The 2026 outlook
Will the roster hold up in the Sun Belt's physical, high-variance weekly environment?
Arkansas State opens No. 114 nationally and No. 11 of 14 in the Sun Belt. The 4M baseline rates the roster 10.3 points below an average FBS team on a neutral field and projects 5 regular-season wins.
Arkansas State begins below the FBS average, so progress should first appear in functional line play, fewer negative snaps and cleaner late-game execution. That does not make this team an automatic fade; large spreads become valuable when the favorite lacks the pace or explosiveness to create margin.
Depth is the central concern. Transfers can raise the first unit quickly, but the two-deep has to hold up across twelve games. The first month should reveal whether the rebuild created real competition or simply moved uncertainty from one position group to another.
The schedule projects among the country's most manageable at No. 117. That creates upside in the win column, but also a pricing trap: the record can improve faster than the underlying team quality, inviting bettors to pay for results that came against limited resistance.
Personnel command center
Who is back, who arrived and who has to matter.
The roster is grouped by continuity because returning snaps and proven transfer production are more useful than raw headcount. “New / unverified” means the player did not match last season's roster or the incoming portal file—not that the player is necessarily a freshman.
Head coachButch Jones26–37 over the available CFBD career window
Staff continuityReturning head coachContinuity is treated as context, not an automatic upgrade.
Portal ledger25 in · 37 outImpact is weighted by rating, position and prior usage.
Position-group modelPremium roles separated.Fifty is FBS average. Quarterback includes the modeled starter probability, not merely the best name in the room.
4M player valueHighest-leverage rolesMaximum point value assumes the player is fully unavailable and is reduced by status probability.
PlayerPos.4M valueSizeContinuity
#7Drew DickeyAustin, TXQB0.9 pts21% starter · 40% conf.6′1″ · 211 lbTransfer infrom Vanderbilt
#12Jeremy St-HilaireMontreal, PQQB0.9 pts21% starter · 40% conf.6′4″ · 220 lbTransfer infrom Vanderbilt
#9Trey OwensHouston, TXQB0.9 pts21% starter · 40% conf.6′5″ · 220 lbTransfer infrom Texas
#16Joshua BurrellBlythewood, SCTE0.6 pts51% role · 64% conf.6′2″ · 233 lbTransfer infrom Furman
#74Landry CannonDestrehan, LAOL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 310 lbTransfer infrom Tulane
#70Manasse IteteKinshasaOL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 308 lbTransfer infrom Florida State
#27AJ ThomasZachary, LADE0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 242 lbTransfer infrom McNeese
#30Gavin TaylorYonkers, NYDE0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 247 lbTransfer infrom Central Connecticut
#45Nicolas KalumeWaterfordDE0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 244 lbTransfer infrom Maine
#11Sultan BadmusBowie, MDDE0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 275 lbTransfer infrom Temple
#92Elias ShermanTulsa, OKDT0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 291 lbTransfer infrom Maine
#98Shakai WoodsDouglasville, GADT0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 305 lbTransfer infrom Middle Tennessee
#91Tyeland ColemanTerry, MSDT0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 319 lbTransfer infrom Florida State
#13Boski BarrettKnoxville, TNWR0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 178 lbTransfer infrom Vanderbilt
#19Jaden HammEudora, KSTE0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′6″ · 252 lbTransfer infrom Kansas
#0Dontrae HendersonCharlotte, NCCB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 184 lbTransfer infrom Indiana
#2Jaylen HeywardRockledge, FLCB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 189 lbTransfer infrom UCF
#12Bryson RossSammamish, WAS0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 190 lbTransfer infrom Portland State
#5Five HamiltonStockbridge, GAS0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 178 lbTransfer infrom Kennesaw State
#4Makai ShahidGahanna, OHS0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 197 lbTransfer infrom Youngstown State
#24Joshua OforJonesboro, GALB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 224 lbTransfer infrom NC State
#9Kam MooreSanford, FLLB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 223 lbTransfer infrom UCF
#90Daniel VuckovicKildeer, ILP0.3 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 214 lbTransfer infrom Northern Illinois
#6Ethan CrawfordTuscaloosa, ALQB1.2 pts31% starter · 64% conf.6′0″ · 201 lbReturning
#2Chauncy CobbClewiston, FLWR0.8 pts58% role · 64% conf.5′6″ · 161 lbReturning
#3Hunter SummersProsper, TXWR0.7 pts57% role · 64% conf.6′3″ · 165 lbReturning
#0Nana BurrisUnion, SCWR0.6 pts48% role · 64% conf.5′11″ · 195 lbReturning
#63Aiden KehmLake Oswego, OROL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 324 lbReturning
#55Aleric WatsonMurfreesboro, TNOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 333 lbReturning
#79Baker NorthMission, KSOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 329 lbReturning
#51Cade ChannellDora, ALOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 294 lbReturning
#58Cameron AmbrosePinson, ALOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 275 lbReturning
#57Dan'tay Ward Jr.Waco, TXOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′6″ · 309 lbReturning
#77Gabe FortsonKennesaw, GAOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 317 lbReturning
#52Mason MyersMoody, ALOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 289 lbReturning
#64Noah HackerNashville, TNOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′7″ · 294 lbReturning
#76Trason HuntBentonville, AROL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 309 lbReturning
#68Tristian SmithCrossett, AROL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 319 lbReturning
#50Wil SaxtonBenton, MSOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 314 lbReturning
#11Tyler LittleGalena, KSTE0.6 pts49% role · 64% conf.6′4″ · 245 lbReturning
#90Lincoln StueveStilwell, KSDE0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 243 lbReturning
#96Ronnie BlossomVicksburg, MSDE0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 225 lbReturning
#42Shaun WilliamsColumbus, MSDE0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 266 lbReturning
#10Tony CarterNashville, TNDE0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 259 lbReturning
#54Ryan ReeseBirmingham, ALDT0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 272 lbReturning
#5Kenyon ClayUnion, MSRB0.6 pts70% role · 76% conf.6′1″ · 223 lbReturning
#10Jaylen BonelliMiami, FLWR0.5 pts52% role · 64% conf.5′11″ · 175 lbReturning
#4Devin SpencerRiverview, FLRB0.5 pts67% role · 76% conf.5′10″ · 183 lbReturning
#17Jabari BushKaty, TXTE0.5 pts50% role · 64% conf.6′4″ · 230 lbReturning
#14Andre FeastMissouri City, TXWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 186 lbReturning
#15Andrew JonesJonesboro, ARWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 160 lbReturning
#84Reed LinderMemphis, TNWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 177 lbReturning
#18Romel StevensWillis, TXWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 210 lbReturning
#89Andrew StatenJacksonville, FLTE0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 230 lbReturning
#41Coleman ParmerBaxley, GATE0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 209 lbReturning
#82Ezra BurgessRabun Gap, GATE0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 243 lbReturning
#1Braden JacksonGulf Shores, ALCB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 177 lbReturning
#7Courtney PattersonOcala, FLCB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 183 lbReturning
#13Kyle WilliamsSlidell, LACB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 189 lbReturning
#29Luke WishamZachary, LACB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 184 lbReturning
#17Marquis WilliamsMadison, MSCB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 188 lbReturning
#6AG McGheeChipley, FLS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 187 lbReturning
#8Brandon BarnesDallas, TXS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 189 lbReturning
#15Brandon GreilLittle Rock, ARS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 182 lbReturning
#19James Reed IIINashville, TNS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 187 lbReturning
#16Joe DrewBlackshear, GAS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 215 lbReturning
#18Malekhi WeedonSuwanee, GAS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 201 lbReturning
#21Malik McConicoOcala, FLS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 187 lbReturning
#28Daniel DemeryFlower Mound, TXLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 225 lbReturning
#22Nigel NelsonPensacola, FLLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 216 lbReturning
#30Damon SisaGermantown, TNRB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′8″ · 160 lbReturning
#24Nasir AllenOcala, FLRB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 174 lbReturning
#25Clayton AmayaSpring Branch, TXPK0.3 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 199 lbReturning
#42Kyle NillMcKinney, TXLS0.3 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 205 lbReturning
#34Clune Van AndelGrand Rapids, MIPK0.3 pts44% role · 52% conf.6′0″ · 210 lbReturning
#65Cape JohnsonWichita Falls, TXOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 303 lbNew / unverified
#69Cooper SherrodCollierville, TNOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 305 lbNew / unverified
#75JB HoehnMemphis, TNOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′5″ · 317 lbNew / unverified
#78Josh AustinPflugerville, TXOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 336 lbNew / unverified
#72Sterling WigginsWoodbridge, VAOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′6″ · 317 lbNew / unverified
#53Talan ChandlerNevada, MOOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 299 lbNew / unverified
#71Tanner WelchFlowood, MSOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′8″ · 326 lbNew / unverified
#14Donquarius ParkerDurham, NCDE0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 244 lbNew / unverified
#34Mckinley McshanLoganville, GADE0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 241 lbNew / unverified
#20TJ GrantTuscaloosa, ALDE0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 238 lbNew / unverified
#94Jakohri JohnsonDuncanville, TXDT0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 294 lbNew / unverified
#44Sam HultzCollierville, TNDT0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 281 lbNew / unverified
#97Tavon BellWinnsboro, LADT0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 275 lbNew / unverified
#99TJ SpannClinton, MSDT0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 307 lbNew / unverified
#93Trent MappLawrenceville, GADT0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 284 lbNew / unverified
#47Trey BridgesPetal, MSDT0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 263 lbNew / unverified
#20Mason SchubertStillwater, OKQB0.2 pts5% starter · 28% conf.6′3″ · 188 lbNew / unverified
#85Brandon GollidayAntioch, TNWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 183 lbNew / unverified
#81Dallas BoozerProsper, TXWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 175 lbNew / unverified
#21Deshaun FeddCordele, GAWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 175 lbNew / unverified
#80Kena RegoHoover, ALWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 171 lbNew / unverified
#88Dawson McfadinConway, ARTE0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 227 lbNew / unverified
#33KeAndre FordNashville, TNCB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′9″ · 187 lbNew / unverified
#3Noah FloresSandy, UTCB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′9″ · 181 lbNew / unverified
#36Rayquan WilliamsGermantown, TNCB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 165 lbNew / unverified
#32Paul RisperMacon, GAS0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 173 lbNew / unverified
#26Rukevwe EruwetaghwareWylie, TXS0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 192 lbNew / unverified
#37Ashton MooreBrandon, MSLB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 193 lbNew / unverified
#25Keoni DennyRiverview, FLLB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 230 lbNew / unverified
#38Noah HamlinMilton, FLLB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 201 lbNew / unverified
#35Rasheem TurnerSanford, FLLB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′10″ · 219 lbNew / unverified
#23Robert StevensWashington, DCLB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 216 lbNew / unverified
#28Chavel WilliamsHattiesburg, MSRB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′9″ · 180 lbNew / unverified
#8Corey ReddickWest Palm Beach, FLRB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′10″ · 175 lbNew / unverified
#22Ezell JollyHouston, TXRB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 194 lbNew / unverified
#23Solomon BaggettOcean Springs, MSRB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′10″ · 196 lbNew / unverified
#40Wells StanleyFranklin, TNP0.1 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 205 lbNew / unverified
#88Riley SmithOdessa, FLLS0.1 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 205 lbNew / unverified
#87Sam BoozerLittle Rock, ARLS0.1 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 215 lbNew / unverified
2026 schedule
The path that shapes the projection.
The model prices every scheduled game individually. Home field, neutral sites, completed results and opponent rating feed the expected-win total shown above.
WeekOpponentSiteDate / result
1MemphisNon-conference · Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium · 4M 21–30 · 32% win
AwaySep 57:00 PM EDT · model ↗2
West GeorgiaNon-conference · Centennial Bank Stadium · 4M 21–30 · 69% win
HomeSep 127:00 PM EDT · model ↗3TCUNon-conference · Amon G. Carter Stadium · 4M 18–34 · 19% win
AwaySep 198:00 PM EDT · model ↗4
Kennesaw StateNon-conference · Centennial Bank Stadium · 4M 26–26 · 51% win
HomeSep 267:00 PM EDT · model ↗5
LouisianaConference · Cajun Field · 4M 24–28 · 43% win
AwayOct 312:00 AM EDT · model ↗6
South AlabamaConference · Centennial Bank Stadium · 4M 26–26 · 52% win
HomeOct 87:30 PM EDT · model ↗7
Southern MissConference · M. M. Roberts Stadium · 4M 23–27 · 40% win
AwayOct 1712:00 AM EDT · model ↗8
Georgia StateConference · Centennial Bank Stadium · 4M 23–29 · 62% win
HomeOct 247:00 PM EDT · model ↗10
UL MonroeConference · Centennial Bank Stadium · 4M 22–29 · 63% win
HomeNov 73:00 PM EST · model ↗11
Coastal CarolinaConference · Brooks Stadium (SC) · 4M 25–26 · 47% win
AwayNov 1412:00 AM EST · model ↗12
Louisiana TechConference · Joe Aillet Stadium · 4M 22–28 · 39% win
AwayNov 2112:00 AM EST · model ↗13
TroyConference · Centennial Bank Stadium · 4M 25–25 · 51% win
HomeNov 283:00 PM EST · model ↗
Range of outcomes
The projection is the middle—not the ceiling.
Floor case3 wins
Instability at premium positions turns swing games into losses.
4M midpoint5 wins
The roster performs close to its current power and schedule baseline.
Ceiling case7 wins
Quarterback play and line continuity outperform the preseason prior.
The betting lens
Price and matchup decide the play.
No team is an automatic bet or fade. The goal is to identify when the market's story about Arkansas State diverges from the football conditions required to cover.
The spread is large, the favorite plays slowly, and the game script allows Arkansas State to stay inside the number without chasing points.
The offense must play from behind, protect for long-yardage throws and generate explosives simply to reach the market expectation.
Quarterback efficiency, offensive-line cohesion and whether the defense can get off the field without blitzing itself out of structure.
Season-defining questionWill the roster hold up in the Sun Belt's physical, high-variance weekly environment?