The 2026 outlook
Will the roster hold up in the Sun Belt's physical, high-variance weekly environment?
Georgia Southern opens No. 104 nationally and No. 8 of 14 in the Sun Belt. The 4M baseline rates the roster 8.8 points below an average FBS team on a neutral field and projects 4.1 regular-season wins.
Georgia Southern begins below the FBS average, so progress should first appear in functional line play, fewer negative snaps and cleaner late-game execution. That does not make this team an automatic fade; large spreads become valuable when the favorite lacks the pace or explosiveness to create margin.
Depth is the central concern. Transfers can raise the first unit quickly, but the two-deep has to hold up across twelve games. The first month should reveal whether the rebuild created real competition or simply moved uncertainty from one position group to another.
The schedule grades No. 90 nationally—enough resistance to expose weaknesses without defining the entire year. A small group of swing games should determine whether Georgia Southern beats its 4.1-win projection, placing extra value on special teams, fourth-down decisions and late-game quarterback play.
Personnel command center
Who is back, who arrived and who has to matter.
The roster is grouped by continuity because returning snaps and proven transfer production are more useful than raw headcount. “New / unverified” means the player did not match last season's roster or the incoming portal file—not that the player is necessarily a freshman.
Head coachClay Helton28–26 over the available CFBD career window
Staff continuityReturning head coachContinuity is treated as context, not an automatic upgrade.
Portal ledger17 in · 18 outImpact is weighted by rating, position and prior usage.
Position-group modelPremium roles separated.Fifty is FBS average. Quarterback includes the modeled starter probability, not merely the best name in the room.
4M player valueHighest-leverage rolesMaximum point value assumes the player is fully unavailable and is reduced by status probability.
PlayerPos.4M valueSizeContinuity
#7Max JohnsonAthens, GAQB4.3 pts90% starter · 76% conf.6′5″ · 220 lbTransfer infrom North Carolina
#2Ashton HollinsMobile, ALWR0.6 pts40% role · 64% conf.6′5″ · 200 lbTransfer infrom Illinois
#72Josh RaymondOrlando, FLOL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 295 lbTransfer infrom Florida State
#56Mo Clipper Jr.Alpharetta, GAOL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 320 lbTransfer infrom Charlotte
#88Alex TaylorGreensboro, NCWR0.5 pts42% role · 64% conf.6′2″ · 200 lbTransfer infrom North Carolina
#85Kam MikellStatesboro, GAWR0.5 pts47% role · 64% conf.6′2″ · 195 lbTransfer infrom Colorado
#18Andre Greene Jr.North Chesterfield, VAWR0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 205 lbTransfer infrom Virginia
#12Cam KingOcala, FLWR0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 200 lbTransfer infrom Auburn
#13King PhillipsQueens, NYWR0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 190 lbTransfer infrom Texas A&M-Kingsville
#89Noble JohnsonRockwall, TXWR0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 210 lbTransfer infrom Arizona State
#2Aaron SearsTyler, TXDB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 180 lbTransfer infrom Stephen F. Austin
#13Aidan McCowanFrisco, TXDB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 170 lbTransfer infrom Nicholls
#23Gregory Delaine Jr.Fort Myers, FLDB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 180 lbTransfer infrom Syracuse
#38Noah ManghamFrisco, TXDB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 195 lbTransfer infrom Abilene Christian
#4Anthony BynumCovington, GALB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 255 lbTransfer infrom Middle Tennessee
#14Rashon Myles Jr.Brownsburg, INLB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 225 lbTransfer infrom Abilene Christian
#97Blake FordArlington, TXPK0.3 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 215 lbTransfer infrom Arkansas
#19Josh DallasSharpsburg, GAWR0.8 pts65% role · 64% conf.6′1″ · 210 lbReturning
#87River HelmsLester, ALTE0.7 pts51% role · 64% conf.6′4″ · 230 lbReturning
#76Brandon StonerLouisville, KYOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 325 lbReturning
#64Caelan WilliamsDublin, GAOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′7″ · 305 lbReturning
#63Colin AlexanderStockbridge, GAOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 305 lbReturning
#55Ethan WilliamsPalatka, FLOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 295 lbReturning
#68Jace MoldenAlbany, GAOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 285 lbReturning
#70Jalen BurgessValdosta, GAOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 290 lbReturning
#50Jaylen SlaughterAtlanta, GAOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 260 lbReturning
#67Joshua FordGuyton, GAOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 305 lbReturning
#75Kingtriton SamuelaMableton, GAOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 300 lbReturning
#51Matthew WilliamsAppling, GAOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 315 lbReturning
#53Ty FurnishWoodstock, GAOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 295 lbReturning
#73Zach PearsonPembroke, GAOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 275 lbReturning
#15Taylor BradshawJacksonville, FLWR0.6 pts50% role · 64% conf.6′0″ · 185 lbReturning
#50Caleb EllisMilton, GADL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 270 lbReturning
#93Caleb MooreHattiesburg, MSDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 300 lbReturning
#94Elijah FearsAtlantic City, NJDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 305 lbReturning
#99Jeremiah TicketAnaktuvuk Pass, AKDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 260 lbReturning
#55Korey JordanDouglasville, GADL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 290 lbReturning
#95Kwon McGinneyMobile, ALDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 310 lbReturning
#57Latrell BullardSmyrna, GADL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 350 lbReturning
#92Marcus DownsGreenville, SCDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 285 lbReturning
#16Jamarian SamuelOcala, FLRB0.5 pts53% role · 64% conf.5′9″ · 205 lbReturning
#5Terrance GibbsWinter Park, FLRB0.5 pts52% role · 64% conf.6′0″ · 210 lbReturning
#35Taeo ToddWest Point, GARB0.5 pts60% role · 64% conf.5′8″ · 195 lbReturning
#84JP MikhaelNiceville, FLTE0.5 pts49% role · 64% conf.6′3″ · 235 lbReturning
#26Antavious MurphyBainbridge, GAWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′9″ · 190 lbReturning
#81Jeremiah WareGainesville, GAWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 190 lbReturning
#38Kevin DouglasAugusta, GAWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′8″ · 175 lbReturning
#24Peyton PlottAuburn, ALWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′7″ · 160 lbReturning
#48Aubrey HeathSavannah, GATE0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 210 lbReturning
#86Henry GregoryBirmingham, ALTE0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′7″ · 230 lbReturning
#82Jackson LongHendersonville, TNTE0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 230 lbReturning
#6David MbadingaAtlanta, GARB0.5 pts61% role · 76% conf.5′7″ · 190 lbReturning
#21Carlo ThompsonRichmond, VADB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 180 lbReturning
#31Chance GambleFitzgerald, GADB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 185 lbReturning
#29Devin CollierAlbany, GADB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 180 lbReturning
#19Fabo ChaneyThomaston, GADB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 180 lbReturning
#36Jadaan CooperWinder, GADB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 170 lbReturning
#20Jaquari BrownWarner Robins, GADB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 170 lbReturning
#32Jaylen BentleyValdosta, GADB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 175 lbReturning
#24Phillip GladneyKennesaw, GADB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 175 lbReturning
#39Temirez Williams Jr.Albany, GADB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′8″ · 180 lbReturning
#12Tracy Hill Jr.Athens, GADB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 195 lbReturning
#16AJ Brown Sr.Cordele, GALB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 200 lbReturning
#48Amari WilsonMoultrie, GALB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 245 lbReturning
#41Brandon AlfordForsyth, GALB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 205 lbReturning
#1Brandon TysonWhiteville, NCLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 220 lbReturning
#42Braxtin McLesterDouglasville, GALB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 220 lbReturning
#35Caleb ButlerBrunswick, GALB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 235 lbReturning
#30CJ Allen Jr.Jacksonville, FLLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 220 lbReturning
#45Colton VeltkampBowling Green, KYLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 220 lbReturning
#97Eli AndersCornelius, NCLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 260 lbReturning
#43Ethan JohnsonDecatur, GALB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 220 lbReturning
#15Holden TriceKennesaw, GALB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 210 lbReturning
#10Jacob HammondsGriffin, GALB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 195 lbReturning
#34JaMari WhiteheadJacksonville, FLLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 235 lbReturning
#11Kebba SeckaLithia Springs, GALB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 260 lbReturning
#18MJ StroudCovington, GALB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 245 lbReturning
#44Nigel Eldridge Jr.Jacksonville, FLLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 260 lbReturning
#98Uche IlohMount Arlington, NJLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 265 lbReturning
#33Bryce BakerSavannah, GARB0.4 pts55% role · 64% conf.5′11″ · 205 lbReturning
#99Donal DempseyDunboynePK0.3 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 195 lbReturning
#98TJ Hartley IIIFayetteville, GAPK0.3 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 175 lbReturning
#25Alex SmithWoodstock, GAP0.3 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′6″ · 230 lbReturning
#93Gaines WoodAtlanta, GALS0.3 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 205 lbReturning
#46Gavin KurpisWarner Robins, GALS0.3 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 210 lbReturning
#95Tripp BryantLexington, SCPK0.3 pts44% role · 52% conf.5′9″ · 180 lbReturning
#9Weston BryanLeesburg, GAQB0.3 pts5% starter · 64% conf.6′3″ · 245 lbReturning
#10Charlie JohnstonMoody, ALQB0.2 pts4% starter · 40% conf.6′6″ · 215 lbReturning
#17Trey TownsendCalhoun, GAQB0.2 pts4% starter · 40% conf.6′1″ · 215 lbReturning
#14Turner HeltonPalos Verdes Estates, CAQB0.2 pts4% starter · 40% conf.6′2″ · 175 lbReturning
#65Cole NorredBremen, GAOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 290 lbNew / unverified
#74Grady HowellDexter, GAOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′5″ · 285 lbNew / unverified
#71Jaden JohnsonHampton, GAOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′5″ · 260 lbNew / unverified
#66Jayvon PerryFairburn, GAOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 285 lbNew / unverified
#62Liam ThompsonAppling, GAOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 280 lbNew / unverified
#90O'Marion BrownWoodbury, GADL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 290 lbNew / unverified
#96Stephone RossDaytona Beach, FLDL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 280 lbNew / unverified
#40Brandon PaulOrlando, FLWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′9″ · 165 lbNew / unverified
#42CJ DockeryBogart, GAWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 210 lbNew / unverified
#22Jarvis MathurinDacula, GAWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′7″ · 165 lbNew / unverified
#21Zay HilliardJacksonville, FLWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 210 lbNew / unverified
#83Jack BerquistPonte Vedra Beach, FLTE0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 220 lbNew / unverified
#80JQ CrosbyCharleston, SCTE0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 220 lbNew / unverified
#22Chace CalicutHouston, TXDB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 195 lbNew / unverified
#26Dariyon GordonApopka, FLDB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 170 lbNew / unverified
#6Jakyri JonesMonroe, GADB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′10″ · 195 lbNew / unverified
#17Jayden JacksonFort White, FLDB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 180 lbNew / unverified
#37Max HaertelCumming, GADB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′11″ · 200 lbNew / unverified
#27RJ IsaacDeKalb, GADB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′10″ · 170 lbNew / unverified
#28Tylin DrakefordCamden, SCDB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′10″ · 175 lbNew / unverified
#59Alec UpshawCalhoun, GALB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 235 lbNew / unverified
#91DA LoganCarrollton, GALB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 225 lbNew / unverified
#5Diego AvilesManassas, VALB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 230 lbNew / unverified
#9Festus DaviesLawrenceville, GALB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 235 lbNew / unverified
#52Kru CaseySaint Augustine, FLLB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 225 lbNew / unverified
#47Xavier BrownCoos Bay, ORLB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 230 lbNew / unverified
#11Harrison Faulkner Jr.Bogart, GAQB0.2 pts4% starter · 28% conf.6′0″ · 190 lbNew / unverified
#29Bre'Lan MareusFort Lauderdale, FLRB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′9″ · 200 lbNew / unverified
#37Foster OrrisCumming, GARB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′9″ · 195 lbNew / unverified
#20Ty CummingsDublin, GARB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′8″ · 185 lbNew / unverified
#27Tyrese WoodgettDouglas, GARB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′10″ · 190 lbNew / unverified
#41Chason GlennMoultrie, GALS0.1 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 235 lbNew / unverified
2026 schedule
The path that shapes the projection.
The model prices every scheduled game individually. Home field, neutral sites, completed results and opponent rating feed the expected-win total shown above.
WeekOpponentSiteDate / result
1Charleston SouthernNon-conference · Allen E. Paulson Stadium · 4M 18–37 · 86% win
HomeSep 57:00 PM EDT · model ↗2ClemsonNon-conference · Memorial Stadium (Clemson, SC) · 4M 20–35 · 19% win
AwaySep 127:30 PM EDT · model ↗3
Jacksonville StateNon-conference · AmFirst Stadium · 4M 25–30 · 41% win
AwaySep 197:00 PM EDT · model ↗4
HoustonNon-conference · Allen E. Paulson Stadium · 4M 32–23 · 32% win
HomeSep 2612:00 AM EDT · model ↗5
Coastal CarolinaConference · Brooks Stadium (SC) · 4M 28–27 · 51% win
AwayOct 312:00 AM EDT · model ↗6
James MadisonConference · Allen E. Paulson Stadium · 4M 30–23 · 34% win
HomeOct 1012:00 AM EDT · model ↗7
Old DominionConference · S.B. Ballard Stadium · 4M 22–31 · 32% win
AwayOct 157:30 PM EDT · model ↗9
App StateConference · Allen E. Paulson Stadium · 4M 25–31 · 63% win
HomeOct 3112:00 AM EDT · model ↗10MarshallConference · Allen E. Paulson Stadium · 4M 28–27 · 47% win
HomeNov 712:00 AM EST · model ↗11
Georgia StateConference · Center Parc Stadium · 4M 29–26 · 58% win
AwayNov 1412:00 AM EST · model ↗12
TroyConference · Veterans Memorial Stadium (AL) · 4M 26–28 · 46% win
AwayNov 2112:00 AM EST · model ↗13
Louisiana TechConference · Allen E. Paulson Stadium · 4M 27–27 · 51% win
HomeNov 2812:00 AM EST · model ↗
Range of outcomes
The projection is the middle—not the ceiling.
Floor case2 wins
Instability at premium positions turns swing games into losses.
4M midpoint4 wins
The roster performs close to its current power and schedule baseline.
Ceiling case6 wins
Quarterback play and line continuity outperform the preseason prior.
The betting lens
Price and matchup decide the play.
No team is an automatic bet or fade. The goal is to identify when the market's story about Georgia Southern diverges from the football conditions required to cover.
The spread is large, the favorite plays slowly, and the game script allows Georgia Southern to stay inside the number without chasing points.
The offense must play from behind, protect for long-yardage throws and generate explosives simply to reach the market expectation.
Quarterback efficiency, offensive-line cohesion and whether the defense can get off the field without blitzing itself out of structure.
Season-defining questionWill the roster hold up in the Sun Belt's physical, high-variance weekly environment?