The 2026 outlook
Is there enough week-to-week consistency to turn ACC opportunity into a conference-title run?
NC State opens No. 38 nationally and No. 8 of 17 in the ACC. The 4M baseline rates the roster 5.6 points above an average FBS team on a neutral field and projects 5.5 regular-season wins.
NC State grades as a legitimate ranked team capable of punishing an overrated opponent. The distance to the playoff tier is consistency: one empty offensive quarter, a protection failure or a coverage bust can turn a controlled game into a coin flip.
There are enough playable pieces to compete, but the roster needs a dependable identity. Stable quarterback efficiency or an obvious line-of-scrimmage advantage would lift the ceiling. Portal additions matter only if their roles translate into protection, pressure or explosive-play creation.
The schedule grades No. 67 nationally—enough resistance to expose weaknesses without defining the entire year. A small group of swing games should determine whether NC State beats its 5.5-win projection, placing extra value on special teams, fourth-down decisions and late-game quarterback play.
Personnel command center
Who is back, who arrived and who has to matter.
The roster is grouped by continuity because returning snaps and proven transfer production are more useful than raw headcount. “New / unverified” means the player did not match last season's roster or the incoming portal file—not that the player is necessarily a freshman.
Head coachDave Doeren40–24 over the available CFBD career window
Staff continuityReturning head coachContinuity is treated as context, not an automatic upgrade.
Portal ledger20 in · 22 outImpact is weighted by rating, position and prior usage.
Position-group modelPremium roles separated.Fifty is FBS average. Quarterback includes the modeled starter probability, not merely the best name in the room.
4M player valueHighest-leverage rolesMaximum point value assumes the player is fully unavailable and is reduced by status probability.
PlayerPos.4M valueSizeContinuity
#12Tad HudsonHuntersville, NCQB1.2 pts25% starter · 76% conf.6′3″ · 227 lbTransfer infrom Coastal Carolina
#0Victor SnowWebster, NYWR0.8 pts56% role · 64% conf.5′8″ · 170 lbTransfer infrom Buffalo
#5Davion DozierMoody, ALWR0.7 pts50% role · 64% conf.6′3″ · 195 lbTransfer infrom App State
#13Tyran WarrenPicayune, MSWR0.6 pts49% role · 64% conf.6′3″ · 180 lbTransfer infrom Alcorn State
#2Joshisa TraderHollywood, FLWR0.6 pts44% role · 64% conf.6′1″ · 190 lbTransfer infrom Miami
#86Hunter ProvienceSan Diego, CATE0.6 pts43% role · 64% conf.6′5″ · 245 lbTransfer infrom Montana State
#50Daniel CruzNorth Richland Hills, TXOL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 315 lbTransfer infrom Texas
#62Jimarion McCrimonKissimmee, FLOL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 295 lbTransfer infrom East Carolina
#55Katron EvansNorfolk, VAOL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 336 lbTransfer infrom Marshall
#7Davion GauseOpa Locka, FLRB0.5 pts57% role · 76% conf.5′11″ · 212 lbTransfer infrom North Carolina
#82Chance RobinsonFort Lauderdale, FLWR0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 205 lbTransfer infrom Miami
#88Vander PloogFullerton, CATE0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′6″ · 230 lbTransfer infrom Oregon
#4King MackMiami, FLS0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 195 lbTransfer infrom Penn State
#20Ondre EvansFranklin, TNDB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 187 lbTransfer infrom Georgia
#10Ty WhiteBuford, GADB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 176 lbTransfer infrom North Carolina
#5Harvey Dyson IIICedar Hill, TXLB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 248 lbTransfer infrom Tulane
#96Jackson WallerKaty, TXP0.3 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 214 lbTransfer infrom SMU
#11CJ BaileyMiami, FLQB4.0 pts74% starter · 76% conf.6′6″ · 213 lbReturning
#80Ethan DowdyPowhatan, VAWR0.8 pts60% role · 64% conf.6′2″ · 197 lbReturning
#8Keenan JacksonWaxhaw, NCWR0.7 pts54% role · 64% conf.6′3″ · 202 lbReturning
#12Teddy HoffmannDelray Beach, FLWR0.7 pts51% role · 64% conf.6′1″ · 181 lbReturning
#19Preston DouglasJupiter, FLTE0.6 pts47% role · 64% conf.6′3″ · 228 lbReturning
#79Kamen SmithWilkesboro, NCOT0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 325 lbReturning
#60Joseph CastanedaRaeford, NCOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 305 lbReturning
#90Josiah VictorLoganville, GAOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 312 lbReturning
#52Kage PayneCincinnati, OHOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 290 lbReturning
#76Michael GibbsWilmington, NCOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 303 lbReturning
#56Omarian AbrahamFort Lauderdale, FLOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 297 lbReturning
#64Rico JacksonFort Lauderdale, FLOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′6″ · 322 lbReturning
#55Rylan VannCary, NCOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 285 lbReturning
#72Spike Sowells Jr.Louisville, KYOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 312 lbReturning
#54Teague AndersenLehi, UTOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 322 lbReturning
#70TK WhitsetAntioch, TNOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 300 lbReturning
#78Trent MitchellGastonia, NCOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 316 lbReturning
#71Yousef MugharbilMurphy, NCOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 322 lbReturning
#1Jayden ScottStockbridge, GARB0.6 pts66% role · 76% conf.5′10″ · 225 lbReturning
#92Chase BondMassillon, OHDE0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 265 lbReturning
#13Joseph AdedireArlington, TXDE0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 260 lbReturning
#34Colby CronkPalm Coast, FLDT0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 270 lbReturning
#88Isaiah ShirleyBoone, NCDT0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 280 lbReturning
#57Steven Stokes IIIWilmington, NCDT0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 313 lbReturning
#47Adrian FarrowMiami, FLDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 265 lbReturning
#99AJ PrimFoley, ALDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 287 lbReturning
#37Addison CarlsonHolly Springs, NCWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 186 lbReturning
#6Ashton LocklearApex, NCWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 188 lbReturning
#36Cameron CornthwaiteApex, NCWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′9″ · 183 lbReturning
#21Je'rel BolderWingate, NCWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 212 lbReturning
#28Sam DoddRaleigh, NCWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 199 lbReturning
#44Gus RitcheyPittsboro, NCTE0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 235 lbReturning
#87Ian FlyntKaty, TXTE0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 265 lbReturning
#6Asaad Brown Jr.Chesapeake, VACB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 199 lbReturning
#7Brian Nelson IIPearland, TXCB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 197 lbReturning
#12Caden GordonLake Worth, FLCB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 194 lbReturning
#27Cam StrongAnderson, SCCB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 183 lbReturning
#38DJ DillardCollinsville, VACB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′8″ · 165 lbReturning
#8Isaiah CrowellKernersville, NCCB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 185 lbReturning
#22Jackson VickBailey, NCCB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 190 lbReturning
#14Jaren SensabaughNashville, TNCB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 190 lbReturning
#24Michael TateJacksonville, NCCB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 180 lbReturning
#29Brody BarnhardtCornelius, NCS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 190 lbReturning
#49Hampton RoderickWilmington, NCS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 175 lbReturning
#2Ronnie Royal IIIGulf Shores, ALS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′9″ · 185 lbReturning
#39Tristan ClappConcord, NCS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 179 lbReturning
#3Tristan TeasdellLeesburg, VAS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 190 lbReturning
#15AJ RichardsonKings Mountain, NCLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 235 lbReturning
#31Bailey BensonCovington, GALB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 207 lbReturning
#19Cole WilsonFayetteville, NCLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 206 lbReturning
#48Hunter JacksonRaleigh, NCLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 217 lbReturning
#47Jackson MastorMooresville, NCLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 197 lbReturning
#42Ke'Von CarterSan Antonio, TXLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 223 lbReturning
#35LaCorian HodgeArlington, TXLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 217 lbReturning
#38Logan FoustGraham, NCLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 205 lbReturning
#33Nathan HuffmanApex, NCLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 187 lbReturning
#46Ryan KlimpHometown not listedLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 215 lbReturning
#25Sterling DixonSpanish Fort, ALLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 221 lbReturning
#30Zane WilliamsWake Forest, NCLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 228 lbReturning
#25Darius JohnsonHendersonville, TNRB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 205 lbReturning
#20Deandre DesinorDelray Beach, FLRB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 183 lbReturning
#26Isiah JonesRolesville, NCRB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′8″ · 200 lbReturning
#14Jonathan PaylorBurlington, NCRB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′9″ · 182 lbReturning
#91Nick KonieczynskiMatthews, NCPK0.3 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 215 lbReturning
#97Cristian HarthanWaxhaw, NCP0.3 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 195 lbReturning
#92Aiden AriasFort Lauderdale, FLLS0.3 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 207 lbReturning
#94Kanoah VinesettRock Hill, SCPK0.3 pts44% role · 52% conf.6′1″ · 205 lbReturning
#10Will WilsonColumbia, SCQB0.2 pts4% starter · 76% conf.6′1″ · 230 lbReturning
#15Hudson WilharmWilmington, NCQB0.2 pts4% starter · 40% conf.6′5″ · 195 lbReturning
#73Brady SakowitzRichmond, VAOT0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′6″ · 328 lbNew / unverified
#56Brody SmithKnoxville, TNOT0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′5″ · 303 lbNew / unverified
#93Carmelo McKenzieYork, PAOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 313 lbNew / unverified
#67Henri ParisKinston, NCOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 295 lbNew / unverified
#53Matthew ClayRaleigh, NCOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 300 lbNew / unverified
#75Tre AikenClinton, SCOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 310 lbNew / unverified
#95JJ Ferguson Jr.St. Petersburg, FLDE0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 255 lbNew / unverified
#80Damaad LewisCharlotte, NCDT0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 260 lbNew / unverified
#98Fabian KimbroughStephens City, VADT0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 283 lbNew / unverified
#22Aiden SmallsClayton, NCWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′11″ · 183 lbNew / unverified
#83Amiri AckerIva, SCWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 190 lbNew / unverified
#89Jai RichburgWinston-Salem, NCWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 190 lbNew / unverified
#35Jason SchuttMooresville, NCWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′7″ · 160 lbNew / unverified
#39Landon ThompsonCharlotte, NCWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 180 lbNew / unverified
#85Tyreek CopperKinston, NCWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 185 lbNew / unverified
#84Stephen BrownChicago, ILTE0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′6″ · 200 lbNew / unverified
#45Tex VaughnKings Mountain, NCTE0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 231 lbNew / unverified
#28Dy'Lan JohnsonBaldwyn, MSCB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 185 lbNew / unverified
#30Jordan JacksonWinter Park, FLCB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′11″ · 165 lbNew / unverified
#26Jordyn BestHopkins, SCCB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′10″ · 171 lbNew / unverified
#21Chino AguirreLocust Grove, GAS0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 205 lbNew / unverified
#16Pluto SurrattShelby, NCS0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′11″ · 196 lbNew / unverified
#36Tristen HillLawrenceville, GAS0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′10″ · 192 lbNew / unverified
#32Caleb GordonGastonia, NCLB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′11″ · 226 lbNew / unverified
#19Da'Karri NelsonLivingston, ALLB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 232 lbNew / unverified
#52David CollinsWilmington, NCLB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 215 lbNew / unverified
#58Elijah SatchellCamden, NJLB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 229 lbNew / unverified
#45Isaac PetersLake Mary, FLLB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 250 lbNew / unverified
#44Jordan MoretaUnion City, NJLB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 223 lbNew / unverified
#53Josh Warren Jr.Belle Glade, FLLB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 235 lbNew / unverified
#43Koby SarkodieBaltimore, MDLB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 215 lbNew / unverified
#37Lawrence Brown Jr.Grayson, GALB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 209 lbNew / unverified
#0Popo AguirreFayetteville, GALB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 235 lbNew / unverified
#33Ziggy MoorePittsburgh, PALB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 210 lbNew / unverified
#16Parker ThompsonDallas, TXQB0.2 pts4% starter · 28% conf.6′2″ · 181 lbNew / unverified
#24Dylan McCoyGrayson, GARB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′8″ · 197 lbNew / unverified
#34Noah MossDaphne, ALRB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 200 lbNew / unverified
#29RJ BoydWaycross, GARB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′10″ · 215 lbNew / unverified
#60Taylon TranelCameron, NCLS0.1 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′10″ · 215 lbNew / unverified
2026 schedule
The path that shapes the projection.
The model prices every scheduled game individually. Home field, neutral sites, completed results and opponent rating feed the expected-win total shown above.
WeekOpponentSiteDate / result
1VirginiaConference · Scott Stadium · 4M 24–27 · 45% win
AwayAug 293:30 PM EDT · model ↗2
RichmondNon-conference · Carter-Finley Stadium · 4M 11–42 · 95% win
HomeSep 117:00 PM EDT · model ↗3VanderbiltNon-conference · FirstBank Stadium · 4M 25–31 · 35% win
AwaySep 1912:45 PM EDT · model ↗4
App StateNon-conference · Carter-Finley Stadium · 4M 18–35 · 82% win
HomeSep 2612:00 AM EDT · model ↗5LouisvilleConference · Carter-Finley Stadium · 4M 26–25 · 47% win
HomeOct 312:00 AM EDT · model ↗6
Wake ForestConference · Carter-Finley Stadium · 4M 23–27 · 58% win
HomeOct 1012:00 AM EDT · model ↗8
StanfordConference · Stanford Stadium · 4M 29–23 · 63% win
AwayOct 2310:30 PM EDT · model ↗9
CaliforniaConference · Carter-Finley Stadium · 4M 22–30 · 67% win
HomeOct 3112:00 AM EDT · model ↗10
DukeConference · Carter-Finley Stadium · 4M 25–29 · 59% win
HomeNov 712:00 AM EST · model ↗11
SyracuseConference · Carter-Finley Stadium · 4M 20–32 · 74% win
HomeNov 1412:00 AM EST · model ↗12
Florida StateConference · Doak Campbell Stadium · 4M 25–29 · 43% win
AwayNov 2112:00 AM EST · model ↗13
North CarolinaConference · Kenan Stadium · 4M 28–24 · 59% win
AwayNov 2812:00 AM EST · model ↗
Range of outcomes
The projection is the middle—not the ceiling.
Floor case3 wins
Instability at premium positions turns swing games into losses.
4M midpoint6 wins
The roster performs close to its current power and schedule baseline.
Ceiling case8 wins
Quarterback play and line continuity outperform the preseason prior.
The betting lens
Price and matchup decide the play.
No team is an automatic bet or fade. The goal is to identify when the market's story about NC State diverges from the football conditions required to cover.
The number is below a full possession and NC State's best unit attacks a verified opponent weakness.
The case rests on ranking, résumé or home-field narrative rather than a repeatable down-to-down advantage.
Early-down success rate, pressure allowed and defensive explosive-play rate. Two stable categories would justify an upgrade.
Season-defining questionIs there enough week-to-week consistency to turn ACC opportunity into a conference-title run?