturning head coachContinuity is treated as context, not an automatic upgrade.
Portal ledger21 in · 19 outImpact is weighted by rating, position and prior usage.
Position-group modelPremium roles separated.Fifty is FBS average. Quarterback includes the modeled starter probability, not merely the best name in the room.
4M player valueHighest-leverage rolesMaximum point value assumes the player is fully unavailable and is reduced by status probability.
PlayerPos.4M valueSizeContinuity
#16Logan InagawaPeachtree City, GAQB4.9 pts94% starter · 64% conf.5′11″ · 210 lbTransfer infrom Drake
#9Devin MatthewsSeguin, TXWR0.7 pts48% role · 64% conf.5′9″ · 200 lbTransfer infrom East Texas A&M
#79Aitor UrionabarrenecheaLancaster, CAOL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 350 lbTransfer infrom Colorado State
#78Greg KlingensmithApollo, PAOL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 325 lbTransfer infrom William & Mary
#66Greg Knox IIIAlexandria, LAOL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′6″ · 315 lbTransfer infrom McNeese
#0Jordan WashingtonHelena, ALRB0.5 pts57% role · 64% conf.6′1″ · 215 lbTransfer infrom Murray State
#42Andrew DepaepeBettendorf, IADL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 260 lbTransfer infrom Indiana
#10Aubrey MelvinBrandywine, MDDL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 325 lbTransfer infrom UConn
#9Justin KruegerMarietta, GADL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 270 lbTransfer infrom William & Mary
#98William DepaepeBettendorf, IADL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′6″ · 260 lbTransfer infrom Indiana
#17Zachary BettsBowie, MDDL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 250 lbTransfer infrom Saint Francis (PA)
#6Justin Williams-ThomasDallas, GARB0.5 pts46% role · 64% conf.6′0″ · 220 lbTransfer infrom Marshall
#1Joseph Griffin Jr.Springfield, MAWR0.5 pts41% role · 64% conf.6′4″ · 210 lbTransfer infrom Wisconsin
#0Isaiah ReedTampa, FLCB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 180 lbTransfer infrom UCF
#22Jahmad HarmonIndianapolis, INS0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 180 lbTransfer infrom Ball State
#6Joshua IseahCharlotte, NCLB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 240 lbTransfer infrom North Carolina A&T
#16Kendric CouncilUpper Marlboro, MDLB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 230 lbTransfer infrom Saint Francis (PA)
#15Khari BendolphBroward County, FLLB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 220 lbTransfer infrom Jacksonville State
#51Grant MillsMooresville, NCLS0.3 pts38% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 225 lbTransfer infrom Ohio State
#5William Watson IIISpringfield, MAQB0.2 pts4% starter · 64% conf.6′0″ · 210 lbTransfer infrom Virginia Tech
#2T.Y. HardingCambridge, MAWR0.8 pts59% role · 64% conf.5′9″ · 185 lbReturning
#11Max DowlingBuffalo, NYTE0.7 pts53% role · 64% conf.6′6″ · 260 lbReturning
#83Reece AdkinsLake Mary, FLTE0.7 pts48% role · 64% conf.6′6″ · 260 lbReturning
#3Elijah PedroUpper Marlboro, MDWR0.6 pts47% role · 64% conf.6′1″ · 190 lbReturning
#69Brock TaylorHanover, VAOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 350 lbReturning
#57Garrett CooperDelmar, DEOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′6″ · 315 lbReturning
#50Gavin WilsonGreenville, SCOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′6″ · 300 lbReturning
#77Jaxon KingPlacerville, CAOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′7″ · 315 lbReturning
#58Magnus Von SaldernBerlinOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 280 lbReturning
#64Peyton MillerWesternport, MDOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 330 lbReturning
#76Riley BlochNeedham, MAOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 310 lbReturning
#75Tanner BurlingameEndwell, NYOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 305 lbReturning
#73Zachary FranksBaltimore, MDOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′6″ · 310 lbReturning
#11Jerry WashingtonGoodyear, AZDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 255 lbReturning
#2Joshua NoblesCamden, NJDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 270 lbReturning
#34Payton AndradeWatertown, MADL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 240 lbReturning
#92Romando JohnsonLauderhill, FLDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 250 lbReturning
#90Tim Passmore Jr.Cocoa, FLDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 340 lbReturning
#86Jax MarkovichScottsdale, AZTE0.5 pts49% role · 64% conf.6′4″ · 250 lbReturning
#8Kezion Dia-JohnsonPhoenix, AZWR0.5 pts49% role · 64% conf.6′0″ · 185 lbReturning
#88John CondakesDedham, MATE0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 250 lbReturning
#18Matt OgunniyiSpringdale, MDTE0.5 pts49% role · 64% conf.6′5″ · 235 lbReturning
#87Owen AndersonSkillman, NJTE0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 260 lbReturning
#17Dallas ElliottNorthampton, MAWR0.5 pts49% role · 64% conf.6′3″ · 200 lbReturning
#23JC ClarkDayton, OHCB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 175 lbReturning
#13Raheim SexilBradenton, FLCB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 200 lbReturning
#7TJ MageeDenham Springs, LACB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 195 lbReturning
#25Anochie Azuakolam Jr.Dorchester, MAS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 185 lbReturning
#1DD SnyderTampa, FLS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 200 lbReturning
#14Jose TouronTaunton, MAS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 180 lbReturning
#20Keith SarkodiehWorcester, MAS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 195 lbReturning
#3Kendall BournesUnion, NJS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 205 lbReturning
#27Michael PangaroCheshire, CTS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 185 lbReturning
#38Zeraun DanielBrooklyn, NYS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 220 lbReturning
#36David TimsonBeverly, MALB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 225 lbReturning
#18Dinos DrossosTucson, AZLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 215 lbReturning
#44Timmy HinspeterMontgomery, NYLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 235 lbReturning
#5Tyler MartinActon, MALB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 240 lbReturning
#23Elijah FaulknerPittsburgh, PARB0.4 pts55% role · 76% conf.5′9″ · 195 lbReturning
#4Da'Marion AlbericWest Palm Beach, FLRB0.4 pts49% role · 64% conf.5′10″ · 190 lbReturning
#43Edward PhillipsonMelbourne, VICP0.3 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 220 lbReturning
#56James HortonWestport, CTLS0.3 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 215 lbReturning
#99Derek MorrisDayton, OHPK0.3 pts44% role · 52% conf.6′2″ · 205 lbReturning
#7Will PerryAndover, MAQB0.2 pts4% starter · 40% conf.6′2″ · 205 lbReturning
#63Aidan Canty-WhittConcord, MAOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 320 lbNew / unverified
#55Ben NoomeRedding, CTOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′9″ · 310 lbNew / unverified
#74Jake McGrathCharlestown, MAOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′6″ · 310 lbNew / unverified
#59Nick DalessandroChagrin Falls, OHOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 305 lbNew / unverified
#65Samu SuominenVaasaOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 330 lbNew / unverified
#67Will McNamaraColpy's Bay, ONOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′5″ · 285 lbNew / unverified
#26CJ AmobiUpper Darby, PADL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 245 lbNew / unverified
#94Colin ReynoldsWestford, MADL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 260 lbNew / unverified
#58Donovan MurphyGlenarden, MDDL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 255 lbNew / unverified
#95Hollis DirstineActon, MADL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 290 lbNew / unverified
#99Kamarion ThomasSaint Albans, NYDL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 295 lbNew / unverified
#97Robert EkinsButler, NJDL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 285 lbNew / unverified
#88Samuel MulbahHarrisburg, PADL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 265 lbNew / unverified
#55Zakar MorrisPoughkeepsie, NYDL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 300 lbNew / unverified
#12David Moore Jr.West Orange, NJWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′11″ · 180 lbNew / unverified
#85Drew AlsupGroveland, MAWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′9″ · 175 lbNew / unverified
#80Isaiah SimmonsBoston, MAWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′9″ · 175 lbNew / unverified
#19Jabari LewisMiami, FLWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′11″ · 190 lbNew / unverified
#21Kai OwensCarpentersville, ILWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 190 lbNew / unverified
#15Tavian DashiellSalisbury, MDWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 170 lbNew / unverified
#82Josh TrippNashua, NHTE0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 210 lbNew / unverified
#89Matthew TyborTolland, CTTE0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 260 lbNew / unverified
#28Ahkir MorganWest Orange, NJCB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′10″ · 185 lbNew / unverified
#4Chris StanleyAkron, OHCB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 185 lbNew / unverified
#12Corey WarnerLouisville, KYCB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′11″ · 195 lbNew / unverified
#21Terron JohnsonHarlem, NYCB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′11″ · 180 lbNew / unverified
#19David ChiavegatoFalmouth, MAS0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′11″ · 190 lbNew / unverified
#29Kareem PruittLansing, MIS0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 180 lbNew / unverified
#8Michael RobinsonMontclair, NJS0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′11″ · 200 lbNew / unverified
#24Ted MondesirHamilton, NJS0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 200 lbNew / unverified
#40Moritz StrempelCologneLB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 230 lbNew / unverified
#13Aedan McCarthyBluffton, SCQB0.2 pts4% starter · 28% conf.6′5″ · 230 lbNew / unverified
#10Ty McCutcheonHonolulu, HIQB0.2 pts4% starter · 28% conf.6′3″ · 200 lbNew / unverified
#14Curtis Kimmons IVOrlando, FLRB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′11″ · 230 lbNew / unverified
#33Justin LewisLos Angeles, CARB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′10″ · 200 lbNew / unverified
#20Ricardo LaboyBedford, MARB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′10″ · 185 lbNew / unverified
#22TK DavisWashington, DCRB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′10″ · 190 lbNew / unverified
#33Seamus McIntyreConcord, NHPK0.1 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 230 lbNew / unverified
#46Michael StreeterWerribee, SAP0.1 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 220 lbNew / unverified
2026 schedule
The path that shapes the projection.
The model prices every scheduled game individually. Home field, neutral sites, completed results and opponent rating feed the expected-win total shown above.
WeekOpponentSiteDate / result
1RutgersNon-conference · SHI Stadium · 4M 16–39 · 11% win
AwaySep 36:00 PM EDT · model ↗2
Sacred HeartNon-conference · Warren McGuirk Alumni Stadium · 4M 22–29 · 64% win
HomeSep 123:30 PM EDT · model ↗3StonehillNon-conference · Warren McGuirk Alumni Stadium · 4M 22–30 · 68% win
HomeSep 193:30 PM EDT · model ↗4Sacramento StateConference · Hornet Stadium · 4M 20–31 · 27% win
AwaySep 2612:00 AM EDT · model ↗5
Eastern MichiganConference · Warren McGuirk Alumni Stadium · 4M 32–22 · 29% win
HomeOct 312:00 AM EDT · model ↗6
Miami (OH)Conference · Warren McGuirk Alumni Stadium · 4M 33–18 · 20% win
HomeOct 1012:00 AM EDT · model ↗7
BuffaloConference · UB Stadium · 4M 19–30 · 26% win
AwayOct 1712:00 AM EDT · model ↗8
UConnNon-conference · Pratt & Whitney Stadium · 4M 18–36 · 15% win
AwayOct 237:00 PM EDT · model ↗10
Ball StateConference · Warren McGuirk Alumni Stadium · 4M 26–23 · 44% win
HomeNov 412:00 AM EST · model ↗11
ToledoConference · Glass Bowl · 4M 14–36 · 11% win
AwayNov 1112:00 AM EST · model ↗12
AkronConference · Warren McGuirk Alumni Stadium · 4M 28–23 · 38% win
HomeNov 1812:00 AM EST · model ↗13
Bowling GreenConference · Doyt L. Perry Stadium · 4M 19–31 · 25% win
AwayNov 2812:00 PM EST · model ↗
Range of outcomes
The projection is the middle—not the ceiling.
Floor case1 wins
Instability at premium positions turns swing games into losses.
4M midpoint3 wins
The roster performs close to its current power and schedule baseline.
Ceiling case5 wins
Quarterback play and line continuity outperform the preseason prior.
The betting lens
Price and matchup decide the play.
No team is an automatic bet or fade. The goal is to identify when the market's story about UMass diverges from the football conditions required to cover.
The spread is large, the favorite plays slowly, and the game script allows UMass to stay inside the number without chasing points.
The offense must play from behind, protect for long-yardage throws and generate explosives simply to reach the market expectation.
Quarterback efficiency, offensive-line cohesion and whether the defense can get off the field without blitzing itself out of structure.
Season-defining questionWill experienced line play and close-game execution create a MAC breakthrough?