4th & Money Saturday desk ↗
SCORES
Loading the current slate…
All scores ↗
← Current week Game Center
AwayMichiganNo. 18 · +13.4
4M projection
Away19–Home32
Home -13.778% win
HomeOhio StateNo. 1 · +27.8
Week 13Saturday, November 28 at 12:00 PM ESTFOXOhio Stadium7-day forecast pending
FanDuel marketOhio State -11.5 · O/U 45.5Details
Live sportsbookFanDuelUpdated Sep 5, 10:57 AM ET
SpreadOhio State -11.5 -120Michigan +11.5 -102
TotalOver 45.5 -110Under 45.5 -110
MoneylineOhio State -530Michigan +390
OpeningOhio State -11.5O/U 45.5 · No spread move
Model lean
Over 45.5 is the current model lean.

4M projects Ohio State 32 · Michigan 19 while FanDuel lists Ohio State -11.5. That creates 2.2 points of difference toward Ohio State.

See the betting translation ↓
10-second readLatest updateNo material market, weather or availability alert in the current snapshot. · Sep 5, 10:57 AM ET
Projected result
Ohio State 32–19

Ohio State has a 78% win chance in a clear edge matchup.

Key matchup
Ohio State · Defensive matchup

Opponent-adjusted prevention and disruption is the clearest advantage supporting the projection.

Biggest concernTurnovers and explosive plays can flip it.

Michigan needs short fields or a possession advantage to break the expected script.

Game shapeClear edge
Expected styleAverage pace · Average-scoring
Projected pace12.0 possessions per team
Forecast snapshotOhio State leads the modelClear edge · Average pace
4M fair lineOhio State -13.7
Projected total50.7
Ohio State win78%
Projection confidence89%
Michigan22% win
Ohio State78% win

How the game projects

Ohio State owns the median outcome. Michigan needs the game to bend.

Why Ohio State winsTurn the defensive matchup edge into repeatable downs.

Opponent-adjusted prevention and disruption. Protect the football and make that advantage show up across full drives instead of isolated plays.

How Michigan winsCreate a shorter, higher-variance game.

Generate short fields, win explosive plays and force the favorite to finish difficult drives.

Read the full projection +

The model makes Ohio State the neutral-field leader after blending opponent-adjusted efficiency, predictive ratings, roster quality, returning production, portal impact and special teams. The complete environment contributes +2.4 points toward the home-team margin. The median score is Ohio State 32 · Michigan 19, with roughly 12.0 possessions per team.

This is a distribution, not a promise. Ohio State wins 78% of the outcome curve; the remaining probability captures turnovers, finishing-drive variance, injuries and early-season uncertainty.

Watch earlyThe opening signals that matter most
01Ohio State · Defensive matchup

Does the strongest model advantage appear on the opening possessions?

02Average pace

12.0 possessions per team is the scoring baseline.

03Michigan · hidden possessions

Turnovers, short fields and explosive plays are the clearest upset path.

Why the model likes it

The matchup engine, from highlights to detail.

01 · Defensive matchup
Ohio State
+34.6 indexOpponent-adjusted prevention and disruption
02 · Quarterback
Ohio State
+27.2 indexStarter probability, production and continuity
03 · Player value
Ohio State
+17.5 indexRole-weighted returning and transfer production
Explore the matchup

Open only the part you want. Every figure is a matchup index—not a projected point adjustment.

Offense vs. defenseEfficiency, explosives and coverageOhio State leads
Offensive efficiencyOhio State

Expected scoring efficiency and early-down leverage across the two offenses.

+7.8 indexHigh confidence
MOSU
Defensive resistanceOhio State

Opponent-adjusted prevention, disruption and finishing-drive defense.

+34.6 indexHigh confidence
MOSU
ReceiversOhio State

Pass-game production, returning usage and depth against the opposing coverage unit.

+18.5 indexHigh confidence
MOSU
SecondaryOhio State

Coverage experience and play prevention against the opposing passing attack.

0.0 indexHigh confidence
MOSU
Quarterback & personnelThe players most capable of moving the numberOhio State leads
QuarterbackOhio State

Starter probability, proven production, continuity and transfer translation.

+27.2 indexHigh confidence
MOSU
Player valueOhio State

Role-weighted returning production and incoming transfer contribution.

+17.5 indexHigh confidence
MOSU
Roster qualityOhio State

Recruiting baseline, usable depth and talent concentration at premium positions.

+7.9 indexHigh confidence
MOSU
Line of scrimmageProtection, disruption and field positionOhio State leads
Offensive lineOhio State

Returning line usage, protection stability and the ability to avoid negative plays.

0.0 indexHigh confidence
MOSU
Defensive frontOhio State

Pressure, havoc and run disruption without needing extra defenders.

0.0 indexHigh confidence
MOSU
Special teamsOhio State

Kicking, field position and hidden-yardage efficiency.

+8.4 indexHigh confidence
MOSU
EnvironmentHome field, travel, weather and availabilityOhio State leads
Home environmentOhio State

Ohio State's learned home baseline, venue history, capacity and altitude at Ohio Stadium.

+2.4 indexHigh confidence
MOSU
Travel & body clockOhio State

Relative trip distance, time-zone change and local kickoff timing.

+0.1 indexHigh confidence
MOSU
RestOhio State

Difference in recovery time entering the game.

0.0 indexHigh confidence
MOSU
AvailabilityOhio State

Verified injury and availability reports applied as a live overlay.

0.0 indexHigh confidence
MOSU
How 4M built the fair lineOhio State -13.7View the number bridge +
Neutral marginOhio State +11.2Team strength before location
Base home field+2.0National home baseline
Venue + altitude+0.4Learned history, capacity and elevation
Travel + body clock+0.1Relative trip and kickoff timing
Rest0.0Days-between-games difference
Live availability0.0Verified personnel overlay

The location calculation combines the learned national baseline with venue and conference history, capacity, altitude, travel, body clock and rest. The archived team ratings remain neutral-field numbers.

Personnel file

Continuity, transfers and the people who can move the number.

MichiganKyle Whittingham · new staff
69 returners17 additions32 departures
Top modeled impact
  1. Bryce UnderwoodQB · Returning3.1
  2. Brayden Fowler-NicolosiQB · Transfer in from Colorado State2.1
  3. Andrew MarshWR · Returning0.8
Full team dossier →
Ohio StateRyan Day
60 returners17 additions37 departures
Top modeled impact
  1. Julian SayinQB · Returning5.4
  2. Jeremiah SmithWR · Returning0.9
  3. Devin McCuinWR · Transfer in from UTSA0.8
Full team dossier →

Market translation

Over 45.5.

Model leanOver 45.5 is the current model lean.

A model direction, not an official tracked wager.

Current price · FanDuelOhio State -11.5O/U 45.5
4M fair lineOhio State -13.7Projected total 50.7
Current difference2.2 ptsOhio State side
Bet thresholdOver 47.7 or lower5.0-point side requirement
Primary riskVariance beats the baselineTurnovers, explosive plays and late availability
Model vs. market detailsSee the calculation, audits and pregame line movement+
Independent line comparison2.2-point difference
Market-11.54M-13.7
Ohio State sideMichigan side

The 4M line remains independent. A difference becomes actionable only when it clears the required edge and the availability, weather and disagreement audits.

What needs to happen: the projected unit advantages must survive first down and the turnover margin must stay near even. After kickoff, both the model and market comparison stay frozen.

FanDuel pregame movement61 stored snapshots
  1. -11.5O/U 45.5
  2. -11.5O/U 45.5
  3. -11.5O/U 45.5
  4. -11.5O/U 45.5
  5. -11.5O/U 45.5
  6. -11.5O/U 45.5
  7. -11.5O/U 45.5
  8. -11.5O/U 45.5

Schedule context

What comes immediately before and after this matchup.