The 2026 outlook
Can this team separate in the country's most compressed conference race?
UCF opens No. 73 nationally and No. 13 of 16 in the Big 12. The 4M baseline rates the roster 1.3 points below an average FBS team on a neutral field and projects 4.9 regular-season wins.
UCF profiles as competitive but opponent-sensitive. It can win when the matchup protects its weak points, yet it does not have enough week-to-week talent separation to survive poor early-down offense, lost field position and a negative turnover margin at the same time.
Depth is the central concern. Transfers can raise the first unit quickly, but the two-deep has to hold up across twelve games. The first month should reveal whether the rebuild created real competition or simply moved uncertainty from one position group to another.
The schedule grades No. 63 nationally—enough resistance to expose weaknesses without defining the entire year. A small group of swing games should determine whether UCF beats its 4.9-win projection, placing extra value on special teams, fourth-down decisions and late-game quarterback play.
Personnel command center
Who is back, who arrived and who has to matter.
The roster is grouped by continuity because returning snaps and proven transfer production are more useful than raw headcount. “New / unverified” means the player did not match last season's roster or the incoming portal file—not that the player is necessarily a freshman.
Head coachScott Frost9–18 over the available CFBD career window
Staff continuityReturning head coachContinuity is treated as context, not an automatic upgrade.
Portal ledger32 in · 35 outImpact is weighted by rating, position and prior usage.
Position-group modelPremium roles separated.Fifty is FBS average. Quarterback includes the modeled starter probability, not merely the best name in the room.
4M player valueHighest-leverage rolesMaximum point value assumes the player is fully unavailable and is reduced by status probability.
PlayerPos.4M valueSizeContinuity
#14Alonza Barnett IIIWhitsett, NCQB2.7 pts52% starter · 76% conf.5′11″ · 210 lbTransfer infrom James Madison
#12Keyone JenkinsOpa Locka, FLQB2.3 pts47% starter · 76% conf.6′0″ · 200 lbTransfer infrom Florida International
#11Landen ChambersFort Worth, TXRB0.9 pts88% role · 64% conf.5′11″ · 215 lbTransfer infrom Central Arkansas
#5Josh DerryBaltimore, MDWR0.8 pts56% role · 64% conf.5′9″ · 182 lbTransfer infrom Monmouth
#3Jonathan BibbsBirmingham, ALWR0.7 pts51% role · 64% conf.6′1″ · 180 lbTransfer infrom UL Monroe
#66Brady WayburnGastonia, NCOL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 305 lbTransfer infrom UConn
#54Cooper TerpstraHolland, MIOL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 305 lbTransfer infrom Michigan State
#73Henry TabansiStaten Island, NYOL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 306 lbTransfer infrom Buffalo
#75Tyler GibsonAtlanta, GAOL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 308 lbTransfer infrom Charlotte
#41Bruno DallHamburgEDGE0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′7″ · 260 lbTransfer infrom Akron
#11Ken TalleyPhiladelphia, PAEDGE0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 260 lbTransfer infrom Arkansas
#94LA Jessie HarroldTampa, FLEDGE0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 260 lbTransfer infrom Florida State
#42Artavius JonesBlountstown, FLDT0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 325 lbTransfer infrom Miami
#93Brad Gurley Jr.Bowling Green, KYDT0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 300 lbTransfer infrom Eastern Kentucky
#97Josh SchellMount Pleasant, MIDT0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 300 lbTransfer infrom Tennessee
#99Thomas CollinsGothenburgDT0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 295 lbTransfer infrom Oregon State
#26Duke WatsonForsyth, GARB0.4 pts58% role · 76% conf.5′11″ · 185 lbTransfer infrom Louisville
#88Grayson BrousseauLehi, UTTE0.4 pts43% role · 64% conf.6′5″ · 245 lbTransfer infrom Oklahoma State
#18Caleb FlaggHouston, TXDB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 200 lbTransfer infrom Missouri
#17Jailen DuffieWaukegan, ILDB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 175 lbTransfer infrom North Dakota State
#14Kahmel JohnsonJacksonville, FLDB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 200 lbTransfer infrom Wayne State College
#28Matt IrwinMeridian, IDDB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 180 lbTransfer infrom Idaho
#21Ty BartrumPomeroy, OHDB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 205 lbTransfer infrom Harvard
#34Jahleel CulbreathVirginia Beach, VALB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 222 lbTransfer infrom Old Dominion
#19Rashad HenryMiami, FLLB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 220 lbTransfer infrom Massachusetts
#24Tackett CurtisMany, LALB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 230 lbTransfer infrom Wisconsin
#15Will StoneAustin, TXPK0.3 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 195 lbTransfer infrom Texas
#49Atticus BertramsSydney, NSWP0.3 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 235 lbTransfer infrom Wisconsin
#43Kyle HicksNashville, TNLS0.3 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 235 lbTransfer infrom Tennessee State
#10Kaleb AnnettNewport Beach, CAQB0.2 pts4% starter · 40% conf.6′3″ · 200 lbTransfer infrom Boise State
#7Duane Thomas Jr.Miami Gardens, FLWR0.8 pts62% role · 64% conf.5′8″ · 175 lbReturning
#0Dylan WadeOrlando, FLTE0.7 pts57% role · 64% conf.6′2″ · 240 lbReturning
#9Waden CharlesBoynton Beach, FLWR0.7 pts55% role · 64% conf.6′2″ · 195 lbReturning
#84Thomas WadsworthMelbourne, FLTE0.7 pts47% role · 64% conf.6′3″ · 245 lbReturning
#13Caleb RollersonOcala, FLWR0.6 pts47% role · 64% conf.6′2″ · 210 lbReturning
#57Camp LottMccomb, MSOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′6″ · 265 lbReturning
#58Connor MeadowsTrenton, TNOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 300 lbReturning
#72Dominick CampbellScarborough, MEOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′9″ · 310 lbReturning
#68Ethan HigginsBrooksville, FLOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′6″ · 270 lbReturning
#55Jacob MaiavaKahuku, HIOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 280 lbReturning
#76Justin RoyesSuffolk, VAOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 300 lbReturning
#53LaParka LangstonAtlanta, GAOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′7″ · 285 lbReturning
#74Matthew PrigmoreWeston, FLOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 315 lbReturning
#67Noah SenkaSeminole, FLOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 295 lbReturning
#61Owen SpellJesup, GAOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′8″ · 305 lbReturning
#78Preston CushmanSt. Petersburg, FLOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 305 lbReturning
#70RaiShaun McHaneyIndianapolis, INOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′8″ · 270 lbReturning
#96Anthony CoaxumFort Lauderdale, FLEDGE0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 270 lbReturning
#12Aymeric KoumbaBordeauxEDGE0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 245 lbReturning
#6Isaiah NixonSaint Petersburg, FLEDGE0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 245 lbReturning
#45Quentin HatchOrlando, FLEDGE0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 225 lbReturning
#10Sincere EdwardsOrlando, FLEDGE0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 250 lbReturning
#0Horace LockettAtlanta, GADT0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′6″ · 355 lbReturning
#92Jeffson LafontantNorth Miami Beach, FLDT0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 295 lbReturning
#95RJ Jackson Jr.Choctaw, OKDT0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 310 lbReturning
#54Trenton TurnerLakeland, FLDT0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 320 lbReturning
#35Agyeman AddaeMiami, FLRB0.5 pts53% role · 64% conf.5′10″ · 190 lbReturning
#39Andrea ParisiBergamoWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 195 lbReturning
#85Carson HinshawLake Mary, FLWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 165 lbReturning
#86Chase HinshawLake Mary, FLWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 175 lbReturning
#82Jordyn BridgewaterWinter Garden, FLWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 165 lbReturning
#6Ric'Darious FarmerMelbourne, FLWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 160 lbReturning
#81Zack PalmerOrlando, FLWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 190 lbReturning
#18Caden PieningCincinnati, OHTE0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 245 lbReturning
#7Antione JacksonLauderhill, FLDB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 185 lbReturning
#4Braeden MarshallLake Mary, FLDB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 200 lbReturning
#8Demari HendersonSanford, FLDB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 185 lbReturning
#5DJ BellPensacola, FLDB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 185 lbReturning
#49Donnell Johnson IIIHometown not listedDB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.— · 180 lbReturning
#1Jayden BellamyFreehold, NJDB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 190 lbReturning
#2Jayden WilliamsValrico, FLDB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 190 lbReturning
#27Nicholas AntoineDaytona Beach, FLDB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 205 lbReturning
#25Rukeem StroudPlant City, FLDB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 165 lbReturning
#38Jayden JenningsSalem, VALB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 235 lbReturning
#20Lewis CarterTampa, FLLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 225 lbReturning
#33Phil PicciottiPerkasie, PALB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 230 lbReturning
#42Chance NixonOviedo, FLRB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′9″ · 179 lbReturning
#4Taevion SwintKissimmee, FLRB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 185 lbReturning
#97Mason DenaburgMerritt Island, FLPK0.3 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 225 lbReturning
#31Noah McGoughDallas, TXPK0.3 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 175 lbReturning
#37Rocklyn KelleyDenton, TXLS0.3 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 225 lbReturning
#83Dylan BurkMelbourne, FLTE0.3 pts26% role · 52% conf.6′7″ · 255 lbNew / unverified
#71Amahn WilliamsRandolph, MAOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 280 lbNew / unverified
#79Daniel MarcellinusAbiaOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′11″ · 275 lbNew / unverified
#77Kasiyah CharltonBrunswick, GAOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′7″ · 315 lbNew / unverified
#98Alhassan IddrissuOakdale, CTEDGE0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′6″ · 250 lbNew / unverified
#56Patrick RyanLake Mary, FLEDGE0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 220 lbNew / unverified
#90Mujahid JeffersonOrlando, FLDT0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 280 lbNew / unverified
#55Noah MercerKey West, FLDT0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′5″ · 290 lbNew / unverified
#80Elijah HardyMiami, FLWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 180 lbNew / unverified
#23Jordan NunuhaNanakuli, HIWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 195 lbNew / unverified
#2Tyren HornesBradenton, FLWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 175 lbNew / unverified
#87Brooks HallPlatte City, MOTE0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′5″ · 225 lbNew / unverified
#47Sam PowellNaples, FLTE0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 205 lbNew / unverified
#22Amarion QueenStuart, FLDB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 185 lbNew / unverified
#16Antonio Branch Jr.Miami, FLDB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 175 lbNew / unverified
#26Elijah KeysJacksonville, FLDB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 180 lbNew / unverified
#30Otis HardyOrlando, FLDB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 180 lbNew / unverified
#29Tyce PorcherWest Palm Beach, FLDB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 190 lbNew / unverified
#47Arthur KingdomLeicestershireLB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 230 lbNew / unverified
#36Dylan BennettWest Palm Beach, FLLB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′11″ · 210 lbNew / unverified
#23Jayden BurnettSarasota, FLLB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 210 lbNew / unverified
#32Matthew OcchipintiSaddle Brook, NJLB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 235 lbNew / unverified
#15Preston HallMissouri City, TXLB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 220 lbNew / unverified
#16Dante CarrMinersville, PAQB0.2 pts4% starter · 28% conf.6′4″ · 220 lbNew / unverified
#8Rocco MarriottKansas City, MOQB0.2 pts4% starter · 28% conf.6′4″ · 220 lbNew / unverified
#24Arthur Lewis IVPalatka, FLRB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′10″ · 180 lbNew / unverified
#20Kaj BakerMiami, FLRB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′8″ · 160 lbNew / unverified
2026 schedule
The path that shapes the projection.
The model prices every scheduled game individually. Home field, neutral sites, completed results and opponent rating feed the expected-win total shown above.
WeekOpponentSiteDate / result
1Bethune-CookmanNon-conference · FBC Mortgage Stadium · 4M 12–39 · 94% win
HomeSep 37:00 PM EDT · model ↗2PittsburghNon-conference · Acrisure Stadium · 4M 21–29 · 32% win
AwaySep 123:30 PM EDT · model ↗3
Georgia StateNon-conference · FBC Mortgage Stadium · 4M 19–32 · 76% win
HomeSep 197:00 PM EDT · model ↗4
TCUConference · FBC Mortgage Stadium · 4M 28–24 · 41% win
HomeSep 2612:00 AM EDT · model ↗5
HoustonConference · TDECU Stadium · 4M 22–29 · 34% win
AwayOct 312:00 AM EDT · model ↗6
Oklahoma StateConference · Boone Pickens Stadium · 4M 26–25 · 52% win
AwayOct 1012:00 AM EDT · model ↗8
BYUConference · FBC Mortgage Stadium · 4M 29–22 · 35% win
HomeOct 2412:00 AM EDT · model ↗9
BaylorConference · FBC Mortgage Stadium · 4M 27–26 · 47% win
HomeOct 307:30 PM EDT · model ↗10
KansasConference · Memorial Stadium · 4M 23–30 · 36% win
AwayNov 712:00 AM EST · model ↗11
Arizona StateConference · FBC Mortgage Stadium · 4M 26–24 · 44% win
HomeNov 1412:00 AM EST · model ↗12
Iowa StateConference · FBC Mortgage Stadium · 4M 26–25 · 49% win
HomeNov 206:00 PM EST · model ↗13
ColoradoConference · Folsom Field · 4M 25–27 · 46% win
AwayNov 2812:00 AM EST · model ↗
Range of outcomes
The projection is the middle—not the ceiling.
Floor case3 wins
Instability at premium positions turns swing games into losses.
4M midpoint5 wins
The roster performs close to its current power and schedule baseline.
Ceiling case7 wins
Quarterback play and line continuity outperform the preseason prior.
The betting lens
Price and matchup decide the play.
No team is an automatic bet or fade. The goal is to identify when the market's story about UCF diverges from the football conditions required to cover.
The spread is large, the favorite plays slowly, and the game script allows UCF to stay inside the number without chasing points.
The offense must play from behind, protect for long-yardage throws and generate explosives simply to reach the market expectation.
Quarterback efficiency, offensive-line cohesion and whether the defense can get off the field without blitzing itself out of structure.
Season-defining questionCan this team separate in the country's most compressed conference race?