The 2026 outlook
Can this team build a postseason résumé without a conference-championship safety net?
UConn opens No. 95 nationally and No. 2 of 2 in the Independent. The 4M baseline rates the roster 6.3 points below an average FBS team on a neutral field and projects 5.6 regular-season wins.
UConn profiles as competitive but opponent-sensitive. It can win when the matchup protects its weak points, yet it does not have enough week-to-week talent separation to survive poor early-down offense, lost field position and a negative turnover margin at the same time.
Depth is the central concern. Transfers can raise the first unit quickly, but the two-deep has to hold up across twelve games. The first month should reveal whether the rebuild created real competition or simply moved uncertainty from one position group to another.
The schedule grades No. 93 nationally—enough resistance to expose weaknesses without defining the entire year. A small group of swing games should determine whether UConn beats its 5.6-win projection, placing extra value on special teams, fourth-down decisions and late-game quarterback play.
Personnel command center
Who is back, who arrived and who has to matter.
The roster is grouped by continuity because returning snaps and proven transfer production are more useful than raw headcount. “New / unverified” means the player did not match last season's roster or the incoming portal file—not that the player is necessarily a freshman.
Head coachJason Candle43–23 over the available CFBD career window
Staff continuityNew head coachReplaces Jim Mora
Portal ledger53 in · 45 outImpact is weighted by rating, position and prior usage.
Position-group modelPremium roles separated.Fifty is FBS average. Quarterback includes the modeled starter probability, not merely the best name in the room.
4M player valueHighest-leverage rolesMaximum point value assumes the player is fully unavailable and is reduced by status probability.
PlayerPos.4M valueSizeContinuity
#7Kalieb OsbornePontiac, MIQB4.5 pts94% starter · 76% conf.6′3″ · 204 lbTransfer infrom Toledo
#0Ky WilsonFarrell, PAWR0.7 pts54% role · 64% conf.5′9″ · 180 lbTransfer infrom Youngstown State
#11Ryder TreadwayFrisco, TXWR0.6 pts45% role · 64% conf.6′3″ · 193 lbTransfer infrom Toledo
#14Emanuel RossJackson, NJWR0.6 pts45% role · 64% conf.6′2″ · 202 lbTransfer infrom Syracuse
#19Javon BrownWilliston, FLWR0.6 pts44% role · 64% conf.6′4″ · 198 lbTransfer infrom Toledo
#62Ben MulhollandCypress, TXOL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 315 lbTransfer infrom Houston Christian
#79Christian RichterBaltimore, MDOL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′6″ · 300 lbTransfer infrom Marshall
#76Dominic RiveraOlmsted Falls, OHOL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′8″ · 325 lbTransfer infrom Toledo
#67Hannes HammerCologneOL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′7″ · 313 lbTransfer infrom Virginia Tech
#78Isiah SwitzerCleveland, OHOL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′6″ · 285 lbTransfer infrom Toledo
#74Nathan PahanichPrinceton, NJOL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 291 lbTransfer infrom Wake Forest
#73Raphael Greene-NyarkoCincinnati, OHOL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′6″ · 340 lbTransfer infrom Toledo
#58Terrence MooreMassillon, OHOL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 305 lbTransfer infrom Toledo
#24Dashun ReederGreenville, SCRB0.5 pts47% role · 64% conf.6′0″ · 190 lbTransfer infrom Northwestern
#15Cam AbshireRoanoke, VAWR0.5 pts42% role · 64% conf.6′4″ · 185 lbTransfer infrom Oklahoma State
#17Shamar Riser-PressleyDetroit, MIEDGE0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′6″ · 271 lbTransfer infrom Buffalo
#97Chamberlain CampbellSt. Petersburg, FLDE0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′6″ · 240 lbTransfer infrom Toledo
#52Joshua MickensIndianapolis, INDE0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 250 lbTransfer infrom Ohio State
#25Odera OrizuCharlotte, NCDE0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 256 lbTransfer infrom NC State
#14Desmond AladugeMilford, DEDT0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 285 lbTransfer infrom Duke
#15Anas LuqmanCincinnati, OHDL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 260 lbTransfer infrom Ohio
#55Andrew LaurichYorkville, ILDL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 295 lbTransfer infrom Colorado State
#11Avery DunnShaker Heights, OHDL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 250 lbTransfer infrom Toledo
#95Melvin Hills IIINew Iberia, LADL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 302 lbTransfer infrom Texas
#2Tahjae MullixCovington, GADL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 282 lbTransfer infrom Oregon State
#22Jaden HartMichigan City, INRB0.4 pts50% role · 64% conf.5′11″ · 210 lbTransfer infrom Syracuse
#2Jediyah WilloughbyFairburn, GAWR0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 202 lbTransfer infrom Toledo
#9Julian AllenSt. Petersburg, FLWR0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 188 lbTransfer infrom Toledo
#16Kamren FlowersDetroit, MIWR0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 170 lbTransfer infrom Toledo
#8Zy'marion LangSarasota, FLWR0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 180 lbTransfer infrom Toledo
#80Alex GodavitarneWashington, DCTE0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 235 lbTransfer infrom Wheeling
#86Matt RaganWestboro, MATE0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 246 lbTransfer infrom Boston College
#23Cyncir BowersHarrisburg, PARB0.4 pts56% role · 76% conf.5′10″ · 191 lbTransfer infrom West Virginia
#8CJ Bell Jr.Mansfield, MADB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 186 lbTransfer infrom Iowa
#10Jayden DavisFresno, CADB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 192 lbTransfer infrom Fresno State
#13Jayden PriceSeven Fields, PADB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 185 lbTransfer infrom Toledo
#6Renick DorilasNewark, NJDB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 168 lbTransfer infrom Rutgers
#23Steve MillerGreensboro, GADB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 185 lbTransfer infrom USC
#21Tracy RevelsTexarkana, TXDB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 184 lbTransfer infrom Michigan State
#7Tyler McKinstryAtlanta, GADB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.5′9″ · 182 lbTransfer infrom Toledo
#24Zion ParetMiami, FLDB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 180 lbTransfer infrom Florida Atlantic
#6Trey CornistCincinnati, OHRB0.4 pts55% role · 76% conf.5′11″ · 210 lbTransfer infrom Central Michigan
#44John ListaFair Haven, NJLB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 220 lbTransfer infrom Pennsylvania
#0K'Von ShermanPearland, TXLB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 236 lbTransfer infrom Toledo
#20Luke MurphyMassillon, OHLB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 235 lbTransfer infrom Coastal Carolina
#5Rickey WilliamsAkron, OHLB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 230 lbTransfer infrom Toledo
#27Terris DudleyHilliard, OHLB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 200 lbTransfer infrom NC State
#9Zakaih SaezLake Worth, FLLB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 230 lbTransfer infrom Oregon State
#89Mike BakerWilmette, ILPK0.3 pts38% role · 40% conf.5′9″ · 185 lbTransfer infrom Ole Miss
#49Tommy WarnerMelbourne, VICP0.3 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 199 lbTransfer infrom Northwest Missouri State
#59David LaGangaStaten Island, NYLS0.3 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 212 lbTransfer infrom Kentucky
#4Jake MerklingerSavannah, GAQB0.2 pts4% starter · 40% conf.6′3″ · 215 lbTransfer infrom Tennessee
#5Shamar PorterNashville, TNWR0.7 pts52% role · 64% conf.6′3″ · 210 lbReturning
#53Christos ZigoumisOttawa, ONOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′6″ · 240 lbReturning
#52Deron McLaughlinPark Ridge, NJOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 270 lbReturning
#59Finn WilkinsHerndon, VAOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 315 lbReturning
#75Hill GreenleeDallas, TXOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′9″ · 295 lbReturning
#51Joe McGannLagrangeville, NYOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′6″ · 290 lbReturning
#56Tamarus WalkerBaltimore, MDOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 320 lbReturning
#69Ty ChanLowell, MAOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 320 lbReturning
#84Eddie DreschEphrata, PADL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 225 lbReturning
#94Matt HoffmanCheltenham, PADL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 250 lbReturning
#25Daniel RoseLincoln, RIWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 150 lbReturning
#85Drew KronHebron, CTWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 185 lbReturning
#17Teddy WilliamsPortland, CTWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 180 lbReturning
#87Clemens RichterDresdenTE0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′6″ · 240 lbReturning
#42Mike BurtonWilton, CTTE0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 250 lbReturning
#83Xavier WatsonWaverly, NYTE0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 210 lbReturning
#22Axavier Bridges-BrooksUpper Marlboro, MDDB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 185 lbReturning
#33Carter BoskovichMission Viejo, CADB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′9″ · 185 lbReturning
#18Kylish HicksBaltimore, MDDB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 200 lbReturning
#12Saxton SuchanicYork, PADB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 180 lbReturning
#30Charles JohnsonKing George, VALB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 205 lbReturning
#39Charlie O'ConnorNew Canaan, CTLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 215 lbReturning
#19Ethan HoggGlenview, ILLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 240 lbReturning
#37Hayden PeggMalvern, PALB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 200 lbReturning
#29Lewenski YdoreMiami, FLLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 220 lbReturning
#26Soren RiefKillingly, CTRB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 220 lbReturning
#35Spencer SullinsAthens, TNP0.3 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 199 lbReturning
#24Tashi CrofutLake Oswego, ORLS0.3 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 215 lbReturning
#47Zach ChristinatNorwalk, CTLS0.3 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 210 lbReturning
#18Tyler SmithShelton, CTQB0.2 pts4% starter · 40% conf.6′1″ · 190 lbReturning
#12Tucker McDonaldHolden, MAQB0.1 pts4% starter · 64% conf.6′2″ · 200 lbReturning
#3Kenji ChristianBirmingham, ALRB0.4 pts43% role · 52% conf.6′2″ · 207 lbNew / unverified
#55Fred JohnsonCleveland, OHOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′5″ · 290 lbNew / unverified
#96Makijah LatikerFayetteville, NCEDGE0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′6″ · 250 lbNew / unverified
#91Mateo KipkeDexter, MIEDGE0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′5″ · 240 lbNew / unverified
#3Esean CarterDetroit, MIDT0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 285 lbNew / unverified
#81Logan BarnesMarion, INWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 180 lbNew / unverified
#4Braedyn MooreHamilton, OHDB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 204 lbNew / unverified
#28Elijah WhitakerGriffin, GADB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 175 lbNew / unverified
#26Shmar AkandePembroke Pines, FLDB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 186 lbNew / unverified
#36Tyler MarescotArmonk, NYDB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 180 lbNew / unverified
#47Jayden JonesMillville, NJLB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 210 lbNew / unverified
#13Bo PolstonIndianapolis, INQB0.2 pts4% starter · 28% conf.6′2″ · 200 lbNew / unverified
#20Shawn SimeonNaples, FLRB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′10″ · 180 lbNew / unverified
2026 schedule
The path that shapes the projection.
The model prices every scheduled game individually. Home field, neutral sites, completed results and opponent rating feed the expected-win total shown above.
WeekOpponentSiteDate / result
1LafayetteNon-conference · Pratt & Whitney Stadium · 4M 18–36 · 84% win
HomeSep 512:00 PM EDT · model ↗2MarylandNon-conference · Pratt & Whitney Stadium · 4M 27–25 · 46% win
HomeSep 123:30 PM EDT · model ↗3
Southern MissNon-conference · M. M. Roberts Stadium · 4M 26–27 · 49% win
AwaySep 197:00 PM EDT · model ↗4
Miami (OH)Non-conference · Yager Stadium · 4M 25–28 · 42% win
AwaySep 2612:00 AM EDT · model ↗5
SyracuseNon-conference · Pratt & Whitney Stadium · 4M 25–28 · 56% win
HomeOct 312:00 PM EDT · model ↗6
TempleNon-conference · Lincoln Financial Field · 4M 28–27 · 51% win
AwayOct 1012:00 AM EDT · model ↗8
MassachusettsNon-conference · Pratt & Whitney Stadium · 4M 18–36 · 85% win
HomeOct 237:00 PM EDT · model ↗9
Air ForceNon-conference · Falcon Stadium · 4M 28–30 · 48% win
AwayOct 313:00 PM EDT · model ↗10
North CarolinaNon-conference · Pratt & Whitney Stadium · 4M 27–27 · 50% win
HomeNov 712:00 PM EST · model ↗11
James MadisonNon-conference · Pratt & Whitney Stadium · 4M 29–24 · 39% win
HomeNov 1412:00 PM EST · model ↗12
Old DominionNon-conference · Pratt & Whitney Stadium · 4M 27–24 · 43% win
HomeNov 213:30 PM EST · model ↗13
WyomingNon-conference · War Memorial Stadium · 4M 26–25 · 53% win
AwayNov 2812:00 AM EST · model ↗
Range of outcomes
The projection is the middle—not the ceiling.
Floor case3 wins
Instability at premium positions turns swing games into losses.
4M midpoint6 wins
The roster performs close to its current power and schedule baseline.
Ceiling case8 wins
Quarterback play and line continuity outperform the preseason prior.
The betting lens
Price and matchup decide the play.
No team is an automatic bet or fade. The goal is to identify when the market's story about UConn diverges from the football conditions required to cover.
The spread is large, the favorite plays slowly, and the game script allows UConn to stay inside the number without chasing points.
The offense must play from behind, protect for long-yardage throws and generate explosives simply to reach the market expectation.
Quarterback efficiency, offensive-line cohesion and whether the defense can get off the field without blitzing itself out of structure.
Season-defining questionCan this team build a postseason résumé without a conference-championship safety net?