The 2026 outlook
Does this team have the quarterback play and defensive depth to win the American?
UTSA opens No. 60 nationally and No. 2 of 14 in the American. The 4M baseline rates the roster 1.3 points above an average FBS team on a neutral field and projects 6.3 regular-season wins.
UTSA sits near the model's break-even line, where quarterback development and close-game execution matter more than brand. A bowl is attainable, but the margin is too thin to assume last year's record—or a splashy transfer class—will repeat without supporting efficiency.
There are enough playable pieces to compete, but the roster needs a dependable identity. Stable quarterback efficiency or an obvious line-of-scrimmage advantage would lift the ceiling. Portal additions matter only if their roles translate into protection, pressure or explosive-play creation.
The schedule grades No. 78 nationally—enough resistance to expose weaknesses without defining the entire year. A small group of swing games should determine whether UTSA beats its 6.3-win projection, placing extra value on special teams, fourth-down decisions and late-game quarterback play.
Personnel command center
Who is back, who arrived and who has to matter.
The roster is grouped by continuity because returning snaps and proven transfer production are more useful than raw headcount. “New / unverified” means the player did not match last season's roster or the incoming portal file—not that the player is necessarily a freshman.
Head coachJeff Traylor46–21 over the available CFBD career window
Staff continuityReturning head coachContinuity is treated as context, not an automatic upgrade.
Portal ledger22 in · 23 outImpact is weighted by rating, position and prior usage.
Position-group modelPremium roles separated.Fifty is FBS average. Quarterback includes the modeled starter probability, not merely the best name in the room.
4M player valueHighest-leverage rolesMaximum point value assumes the player is fully unavailable and is reduced by status probability.
PlayerPos.4M valueSizeContinuity
#81Miles CampbellDouglasville, GATE0.6 pts50% role · 64% conf.6′3″ · 240 lbTransfer infrom Florida A&M
#19TJ WestHouston, TXWR0.6 pts42% role · 64% conf.6′1″ · 195 lbTransfer infrom Texas Tech
#89Brandon Young Jr.Mansfield, TXTE0.6 pts41% role · 64% conf.6′5″ · 240 lbTransfer infrom North Texas
#72Ibrahim KebeCincinnati, OHOL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′7″ · 325 lbTransfer infrom Ohio
#65Jarrett HenryPalestine, TXOL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 320 lbTransfer infrom Oklahoma State
#44Collins AcheampongCape CoastDL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′7″ · 270 lbTransfer infrom Bowling Green
#95Drenon Fite IIITatum, TXDL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 260 lbTransfer infrom Louisiana
#94Eddy SmithPearland, TXDL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′6″ · 275 lbTransfer infrom Texas Tech
#0Jeremiah BaileySmyrna, TNDL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 275 lbTransfer infrom Eastern Kentucky
#91Jusiah SampletonGiddings, TXDL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 305 lbTransfer infrom CSU-Pueblo
#17James Madison IIKansas City, MOWR0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 200 lbTransfer infrom Missouri
#87Zahn CoakleyDallas, TXWR0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 195 lbTransfer infrom App State
#14Joel RogersSaint Francisville, LAS0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 200 lbTransfer infrom LSU
#25Nate Robinson Jr.San Antonio, TXS0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 200 lbTransfer infrom Marist
#29Xavier WaltonSan Antonio, TXS0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 200 lbTransfer infrom Angelo State
#10Brandon High Jr.Spring, TXRB0.4 pts49% role · 64% conf.5′10″ · 215 lbTransfer infrom California
#31Dylan SpencerHouston, TXLB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 245 lbTransfer infrom Texas Tech
#32Elijah BaldwinSan Antonio, TXLB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′7″ · 230 lbTransfer infrom UTEP
#33Eze OsonduTrophy Club, TXLB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 230 lbTransfer infrom California
#18Mark WiepertWilsonville, ORQB0.2 pts4% starter · 40% conf.6′1″ · 210 lbTransfer infrom Oregon
#2Owen McCownRusk, TXQB5.0 pts94% starter · 76% conf.6′1″ · 190 lbReturning
#84AJ Wilson Jr.Huntsville, TXWR0.8 pts55% role · 64% conf.6′2″ · 190 lbReturning
#0David Amador IIHouston, TXWR0.8 pts57% role · 64% conf.6′0″ · 195 lbReturning
#15DJ Allen Jr.Gladewater, TXWR0.7 pts52% role · 64% conf.5′11″ · 190 lbReturning
#1Will Henderson IIIGilmer, TXRB0.7 pts71% role · 76% conf.5′10″ · 185 lbReturning
#14Mekhi AndersonTampa, FLWR0.6 pts47% role · 64% conf.5′9″ · 170 lbReturning
#73A'marion BrelandHattiesburg, MSOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′9″ · 310 lbReturning
#57Ben RiosSan Antonio, TXOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′6″ · 295 lbReturning
#74Darrell JonesBaltimore, MDOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 340 lbReturning
#66Davion HurthMesquite, TXOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 255 lbReturning
#70Deandre MarshallSan Antonio, TXOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′7″ · 325 lbReturning
#77Devron Williams Jr.Aledo, TXOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 310 lbReturning
#69Eucebio RamosSan Antonio, TXOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 315 lbReturning
#71Jaylen GarthPort Neches, TXOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 310 lbReturning
#75Jonah MillerTucson, AZOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′8″ · 290 lbReturning
#59Joseph Ugwu Jr.Katy, TXOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 300 lbReturning
#76Luke LapezeHumble, TXOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 320 lbReturning
#52Preston HuneycuttHutto, TXOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 290 lbReturning
#13Jamel Hardy Jr.Dallas, TXWR0.6 pts49% role · 64% conf.6′2″ · 195 lbReturning
#96Corey WallsRowlett, TXDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 250 lbReturning
#90Donald Quaite Jr.Dallas, TXDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′6″ · 340 lbReturning
#98Jameian BuxtonNew Orleans, LADL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 325 lbReturning
#92Jaylan JonesCibolo, TXDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 300 lbReturning
#19Johnny Bowens IIIJudson, TXDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 300 lbReturning
#97King JusticePort Charlotte, FLDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 300 lbReturning
#99Tai LeonardHouston, TXDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 260 lbReturning
#47Tim Huff Jr.San Antonio, TXDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 240 lbReturning
#31Caleb GarciaMaricopa, AZWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′9″ · 180 lbReturning
#26Tangoh NjohCypress, TXWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 195 lbReturning
#80Wyatt SmileyWest Linn, ORWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 180 lbReturning
#86Isaiah Butler-TannerKilleen, TXTE0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′6″ · 265 lbReturning
#85Ty RupeSpring, TXTE0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′7″ · 245 lbReturning
#18Ahamad ChapmanSan Bernardino, CACB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 175 lbReturning
#27Jakevian RodgersDaingerfield, TXCB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 165 lbReturning
#10Lawrence Brown Jr.Madison Heights, VACB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 200 lbReturning
#28Louie HoganLa Porte, TXCB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 170 lbReturning
#13RJ Lester Jr.Fort Smith, ARCB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 180 lbReturning
#20Zach MorrisFlower Mound, TXCB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 185 lbReturning
#11Cam Upshaw Jr.Perry, FLS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 200 lbReturning
#22Elijah NewellMaumelle, ARS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 190 lbReturning
#12Marcellus WilkersonFort Worth, TXS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 210 lbReturning
#37Tristan EscobarSan Antonio, TXS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 190 lbReturning
#55Amare JohnsonDel Valle, TXLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 215 lbReturning
#23Brandon TuckerDesoto, TXLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 225 lbReturning
#26Bryce GraysRichmond, TXLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 205 lbReturning
#1Camron CooperDayton, TXLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 245 lbReturning
#16Chris Bryson IISan Antonio, TXLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 200 lbReturning
#15Darion WhiteWaco, TXLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 220 lbReturning
#34James Walley Jr.Missouri City, TXLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 250 lbReturning
#50Michael OwoeyeCypress, TXLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 215 lbReturning
#2Owen PeweeKaty, TXLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 220 lbReturning
#28A'Marion PetersonWichita Falls, TXRB0.4 pts54% role · 76% conf.6′0″ · 215 lbReturning
#22Bryson DonnellTyler, TXRB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 210 lbReturning
#25Frankie Arthur Jr.Conroe, TXRB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 210 lbReturning
#21JC SolitaireSan Antonio, TXRB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′9″ · 195 lbReturning
#42Mason CultonCypress, TXRB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′7″ · 190 lbReturning
#38TJ AndrewsSan Antonio, TXRB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 210 lbReturning
#98Jesse PerezSan Antonio, TXPK0.3 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′7″ · 135 lbReturning
#30Caile HoganEltham, VICP0.3 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 210 lbReturning
#44Jon Stephens IIIKaty, TXLS0.3 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 230 lbReturning
#92Michael PetroFlower Mound, TXPK0.3 pts44% role · 52% conf.5′10″ · 180 lbReturning
#11Brandon TennisonGilmer, TXQB0.2 pts4% starter · 64% conf.5′10″ · 190 lbReturning
#12Max GerlichAustin, TXQB0.2 pts4% starter · 40% conf.6′3″ · 215 lbReturning
#79Daniel SimpsonLiberty Hill, TXOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 300 lbNew / unverified
#68Josiah EvansGalveston, TXOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 285 lbNew / unverified
#55MJ SenegalFresno, CAOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 310 lbNew / unverified
#50Payton WilliamsAledo, TXOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 305 lbNew / unverified
#53Sekope WallaceSalt Lake City, UTOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′5″ · 305 lbNew / unverified
#88Byron PorterAustin, TXDL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 240 lbNew / unverified
#49Hudson PickettChandler, AZDL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 245 lbNew / unverified
#48Jacob Lopez-VeaseySan Antonio, TXDL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′5″ · 255 lbNew / unverified
#33Cael MeismanRapid City, SDWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 215 lbNew / unverified
#29Chris DupreeSan Antonio, TXWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 175 lbNew / unverified
#24Mekhi RiceWaco, TXWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′8″ · 160 lbNew / unverified
#82Prince HallKilleen, TXWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 200 lbNew / unverified
#59Cole RamseurSan Antonio, TXTE0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′5″ · 245 lbNew / unverified
#88Trysten LaughlinHouston, TXTE0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′5″ · 225 lbNew / unverified
#83Will TraylorBoerne, TXTE0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 195 lbNew / unverified
#17Asaad ChapmanSan Bernardino, CACB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 195 lbNew / unverified
#40Baylor SmithRichmond, TXCB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′10″ · 170 lbNew / unverified
#35Ben BrewerMobile, ALS0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′10″ · 195 lbNew / unverified
#21Jarvse Duece DickersonWallis, TXS0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 175 lbNew / unverified
#24Willie Nelson IIILongview, TXS0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′10″ · 165 lbNew / unverified
#51Aden HallLeesburg, FLLB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 195 lbNew / unverified
#10Archie ChambersNew Orleans, LALB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 210 lbNew / unverified
#30Bobby BrownBryan, TXLB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′11″ · 190 lbNew / unverified
#35Braeden LottAustin, TXLB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 210 lbNew / unverified
#56Caleb BarrowSpring, TXLB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 230 lbNew / unverified
#53Jamarri VinsonDecatur, ALLB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 210 lbNew / unverified
#46Lane RogersCorpus Christi, TXLB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 225 lbNew / unverified
#41Nate OrtegaSan Antonio, TXLB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′11″ · 190 lbNew / unverified
#36Tariq LaurentFort Lauderdale, FLLB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 260 lbNew / unverified
#57Tysan BreauxPflugerville, TXLB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′11″ · 210 lbNew / unverified
#16Maguire GaspersonArgyle, TXQB0.2 pts4% starter · 28% conf.6′0″ · 185 lbNew / unverified
#37Londen BickhamWaco, TXRB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 200 lbNew / unverified
#23Mykha GreenSinton, TXRB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 190 lbNew / unverified
#46Braydon DoaneAustin, TXP0.1 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 190 lbNew / unverified
#32Jason CardenasSan Antonio, TXP0.1 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′10″ · 190 lbNew / unverified
#43William HodgesSumrall, MSLS0.1 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 200 lbNew / unverified
2026 schedule
The path that shapes the projection.
The model prices every scheduled game individually. Home field, neutral sites, completed results and opponent rating feed the expected-win total shown above.
WeekOpponentSiteDate / result
1UT Rio Grande ValleyNon-conference · Alamodome · 4M 17–36 · 86% win
HomeSep 53:30 PM EDT · model ↗2Texas StateNon-conference · Bobcat Stadium (TX) · 4M 26–28 · 45% win
AwaySep 123:30 PM EDT · model ↗3
TexasNon-conference · DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium · 4M 19–33 · 21% win
AwaySep 198:00 PM EDT · model ↗4
Colorado StateNon-conference · Alamodome · 4M 21–32 · 74% win
HomeSep 2612:00 AM EDT · model ↗5
RiceConference · Rice Stadium · 4M 31–20 · 72% win
AwayOct 312:00 AM EDT · model ↗6
South FloridaConference · Alamodome · 4M 27–26 · 49% win
HomeOct 87:30 PM EDT · model ↗7
NavyConference · Alamodome · 4M 25–30 · 62% win
HomeOct 1712:00 AM EDT · model ↗8
TulaneConference · Yulman Stadium · 4M 25–27 · 46% win
AwayOct 2412:00 AM EDT · model ↗10
Florida AtlanticConference · FAU Stadium · 4M 29–24 · 61% win
AwayNov 58:00 PM EST · model ↗11
North TexasConference · Alamodome · 4M 26–29 · 56% win
HomeNov 1412:00 AM EST · model ↗12
UABConference · Protective Stadium · 4M 30–23 · 66% win
AwayNov 2112:00 AM EST · model ↗13
TulsaConference · Alamodome · 4M 20–30 · 71% win
HomeNov 2812:00 AM EST · model ↗
Range of outcomes
The projection is the middle—not the ceiling.
Floor case4 wins
Instability at premium positions turns swing games into losses.
4M midpoint6 wins
The roster performs close to its current power and schedule baseline.
Ceiling case8 wins
Quarterback play and line continuity outperform the preseason prior.
The betting lens
Price and matchup decide the play.
No team is an automatic bet or fade. The goal is to identify when the market's story about UTSA diverges from the football conditions required to cover.
The number is below a full possession and UTSA's best unit attacks a verified opponent weakness.
The offense must play from behind, protect for long-yardage throws and generate explosives simply to reach the market expectation.
Early-down success rate, pressure allowed and defensive explosive-play rate. Two stable categories would justify an upgrade.
Season-defining questionDoes this team have the quarterback play and defensive depth to win the American?