The 2026 outlook
Will experienced line play and close-game execution create a MAC breakthrough?
Central Michigan opens No. 101 nationally and No. 5 of 13 in the MAC. The 4M baseline rates the roster 8.2 points below an average FBS team on a neutral field and projects 5.5 regular-season wins.
Central Michigan begins below the FBS average, so progress should first appear in functional line play, fewer negative snaps and cleaner late-game execution. That does not make this team an automatic fade; large spreads become valuable when the favorite lacks the pace or explosiveness to create margin.
Depth is the central concern. Transfers can raise the first unit quickly, but the two-deep has to hold up across twelve games. The first month should reveal whether the rebuild created real competition or simply moved uncertainty from one position group to another.
The schedule grades No. 106 nationally—enough resistance to expose weaknesses without defining the entire year. A small group of swing games should determine whether Central Michigan beats its 5.5-win projection, placing extra value on special teams, fourth-down decisions and late-game quarterback play.
Personnel command center
Who is back, who arrived and who has to matter.
The roster is grouped by continuity because returning snaps and proven transfer production are more useful than raw headcount. “New / unverified” means the player did not match last season's roster or the incoming portal file—not that the player is necessarily a freshman.
Head coachMatt Drinkall7–6 over the available CFBD career window
Staff continuityReturning head coachContinuity is treated as context, not an automatic upgrade.
Portal ledger12 in · 17 outImpact is weighted by rating, position and prior usage.
Position-group modelPremium roles separated.Fifty is FBS average. Quarterback includes the modeled starter probability, not merely the best name in the room.
4M player valueHighest-leverage rolesMaximum point value assumes the player is fully unavailable and is reduced by status probability.
PlayerPos.4M valueSizeContinuity
#31Jayden ClerveauxEverett, MARB0.7 pts75% role · 64% conf.5′11″ · 215 lbTransfer infrom Holy Cross
#88Jaden AllenSewell, NJTE0.6 pts44% role · 64% conf.6′3″ · 245 lbTransfer infrom Fordham
#55Losini MakaEwa Beach, HIOL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 310 lbTransfer infrom Georgetown
#56Nic DiSantoWyandotte, MIOL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 320 lbTransfer infrom Eastern Illinois
#72Trevor SwanGilbert, AZOL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 300 lbTransfer infrom Georgetown
#24Vaughn BlueMount Pleasant, SCRB0.4 pts50% role · 76% conf.5′11″ · 205 lbTransfer infrom Liberty
#84Dontae RobinsonLacey, WAWR0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 220 lbTransfer infrom Sacramento State
#16Shawn Foster IIGrand Ledge, MIWR0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 185 lbTransfer infrom Michigan State
#87Gavin SpillersRoberta, GATE0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 260 lbTransfer infrom Mars Hill
#19Darrell Bryant Jr.Hampton, VADB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 215 lbTransfer infrom Northern Colorado
#12Donavan PhilordMiramar, FLDB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 190 lbTransfer infrom Campbell
#14Justin TaylorChicago, ILDB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 200 lbTransfer infrom Wyoming
#7Angel FloresCasa Grande, AZQB4.2 pts79% starter · 64% conf.6′1″ · 210 lbReturning
#5Jadyn GlasserNokomis, FLQB0.9 pts16% starter · 64% conf.6′3″ · 245 lbReturning
#20Langston LewisSavannah, GAWR0.7 pts57% role · 64% conf.6′0″ · 195 lbReturning
#48Nathan VanTimmerenGrand Rapids, MIDL0.7 pts49% role · 64% conf.6′5″ · 235 lbReturning
#15Tommy McIntoshDewitt, MIWR0.7 pts53% role · 64% conf.6′4″ · 205 lbReturning
#6Collin PayneLake Forest, CAWR0.7 pts48% role · 64% conf.6′2″ · 210 lbReturning
#3Nasir WilliamsTallahassee, FLWR0.7 pts48% role · 64% conf.6′1″ · 205 lbReturning
#12Camden KruisengaRockford, MIWR0.6 pts46% role · 64% conf.6′2″ · 185 lbReturning
#81Tayte VanderleestMuskegon, MIWR0.6 pts51% role · 64% conf.6′4″ · 220 lbReturning
#9Justin Ruffin Jr.Buckner, KYWR0.6 pts49% role · 64% conf.5′9″ · 180 lbReturning
#59Brady PlouchaAllen Park, MIOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′6″ · 320 lbReturning
#73Dasan SmithMarquette, MIOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′6″ · 295 lbReturning
#69Jacob BoothSwartz Creek, MIOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 295 lbReturning
#70Jacob RussellGlen Ridge, NJOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 295 lbReturning
#60John IannuzziBelmont, MAOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 320 lbReturning
#76Martin KoivistoShakopee, MNOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′7″ · 290 lbReturning
#66Matthew NehfDewitt, MIOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 300 lbReturning
#64Rory CallahanNew Boston, MIOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 275 lbReturning
#78Talon SmithMarquette, MIOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′6″ · 270 lbReturning
#54Triston PierreMartinsburg, WVOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 265 lbReturning
#52Dominique MaiavaPago PagoDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 310 lbReturning
#1JJ DouglasJanesville, WIDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 245 lbReturning
#95Joey VanWetzingaPleasant Valley, IADL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 260 lbReturning
#5Korver DemmaGretna, NEDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 245 lbReturning
#82Logan BorodychukMount Pleasant, MIDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 255 lbReturning
#96Quavion BirdLake Wales, FLDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 300 lbReturning
#2Brock TownsendCaledonia, MIRB0.5 pts63% role · 76% conf.6′0″ · 235 lbReturning
#17Braylen NavesDavison, MIWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 200 lbReturning
#0Kendall JonesValrico, FLWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 180 lbReturning
#42Landon SwansonCharlevoix, MITE0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 240 lbReturning
#7Ed ConoranDover, NJDB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 190 lbReturning
#4Jaion JacksonSt. Louis, MODB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 170 lbReturning
#21Jamari AllenDetroit, MIDB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 170 lbReturning
#16Josiah BookerSarasota, FLDB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 160 lbReturning
#41Keyton JonesAvon, INDB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′9″ · 185 lbReturning
#23Kyle KrebsDenver, CODB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 185 lbReturning
#39Max MacklemGrand Blanc, MIDB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 190 lbReturning
#22Nolan AndersonMenomonee Falls, WIDB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 185 lbReturning
#25Trey LiebhardtChardon, OHDB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 190 lbReturning
#27Tysen CampbellAkron, OHDB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 175 lbReturning
#10Jeremiah AlstonDetroit, MILB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 230 lbReturning
#36Jeremiah McKenzieStarke, FLLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 210 lbReturning
#8Victor EarlRomeo, MILB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 225 lbReturning
#11Xavier WhiteLos Angeles, CALB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 240 lbReturning
#38Caden VanHuisHolland, MIPK0.3 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 190 lbReturning
#8Rusty VanWetzinga IVPleasant Valley, IAFB0.3 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 235 lbReturning
#15Zac ChapeauAthens, GAPK0.3 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 210 lbReturning
#18Declan DuleyEl Paso, ILP0.3 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 220 lbReturning
#10Marcus BeamonPhiladelphia, MSQB0.2 pts4% starter · 76% conf.6′0″ · 210 lbReturning
#14Daniel GomezHanford, CAQB0.2 pts4% starter · 40% conf.6′1″ · 215 lbReturning
#67Charlie MandabachGreenwood, INOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′6″ · 260 lbNew / unverified
#79Isaac HutchinsonBrownstown, INOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 310 lbNew / unverified
#77Jack NolanArlington Heights, ILOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 260 lbNew / unverified
#71Jacob TimmerGrand Rapids, MIOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′7″ · 260 lbNew / unverified
#58John WilliamsSan Jose, CAOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′5″ · 280 lbNew / unverified
#68Landon HarperRepublic, MOOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 280 lbNew / unverified
#63Wyatt GraffinColumbus, WIOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 290 lbNew / unverified
#61Zander BarthThree Rivers, MIOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′6″ · 245 lbNew / unverified
#91Aaron WeinerAnn Arbor, MIDL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 255 lbNew / unverified
#53Collin StareMechanicsburg, PADL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 270 lbNew / unverified
#0D.J. BennettWhite Springs, FLDL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′5″ · 265 lbNew / unverified
#93Evan WalkerGainesville, FLDL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 220 lbNew / unverified
#6Hunter ZirkleArcadia, FLDL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 245 lbNew / unverified
#32James ReinboldAnchorage, AKDL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 260 lbNew / unverified
#92Jaxon CherryWoolstock, IADL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 260 lbNew / unverified
#45Leon Howard Jr.East Saint Louis, MODL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 255 lbNew / unverified
#94Matt SextonGrand Rapids, MIDL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 265 lbNew / unverified
#99Matthew PlumbSt. Charles, ILDL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 240 lbNew / unverified
#97Max Van FleetConcord, NHDL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 275 lbNew / unverified
#80Avin RobinsonBrownsburg, INWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′11″ · 180 lbNew / unverified
#83Da'Shon FebresOviedo, FLWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 195 lbNew / unverified
#44Lucas HoffmeyerWixom, MITE0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 235 lbNew / unverified
#85Myles PetersCottonwood Heights, UTTE0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 245 lbNew / unverified
#46Zack WagnerWashington, MITE0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 240 lbNew / unverified
#17Coen AliYorba Linda, CADB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 205 lbNew / unverified
#37Colton BenaitisHomer Glen, ILDB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 195 lbNew / unverified
#29David WilliamsDetroit, MIDB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 190 lbNew / unverified
#38E'Shawn SuttonWinter Park, FLDB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 190 lbNew / unverified
#20Jajuan JonesDetroit, MIDB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 200 lbNew / unverified
#43Kameran HaywardWarren, MIDB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 185 lbNew / unverified
#28Laaren CornwallMiddletown, OHDB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 185 lbNew / unverified
#26Matthew McKenzieWest Palm Beach, FLDB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 200 lbNew / unverified
#24Ty WilliamsTampa, FLDB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 170 lbNew / unverified
#30Antonio Cherry Jr.Hopewell, VALB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 235 lbNew / unverified
#40Brett McCallaManhattan Beach, CALB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 220 lbNew / unverified
#50Donovan BrownUpland, CALB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 265 lbNew / unverified
#34Drew EsperTraverse City, MILB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 220 lbNew / unverified
#33Elijah ReynoldsHolland, MILB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 230 lbNew / unverified
#56Joshua AtiemoMilford, MILB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 215 lbNew / unverified
#35Mayson HitchensAnaheim, CALB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 225 lbNew / unverified
#18Geno SeetsWaterford, MIQB0.2 pts4% starter · 28% conf.6′3″ · 215 lbNew / unverified
#11Ryland WattersRochester Hills, MIQB0.2 pts4% starter · 28% conf.6′4″ · 220 lbNew / unverified
#47Jayel HarrisCincinnati, OHRB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′11″ · 190 lbNew / unverified
#45Jordan StapletonGulfport, MSRB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′9″ · 190 lbNew / unverified
#40Kobe HendricksSlinger, WIRB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′10″ · 185 lbNew / unverified
#43Nick WoodfordMacon, GARB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′9″ · 215 lbNew / unverified
#22Trav MooreDewitt, MIRB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′11″ · 205 lbNew / unverified
#47Braxton DoakGreen River, WYPK0.1 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′11″ · 160 lbNew / unverified
#57Connor RidderhoffChelsea, ALLS0.1 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 250 lbNew / unverified
#51Zach CurtisHaslett, MILS0.1 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 210 lbNew / unverified
2026 schedule
The path that shapes the projection.
The model prices every scheduled game individually. Home field, neutral sites, completed results and opponent rating feed the expected-win total shown above.
WeekOpponentSiteDate / result
1New MexicoNon-conference · University Stadium (NM) · 4M 22–29 · 35% win
AwaySep 510:00 PM EDT · model ↗2
ColgateNon-conference · Kelly/Shorts Stadium · 4M 16–36 · 86% win
HomeSep 121:00 PM EDT · model ↗3WyomingNon-conference · Kelly/Shorts Stadium · 4M 22–27 · 60% win
HomeSep 191:00 PM EDT · model ↗4
MiamiNon-conference · Hard Rock Stadium · 4M 14–37 · 9% win
AwaySep 266:30 PM EDT · model ↗5
AkronConference · Kelly/Shorts Stadium · 4M 21–30 · 69% win
HomeOct 312:00 AM EDT · model ↗6
OhioConference · Peden Stadium · 4M 24–28 · 41% win
AwayOct 1012:00 AM EDT · model ↗7
Western MichiganConference · Kelly/Shorts Stadium · 4M 26–23 · 43% win
HomeOct 1712:00 AM EDT · model ↗8
Miami (OH)Conference · Kelly/Shorts Stadium · 4M 26–25 · 48% win
HomeOct 2412:00 AM EDT · model ↗10
Eastern MichiganConference · Ford Field · 4M 28–25 · 56% win
NeutralNov 412:00 AM EST · model ↗11
Sacramento StateConference · Kelly/Shorts Stadium · 4M 22–30 · 68% win
HomeNov 1112:00 AM EST · model ↗12
BuffaloConference · UB Stadium · 4M 26–23 · 57% win
AwayNov 1812:00 AM EST · model ↗13
Ball StateConference · Scheumann Stadium · 4M 29–21 · 66% win
AwayNov 2812:00 PM EST · model ↗
Range of outcomes
The projection is the middle—not the ceiling.
Floor case3 wins
Instability at premium positions turns swing games into losses.
4M midpoint6 wins
The roster performs close to its current power and schedule baseline.
Ceiling case8 wins
Quarterback play and line continuity outperform the preseason prior.
The betting lens
Price and matchup decide the play.
No team is an automatic bet or fade. The goal is to identify when the market's story about Central Michigan diverges from the football conditions required to cover.
The spread is large, the favorite plays slowly, and the game script allows Central Michigan to stay inside the number without chasing points.
The offense must play from behind, protect for long-yardage throws and generate explosives simply to reach the market expectation.
Quarterback efficiency, offensive-line cohesion and whether the defense can get off the field without blitzing itself out of structure.
Season-defining questionWill experienced line play and close-game execution create a MAC breakthrough?