The 2026 outlook
How quickly will this roster establish itself inside the rebuilt Pac-12 hierarchy?
Washington State opens No. 56 nationally and No. 3 of 8 in the Pac-12. The 4M baseline rates the roster 2.1 points above an average FBS team on a neutral field and projects 5.1 regular-season wins.
Washington State sits near the model's break-even line, where quarterback development and close-game execution matter more than brand. A bowl is attainable, but the margin is too thin to assume last year's record—or a splashy transfer class—will repeat without supporting efficiency.
There are enough playable pieces to compete, but the roster needs a dependable identity. Stable quarterback efficiency or an obvious line-of-scrimmage advantage would lift the ceiling. Portal additions matter only if their roles translate into protection, pressure or explosive-play creation.
The schedule grades No. 73 nationally—enough resistance to expose weaknesses without defining the entire year. A small group of swing games should determine whether Washington State beats its 5.1-win projection, placing extra value on special teams, fourth-down decisions and late-game quarterback play.
Personnel command center
Who is back, who arrived and who has to matter.
The roster is grouped by continuity because returning snaps and proven transfer production are more useful than raw headcount. “New / unverified” means the player did not match last season's roster or the incoming portal file—not that the player is necessarily a freshman.
Head coachKirby Moore0–0 over the available CFBD career window
Staff continuityNew head coachReplaces Jesse Bobbit
Portal ledger28 in · 41 outImpact is weighted by rating, position and prior usage.
Position-group modelPremium roles separated.Fifty is FBS average. Quarterback includes the modeled starter probability, not merely the best name in the room.
4M player valueHighest-leverage rolesMaximum point value assumes the player is fully unavailable and is reduced by status probability.
PlayerPos.4M valueSizeContinuity
#12Caden PinnickLoomis, CAQB5.5 pts94% starter · 64% conf.6′0″ · 192 lbTransfer infrom UC Davis
#88Jordan DeesMobile, ALWR0.7 pts49% role · 64% conf.6′4″ · 196 lbTransfer infrom West Georgia
#1Daniel BloodDestrehan, LAWR0.6 pts41% role · 64% conf.5′11″ · 190 lbTransfer infrom Missouri
#51Kalolo Ta'agaEast Palo Alto, CAOL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′7″ · 291 lbTransfer infrom Utah
#74Maximus McCreeKansas City, MOOL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′6″ · 291 lbTransfer infrom Washington
#94Eduwa OkundayeKaty, TXDE0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 234 lbTransfer infrom Arizona
#6Linus ZunkBerlinDE0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′6″ · 264 lbTransfer infrom Vanderbilt
#9Matyus McLainPriest River, IDDE0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 263 lbTransfer infrom Idaho
#95Balaam MillerBuffalo, NYDT0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 289 lbTransfer infrom Saint Francis (PA)
#34Damarjhe LewisGriffin, GADT0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 332 lbTransfer infrom SMU
#92Ike OkaforLagosDT0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 279 lbTransfer infrom California
#98Jirah LeaupepeteleApple Valley, CADT0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 349 lbTransfer infrom Eastern Washington
#99Paul Hutson IIINorfolk, VADT0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 258 lbTransfer infrom Marshall
#55Sione PasiHauula, HIDT0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 288 lbTransfer infrom Montana Western
#28Jack PedersenMurrieta, CATE0.5 pts43% role · 64% conf.6′5″ · 248 lbTransfer infrom UCLA
#4Darrius ClemonsPortland, ORWR0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 217 lbTransfer infrom Oregon State
#0CJ Solis-LumarLos Angeles, CACB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 197 lbTransfer infrom Cal Poly
#22Jalil TuckerSan Diego, CACB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 173 lbTransfer infrom Oregon State
#13Khamari TerrellKilleen, TXCB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 187 lbTransfer infrom Texas State
#25Jack BalPeoria, AZS0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 191 lbTransfer infrom Arizona State
#3Jaylen ThomasLos Gatos, CAS0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 190 lbTransfer infrom San José State
#1Jeremiah BernardModesto, CAS0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 196 lbTransfer infrom Cal Poly
#17Jshawn Frausto-RamosEast Los Angeles, CAS0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 183 lbTransfer infrom Arizona
#10Tank HawkinsFredericksburg, VAWR0.4 pts41% role · 64% conf.5′10″ · 180 lbTransfer infrom Florida
#15DJ WarnerPhoenix, AZLB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 233 lbTransfer infrom SMU
#8Nylan BrownIndianapolis, INLB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 246 lbTransfer infrom Kent State
#32Max DeanGisbourne, VICP0.3 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 205 lbTransfer infrom New Mexico State
#0Tony FreemanRichmond, CAWR0.8 pts59% role · 64% conf.5′8″ · 174 lbReturning
#23Trey LecknerSnohomish, WATE0.7 pts50% role · 64% conf.6′3″ · 243 lbReturning
#9Kirby VorheesLutz, FLRB0.7 pts77% role · 76% conf.5′11″ · 215 lbReturning
#86Beau BakerSpringfield, KYTE0.6 pts47% role · 64% conf.6′6″ · 251 lbReturning
#8Branden GanashamoorthyMonroe, WAWR0.6 pts49% role · 64% conf.6′3″ · 199 lbReturning
#73AJ OlerichAsotin, WAOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′6″ · 278 lbReturning
#55Arion WilliamsFontana, CAOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 283 lbReturning
#71Ashton TrippKennewick, WAOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′7″ · 307 lbReturning
#68Chris LinoSeattle, WAOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′8″ · 316 lbReturning
#70Dylan HildebrandVerona, WIOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 301 lbReturning
#76Grayson CampbellLynnwood, WAOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 291 lbReturning
#64Jaylin CaldwellChicago, ILOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′7″ · 332 lbReturning
#67Jonny LesterSpokane, WAOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 318 lbReturning
#78Jorden CunninghamPhoenix, AZOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 298 lbReturning
#69Kyle MartinSumner, WAOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 310 lbReturning
#77Nick BakkenWhitefish Bay, WIOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 305 lbReturning
#75Noah DunhamYuba City, CAOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 292 lbReturning
#50Sone FalealoAnchorage, AKOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′6″ · 287 lbReturning
#79Turner BertrandKearney, NEOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′7″ · 308 lbReturning
#54Xavier ThorpeLivermore, CAOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 313 lbReturning
#18Barry MorrissetteBellevue, WADE0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′7″ · 261 lbReturning
#51Ben BeattyPark City, UTDE0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 265 lbReturning
#56Fernando LecuonaOmaha, NEDE0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 252 lbReturning
#96Jack ProcterPoint Roberts, WADE0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 243 lbReturning
#97Josh WedelChaska, MNDE0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 272 lbReturning
#44Luke WebbHuntington Beach, CADE0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 242 lbReturning
#84Malachi WriceMcalester, OKDE0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 248 lbReturning
#5Michael HughesSanta Ana, CADE0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 241 lbReturning
#52Kaden BeattyChesapeake, VADT0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 287 lbReturning
#58Malijah TuckerTumwater, WADT0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 273 lbReturning
#80Noah WestbrookCorona, CAWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 216 lbReturning
#87Cash LandauPortland, ORTE0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 236 lbReturning
#81Peyton ReadPortland, ORTE0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′6″ · 237 lbReturning
#3Maxwell WoodsCarver, MNRB0.5 pts58% role · 76% conf.5′10″ · 201 lbReturning
#23Ishmael GibbsLos Angeles, CACB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 165 lbReturning
#2Jamarey SmithSanta Clarita, CACB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 190 lbReturning
#4Kai RapollaWinchester, CACB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 185 lbReturning
#20Gaylon McNealFort Worth, TXS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 184 lbReturning
#19Kayo PatuSacramento, CAS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 188 lbReturning
#28Kyle PetersonPearland, TXS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 198 lbReturning
#31Trey RidleyOverland Park, KSS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 194 lbReturning
#27Hudson CedarlandGig Harbor, WATE0.4 pts46% role · 64% conf.6′4″ · 239 lbReturning
#12Carsten ReynoldsBurlington, WALB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 228 lbReturning
#29Erimus WrightHazel Crest, ILLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 215 lbReturning
#33Gage JonesEagle, IDLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 227 lbReturning
#59Gavin FugateChehalis, WALB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 233 lbReturning
#16Isaiah HungLiberty, MOLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 229 lbReturning
#42Jack EllisonOlympia, WALB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 230 lbReturning
#21Keith BrownLebanon, ORLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 244 lbReturning
#20Leo PulalasiTacoma, WARB0.4 pts54% role · 76% conf.6′1″ · 208 lbReturning
#38Jack StevensNorth Augusta, SCPK0.3 pts44% role · 52% conf.6′0″ · 164 lbReturning
#41Sean BuresLacey, WALS0.3 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 215 lbReturning
#2Julian DuggerPittsburgh, PAQB0.2 pts4% starter · 64% conf.6′3″ · 207 lbReturning
#17Owen EshelmanNorman, OKQB0.2 pts4% starter · 40% conf.6′3″ · 204 lbReturning
#72Gabe MillerPalo Cedro, CAOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 302 lbNew / unverified
#90Akio MartinsonLoomis, CADT0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 304 lbNew / unverified
#93JaVon JosephSacramento, CADL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 255 lbNew / unverified
#84Caleb NorthcroftPullman, WAWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 199 lbNew / unverified
#83Ethan MastellerGillette, WYWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′5″ · 218 lbNew / unverified
#89Isaiah DockenSpokane, WAWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′5″ · 219 lbNew / unverified
#6Jay PorterOceanside, CAWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 183 lbNew / unverified
#18Jevon WalkerLancaster, CAWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 193 lbNew / unverified
#82Oliver BenderNolensville, TNWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 203 lbNew / unverified
#13Ryan McKendryBrentwood, CAWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 198 lbNew / unverified
#24Elmo WartsonModesto, CACB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 180 lbNew / unverified
#35Nick NorrahBellevue, WACB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 199 lbNew / unverified
#30Bryson FlynnPearland, TXS0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 204 lbNew / unverified
#26Chris Perry Jr.Fresno, CADB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 175 lbNew / unverified
#36Kenny Miller-TerryPrescott, AZDB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′11″ · 180 lbNew / unverified
#10Lance McGeeYakima, WALB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 218 lbNew / unverified
#16Gavin GrayAgoura Hills, CAQB0.2 pts4% starter · 28% conf.6′3″ · 193 lbNew / unverified
#21CJ ToneyHumble, TXRB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′8″ · 200 lbNew / unverified
#25Marquez WimberlyNazareth, PARB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′9″ · 186 lbNew / unverified
#24Ryan SalcedoLos Angeles, CARB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′9″ · 193 lbNew / unverified
#22Tre Hill Jr.Katy, TXRB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′10″ · 203 lbNew / unverified
#46Miguel ArenasFlower Mound, TXPK0.1 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 206 lbNew / unverified
#48Josh LijesenDublin, CAP0.1 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 231 lbNew / unverified
#47Jeremy SousaPleasanton, CALS0.1 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 212 lbNew / unverified
2026 schedule
The path that shapes the projection.
The model prices every scheduled game individually. Home field, neutral sites, completed results and opponent rating feed the expected-win total shown above.
WeekOpponentSiteDate / result
1WashingtonNon-conference · Husky Stadium · 4M 20–31 · 28% win
AwaySep 64:00 PM EDT · model ↗2
Kansas StateNon-conference · Bill Snyder Family Stadium · 4M 22–29 · 35% win
AwaySep 1212:00 PM EDT · model ↗3
DuquesneNon-conference · Gesa Field · 4M 12–40 · 94% win
HomeSep 193:30 PM EDT · model ↗4ArizonaNon-conference · Gesa Field · 4M 26–24 · 45% win
HomeSep 267:30 PM EDT · model ↗5
Fresno StateConference · Gesa Field · 4M 22–29 · 65% win
HomeOct 39:30 PM EDT · model ↗6
Utah StateConference · Maverik Stadium · 4M 27–24 · 57% win
AwayOct 99:00 PM EDT · model ↗7
Oregon StateConference · Reser Stadium · 4M 29–22 · 65% win
AwayOct 176:00 PM EDT · model ↗8
Boise StateConference · Gesa Field · 4M 25–26 · 53% win
HomeOct 246:00 PM EDT · model ↗9
San Diego StateConference · Snapdragon Stadium · 4M 23–26 · 44% win
AwayOct 317:00 PM EDT · model ↗11
Colorado StateConference · Gesa Field · 4M 20–33 · 76% win
HomeNov 1410:30 PM EST · model ↗12
Texas StateConference · Bobcat Stadium (TX) · 4M 26–28 · 45% win
AwayNov 216:00 PM EST · model ↗
Range of outcomes
The projection is the middle—not the ceiling.
Floor case3 wins
Instability at premium positions turns swing games into losses.
4M midpoint5 wins
The roster performs close to its current power and schedule baseline.
Ceiling case7 wins
Quarterback play and line continuity outperform the preseason prior.
The betting lens
Price and matchup decide the play.
No team is an automatic bet or fade. The goal is to identify when the market's story about Washington State diverges from the football conditions required to cover.
The number is below a full possession and Washington State's best unit attacks a verified opponent weakness.
The offense must play from behind, protect for long-yardage throws and generate explosives simply to reach the market expectation.
Early-down success rate, pressure allowed and defensive explosive-play rate. Two stable categories would justify an upgrade.
Season-defining questionHow quickly will this roster establish itself inside the rebuilt Pac-12 hierarchy?