The 2026 outlook
Will the roster hold up in the Sun Belt's physical, high-variance weekly environment?
Louisiana opens No. 106 nationally and No. 9 of 14 in the Sun Belt. The 4M baseline rates the roster 9.0 points below an average FBS team on a neutral field and projects 5.5 regular-season wins.
Louisiana begins below the FBS average, so progress should first appear in functional line play, fewer negative snaps and cleaner late-game execution. That does not make this team an automatic fade; large spreads become valuable when the favorite lacks the pace or explosiveness to create margin.
Depth is the central concern. Transfers can raise the first unit quickly, but the two-deep has to hold up across twelve games. The first month should reveal whether the rebuild created real competition or simply moved uncertainty from one position group to another.
The schedule projects among the country's most manageable at No. 127. That creates upside in the win column, but also a pricing trap: the record can improve faster than the underlying team quality, inviting bettors to pay for results that came against limited resistance.
Personnel command center
Who is back, who arrived and who has to matter.
The roster is grouped by continuity because returning snaps and proven transfer production are more useful than raw headcount. “New / unverified” means the player did not match last season's roster or the incoming portal file—not that the player is necessarily a freshman.
Head coachMichael Desormeaux29–25 over the available CFBD career window
Staff continuityReturning head coachContinuity is treated as context, not an automatic upgrade.
Portal ledger5 in · 7 outImpact is weighted by rating, position and prior usage.
Position-group modelPremium roles separated.Fifty is FBS average. Quarterback includes the modeled starter probability, not merely the best name in the room.
4M player valueHighest-leverage rolesMaximum point value assumes the player is fully unavailable and is reduced by status probability.
PlayerPos.4M valueSizeContinuity
#22Anthony Reagan Jr.Woodbury, NJRB0.7 pts71% role · 64% conf.5′9″ · 185 lbTransfer infrom Howard
#61Jayce MitchellDestrehan, LAOL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 322 lbTransfer infrom Tulane
#17Tito ChikereSugar Land, TXDE0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 247 lbTransfer infrom East Texas A&M
#93Brodrick StewartArlington, TXDL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 305 lbTransfer infrom Tarleton State
#4Princeton MalbrueLafayette, LALB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 225 lbTransfer infrom LSU
#7Lunch WinfieldLutcher, LAQB3.6 pts66% starter · 64% conf.6′2″ · 225 lbReturning
#11Daniel BealeBaton Rouge, LAQB1.5 pts33% starter · 76% conf.6′2″ · 206 lbReturning
#6Shelton Sampson Jr.Baton Rouge, LAWR0.8 pts54% role · 64% conf.6′4″ · 206 lbReturning
#17Landon StrotherLafayette, LAWR0.7 pts50% role · 64% conf.6′1″ · 197 lbReturning
#85Landon BaptisteLafayette, LAWR0.6 pts47% role · 64% conf.6′4″ · 180 lbReturning
#88Caden JensenFlower Mound, TXTE0.6 pts54% role · 64% conf.6′6″ · 265 lbReturning
#9KeDarius WadeJackson, MSWR0.6 pts48% role · 64% conf.6′4″ · 200 lbReturning
#83Brock ChappellHolly Springs, NCTE0.6 pts49% role · 64% conf.6′5″ · 252 lbReturning
#2Rahji DennisNew Orleans, LAWR0.6 pts48% role · 64% conf.5′10″ · 175 lbReturning
#59Andrew MartinezMetairie, LAOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 306 lbReturning
#55Baylynn WilliamsPalestine, TXOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 318 lbReturning
#50Cooper FordhamPonte Vedra, FLOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 295 lbReturning
#71George JacksonStone Mountain, GAOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 315 lbReturning
#72J'Marion GoochGallatin, TNOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′7″ · 308 lbReturning
#60Jackson HammondLafayette, LAOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 300 lbReturning
#77Jakoby IsomHouston, TXOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 318 lbReturning
#73Jayden McAllisterMissouri City, TXOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 297 lbReturning
#75Kaden MoreauPineville, LAOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 305 lbReturning
#76Matthew BroussardThibodaux, LAOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 313 lbReturning
#52Ryder BentleyMonroe, LAOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′6″ · 300 lbReturning
#65Xzavier BrownAshdown, AROL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′6″ · 320 lbReturning
#57Zay AlexanderTupelo, MSOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′7″ · 322 lbReturning
#8Jaydon JohnsonMissouri City, TXWR0.6 pts48% role · 64% conf.6′2″ · 235 lbReturning
#41Chase EdwardsHouston, TXDE0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′7″ · 295 lbReturning
#9Lance WilliamsNew Orleans, LADE0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 233 lbReturning
#99Ashton WrightMobile, ALDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 298 lbReturning
#96Chase HowardBlount County, ALDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 260 lbReturning
#68Fitzgerald West Jr.Lafayette, LADL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 300 lbReturning
#98Jeramiah HoltsVinton, LADL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 245 lbReturning
#95Maxie Baudoin IVYoungsville, LADL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 300 lbReturning
#0Priest AsheCrowley, TXDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 235 lbReturning
#4Trenton ChaneyLutcher, LAWR0.5 pts49% role · 64% conf.5′9″ · 178 lbReturning
#15Ja'Corian NorrisPineville, LAWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 200 lbReturning
#10Russell BabineauxLafayette, LAWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′9″ · 178 lbReturning
#43Aiden FalgoutLafayette, LATE0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 235 lbReturning
#46Emiliano SoldevillaHouston, TXTE0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 246 lbReturning
#18Khristian MackintrushMcKinney, TXTE0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 231 lbReturning
#82Quandre CoatesAnahuac, TXTE0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 257 lbReturning
#44Teddy GawlikHouma, LATE0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 230 lbReturning
#24Steven BlancoSaint Martinville, LARB0.5 pts51% role · 64% conf.5′9″ · 215 lbReturning
#10Avery DemeryManvel, TXCB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 195 lbReturning
#11Brent Gordon Jr.Cecilia, LACB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 200 lbReturning
#18Cam RileyMonroe, LACB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 170 lbReturning
#13Curley Reed IIILake Charles, LACB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 200 lbReturning
#23Jeremiah MosesShreveport, LACB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 186 lbReturning
#22Kevin MalonePrichard, ALCB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′9″ · 172 lbReturning
#47Maurice Brown Jr.Lafayette, LACB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 173 lbReturning
#35Collin JacobLoreauville, LAS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 180 lbReturning
#26Kerry WilsonDestrehan, LAS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 200 lbReturning
#8Kody JacksonShreveport, LAS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 200 lbReturning
#24Lake BatesStonewall, LAS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 190 lbReturning
#21Maurion EleamMonroe, LAS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 180 lbReturning
#28Steven Ranel IIBaton Rouge, LAS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 205 lbReturning
#33AJ SpencerHouston, TXLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 205 lbReturning
#2Ashley WilliamsZachary, LALB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 260 lbReturning
#6Conor McPhersonMontgomery, ALLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 219 lbReturning
#7Ethan VealZachary, LALB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 215 lbReturning
#51Hayden DarbonneEunice, LALB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 235 lbReturning
#44Jake St. AndreHometown not listedLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 220 lbReturning
#16Kailep EdwardsNew Orleans, LALB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 220 lbReturning
#80Lester JonesBaton Rouge, LALB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 235 lbReturning
#3Micah JohnsonBaton Rouge, LALB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 232 lbReturning
#15Na'Tori BrownSouthaven, MSLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 248 lbReturning
#0Darrell SmithPicayune, MSRB0.4 pts48% role · 64% conf.5′8″ · 200 lbReturning
#20JJ GarnerTimpson, TXRB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 210 lbReturning
#25Brek SchultzDenham Springs, LAPK0.3 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′8″ · 185 lbReturning
#40Logan KlotzHometown not listedPK0.3 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 200 lbReturning
#95Tony SternerKingwood, TXPK0.3 pts44% role · 52% conf.6′0″ · 197 lbReturning
#3Coleman CarterNatchez, MSQB0.2 pts4% starter · 40% conf.6′1″ · 205 lbReturning
#16Sam AltmannLafayette, LAQB0.2 pts4% starter · 40% conf.6′3″ · 208 lbReturning
#66Colin HarringtonRichland, WAOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′7″ · 275 lbNew / unverified
#79David BakerNew Orleans, LAOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 379 lbNew / unverified
#74Drake PerryLafayette, LAOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 325 lbNew / unverified
#53Gunnar GoodwinCorinth, MSOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 296 lbNew / unverified
#69Jai'Vale Mays-HudsonDaphne, ALOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 300 lbNew / unverified
#67Jayden MichaelLutcher, LAOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 327 lbNew / unverified
#78Michael Bowens Jr.Brewton, ALOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′5″ · 318 lbNew / unverified
#58Trey ShawHattiesburg, MSOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 310 lbNew / unverified
#91Jordan PinnockBaton Rouge, LADL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 236 lbNew / unverified
#31Ty DominiqueSlidell, LADL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 225 lbNew / unverified
#97Xavier WatersHouston, TXDL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 315 lbNew / unverified
#80Jayden LewisCecilia, LAWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 185 lbNew / unverified
#87Kristion BrooksZachary, LAWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 176 lbNew / unverified
#86Jerry BirdlowSlidell, LATE0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 225 lbNew / unverified
#20Braylon WalkerLafayette, LACB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′9″ · 170 lbNew / unverified
#30Julius HarperPrentiss, MSCB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 175 lbNew / unverified
#27Edrick WilliamsDaphne, ALS0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 170 lbNew / unverified
#34Jayden ReedMonroe, LAS0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′11″ · 180 lbNew / unverified
#19Luke GreenLafayette, LAS0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 172 lbNew / unverified
#46Roderick BinghamPlaquemine, LAS0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′11″ · 161 lbNew / unverified
#25Jayden GlostonPrairieville, LADB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′11″ · 190 lbNew / unverified
#36Devin FranklinOak Grove, LALB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′5″ · 210 lbNew / unverified
#37Harrison KidderBaton Rouge, LALB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 198 lbNew / unverified
#45Patrick GossleeShreveport, LALB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 210 lbNew / unverified
#13Alex MunozLafayette, LAQB0.2 pts4% starter · 28% conf.5′10″ · 195 lbNew / unverified
#21Ke'Rynn SmithMetairie, LARB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′7″ · 173 lbNew / unverified
#29Owen MorrisNew Iberia, LARB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′9″ · 170 lbNew / unverified
#49Mason GoldingPerthP0.1 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 180 lbNew / unverified
#54Carson KraftOlathe, KSLS0.1 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 218 lbNew / unverified
#48Jackson VillaumeBaton Rouge, LALS0.1 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′9″ · 225 lbNew / unverified
2026 schedule
The path that shapes the projection.
The model prices every scheduled game individually. Home field, neutral sites, completed results and opponent rating feed the expected-win total shown above.
WeekOpponentSiteDate / result
1LamarNon-conference · Cajun Field · 4M 20–33 · 77% win
HomeSep 58:00 PM EDT · model ↗2USCNon-conference · Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum · 4M 16–39 · 10% win
AwaySep 1211:00 PM EDT · model ↗3
UABNon-conference · Cajun Field · 4M 25–29 · 58% win
HomeSep 198:00 PM EDT · model ↗4
CharlotteNon-conference · Jerry Richardson Stadium · 4M 28–23 · 61% win
AwaySep 2612:00 AM EDT · model ↗5
Arkansas StateConference · Cajun Field · 4M 24–28 · 57% win
HomeOct 312:00 AM EDT · model ↗6
Louisiana TechConference · Joe Aillet Stadium · 4M 24–28 · 41% win
AwayOct 1012:00 AM EDT · model ↗7
TroyConference · Cajun Field · 4M 25–26 · 53% win
HomeOct 1712:00 AM EDT · model ↗8
Southern MissConference · M. M. Roberts Stadium · 4M 25–27 · 44% win
AwayOct 2412:00 AM EDT · model ↗10
South AlabamaConference · Cajun Field · 4M 25–28 · 56% win
HomeNov 712:00 AM EST · model ↗11
UL MonroeConference · Malone Stadium · 4M 28–25 · 57% win
AwayNov 129:00 PM EST · model ↗12
Coastal CarolinaConference · Cajun Field · 4M 24–29 · 60% win
HomeNov 2112:00 AM EST · model ↗13
Georgia StateConference · Center Parc Stadium · 4M 28–25 · 56% win
AwayNov 2812:00 AM EST · model ↗
Range of outcomes
The projection is the middle—not the ceiling.
Floor case3 wins
Instability at premium positions turns swing games into losses.
4M midpoint6 wins
The roster performs close to its current power and schedule baseline.
Ceiling case8 wins
Quarterback play and line continuity outperform the preseason prior.
The betting lens
Price and matchup decide the play.
No team is an automatic bet or fade. The goal is to identify when the market's story about Louisiana diverges from the football conditions required to cover.
The spread is large, the favorite plays slowly, and the game script allows Louisiana to stay inside the number without chasing points.
The offense must play from behind, protect for long-yardage throws and generate explosives simply to reach the market expectation.
Quarterback efficiency, offensive-line cohesion and whether the defense can get off the field without blitzing itself out of structure.
Season-defining questionWill the roster hold up in the Sun Belt's physical, high-variance weekly environment?