The 2026 outlook
Will line play and quarterback consistency survive the Big Ten's deepest tier of contenders?
Michigan opens No. 18 nationally and No. 7 of 18 in the Big Ten. The 4M baseline rates the roster 13.4 points above an average FBS team on a neutral field and projects 7 regular-season wins.
Michigan has a credible playoff profile, but not enough separation to absorb repeated mistakes. Its best version can win a high-level matchup; the question is whether that version appears often enough to navigate the conference race without spending the playoff margin for error too early.
The roster grades comfortably above the national average. The personnel question is not whether there is talent; it is whether new starters can inherit the high-leverage jobs—quarterback decisions, pass protection, third-down coverage and pass-rush production—without an early efficiency drop.
The schedule is a defining variable: it projects No. 13 nationally, with No. 1 representing the hardest slate. Michigan can play good football and still finish below public expectations if it loses the possession battles in its highest-leverage games. This is why the 7-win projection may look conservative relative to the power rating.
Personnel command center
Who is back, who arrived and who has to matter.
The roster is grouped by continuity because returning snaps and proven transfer production are more useful than raw headcount. “New / unverified” means the player did not match last season's roster or the incoming portal file—not that the player is necessarily a freshman.
Head coachKyle Whittingham43–22 over the available CFBD career window
Staff continuityNew head coachReplaces Sherrone Moore
Portal ledger17 in · 32 outImpact is weighted by rating, position and prior usage.
Position-group modelPremium roles separated.Fifty is FBS average. Quarterback includes the modeled starter probability, not merely the best name in the room.
4M player valueHighest-leverage rolesMaximum point value assumes the player is fully unavailable and is reduced by status probability.
PlayerPos.4M valueSizeContinuity
#16Brayden Fowler-NicolosiAledo, TXQB2.1 pts39% starter · 76% conf.6′3″ · 212 lbTransfer infrom Colorado State
#6JJ BuchananHenderson, NVWR0.7 pts47% role · 64% conf.6′3″ · 225 lbTransfer infrom Utah
#67Houston Ka'aha'aina-TorresWaimanalo, HIOL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 300 lbTransfer infrom Nebraska
#90John Henry DaleyAlpine, UTDE0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 255 lbTransfer infrom Utah
#91Jonah Lea'eaSan Mateo, CADT0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 285 lbTransfer infrom Utah
#10Jaime FfrenchJacksonville, FLWR0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 185 lbTransfer infrom Texas
#12Salesi MoaOgden, UTWR0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 175 lbTransfer infrom Utah
#3Smith SnowdenLehi, UTCB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 185 lbTransfer infrom Utah
#7Chris BracyMobile, ALS0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 195 lbTransfer infrom Memphis
#13Aisea MoaNorth Ogden, UTLB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 238 lbTransfer infrom Michigan State
#52Christian PierceChicago, ILLB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 235 lbTransfer infrom Michigan
#30Max AlfordPark City, UTLB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 230 lbTransfer infrom BYU
#44Nathaniel StaehlingBaxter, MNLB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 238 lbTransfer infrom North Dakota State
#99Trey ButkowskiOrlando, FLPK0.3 pts38% role · 52% conf.6′0″ · 170 lbTransfer infrom Pittsburgh
#19Bryce UnderwoodDetroit, MIQB3.1 pts61% starter · 76% conf.6′4″ · 228 lbReturning
#3Andrew MarshFulshear, TXWR0.8 pts59% role · 64% conf.6′0″ · 190 lbReturning
#23Jordan MarshallWest Chester, OHRB0.7 pts81% role · 76% conf.5′11″ · 216 lbReturning
#83Zack MarshallSolana Beach, CATE0.7 pts51% role · 64% conf.6′4″ · 245 lbReturning
#88Deakon TonielliOswego, ILTE0.7 pts48% role · 64% conf.6′5″ · 246 lbReturning
#80Hogan HansenMedina, WATE0.7 pts55% role · 64% conf.6′5″ · 240 lbReturning
#0Kendrick BellKansas City, MOWR0.7 pts47% role · 64% conf.6′2″ · 205 lbReturning
#9Channing GoodwinCharlotte, NCWR0.6 pts51% role · 64% conf.6′1″ · 197 lbReturning
#24Bryson KuzdzalAda, MIRB0.6 pts74% role · 76% conf.5′11″ · 210 lbReturning
#65Andrew BabalolaOverland Park, KSOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′6″ · 315 lbReturning
#54Andrew SpragueKansas City, MOOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′8″ · 315 lbReturning
#74Avery GachFranklin, MIOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 308 lbReturning
#77Blake FrazierAustin, TXOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′6″ · 295 lbReturning
#70Brady NortonMission Viejo, CAOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 312 lbReturning
#60Brooks BahrLake Forest, ILOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 312 lbReturning
#66Dan TaraboiCedarburg, WIOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′7″ · 328 lbReturning
#71Evan LinkBurke, VAOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′6″ · 324 lbReturning
#53Jake GuarneraPonte Vedra Beach, FLOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 311 lbReturning
#64James KavouklisTampa, FLOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 295 lbReturning
#50Luke HamiltonAvon, OHOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 319 lbReturning
#76Manuel BeigelFrankfurtOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 312 lbReturning
#55Nathan EfobiCumming, GAOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 312 lbReturning
#93Benny Patterson IIINewburgh, INDE0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 270 lbReturning
#9Cameron BrandtChatsworth, CADE0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 270 lbReturning
#8Dominic NicholsFrederick, MDDE0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 255 lbReturning
#37Julius HollyAlpharetta, GADE0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 230 lbReturning
#88Lugard EdokpayiBowie, MDDE0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′7″ · 250 lbReturning
#94Nate MarshallOak Park, ILDE0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 240 lbReturning
#99Bobby KankaHowell, MIDT0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 305 lbReturning
#54Deyvid PalepaleAnchorage, AKDT0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 335 lbReturning
#17Enow EttaKeller, TXDT0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 320 lbReturning
#92Ted HammondCincinnati, OHDT0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 294 lbReturning
#57Travis MotenLouisville, KYDT0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′6″ · 315 lbReturning
#95Trey PierceEvergreen Park, ILDT0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 310 lbReturning
#25Micah Ka'apanaWaianae, HIRB0.5 pts49% role · 64% conf.5′11″ · 190 lbReturning
#38Bryce WilcoxSharpsburg, GAWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 191 lbReturning
#84Jacob WashingtonHarvey, LAWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 197 lbReturning
#81Jamar BrowderLake Worth, FLWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 215 lbReturning
#89Kaleb SchlechtAnn Arbor, MIWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 205 lbReturning
#85Logan ForbesClarkston, MIWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 195 lbReturning
#46Crandall QuinnGrand Rapids, MITE0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 238 lbReturning
#44Eli OwensAlcoa, TNTE0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 244 lbReturning
#42Jalen HoffmanBurke, VATE0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 245 lbReturning
#28I'Marion StewartChicago, ILCB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 180 lbReturning
#20Jeremiah LoweLexington, KYCB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 180 lbReturning
#16Jo'Ziah EdmondIndianapolis, INCB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 185 lbReturning
#36Joshua NicholsDetroit, MICB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 205 lbReturning
#0Jyaire HillKankakee, ILCB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 190 lbReturning
#2Shamari EarlsChester, VACB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 205 lbReturning
#10Zeke BerryPittsburg, CACB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 196 lbReturning
#5Jacob OdenDetroit, MIS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 205 lbReturning
#6Jordan YoungMonroe, NCS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 195 lbReturning
#28Kainoa WinstonMontgomery Village, MDS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 204 lbReturning
#25Mason CurtisNashville, TNS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 211 lbReturning
#39Max ReyesSouthlake, TXS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 203 lbReturning
#31Nico AndrighettoMountain View, CAS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′9″ · 190 lbReturning
#1Rod MooreClayton, OHS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 198 lbReturning
#29Chase TaylorStockbridge, GALB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 237 lbReturning
#34John WeidenbachNaperville, ILLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 215 lbReturning
#12Nathaniel Owusu-BoatengHyattsville, MDLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 217 lbReturning
#18Troy BowlesTampa, FLLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 230 lbReturning
#43Zach LudwigSouth Park, PALB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 225 lbReturning
#26Donovan JohnsonSavannah, GARB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 215 lbReturning
#36Tomas O'MearaRiverview, MIRB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 192 lbReturning
#35Stuart BlakeJenkintown, PAPK0.3 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 181 lbReturning
#90Hudson HollenbeckCollierville, TNP0.3 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 206 lbReturning
#93Hunter RobertsonHuntington Woods, MIP0.3 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 205 lbReturning
#67Trent MiddletonFullerton, CALS0.3 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 225 lbReturning
#15Chase HerbstreitCincinnati, OHQB0.2 pts4% starter · 40% conf.6′1″ · 198 lbReturning
#52Ace HamiltonClinton, MDOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 295 lbNew / unverified
#58Malakai LeeKaneohe, HIOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′7″ · 359 lbNew / unverified
#78Marky WalbridgeHanover, MAOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′6″ · 285 lbNew / unverified
#72Peter DoniniSummit, NJOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′9″ · 270 lbNew / unverified
#79Tommy FraumannWilmette, ILOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′8″ · 279 lbNew / unverified
#14Carter MeadowsBethesda, MDDE0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′7″ · 252 lbNew / unverified
#51Mchale BladeCountry Club Hills, ILDE0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 245 lbNew / unverified
#41Tariq BoneyWashington, DCDE0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 243 lbNew / unverified
#56Alister VallejoLiberty Hill, TXDT0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 307 lbNew / unverified
#97Titan DavisOverland, MODT0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 286 lbNew / unverified
#22Braydon AlfordDublin, OHWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′8″ · 180 lbNew / unverified
#20Jaylen PileGrapevine, TXWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 195 lbNew / unverified
#13Travis JohnsonChesapeake, VAWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 185 lbNew / unverified
#40Jimmy PisaniClarendon Hills, ILTE0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 236 lbNew / unverified
#18Mason BonnerLakewood, COTE0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′7″ · 229 lbNew / unverified
#24Jamarion VincentWaco, TXCB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 170 lbNew / unverified
#42Jeffrey ChukwuSeverna Park, MDCB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 195 lbNew / unverified
#38Sam BaronCadillac, MICB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 188 lbNew / unverified
#27Ernest NunleyCarson, CAS0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 180 lbNew / unverified
#22Jordan DeckLittle Elm, TXS0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 190 lbNew / unverified
#49Adam BazziRochester Hills, MILB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′11″ · 205 lbNew / unverified
#15Aden ReederMonroe, OHLB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 215 lbNew / unverified
#33Kaden CatchingsJackson, MSLB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 220 lbNew / unverified
#23Markel DabneyChesterfield, VALB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 225 lbNew / unverified
#35Ndi EttaKeller, TXLB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 215 lbNew / unverified
#17Brady SmigielThousand Oaks, CAQB0.2 pts4% starter · 28% conf.6′5″ · 215 lbNew / unverified
#14Tommy CarrSaline, MIQB0.2 pts4% starter · 28% conf.6′4″ · 185 lbNew / unverified
#32Gary StacyGrosse Pointe Woods, MIRB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 202 lbNew / unverified
#29Jonathan BrownWesterville, OHRB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 200 lbNew / unverified
#5Savion HiterLouisa, VARB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 210 lbNew / unverified
#30Jacob BaggettCharlotte, NCPK0.1 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 190 lbNew / unverified
#33Cam BrownGold Coast, QLDP0.1 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 185 lbNew / unverified
#46Gavin MagorienErie, PALS0.1 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 202 lbNew / unverified
#43Jack TreutelaarLibertyville, ILLS0.1 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 210 lbNew / unverified
#49Nico CrawfordDublin, OHLS0.1 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 235 lbNew / unverified
2026 schedule
The path that shapes the projection.
The model prices every scheduled game individually. Home field, neutral sites, completed results and opponent rating feed the expected-win total shown above.
WeekOpponentSiteDate / result
1Western MichiganNon-conference · Michigan Stadium · 4M 19–32 · 76% win
HomeSep 57:30 PM EDT · model ↗2
OklahomaNon-conference · Michigan Stadium · 4M 24–25 · 53% win
HomeSep 1212:00 PM EDT · model ↗3
UTEPNon-conference · Michigan Stadium · 4M 12–37 · 92% win
HomeSep 193:30 PM EDT · model ↗4
IowaConference · Michigan Stadium · 4M 24–28 · 59% win
HomeSep 2612:00 AM EDT · model ↗5
MinnesotaConference · Huntington Bank Stadium · 4M 29–23 · 62% win
AwayOct 312:00 AM EDT · model ↗7
Penn StateConference · Michigan Stadium · 4M 25–28 · 55% win
HomeOct 1712:00 AM EDT · model ↗8
IndianaConference · Michigan Stadium · 4M 29–24 · 39% win
HomeOct 2412:00 AM EDT · model ↗9
RutgersConference · SHI Stadium · 4M 31–24 · 65% win
AwayOct 3112:00 AM EDT · model ↗10
Michigan StateConference · Michigan Stadium · 4M 19–33 · 78% win
HomeNov 712:00 AM EST · model ↗11
OregonConference · Autzen Stadium · 4M 21–32 · 26% win
AwayNov 1412:00 AM EST · model ↗12
UCLAConference · Michigan Stadium · 4M 20–32 · 74% win
HomeNov 2112:00 AM EST · model ↗13
Ohio StateConference · Ohio Stadium · 4M 19–32 · 22% win
AwayNov 2812:00 PM EST · model ↗
Range of outcomes
The projection is the middle—not the ceiling.
Floor case5 wins
Instability at premium positions turns swing games into losses.
4M midpoint7 wins
The roster performs close to its current power and schedule baseline.
Ceiling case9 wins
Quarterback play and line continuity outperform the preseason prior.
The betting lens
Price and matchup decide the play.
No team is an automatic bet or fade. The goal is to identify when the market's story about Michigan diverges from the football conditions required to cover.
The matchup preserves the talent edge, the opponent cannot create pressure with four, and the price has not already charged a contender tax.
A difficult opponent is paired with short rest, uncertain quarterback availability or a line that assumes best-case continuity.
Early-down success rate, pressure allowed and defensive explosive-play rate. Two stable categories would justify an upgrade.
Season-defining questionWill line play and quarterback consistency survive the Big Ten's deepest tier of contenders?