The 2026 outlook
Does this team have the quarterback play and defensive depth to win the American?
Temple opens No. 110 nationally and No. 11 of 14 in the American. The 4M baseline rates the roster 9.4 points below an average FBS team on a neutral field and projects 4.5 regular-season wins.
Temple begins below the FBS average, so progress should first appear in functional line play, fewer negative snaps and cleaner late-game execution. That does not make this team an automatic fade; large spreads become valuable when the favorite lacks the pace or explosiveness to create margin.
Depth is the central concern. Transfers can raise the first unit quickly, but the two-deep has to hold up across twelve games. The first month should reveal whether the rebuild created real competition or simply moved uncertainty from one position group to another.
The schedule grades No. 83 nationally—enough resistance to expose weaknesses without defining the entire year. A small group of swing games should determine whether Temple beats its 4.5-win projection, placing extra value on special teams, fourth-down decisions and late-game quarterback play.
Personnel command center
Who is back, who arrived and who has to matter.
The roster is grouped by continuity because returning snaps and proven transfer production are more useful than raw headcount. “New / unverified” means the player did not match last season's roster or the incoming portal file—not that the player is necessarily a freshman.
Head coachK.C. Keeler17–19 over the available CFBD career window
Staff continuityReturning head coachContinuity is treated as context, not an automatic upgrade.
Portal ledger23 in · 25 outImpact is weighted by rating, position and prior usage.
Position-group modelPremium roles separated.Fifty is FBS average. Quarterback includes the modeled starter probability, not merely the best name in the room.
4M player valueHighest-leverage rolesMaximum point value assumes the player is fully unavailable and is reduced by status probability.
PlayerPos.4M valueSizeContinuity
#14Jaxon SmolikVan Meter, IAQB1.3 pts33% starter · 64% conf.6′1″ · 205 lbTransfer infrom Penn State
#13Ajani SheppardBronx, NYQB0.9 pts20% starter · 40% conf.6′2″ · 230 lbTransfer infrom Washington State
#10Jayce FreemanSalisbury, MDWR0.7 pts50% role · 64% conf.6′4″ · 225 lbTransfer infrom Stony Brook
#76John StoneSewell, NJOL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 300 lbTransfer infrom Rutgers
#77Ransom McDermottNoblesville, INOL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′8″ · 315 lbTransfer infrom Louisville
#70Zach AamlandSouth Brunswick, NJOL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′7″ · 300 lbTransfer infrom Rutgers
#59Deshon DodsonWoodlyn, PADL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 270 lbTransfer infrom Albany
#58Kaleb ArtisWestbury, NYDL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 315 lbTransfer infrom Penn State
#93Kevin Hornbeak Jr.Toledo, OHDL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 295 lbTransfer infrom Tiffin University
#88Lamar FairfaxDetroit, MIDL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 270 lbTransfer infrom Memphis
#94Quante GilliansRochester, NYDL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 290 lbTransfer infrom Syracuse
#86Reis StocksdaleMorrow, OHWR0.4 pts43% role · 64% conf.5′10″ · 185 lbTransfer infrom Bowling Green
#12Demonte GreeneDallas, TXWR0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 180 lbTransfer infrom Midwestern State
#83Kenedy UzomaBeltsville, MDWR0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 210 lbTransfer infrom North Carolina
#18Joey SchlafferReading, PATE0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 250 lbTransfer infrom Penn State
#17Jaeden GouldSomerset, NJS0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 210 lbTransfer infrom UCF
#18Kolin DinkinsWexford, PAS0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 200 lbTransfer infrom Penn State
#24Saboor KarriemNewark, NJS0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 210 lbTransfer infrom Illinois
#56JaMair DiazPassaic, NJLB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 245 lbTransfer infrom Sam Houston
#10Jaylon JosephHouston, TXLB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 235 lbTransfer infrom Lafayette
#97Sam WolfendenCave Creek, AZLS0.3 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 245 lbTransfer infrom UNLV
#11Camren BoykinUpper Marlboro, MDQB1.4 pts33% starter · 40% conf.6′2″ · 190 lbReturning
#1Colin ChaseTustin, CAWR0.8 pts62% role · 64% conf.6′0″ · 195 lbReturning
#17JoJo BermudezEgg Harbor Township, NJWR0.8 pts59% role · 64% conf.5′9″ · 170 lbReturning
#88Peter ClarkeLondonTE0.8 pts54% role · 64% conf.6′6″ · 265 lbReturning
#65Billy BrownSwarthmore, PAOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 315 lbReturning
#56C.J. Van BurenStafford, VAOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 290 lbReturning
#74Davray VenuMontreal, PQOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 295 lbReturning
#52Eric KingJersey City, NJOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 300 lbReturning
#71Giakoby HillsMorristown, NJOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 290 lbReturning
#57Grayson MainsCumming, GAOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 300 lbReturning
#54Jackson PruittDetroit, MIOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 315 lbReturning
#55Kevin TerryPalm Harbor, FLOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 280 lbReturning
#75Luke WatsonWillow Grove, PAOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 290 lbReturning
#51Mausa PaluNuku'alofaOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 335 lbReturning
#48Adriano McLeanLansdowne, PADL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′6″ · 230 lbReturning
#34Brandon EnarusaiBurlington, NJDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 265 lbReturning
#99Cameron JonesLeonardtown, MDDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 250 lbReturning
#98Joseph AuzenneAtascocita, TXDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 295 lbReturning
#52Russell Sykes IVRolesville, NCDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 260 lbReturning
#96Semi OdedelePenns Grove, NJDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 320 lbReturning
#95Troy CunninghamSouth Park, PADL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 265 lbReturning
#90Yamael WigginsHershey, PADL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 240 lbReturning
#26Keveun MasonFort Meade, FLRB0.5 pts54% role · 64% conf.5′10″ · 190 lbReturning
#33Ryder KuschWhite Rock, BCTE0.5 pts51% role · 64% conf.6′4″ · 250 lbReturning
#87Kaegan ChambersMonroe, NCWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 170 lbReturning
#85Rameir HardyPhiladelphia, PAWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 185 lbReturning
#28Zander BaptisteHometown not listedWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 185 lbReturning
#84Daniel EvertRegensburgTE0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 250 lbReturning
#40David WisePhiladelphia, PATE0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 230 lbReturning
#44Patrick KellerAbington, PATE0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 205 lbReturning
#32Adrian LaingNorth Bergen, NJCB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 180 lbReturning
#31Bryson GoodwinTampa, FLCB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 180 lbReturning
#13Denzel ChavisUnion City, NJCB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 185 lbReturning
#27Devontae Ward-GrantFlorida City, FLCB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 165 lbReturning
#11Earl KulpCanton, OHCB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 190 lbReturning
#20Jett WhiteLos Angeles, CACB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 175 lbReturning
#29Avery PowellEast Orange, NJS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 170 lbReturning
#41Jack PaesslerNewtown, PAS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 170 lbReturning
#42Jamarcus PierreDeerfield Beach, FLS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 180 lbReturning
#46James PaesslerNewtown, PAS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 170 lbReturning
#16Pooh LawtonNewark, NJS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 175 lbReturning
#23Zyil PowellNewark, NJS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 195 lbReturning
#29Hunter SmithLittle Rock, ARRB0.5 pts58% role · 76% conf.5′11″ · 190 lbReturning
#43Aiden BrittonStroudsburg, PALB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 215 lbReturning
#50Brian AdderleyNewark, DELB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 245 lbReturning
#33Curly OrdonezFort Lauderdale, FLLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 220 lbReturning
#28David KpegloPhiladelphia, PALB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 230 lbReturning
#22Eric StuartEast Palo Alto, CALB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 215 lbReturning
#30Jayvant BrownDeerfield Beach, FLLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 220 lbReturning
#15Jordan MontgomeryPhiladelphia, PALB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 230 lbReturning
#53Reggie JonesLeesburg, VALB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 235 lbReturning
#44Tyree AlualuWexford, PALB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 230 lbReturning
#36Wesley BrownDecatur, GALB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 210 lbReturning
#12Willy LoveCamden, NJLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 215 lbReturning
#21De'Carlos YoungPalmer Park, MDRB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 210 lbReturning
#22Johnny MartinLawnside, NJRB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 200 lbReturning
#23Jordan MillerBear, DERB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′7″ · 185 lbReturning
#32Darren WuMedford, NJPK0.3 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′9″ · 160 lbReturning
#7Dante AttonMelbourne, VICP0.3 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 200 lbReturning
#98Carl HardinRaleigh, NCPK0.3 pts44% role · 52% conf.5′9″ · 160 lbReturning
#66Aiden ZilkerFrackville, PAOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′5″ · 300 lbNew / unverified
#63John WatkinsBaltimore, MDOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′5″ · 300 lbNew / unverified
#79Jonah TarpleyWhite Plains, MDOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′5″ · 300 lbNew / unverified
#73Karon SpencerOlney, MDOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′6″ · 310 lbNew / unverified
#53Khalif McnearPhiladelphia, PAOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 290 lbNew / unverified
#58Logan KingBel Air, MDOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 295 lbNew / unverified
#51Antwuan RogersNorristown, PADL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′5″ · 245 lbNew / unverified
#97Davier BishopAkron, OHDL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′5″ · 260 lbNew / unverified
#89Jayden BrownBridgeport, CTDL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 245 lbNew / unverified
#92Jude OkelekeWatertown, CTDL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 300 lbNew / unverified
#71Kechan MillerWashington, DCDL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 300 lbNew / unverified
#24Ash RobertsWillingboro, NJWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′10″ · 160 lbNew / unverified
#81Coen LoganProvidence, RIWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 205 lbNew / unverified
#80Hunter WatsonCranford, NJWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 180 lbNew / unverified
#82Tylik MitchellBailey, NCWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′11″ · 185 lbNew / unverified
#30Liam FullerHarrisburg, PATE0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′6″ · 230 lbNew / unverified
#16Brady PalmerBloomingdale, ILQB0.2 pts5% starter · 28% conf.6′2″ · 215 lbNew / unverified
#15Brody NormanMooresville, NCQB0.2 pts5% starter · 28% conf.6′0″ · 190 lbNew / unverified
#19Lamar BestWillingboro, NJQB0.2 pts5% starter · 28% conf.6′0″ · 175 lbNew / unverified
#21Asa LocksTemple Hills, MDCB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 185 lbNew / unverified
#35Dylan AbramPhiladelphia, PACB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 170 lbNew / unverified
#49Eyan SteadNorristown, PACB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′9″ · 155 lbNew / unverified
#14Nakeel LawrencePine Bluff, ARCB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 190 lbNew / unverified
#38Alex HanksEast Orange, NJS0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 195 lbNew / unverified
#39Daron HarrisChester, PAS0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 180 lbNew / unverified
#37Demacio CooperLanghorne, PAS0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 180 lbNew / unverified
#19Josiah JacksonCincinnati, OHS0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 195 lbNew / unverified
#25Orel GrayJacksonville, FLS0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′11″ · 195 lbNew / unverified
#40Brendan FarhatOttawa, ONLB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 210 lbNew / unverified
#54Josh NengiteHarrisburg, PALB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 210 lbNew / unverified
#57Michael Holcomb Jr.Forest Hill, MDLB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 250 lbNew / unverified
#55Uyi IgiehonHillside, NJLB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′5″ · 225 lbNew / unverified
#25Ameir MorrowBrooklyn, NYRB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′11″ · 210 lbNew / unverified
#20R.J. BlountPennsauken, NJRB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′11″ · 205 lbNew / unverified
#27Sam Brown VPhiladelphia, PARB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 215 lbNew / unverified
#90Luke CochranePhiladelphia, PAPK0.1 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′10″ · 185 lbNew / unverified
#91Luke SwordHuntingdon Valley, PAP0.1 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 175 lbNew / unverified
#46Michael PerilloRamsey, NJLS0.1 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′10″ · 200 lbNew / unverified
2026 schedule
The path that shapes the projection.
The model prices every scheduled game individually. Home field, neutral sites, completed results and opponent rating feed the expected-win total shown above.
WeekOpponentSiteDate / result
1Rhode IslandNon-conference · Lincoln Financial Field · 4M 21–32 · 73% win
HomeSep 52:00 PM EDT · model ↗2Penn StateNon-conference · Lincoln Financial Field · 4M 34–19 · 20% win
HomeSep 1212:00 PM EDT · model ↗3
ToledoNon-conference · Glass Bowl · 4M 21–30 · 30% win
AwaySep 193:00 PM EDT · model ↗4
ArmyConference · Lincoln Financial Field · 4M 28–24 · 41% win
HomeSep 254:00 PM EDT · model ↗5
South FloridaConference · Raymond James Stadium · 4M 20–34 · 22% win
AwayOct 312:00 AM EDT · model ↗6
UConnNon-conference · Lincoln Financial Field · 4M 28–27 · 49% win
HomeOct 1012:00 AM EDT · model ↗7
CharlotteConference · Lincoln Financial Field · 4M 21–30 · 70% win
HomeOct 1712:00 AM EDT · model ↗9
East CarolinaConference · Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium · 4M 22–30 · 31% win
AwayOct 3112:00 AM EDT · model ↗10
NavyConference · Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium · 4M 24–31 · 34% win
AwayNov 73:30 PM EST · model ↗11
UABConference · Lincoln Financial Field · 4M 25–29 · 59% win
HomeNov 1412:00 AM EST · model ↗12
RiceConference · Lincoln Financial Field · 4M 22–29 · 65% win
HomeNov 197:30 PM EST · model ↗13
MemphisConference · Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium · 4M 23–31 · 33% win
AwayNov 2712:00 AM EST · model ↗
Range of outcomes
The projection is the middle—not the ceiling.
Floor case2 wins
Instability at premium positions turns swing games into losses.
4M midpoint5 wins
The roster performs close to its current power and schedule baseline.
Ceiling case7 wins
Quarterback play and line continuity outperform the preseason prior.
The betting lens
Price and matchup decide the play.
No team is an automatic bet or fade. The goal is to identify when the market's story about Temple diverges from the football conditions required to cover.
The spread is large, the favorite plays slowly, and the game script allows Temple to stay inside the number without chasing points.
The offense must play from behind, protect for long-yardage throws and generate explosives simply to reach the market expectation.
Quarterback efficiency, offensive-line cohesion and whether the defense can get off the field without blitzing itself out of structure.
Season-defining questionDoes this team have the quarterback play and defensive depth to win the American?