Navy 2026 Preview — No. 55 in the 4M 138

The 2026 outlook

Does this team have the quarterback play and defensive depth to win the American?

Navy opens No. 76 nationally and No. 7 of 14 in the American. The 4M baseline rates the roster 2.2 points below an average FBS team on a neutral field and projects 5.8 regular-season wins.

Navy profiles as competitive but opponent-sensitive. It can win when the matchup protects its weak points, yet it does not have enough week-to-week talent separation to survive poor early-down offense, lost field position and a negative turnover margin at the same time.

Depth is the central concern. Transfers can raise the first unit quickly, but the two-deep has to hold up across twelve games. The first month should reveal whether the rebuild created real competition or simply moved uncertainty from one position group to another.

The schedule grades No. 92 nationally—enough resistance to expose weaknesses without defining the entire year. A small group of swing games should determine whether Navy beats its 5.8-win projection, placing extra value on special teams, fourth-down decisions and late-game quarterback play.

Personnel command center

Who is back, who arrived and who has to matter.

The roster is grouped by continuity because returning snaps and proven transfer production are more useful than raw headcount. “New / unverified” means the player did not match last season's roster or the incoming portal file—not that the player is necessarily a freshman.

Head coachBrian Newberry26–12 over the available CFBD career window

Staff continuityReturning head coachContinuity is treated as context, not an automatic upgrade.

Portal ledger0 in · 3 outImpact is weighted by rating, position and prior usage.

Position-group modelPremium roles separated.Fifty is FBS average. Quarterback includes the modeled starter probability, not merely the best name in the room.

Quarterback43

Offensive line51

Receivers39

Defensive front52

Secondary50

OutJustin RossCB · to Virginia · 3★

OutJaylin AcevedoOT · to South Florida · 3★

OutBrady McDonoughQB · to Georgetown · 2★

4M player valueHighest-leverage rolesMaximum point value assumes the player is fully unavailable and is reduced by status probability.

QBBraxton Woodson3.1 pts65% starter · usage + PPA + WEPA + roster continuity + QB starter probability

WRLuke Hutchison0.7 pts49% expected role · usage + PPA + roster continuity

WRMichael Barrow0.7 pts48% expected role · usage + PPA + roster continuity

QBJackson Gutierrez0.7 pts15% starter · usage + PPA + roster continuity + QB starter probability

WRJoshua Guerin0.7 pts47% expected role · usage + PPA + roster continuity

OTConnor Heater0.6 pts44% expected role · roster continuity

Find a player

PlayerPos.4M valueSizeContinuity

#5Braxton WoodsonAltamonte Springs, FLQB3.1 pts65% starter · 76% conf.6′3″ · 215 lbReturning

#89Luke HutchisonRound Rock, TXWR0.7 pts49% role · 64% conf.6′0″ · 190 lbReturning

#26Michael BarrowGrand Prairie, TXWR0.7 pts48% role · 64% conf.5′7″ · 190 lbReturning

#8Jackson GutierrezSan Antonio, TXQB0.7 pts15% starter · 64% conf.6′0″ · 207 lbReturning

#86Joshua GuerinFort Lauderdale, FLWR0.7 pts47% role · 64% conf.6′1″ · 180 lbReturning

#65Connor HeaterBrookfield, OHOT0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 275 lbReturning

#61Drew FontanaPittsburgh, PAOT0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 273 lbReturning

#75Hansen CollieSan Marcos, TXOT0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 279 lbReturning

#74James CardinaliGibsonia, PAOT0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′6″ · 286 lbReturning

#62Karson YoungLubbock, TXOT0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 296 lbReturning

#79Logan WegmanReading, PAOT0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 282 lbReturning

#72Mack TaylorQueen Creek, AZOT0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 276 lbReturning

#77Malcolm JohnsonSouth Jordan, UTOT0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′6″ · 292 lbReturning

#73Sean CrowleyGlen Arm, MDOT0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 293 lbReturning

#78Ben ReilandShakopee, MNC0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 298 lbReturning

#69Cam NicholsCharlotte, NCC0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 305 lbReturning

#54Hunter FayWeatherford, TXC0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 265 lbReturning

#63Toran SmithEdmond, OKC0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 277 lbReturning

#70Jake PolitoSomers, NYOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 295 lbReturning

#65Aiden LyczekCranberry Township, PADE0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 268 lbReturning

#90Ikenna OzurumbaAcworth, GADE0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 256 lbReturning

#78Jaden BrockSuwanee, GADE0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 260 lbReturning

#73Rhoen BreenCary, NCDE0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 271 lbReturning

#92Alex McCalopGreensboro, NCDT0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 289 lbReturning

#98Bryce RothwellMount Pleasant, SCDT0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 290 lbReturning

#96Clancy OriePittsburgh, PADT0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 272 lbReturning

#79Clinton AnyagafuMissouri City, TXDT0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 255 lbReturning

#95Griffen WillisAustin, TXDT0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 280 lbReturning

#97Matt ReyesFriendswood, TXDT0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 284 lbReturning

#99Chris HerockCumming, GADL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 266 lbReturning

#77Connor YoungPittsburgh, PADL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 278 lbReturning

#76Terrence McCauleyWhite Plains, MDDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 279 lbReturning

#94Xavyer ArringtonVero Beach, FLDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 279 lbReturning

#13Akeem ClarkDistrict Heights, MDWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 200 lbReturning

#18Andersen CardozaFayetteville, GAWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 203 lbReturning

#36Andre Gilbert Jr.Tampa, FLWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′7″ · 160 lbReturning

#80Arnel HeathingtonWaldorf, MDWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 193 lbReturning

#81Casey SmithAnnapolis, MDWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 204 lbReturning

#29Gage LeonardChatsworth, GAWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′9″ · 176 lbReturning

#25Isaiah BryantMount Dora, FLWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′9″ · 165 lbReturning

#22Jeremiah ChalmersFort Lauderdale, FLWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 187 lbReturning

#83Landon DolhancykPeachtree City, GAWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 183 lbReturning

#33Landon WalkerAlpharetta, GAWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 196 lbReturning

#14Maddax FayardDestin, FLWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 187 lbReturning

#0Noah BullBaltimore, MDWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 210 lbReturning

#20Prosper AkannaSachse, TXWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 195 lbReturning

#21Santino SanchezPikesville, MDWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′8″ · 185 lbReturning

#2Tre Jones IIIPlainfield, ILWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 195 lbReturning

#82Drew HallPembroke, MATE0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 230 lbReturning

#43Gavin NoeNorris, TNTE0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 227 lbReturning

#85Jake NorrisMadison, MSTE0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 230 lbReturning

#88Merrick BarlowNewbury, MATE0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′6″ · 239 lbReturning

#87Theo ElwellPeachtree City, GATE0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 241 lbReturning

#23Charles RobinsonKnoxville, TNWR0.5 pts49% role · 64% conf.6′0″ · 191 lbReturning

#28Bryce AllenCumming, GACB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 181 lbReturning

#13Cam RobinsonAtlanta, GACB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 187 lbReturning

#4Collin SealsLithonia, GACB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 175 lbReturning

#3Irabonoise OnihaSilver Spring, MDCB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 183 lbReturning

#25Jaxson JewellCoral Springs, FLCB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 180 lbReturning

#10Nick BellCenterton, ARCB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 182 lbReturning

#6Phillip HamiltonBurleson, TXCB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 175 lbReturning

#15Xavier Le JeuneMidlothian, TXCB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 181 lbReturning

#8Aaron RoseWindsor Mill, MDS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 194 lbReturning

#24Carson de AvilaNewport Beach, CAS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 190 lbReturning

#2Conner LessaneLewisville, NCS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 198 lbReturning

#16Giuseppe SessiSan Antonio, TXS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 204 lbReturning

#11Jonah CaliMontverde, FLS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′9″ · 190 lbReturning

#9Joshua SwitzerCharlotte, NCS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 188 lbReturning

#7Kush'i AbrahamCincinnati, OHS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′9″ · 186 lbReturning

#5Matthew SeligaCincinnati, OHS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 190 lbReturning

#22Maxwell WilliamsLeague City, TXS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 205 lbReturning

#17Trent GrayAustin, TXS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 186 lbReturning

#84Jordan CollinsRock Hill, SCTE0.5 pts46% role · 64% conf.6′3″ · 236 lbReturning

#49Amahd ClarkDistrict Heights, MDLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 219 lbReturning

#55Bishop RellahPelham, ALLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 227 lbReturning

#42Brady O'ConnorCincinnati, OHLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 232 lbReturning

#35Brandon IhleApex, NCLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 220 lbReturning

#45Christian JohnsonAtlanta, GALB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 225 lbReturning

#59Cody FairMassillon, OHLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 230 lbReturning

#58Coleman CauleyMacon, GALB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 227 lbReturning

#38Daveon JonesValley Grande, ALLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 234 lbReturning

#88Dom PurcellColumbus, OHLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 207 lbReturning

#84Gavin WidenerGlen Allen, VALB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 224 lbReturning

#50Gavin WoodsBulverde, TXLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 232 lbReturning

#47Harry Beacham IIIBaton Rouge, LALB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 220 lbReturning

#51Jacob AsbeckChester, OKLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 215 lbReturning

#82Jaden ManginiSan Diego, CALB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 206 lbReturning

#21JaSean McLeanLaurel, MDLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 205 lbReturning

#39Job GrantKansas City, MOLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 223 lbReturning

#32Justin ColesSunrise, FLLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 196 lbReturning

#31Luke LawsonCranberry Township, PALB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 217 lbReturning

#0Mackenzie ArdoinOpelousas, LALB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 230 lbReturning

#56MarcAnthony ParkerFredericksburg, VALB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 218 lbReturning

#53Marcus BleazardKennesaw, GALB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 224 lbReturning

#57Mason FreySouthport, CTLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 243 lbReturning

#43Matt KarpinskyDayton, OHLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 208 lbReturning

#83Nash BeenenAtlantic Beach, FLLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 202 lbReturning

#46Noah BeckCleves, OHLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 233 lbReturning

#52Nolan McCamyCovington, GALB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 212 lbReturning

#1Seth EnglishGainesville, FLLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 199 lbReturning

#54Teddy AndrousAnnapolis, MDLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 220 lbReturning

#14Trent GillisGlen Burnie, MDLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 200 lbReturning

#18Will MillerPinehurst, NCLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 207 lbReturning

#44Aydin WoolfolkFredericksburg, VARB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′8″ · 215 lbReturning

#24Braeden GeorgeBaton Rouge, LARB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 204 lbReturning

#42Christian CromerBrooksville, FLRB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 250 lbReturning

#34Jadyn JonesWyomissing, PARB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 200 lbReturning

#31Jai HundleyKnoxville, TNRB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′9″ · 200 lbReturning

#35Quinton EzzardSmyrna, GARB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 210 lbReturning

#41Stefan EgbeEllicott City, MDRB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 218 lbReturning

#40Vic ListortiPasadena, MDRB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 205 lbReturning

#68Hoke Smith IIBirmingham, ALG0.3 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 317 lbReturning

#71Isaac BunkerMonroe, WIG0.3 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 298 lbReturning

#64Jace WilliamsElgin, OKG0.3 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 290 lbReturning

#57John HebertBaton Rouge, LAG0.3 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 275 lbReturning

#95Justin WelchIrmo, SCPK0.3 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 190 lbReturning

#99Lance GossettLouisville, KYPK0.3 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 200 lbReturning

#67Matt TomaszewskiClifton Park, NYG0.3 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 296 lbReturning

#59Paul McClune IVMorgantown, PAG0.3 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 285 lbReturning

#66Will HamptonPetal, MSG0.3 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 298 lbReturning

#56Wyatt FergusonPasadena, MDG0.3 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 295 lbReturning

#60Zarian SimmsConcord, NCG0.3 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 299 lbReturning

#16Michael DoveWinter Garden, FLQB0.3 pts7% starter · 40% conf.6′0″ · 206 lbReturning

#10Ryan BrassCincinnati, OHQB0.3 pts7% starter · 40% conf.6′0″ · 210 lbReturning

#90Jack ArmbrusterNew Orleans, LAP0.3 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 180 lbReturning

#11Jacob CarlsonPlano, TXP0.3 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 190 lbReturning

#97Roman HylandBelmont, NCP0.3 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 195 lbReturning

#91Eli CronicArnold, MDLS0.3 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 183 lbReturning

#94Jaxon EndresBrentwood, TNLS0.3 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 215 lbReturning

#98Landon PurcellPowell, OHLS0.3 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 192 lbReturning

#92Rayne FryLawrenceville, GALS0.3 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 196 lbReturning

#69Alex BrewerCanton, GAOT0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 315 lbNew / unverified

#56Garison MillsapsHickory, NCOT0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′5″ · 270 lbNew / unverified

#50Joe AlnwickCopake, NYOT0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 280 lbNew / unverified

#58Peter BonnetPittsburgh, PAOT0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′5″ · 295 lbNew / unverified

#59Gavin DaubyWildwood, MOC0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 285 lbNew / unverified

#71Avery HughesLexington, SCDE0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 235 lbNew / unverified

#79Bryan HallWellington, FLDE0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 278 lbNew / unverified

#70Christian SmithFrisco, TXDE0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 220 lbNew / unverified

#72Elysha CampbellTallahassee, FLDE0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 220 lbNew / unverified

#75Romane GrantBiloxi, MSDE0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 260 lbNew / unverified

#74Gabriel GeorgeBrookfield, CTDT0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′5″ · 260 lbNew / unverified

#69Delan Massey-WrightCincinnati, OHDL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 294 lbNew / unverified

#68Todd HammondFranklin, TNDL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 280 lbNew / unverified

#38Armoni SpurlockEdgewater, FLWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 208 lbNew / unverified

#6Bash BodilyPark City, UTWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′5″ · 205 lbNew / unverified

#1Braeden StuartMoon Township, PAWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 195 lbNew / unverified

#9Cayden AlulaJupiter, FLWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 197 lbNew / unverified

#17Gus AndersonNewnan, GAWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′11″ · 190 lbNew / unverified

#37Ihsaan AlozieClifton Park, NYWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′9″ · 183 lbNew / unverified

#32James Cusick IIUnion, KYWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 187 lbNew / unverified

#4JP DonovanJacksonville, FLWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 205 lbNew / unverified

#3Truman BrasfieldCorvallis, ORWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 197 lbNew / unverified

#28Tyler BreedloveLoganville, GAWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 173 lbNew / unverified

#11Nick SpearsBaton Rouge, LATE0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 225 lbNew / unverified

#20Caiden AnkuAntioch, TNCB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 200 lbNew / unverified

#29Eli ThompsonWaxahachie, TXCB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′11″ · 185 lbNew / unverified

#26Garrison EdwardsPine Mountain, GACB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′9″ · 190 lbNew / unverified

#23Sean MartinDunnellon, FLCB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′10″ · 195 lbNew / unverified

#33Gunnar RegerKing George, VAS0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 195 lbNew / unverified

#34Tre WintersAdairsville, GAS0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 190 lbNew / unverified

#5Zyon McKenzieKennesaw, GAS0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′11″ · 190 lbNew / unverified

#33Allen AndersonAnnapolis, MDLB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 230 lbNew / unverified

#81Anthony GiorgiWashington, PALB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 220 lbNew / unverified

#22E.J. WalkerOrange, TXLB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 220 lbNew / unverified

#80Ian HallAlexandria, VALB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 210 lbNew / unverified

#37Jaden HolderSnellville, GALB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 210 lbNew / unverified

#41James DeyoLynchburg, VALB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 225 lbNew / unverified

#86Julian TerryMiami, FLLB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 225 lbNew / unverified

#36Kaleb NelsonFredon, NJLB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′11″ · 210 lbNew / unverified

#44Kyle RamosWayne, NJLB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′11″ · 215 lbNew / unverified

#36Luke MitchellHeath, TXLB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′11″ · 210 lbNew / unverified

#40Mac Barrow IIHouston, TXLB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′11″ · 213 lbNew / unverified

#34Maddox HaylesDestin, FLLB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 212 lbNew / unverified

#85Nick RoseTallahassee, FLLB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 217 lbNew / unverified

#87Ronin SimmsDecatur, GALB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 205 lbNew / unverified

#44Terrez BootheAberdeen, MDLB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 200 lbNew / unverified

#89Xavier SanchezArgyle, TXLB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 210 lbNew / unverified

#1Brady CarmicalAshburn, VAQB0.2 pts4% starter · 28% conf.6′2″ · 215 lbNew / unverified

#15Evan BlouirLusby, MDQB0.2 pts4% starter · 28% conf.6′0″ · 205 lbNew / unverified

#7Jason Williams Jr.Virginia Beach, VAQB0.2 pts4% starter · 28% conf.6′2″ · 185 lbNew / unverified

#4Jett TaylorGrand Saline, TXQB0.2 pts4% starter · 28% conf.6′1″ · 195 lbNew / unverified

#3Maverick ChanceBrentwood, TNQB0.2 pts4% starter · 28% conf.6′0″ · 215 lbNew / unverified

#45Chris Daley IIDenver, NCRB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′10″ · 215 lbNew / unverified

#49Jacob WilliamsWashougal, WARB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′10″ · 210 lbNew / unverified

#43Jeremiah WingfieldAthens, GARB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′9″ · 205 lbNew / unverified

#46Julian TurneyMays Landing, NJRB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 230 lbNew / unverified

#47Tyler WallDallas, TXRB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 215 lbNew / unverified

#96Archie EshLenexa, KSPK0.1 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′10″ · 180 lbNew / unverified

#8Cooper WelchPasadena, MDPK0.1 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′11″ · 180 lbNew / unverified

#53Jack HeathLone Tree, COG0.1 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′5″ · 285 lbNew / unverified

#52Jackson DeLoachSuwanee, GAG0.1 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 273 lbNew / unverified

#55Matt McMahonCanonsburg, PAG0.1 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 275 lbNew / unverified

#15Nolan BartleyAustin, TXPK0.1 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 172 lbNew / unverified

#76Peter VomvolakisGreenwich, CTG0.1 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 285 lbNew / unverified

#39Jonah KruegerCollege Station, TXLS0.1 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′10″ · 205 lbNew / unverified

#93Thomas McDonaldAgoura Hills, CALS0.1 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 240 lbNew / unverified

2026 schedule

The path that shapes the projection.

The model prices every scheduled game individually. Home field, neutral sites, completed results and opponent rating feed the expected-win total shown above.

WeekOpponentSiteDate / result

TowsonNon-conference · Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium · 4M 15–38 · 90% win

HomeSep 53:30 PM EDT · model ↗2

Florida AtlanticConference · FAU Stadium · 4M 29–27 · 54% win

AwaySep 127:30 PM EDT · model ↗4

UABConference · Protective Stadium · 4M 30–25 · 62% win

AwaySep 257:00 PM EDT · model ↗5

Air ForceNon-conference · Falcon Stadium · 4M 30–28 · 53% win

AwayOct 312:00 PM EDT · model ↗6

TulsaConference · Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium · 4M 23–30 · 66% win

HomeOct 103:30 PM EDT · model ↗7

UTSAConference · Alamodome · 4M 25–30 · 38% win

AwayOct 1712:00 AM EDT · model ↗8

North TexasConference · Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium · 4M 29–28 · 50% win

HomeOct 243:30 PM EDT · model ↗9

Notre DameNon-conference · Gillette Stadium · 4M 37–18 · 14% win

NeutralOct 3112:00 PM EDT · model ↗10

TempleConference · Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium · 4M 24–31 · 66% win

HomeNov 73:30 PM EST · model ↗12

MemphisConference · Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium · 4M 26–29 · 57% win

HomeNov 2112:00 PM EST · model ↗13

CharlotteConference · Jerry Richardson Stadium · 4M 32–21 · 73% win

AwayNov 2812:00 AM EST · model ↗15

ArmyConference · MetLife Stadium · 4M 27–27 · 50% win

NeutralDec 123:00 PM EST · model ↗

Range of outcomes

The projection is the middle—not the ceiling.

Floor case4 wins

Instability at premium positions turns swing games into losses.

4M midpoint6 wins

The roster performs close to its current power and schedule baseline.

Ceiling case8 wins

Quarterback play and line continuity outperform the preseason prior.

The betting lens

Price and matchup decide the play.

No team is an automatic bet or fade. The goal is to identify when the market's story about Navy diverges from the football conditions required to cover.

Back them when

The spread is large, the favorite plays slowly, and the game script allows Navy to stay inside the number without chasing points.

Pass or fade when

The offense must play from behind, protect for long-yardage throws and generate explosives simply to reach the market expectation.

Watch first

Quarterback efficiency, offensive-line cohesion and whether the defense can get off the field without blitzing itself out of structure.

Season-defining questionDoes this team have the quarterback play and defensive depth to win the American?