The 2026 outlook
Can the offense find another gear while a portal-heavy defense replaces elite NFL talent?
Ohio State opens No. 1 nationally and No. 1 of 18 in the Big Ten. The 4M baseline rates the roster 27.8 points above an average FBS team on a neutral field and projects 9.3 regular-season wins.
Ohio State belongs in the championship conversation because the baseline expects control, not survival. Against most of the schedule, this roster should create an efficiency advantage without needing turnover luck or unsustainable red-zone results. The real evaluation begins when that advantage narrows against another top-15 team.
Sayin and Jeremiah Smith give Ohio State the country's highest offensive ceiling. The tension is defensive: only two primary starters return, with James Smith, Qua Russaw and other transfers asked to become immediate answers.
The schedule is a defining variable: it projects No. 11 nationally, with No. 1 representing the hardest slate. Ohio State can play good football and still finish below public expectations if it loses the possession battles in its highest-leverage games. This is why the 9.3-win projection may look conservative relative to the power rating.
Pressure pointJulian Sayin · QB2025: 12–2
Personnel command center
Who is back, who arrived and who has to matter.
The roster is grouped by continuity because returning snaps and proven transfer production are more useful than raw headcount. “New / unverified” means the player did not match last season's roster or the incoming portal file—not that the player is necessarily a freshman.
Head coachRyan Day59–10 over the available CFBD career window
Staff continuityReturning head coachContinuity is treated as context, not an automatic upgrade.
Portal ledger17 in · 37 outImpact is weighted by rating, position and prior usage.
Position-group modelPremium roles separated.Fifty is FBS average. Quarterback includes the modeled starter probability, not merely the best name in the room.
4M player valueHighest-leverage rolesMaximum point value assumes the player is fully unavailable and is reduced by status probability.
PlayerPos.4M valueSizeContinuity
#3Devin McCuinJacksonville, TXWR0.8 pts57% role · 64% conf.6′0″ · 189 lbTransfer infrom UTSA
#5Kyle ParkerAllen, TXWR0.6 pts46% role · 64% conf.5′10″ · 195 lbTransfer infrom LSU
#84Hunter WelcingDeer Park, ILTE0.6 pts46% role · 64% conf.6′3″ · 246 lbTransfer infrom Northwestern
#86Mason WilliamsMogadore, OHTE0.6 pts44% role · 64% conf.6′4″ · 247 lbTransfer infrom Ohio
#24Ja'Kobi JacksonPensacola, FLRB0.5 pts59% role · 64% conf.5′11″ · 217 lbTransfer infrom Florida
#73Vasean WashingtonSpringfield, OHOL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 285 lbTransfer infrom Dartmouth
#4Qua RussawMontgomery, ALDE0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 240 lbTransfer infrom Alabama
#3James SmithMontgomery, ALDT0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 314 lbTransfer infrom Alabama
#55John WalkerKissimmee, FLDT0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 303 lbTransfer infrom UCF
#18Cam CalhounCincinnati, OHCB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 176 lbTransfer infrom Alabama
#24Dominick KellySt. Petersburg, FLCB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 190 lbTransfer infrom Georgia
#1Earl Little Jr.Fort Lauderdale, FLS0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 198 lbTransfer infrom Florida State
#11Terry MooreWashington, NCS0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 200 lbTransfer infrom Duke
#14Christian AlliegroDarien, CTLB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 241 lbTransfer infrom Wisconsin
#96Connor HawkinsLiberty Hill, TXPK0.3 pts38% role · 52% conf.6′1″ · 200 lbTransfer infrom Baylor
#48Dalton RiggsEagle, IDLS0.3 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 231 lbTransfer infrom UCF
#16Justyn MartinInglewood, CAQB0.2 pts4% starter · 40% conf.6′4″ · 230 lbTransfer infrom Maryland
#10Julian SayinCarlsbad, CAQB5.4 pts94% starter · 76% conf.6′1″ · 208 lbReturning
#4Jeremiah SmithMiami Gardens, FLWR0.9 pts66% role · 64% conf.6′3″ · 223 lbReturning
#25Bo JacksonCleveland, OHRB0.8 pts83% role · 76% conf.6′0″ · 217 lbReturning
#82David AdolphDublin, OHWR0.7 pts53% role · 64% conf.6′5″ · 210 lbReturning
#1Brandon InnissHollywood, FLWR0.7 pts54% role · 64% conf.6′0″ · 199 lbReturning
#67Austin SiereveldLiberty Township, OHOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 325 lbReturning
#75Carson HinzmanHammond, WIOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 300 lbReturning
#74Carter LoweToledo, OHOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′6″ · 313 lbReturning
#72Deontae ArmstrongElyria, OHOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′6″ · 305 lbReturning
#58Gabe VanSickleCoopersville, MIOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 316 lbReturning
#57Ian GecseGrandview Heights, OHOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 260 lbReturning
#69Ian MooreNew Palestine, INOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′6″ · 312 lbReturning
#76Jake CookWesterville, OHOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 306 lbReturning
#62Joshua PadillaHuber Heights, OHOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 300 lbReturning
#63Julian Goines-JacksonZanesville, OHOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 315 lbReturning
#51Luke MontgomeryFindlay, OHOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 312 lbReturning
#70Phillip DanielsCincinnati, OHOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 315 lbReturning
#64Simon LorentzDover, OHOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 285 lbReturning
#12Beau AtkinsonRaleigh, NCDE0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′6″ · 258 lbReturning
#44Epi SitanileiOntario, CADE0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 239 lbReturning
#2Kenyatta Jackson Jr.Hollywood, FLDE0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′6″ · 265 lbReturning
#9Zion GradyEnterprise, ALDE0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 258 lbReturning
#96Eddrick HoustonBuford, GADT0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 292 lbReturning
#94Jason MooreHyattsville, MDDT0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′6″ · 303 lbReturning
#53Will Smith Jr.Dublin, OHDT0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 292 lbReturning
#83Nate RobertsWashington, OKTE0.5 pts49% role · 64% conf.6′5″ · 240 lbReturning
#34Brennen SchrammMedina, OHWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 190 lbReturning
#8De'Zie JonesWayne, NJWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 187 lbReturning
#23Nolan BaudoChicago, ILWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 180 lbReturning
#7Phillip BellMission Viejo, CAWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 200 lbReturning
#87Brody LennonCleveland, OHTE0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 230 lbReturning
#88Maxence LeBlancSt. Bruno, PQTE0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 242 lbReturning
#85Bennett ChristianAcworth, GATE0.5 pts48% role · 64% conf.6′6″ · 250 lbReturning
#6Devin SanchezHouston, TXCB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 198 lbReturning
#7Jermaine Mathews Jr.Cincinnati, OHCB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 190 lbReturning
#19Jordyn WoodsCartersville, GACB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 193 lbReturning
#13Miles LockhartChandler, AZCB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′9″ · 197 lbReturning
#21Brenten JonesSteubenville, OHS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 210 lbReturning
#29Deshawn StewartWayne, NJS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 199 lbReturning
#49Gavin ThobeBellbrook, OHS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 190 lbReturning
#8Jaylen McClainRahway, NJS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 201 lbReturning
#35Jaystin GwinnWesterville, OHS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 206 lbReturning
#10Leroy Roker IIIFort Myers, FLS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 197 lbReturning
#46Ryan RudzinskiColumbus, OHS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 214 lbReturning
#39Glorien GoughPalos Verdes Estates, CADB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 197 lbReturning
#32Isaiah WestPhiladelphia, PARB0.4 pts57% role · 76% conf.5′10″ · 210 lbReturning
#50Alec DelSignoreYoungstown, OHLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 225 lbReturning
#33Eli LeeAkron, OHLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 227 lbReturning
#38Eli RiggsCincinnati, OHLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 229 lbReturning
#23Garrett StoverSunbury, OHLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 228 lbReturning
#26Payton PierceLucas, TXLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 223 lbReturning
#5Riley PettijohnMcKinney, TXLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 231 lbReturning
#17Tarvos AlfordPort Saint Lucie, FLLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 233 lbReturning
#52Ty HowardCleveland, OHLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 200 lbReturning
#37Zach HayesLa Grange Park, ILLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 222 lbReturning
#21Anthony RogersMontgomery, ALRB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′8″ · 198 lbReturning
#28Stanley Jackson Jr.Westerville, OHRB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 218 lbReturning
#42Joe McGuireMelbourne, VICP0.3 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 210 lbReturning
#18Kolton StoverCenterburg, OHQB0.2 pts4% starter · 40% conf.6′4″ · 198 lbReturning
#9Tavien St. ClairBellefontaine, OHQB0.2 pts4% starter · 40% conf.6′4″ · 230 lbReturning
#60Jaxon PowellPortsmouth, OHOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 306 lbNew / unverified
#66Landry BredeMentor, OHOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′6″ · 325 lbNew / unverified
#68Mason WilhelmLakewood, OHOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 299 lbNew / unverified
#78Max RileyAvon Lake, OHOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′5″ · 287 lbNew / unverified
#77Sam GreerAkron, OHOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′7″ · 335 lbNew / unverified
#65Tucker SmithPhoenix, AZOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′5″ · 280 lbNew / unverified
#97Dre QuinnBuford, GADE0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 223 lbNew / unverified
#34Khary WilderGardena, CADE0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 248 lbNew / unverified
#56Nate RiegleFindlay, OHDE0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 215 lbNew / unverified
#59Ashton YeagerFindlay, OHDT0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 280 lbNew / unverified
#90Damari SimeonRichland, NJDT0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 288 lbNew / unverified
#91Darryus McKinleyLafayette, LADT0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 270 lbNew / unverified
#95Emanuel RuffinBessemer, ALDT0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 282 lbNew / unverified
#98Jamir PerezCleveland, OHDT0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 360 lbNew / unverified
#30Amari Valerio-HudsonDublin, OHWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′9″ · 160 lbNew / unverified
#11Brock BoydSouthlake, TXWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 184 lbNew / unverified
#15Chris Henry Jr.Santa Ana, CAWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′5″ · 195 lbNew / unverified
#80Jaeden RickettsPataskala, OHWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′11″ · 201 lbNew / unverified
#6Jerquaden GuilfordFort Wayne, INWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 185 lbNew / unverified
#33Ryan SeimetzJackson, OHWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′11″ · 188 lbNew / unverified
#38Frankie McAllisterColumbus, OHTE0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′5″ · 220 lbNew / unverified
#89Nick LautarLebanon, OHTE0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′5″ · 220 lbNew / unverified
#43Amar'e MillerPickerington, OHCB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′11″ · 194 lbNew / unverified
#25Jay TimmonsGibsonia, PACB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′11″ · 180 lbNew / unverified
#15Jordan ThomasOradell, NJCB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 189 lbNew / unverified
#16Blaine BradfordBaton Rouge, LAS0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 209 lbNew / unverified
#32Kaden GebhardtLewis Center, OHS0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 200 lbNew / unverified
#30Khmari BingBaltimore, MDS0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′11″ · 182 lbNew / unverified
#28Simeon CaldwellJacksonville, FLS0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 195 lbNew / unverified
#48Jackson GulaStreetsboro, OHDB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 180 lbNew / unverified
#41Braxton RembertHoschton, GALB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′5″ · 195 lbNew / unverified
#20Cincere JohnsonCleveland, OHLB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 228 lbNew / unverified
#36CJ SannaLewis Center, OHLB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 230 lbNew / unverified
#54Na'il Diggs Jr.Charlotte, NCLB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 200 lbNew / unverified
#19Brady GeibelSugarcreek, OHQB0.2 pts4% starter · 28% conf.6′4″ · 207 lbNew / unverified
#13Luke FaheyMission Viejo, CAQB0.2 pts4% starter · 28% conf.5′11″ · 206 lbNew / unverified
#29Favour AkihDelaware, OHRB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′11″ · 184 lbNew / unverified
#2Legend BeyForney, TXRB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′10″ · 177 lbNew / unverified
#92Cooper PetersonCharlotte, NCPK0.1 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 195 lbNew / unverified
#49Marcello DiomedeGlen Ellyn, ILPK0.1 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 195 lbNew / unverified
#93Brady YoungPerrysburg, OHP0.1 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 207 lbNew / unverified
#43Brody JenkinsMadison, GALS0.1 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 195 lbNew / unverified
#61Landon BealGrove City, OHLS0.1 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 208 lbNew / unverified
2026 schedule
The path that shapes the projection.
The model prices every scheduled game individually. Home field, neutral sites, completed results and opponent rating feed the expected-win total shown above.
WeekOpponentSiteDate / result
1Ball StateNon-conference · Ohio Stadium · 4M 5–44 · 98% win
HomeSep 512:30 PM EDT · model ↗2
TexasNon-conference · DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium · 4M 27–23 · 60% win
AwaySep 127:30 PM EDT · model ↗3
Kent StateNon-conference · Ohio Stadium · 4M 9–43 · 97% win
HomeSep 1912:00 PM EDT · model ↗4
IllinoisConference · Ohio Stadium · 4M 17–34 · 83% win
HomeSep 2612:00 AM EDT · model ↗5
IowaConference · Kinnick Stadium · 4M 30–20 · 71% win
AwayOct 312:00 AM EDT · model ↗6
MarylandConference · Ohio Stadium · 4M 13–37 · 90% win
HomeOct 1012:00 AM EDT · model ↗7
IndianaConference · Memorial Stadium (Bloomington, IN) · 4M 26–25 · 54% win
AwayOct 1712:00 AM EDT · model ↗9
USCConference · Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum · 4M 29–23 · 62% win
AwayOct 3112:00 AM EDT · model ↗10
OregonConference · Ohio Stadium · 4M 22–28 · 63% win
HomeNov 712:00 AM EST · model ↗11
NorthwesternConference · Ohio Stadium · 4M 15–36 · 88% win
HomeNov 1412:00 AM EST · model ↗12
NebraskaConference · Memorial Stadium (Lincoln, NE) · 4M 33–18 · 80% win
AwayNov 2112:00 AM EST · model ↗13
MichiganConference · Ohio Stadium · 4M 19–32 · 78% win
HomeNov 2812:00 PM EST · model ↗
Range of outcomes
The projection is the middle—not the ceiling.
Floor case7 wins
Instability at premium positions turns swing games into losses.
4M midpoint9 wins
The roster performs close to its current power and schedule baseline.
Ceiling case11 wins
Quarterback play and line continuity outperform the preseason prior.
The betting lens
Price and matchup decide the play.
No team is an automatic bet or fade. The goal is to identify when the market's story about Ohio State diverges from the football conditions required to cover.
The matchup preserves the talent edge, the opponent cannot create pressure with four, and the price has not already charged a contender tax.
A difficult opponent is paired with short rest, uncertain quarterback availability or a line that assumes best-case continuity.
Whether the new personnel produces the role-specific answers described above—not merely whether the most recognizable names play.
Season-defining questionCan the offense find another gear while a portal-heavy defense replaces elite NFL talent?