The 2026 outlook
Can this team separate in the country's most compressed conference race?
Arizona State opens No. 37 nationally and No. 7 of 16 in the Big 12. The 4M baseline rates the roster 5.7 points above an average FBS team on a neutral field and projects 4.9 regular-season wins.
Arizona State grades as a legitimate ranked team capable of punishing an overrated opponent. The distance to the playoff tier is consistency: one empty offensive quarter, a protection failure or a coverage bust can turn a controlled game into a coin flip.
There are enough playable pieces to compete, but the roster needs a dependable identity. Stable quarterback efficiency or an obvious line-of-scrimmage advantage would lift the ceiling. Portal additions matter only if their roles translate into protection, pressure or explosive-play creation.
The schedule grades No. 30 nationally—enough resistance to expose weaknesses without defining the entire year. A small group of swing games should determine whether Arizona State beats its 4.9-win projection, placing extra value on special teams, fourth-down decisions and late-game quarterback play.
Personnel command center
Who is back, who arrived and who has to matter.
The roster is grouped by continuity because returning snaps and proven transfer production are more useful than raw headcount. “New / unverified” means the player did not match last season's roster or the incoming portal file—not that the player is necessarily a freshman.
Head coachKenny Dillingham22–17 over the available CFBD career window
Staff continuityReturning head coachContinuity is treated as context, not an automatic upgrade.
Portal ledger24 in · 21 outImpact is weighted by rating, position and prior usage.
Position-group modelPremium roles separated.Fifty is FBS average. Quarterback includes the modeled starter probability, not merely the best name in the room.
4M player valueHighest-leverage rolesMaximum point value assumes the player is fully unavailable and is reduced by status probability.
PlayerPos.4M valueSizeContinuity
#8Cutter BoleyHodgenville, KYQB4.8 pts94% starter · 76% conf.6′5″ · 213 lbTransfer infrom Kentucky
#4Omarion MillerVivian, LAWR0.8 pts53% role · 64% conf.6′2″ · 210 lbTransfer infrom Colorado
#3Reed HarrisGreat Falls, MTWR0.8 pts53% role · 64% conf.6′5″ · 217 lbTransfer infrom Boston College
#6Marquis GillisMilford, DERB0.7 pts73% role · 64% conf.6′0″ · 210 lbTransfer infrom Delaware State
#24David AvitFrederick, MDRB0.7 pts71% role · 64% conf.6′0″ · 225 lbTransfer infrom Villanova
#7Raiden Vines-BrightTempe, AZWR0.6 pts44% role · 64% conf.6′1″ · 200 lbTransfer infrom Washington
#85Anthony MillerDuluth, GATE0.6 pts44% role · 64% conf.6′5″ · 265 lbTransfer infrom Tulane
#78Luke BaklenkoThousand Oaks, CAOL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′6″ · 313 lbTransfer infrom Oklahoma
#58Tana Alo-TupuolaBrownsburg, INOL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 325 lbTransfer infrom Georgia Tech
#4Emar'rion WinstonPortland, ORDL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 247 lbTransfer infrom Baylor
#9Jalen ThompsonDetroit, MIDL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 260 lbTransfer infrom Michigan State
#44Kristian IngmanReno, NVTE0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 235 lbTransfer infrom Portland State
#35Antoine Belgrave-ShorterJacksonville, FLDB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 195 lbTransfer infrom Penn State
#1Ashton StampsHarvey, LADB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 190 lbTransfer infrom LSU
#25Caleb ChesterMissouri City, TXDB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 179 lbTransfer infrom Texas
#23Jessiah McGrewTallahassee, FLDB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 185 lbTransfer infrom Florida International
#2Lyrik RawlsMarshall, TXDB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 205 lbTransfer infrom Kansas
#16Nigel PringleHouston, TXDB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 177 lbTransfer infrom Arkansas
#22Owen LongWhittier, CALB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 230 lbTransfer infrom Colorado State
#18Ramere DavisNorco, CALB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 205 lbTransfer infrom Northern Arizona
#32Carson SmithBelmont, NCPK0.3 pts38% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 176 lbTransfer infrom Austin Peay
#35Nick McLartyMelbourne, VICP0.3 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′7″ · 255 lbTransfer infrom Ohio State
#12Mikey KeeneChandler, AZQB0.2 pts4% starter · 40% conf.5′11″ · 200 lbTransfer infrom Michigan
#5Derek EusebioPlano, TXWR0.7 pts53% role · 64% conf.5′9″ · 185 lbReturning
#18Jalen MossMenlo Park, CAWR0.7 pts52% role · 64% conf.6′1″ · 185 lbReturning
#16Jaren HamiltonGainesville, FLWR0.6 pts49% role · 64% conf.6′0″ · 210 lbReturning
#69Brent HeltonCorona, CAOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 315 lbReturning
#76Champ WestbrooksLos Angeles, CAOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 295 lbReturning
#54Desean Bryant Jr.Duncanville, TXOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 245 lbReturning
#72Doughless TelomaCorona, CAOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 380 lbReturning
#70Jalen KlemmMars, PAOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′6″ · 295 lbReturning
#59Maki StewartLong Beach, CAOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 360 lbReturning
#71Makua PuleGilbert, AZOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 305 lbReturning
#52Manamo'ui MutiWahiawa, HIOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′7″ · 315 lbReturning
#77Matai JeffersonLynwood, CAOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 350 lbReturning
#53Rob LapuahoWest Valley City, UTOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′6″ · 335 lbReturning
#73Terrell KimMedford, OROL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 330 lbReturning
#64Wade HeltonCorona, CAOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 310 lbReturning
#79Xander RuggeroliLas Vegas, NVOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′6″ · 300 lbReturning
#22Jason Brown Jr.Seattle, WARB0.6 pts61% role · 64% conf.5′9″ · 185 lbReturning
#1Kyson BrownLancaster, TXRB0.6 pts57% role · 64% conf.6′1″ · 205 lbReturning
#3Albert Smith IIITerrytown, LADE0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 225 lbReturning
#10Clayton SmithQueen City, TXDE0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 255 lbReturning
#97Blazen Lono-WongWaimanalo, HIDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 290 lbReturning
#99C.J. FiteTatum, TXDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 305 lbReturning
#88Daeshon MorganAustin, TXDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 275 lbReturning
#17Joshua ShanklinOakland, CADL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 240 lbReturning
#93MyKeil GardnerEl Mirage, AZDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 300 lbReturning
#55Ramar WilliamsMesa, AZDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 275 lbReturning
#91Rashad McKenzieMission Hills, CADL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 295 lbReturning
#5Roman PitreBaton Rouge, LADL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 255 lbReturning
#36Salesi ManuReno, NVDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 245 lbReturning
#92Zac SwansonPhoenix, AZDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 295 lbReturning
#82Chance AblesDallas, TXWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 195 lbReturning
#9Cory Butler Jr.Corona, CAWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′9″ · 185 lbReturning
#89Harry HassmannDallas, TXWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 195 lbReturning
#17Michael TollefsonLas Vegas, NVWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 195 lbReturning
#80Plas JohnsonScottsdale, AZWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 170 lbReturning
#81Uriah NelomsGilbert, AZWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 215 lbReturning
#0AJ IaSanta Ana, CATE0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′6″ · 260 lbReturning
#87James GiggeyPrescott Valley, AZTE0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 255 lbReturning
#15Khamari AndersonDetroit, MITE0.5 pts48% role · 64% conf.6′5″ · 255 lbReturning
#15Joseph SmithHouston, TXCB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 190 lbReturning
#6Adrian WilsonDallas, TXS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 210 lbReturning
#12Ben Alefaio-LiliiSacramento, CAS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 200 lbReturning
#20Maurice WilliamsAlief, TXS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 205 lbReturning
#14Xavier SkowronTexas City, TXS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 195 lbReturning
#21Kyan McDonaldSeattle, WADB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 180 lbReturning
#7Montana WarrenMarshall, TXDB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 200 lbReturning
#0Rodney Bimage Jr.Houston, TXDB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 190 lbReturning
#23Demarius RobinsonOklahoma City, OKRB0.5 pts57% role · 64% conf.5′9″ · 180 lbReturning
#54Isaiah IosefaWaipahu, HILB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 225 lbReturning
#48Lee FuimaonoLas Vegas, NVLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 235 lbReturning
#8Martell HughesSan Diego, CALB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 220 lbReturning
#49Prayer Young-BlackgoatFlagstaff, AZLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 225 lbReturning
#45Tristan BaconGlendale, AZLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 240 lbReturning
#30Zyrus FiaseuLas Vegas, NVLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 235 lbReturning
#21Grayson RigdonColumbus, TXRB0.4 pts50% role · 64% conf.5′11″ · 195 lbReturning
#26Carston KiefferTempe, AZPK0.3 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′9″ · 175 lbReturning
#31Kanyon FloydScottsdale, AZP0.3 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 190 lbReturning
#39Tyler WigglesworthGlendale, AZLS0.3 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 195 lbReturning
#13Cameron DyerAlbuquerque, NMQB0.2 pts4% starter · 40% conf.6′3″ · 215 lbReturning
#56Cortavius TisabyDallas, TXOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′6″ · 250 lbNew / unverified
#75Jarmaine MitchellSaint James, LAOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′8″ · 310 lbNew / unverified
#50Marques UiniCopperas Cove, TXOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′5″ · 290 lbNew / unverified
#55Niniva NicholsonOceanside, CAOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 285 lbNew / unverified
#74Siosaia LapuahoSandy, UTOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′5″ · 315 lbNew / unverified
#90Hyrum VaeonoLawrence, KSDL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 285 lbNew / unverified
#95Jeffrey MannsLancaster, TXDL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 299 lbNew / unverified
#44Kirt VakalahiQueensland, QLDDL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′5″ · 260 lbNew / unverified
#84Landen AndersonEdmond, OKDL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 275 lbNew / unverified
#19Landen MireeCincinnati, OHTE0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 215 lbNew / unverified
#19Daquwan DunnRichardson, TXDB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 175 lbNew / unverified
#28Davis KinneyRichmond, TXDB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 185 lbNew / unverified
#24Jalen WilliamsMiami, FLDB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 160 lbNew / unverified
#31Zeth ThuesPhoenix, AZDB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′11″ · 185 lbNew / unverified
#43Mason MardenSt. Louis, MOLB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 195 lbNew / unverified
#34Oscar Aguilar Jr.Downey, CALB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 205 lbNew / unverified
#2Jake FetteEl Paso, TXQB0.2 pts4% starter · 28% conf.6′1″ · 195 lbNew / unverified
#25Cardae MackHouston, TXRB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′9″ · 210 lbNew / unverified
#43Grayson CurtisEast Lansing, MILS0.1 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 230 lbNew / unverified
2026 schedule
The path that shapes the projection.
The model prices every scheduled game individually. Home field, neutral sites, completed results and opponent rating feed the expected-win total shown above.
WeekOpponentSiteDate / result
1Morgan StateNon-conference · Mountain America Stadium · 4M 9–42 · 97% win
HomeSep 510:00 PM EDT · model ↗2Texas A&MNon-conference · Kyle Field · 4M 19–31 · 25% win
AwaySep 1212:00 PM EDT · model ↗3
KansasConference · Wembley Stadium · 4M 27–26 · 52% win
NeutralSep 1912:00 PM EDT · model ↗5
BaylorConference · Mountain America Stadium · 4M 23–29 · 62% win
HomeOct 312:00 AM EDT · model ↗6
Hawai'iNon-conference · Mountain America Stadium · 4M 20–31 · 73% win
HomeOct 1012:00 AM EDT · model ↗7Texas TechConference · Jones AT&T Stadium · 4M 17–30 · 23% win
AwayOct 1712:00 AM EDT · model ↗8
Kansas StateConference · Mountain America Stadium · 4M 25–26 · 52% win
HomeOct 2412:00 AM EDT · model ↗9
BYUConference · LaVell Edwards Stadium · 4M 22–29 · 34% win
AwayOct 3112:00 AM EDT · model ↗10
ColoradoConference · Mountain America Stadium · 4M 21–30 · 69% win
HomeNov 712:00 AM EST · model ↗11
UCFConference · FBC Mortgage Stadium · 4M 26–24 · 56% win
AwayNov 1412:00 AM EST · model ↗12
Oklahoma StateConference · Mountain America Stadium · 4M 19–31 · 76% win
HomeNov 2112:00 AM EST · model ↗13
ArizonaConference · Arizona Stadium · 4M 23–27 · 41% win
AwayNov 2812:00 AM EST · model ↗
Range of outcomes
The projection is the middle—not the ceiling.
Floor case3 wins
Instability at premium positions turns swing games into losses.
4M midpoint5 wins
The roster performs close to its current power and schedule baseline.
Ceiling case7 wins
Quarterback play and line continuity outperform the preseason prior.
The betting lens
Price and matchup decide the play.
No team is an automatic bet or fade. The goal is to identify when the market's story about Arizona State diverges from the football conditions required to cover.
The number is below a full possession and Arizona State's best unit attacks a verified opponent weakness.
The case rests on ranking, résumé or home-field narrative rather than a repeatable down-to-down advantage.
Early-down success rate, pressure allowed and defensive explosive-play rate. Two stable categories would justify an upgrade.
Season-defining questionCan this team separate in the country's most compressed conference race?