UTSA has a 62% win chance in a competitive matchup.
Talent, depth and recruiting baseline is the clearest advantage supporting the projection.
Navy needs short fields or a possession advantage to break the expected script.
How the game projects
UTSA owns the median outcome. Navy needs the game to bend.
Talent, depth and recruiting baseline. Protect the football and make that advantage show up across full drives instead of isolated plays.
Generate short fields, win explosive plays and force the favorite to finish difficult drives.
Read the full projection +
The model makes UTSA the neutral-field leader after blending opponent-adjusted efficiency, predictive ratings, roster quality, returning production, portal impact and special teams. The complete environment contributes +2.8 points toward the home-team margin. The median score is UTSA 30 · Navy 25, with roughly 12.0 possessions per team.
This is a distribution, not a promise. UTSA wins 62% of the outcome curve; the remaining probability captures turnovers, finishing-drive variance, injuries and early-season uncertainty.
Does the strongest model advantage appear on the opening possessions?
12.0 possessions per team is the scoring baseline.
Turnovers, short fields and explosive plays are the clearest upset path.
Why the model likes it
The matchup engine, from highlights to detail.
Open only the part you want. Every figure is a matchup index—not a projected point adjustment.
Offense vs. defenseEfficiency, explosives and coverageUTSA leads+
Expected scoring efficiency and early-down leverage across the two offenses.
Opponent-adjusted prevention, disruption and finishing-drive defense.
Pass-game production, returning usage and depth against the opposing coverage unit.
Coverage experience and play prevention against the opposing passing attack.
Quarterback & personnelThe players most capable of moving the numberUTSA leads+
Starter probability, proven production, continuity and transfer translation.
Role-weighted returning production and incoming transfer contribution.
Recruiting baseline, usable depth and talent concentration at premium positions.
Line of scrimmageProtection, disruption and field positionNavy leads+
Returning line usage, protection stability and the ability to avoid negative plays.
Pressure, havoc and run disruption without needing extra defenders.
Kicking, field position and hidden-yardage efficiency.
EnvironmentHome field, travel, weather and availabilityUTSA leads+
UTSA's learned home baseline, venue history, capacity and altitude at Alamodome.
Relative trip distance, time-zone change and local kickoff timing.
Difference in recovery time entering the game.
Verified injury and availability reports applied as a live overlay.
How 4M built the fair lineUTSA -5.4View the number bridge +
The location calculation combines the learned national baseline with venue and conference history, capacity, altitude, travel, body clock and rest. The archived team ratings remain neutral-field numbers.
Personnel file
Continuity, transfers and the people who can move the number.
- Braxton WoodsonQB · Returning3.1
- Luke HutchisonWR · Returning0.7
- Michael BarrowWR · Returning0.7
- Owen McCownQB · Returning5.0
- AJ Wilson Jr.WR · Returning0.8
- David Amador IIWR · Returning0.8
Market translation
No automatic play.
No licensed pregame market is attached. The 4M football forecast remains archived, but no live-game price is substituted after kickoff.
Schedule context
What comes immediately before and after this matchup.
- W5Oct 3at Air ForceAway
- W6Oct 10vs TulsaHome
- NOWOct 17at UTSACurrent matchup
- W8Oct 24vs North TexasHome
- W9Oct 31vs Notre DameNeutral
- W5Oct 3at RiceAway
- W6Oct 8vs South FloridaHome
- NOWOct 17vs NavyCurrent matchup
- W8Oct 24at TulaneAway
- W10Nov 5at Florida AtlanticAway