The 2026 outlook
How quickly will this roster establish itself inside the rebuilt Pac-12 hierarchy?
Colorado State opens No. 115 nationally and No. 8 of 8 in the Pac-12. The 4M baseline rates the roster 10.7 points below an average FBS team on a neutral field and projects 3.4 regular-season wins.
Colorado State begins below the FBS average, so progress should first appear in functional line play, fewer negative snaps and cleaner late-game execution. That does not make this team an automatic fade; large spreads become valuable when the favorite lacks the pace or explosiveness to create margin.
Depth is the central concern. Transfers can raise the first unit quickly, but the two-deep has to hold up across twelve games. The first month should reveal whether the rebuild created real competition or simply moved uncertainty from one position group to another.
The schedule grades No. 86 nationally—enough resistance to expose weaknesses without defining the entire year. A small group of swing games should determine whether Colorado State beats its 3.4-win projection, placing extra value on special teams, fourth-down decisions and late-game quarterback play.
Personnel command center
Who is back, who arrived and who has to matter.
The roster is grouped by continuity because returning snaps and proven transfer production are more useful than raw headcount. “New / unverified” means the player did not match last season's roster or the incoming portal file—not that the player is necessarily a freshman.
Head coachJim Mora27–23 over the available CFBD career window
Staff continuityNew head coachReplaces Jay Norvell
Portal ledger32 in · 38 outImpact is weighted by rating, position and prior usage.
Position-group modelPremium roles separated.Fifty is FBS average. Quarterback includes the modeled starter probability, not merely the best name in the room.
4M player valueHighest-leverage rolesMaximum point value assumes the player is fully unavailable and is reduced by status probability.
PlayerPos.4M valueSizeContinuity
#5Juice VereenHavelock, NCTE0.7 pts47% role · 64% conf.6′4″ · 220 lbTransfer infrom UConn
—Mel BrownStone Mountain, GARB0.6 pts56% role · 64% conf.5′9″ · 180 lbTransfer infrom UConn
#3Darius CurryLong Beach, CAQB4.4 pts94% starter · 76% conf.5′10″ · 165 lbReturning
#82Lavon BrownChatsworth, CAWR0.7 pts52% role · 64% conf.6′0″ · 195 lbReturning
#6Tay LanierLong Beach, CAWR0.7 pts53% role · 64% conf.6′1″ · 165 lbReturning
#85Kory HallNorthridge, CAWR0.7 pts51% role · 64% conf.6′1″ · 185 lbReturning
#10Tommy MaherBellflower, CAWR0.7 pts55% role · 64% conf.5′10″ · 170 lbReturning
#26Ryan McConnellErie, COTE0.6 pts46% role · 64% conf.6′1″ · 225 lbReturning
#69Alex FosterVernal, UTOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 305 lbReturning
#70Berlin LillardOakland, CAOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 365 lbReturning
#73Braden HalesOlathe, KSOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 305 lbReturning
#60Chandler BrownGainesville, VAOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 300 lbReturning
#63John HolthausPortola Valley, CAOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′7″ · 285 lbReturning
#52Kentez AllenMcdonough, GAOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 295 lbReturning
#54Liam WortmannPiedmont, OKOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 300 lbReturning
#65Phillip OconSouth Pasadena, CAOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 300 lbReturning
#75Sione NetaneSan Mateo, CAOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 350 lbReturning
#57Trevyn HeilAurora, COOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 275 lbReturning
#64Tristan HolmbeckPhiladelphia, PAOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 285 lbReturning
#71Zach SmithHighlands Ranch, COOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′8″ · 300 lbReturning
#11Kojo AntwiSuwanee, GAWR0.6 pts50% role · 64% conf.6′0″ · 195 lbReturning
#94Alton Tarber IVDeerfield Beach, FLDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 330 lbReturning
#93Caden BranstonPeoria, AZDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 265 lbReturning
#39DeAndre Gill Jr.Seattle, WADL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 245 lbReturning
#97Ed'Mari BinionLakewood, CADL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′6″ · 245 lbReturning
#95Gabe JonesDallas, TXDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 290 lbReturning
#77Jack MoranArvada, CODL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′6″ · 255 lbReturning
#99Javion Smith-CombsGreenwood Village, CODL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 250 lbReturning
#49Jernias TafiaWest Seattle, WADL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 305 lbReturning
#90Keegan ShankScottsdale, AZDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 255 lbReturning
#91Moso'oipala TuiteleAurora, CODL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 260 lbReturning
#92Mukendi Wa-KalonjiAurora, CODL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 250 lbReturning
#58Peyton GarrettParker, CODL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 230 lbReturning
#88Jordan McIntyreChatsworth, CAWR0.5 pts47% role · 64% conf.5′11″ · 180 lbReturning
#89Keynan HigginsAntioch, CAWR0.5 pts46% role · 64% conf.6′4″ · 170 lbReturning
#87Antoine Martin Jr.Houston, TXWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 170 lbReturning
#80Clarence TaylorPleasant Grove, ALWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 150 lbReturning
#27Cole RhodenPlatte City, MOWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 190 lbReturning
#15Landon BellNewbury Park, CAWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 215 lbReturning
#84Stephon DailyPhoenix, AZWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 180 lbReturning
#43Brock CampColumbia, MOTE0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 250 lbReturning
#18Carlos AnayaBarstow, CATE0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′6″ · 240 lbReturning
#42Jaden LandrumFontana, CATE0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 240 lbReturning
#18AJ NolandTualatin, ORDB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 185 lbReturning
#15Ayden HectorBellevue, WADB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 215 lbReturning
#22Chauncey DavisFontana, CADB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 165 lbReturning
#17CJ BlockerHouston, TXDB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 180 lbReturning
#32D'Angelo Hagans Jr.Las Vegas, NVDB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 195 lbReturning
#3Dagan MyersMorrison, CODB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 185 lbReturning
#28Dante ScottSan Diego, CADB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 190 lbReturning
#27Dylan PhelpsLas Vegas, NVDB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 190 lbReturning
#6Elijah BrownLos Angeles, CADB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 185 lbReturning
#12Jace BellahPueblo, CODB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 190 lbReturning
#4Jahari RogersArlington, TXDB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 190 lbReturning
#32Jake JarmolowichSummit, NJDB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 200 lbReturning
#20Jayden CortellSan Diego, CADB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 180 lbReturning
#26John SmithBaytown, TXDB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 190 lbReturning
#38Kylan StudebakerBroomfield, CODB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 185 lbReturning
#7Lemondre JoeDeltona, FLDB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 175 lbReturning
#24Trey VincentGrinnell, KSDB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 185 lbReturning
#41Tyson WilliamsLoveland, CODB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 190 lbReturning
#54Cannon ValenzuelaJacksboro, TXLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 200 lbReturning
#47Drew RodriguezSalem, ORLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 220 lbReturning
#85Garrett KeelerBroomfield, COLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 220 lbReturning
#44Jacob EllisRoseville, CALB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 225 lbReturning
#9JaQues EvansDublin, GALB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 270 lbReturning
#23Jaseim MitchellColorado Springs, COLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 225 lbReturning
#50Josh AyersParker, COLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 205 lbReturning
#56Kenyon AgursInglewood, CALB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 240 lbReturning
#52Paul TangeloGaithersburg, MDLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 235 lbReturning
#53Whitefield PowellAustin, TXLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 225 lbReturning
#34Amare GomezSan Diego, CARB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′9″ · 180 lbReturning
#33Keegan HollesGreenwood Village, CORB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 200 lbReturning
#22Konyae HunterLong Beach, CARB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 210 lbReturning
#36Casey CarrSan Jose, CAPK0.3 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 190 lbReturning
#23Nathan SutcliffeBuninyong, VICP0.3 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′6″ · 245 lbReturning
#46Cody PettittFort Collins, COLS0.3 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 210 lbReturning
#56Walker HimebauchMonument, COLS0.3 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 225 lbReturning
#98Isaiah HankinsLittle Rock, ARPK0.3 pts44% role · 52% conf.6′1″ · 195 lbReturning
#13Tommy PoholskyEvergreen, COQB0.2 pts4% starter · 40% conf.6′1″ · 210 lbReturning
#17Tyler LewisWalnut, CAQB0.2 pts4% starter · 40% conf.6′1″ · —Returning
#12Tahj BullockEast Orange, NJQB0.2 pts4% starter · 64% conf.6′3″ · 220 lbReturning
2026 schedule
The path that shapes the projection.
The model prices every scheduled game individually. Home field, neutral sites, completed results and opponent rating feed the expected-win total shown above.
WeekOpponentSiteDate / result
1WyomingNon-conference · Canvas Stadium · 4M 24–26 · 54% win
HomeSep 56:00 PM EDT · model ↗2
Southern UtahNon-conference · Canvas Stadium · 4M 23–30 · 66% win
HomeSep 127:00 PM EDT · model ↗3BYUNon-conference · Canvas Stadium · 4M 34–19 · 20% win
HomeSep 197:30 PM EDT · model ↗4
UTSANon-conference · Alamodome · 4M 21–32 · 26% win
AwaySep 2612:00 AM EDT · model ↗5
Oregon StateConference · Canvas Stadium · 4M 25–27 · 54% win
HomeOct 36:00 PM EDT · model ↗7
Texas StateConference · Bobcat Stadium (TX) · 4M 22–33 · 26% win
AwayOct 158:00 PM EDT · model ↗8
San Diego StateConference · Canvas Stadium · 4M 29–21 · 33% win
HomeOct 246:30 PM EDT · model ↗9
Utah StateConference · Maverik Stadium · 4M 23–30 · 36% win
AwayOct 313:30 PM EDT · model ↗10
Boise StateConference · Canvas Stadium · 4M 30–22 · 33% win
HomeNov 76:00 PM EST · model ↗11
Washington StateConference · Gesa Field · 4M 20–33 · 24% win
AwayNov 1410:30 PM EST · model ↗12
Fresno StateConference · Valley Children's Stadium · 4M 22–29 · 34% win
AwayNov 217:30 PM EST · model ↗
Range of outcomes
The projection is the middle—not the ceiling.
Floor case1 wins
Instability at premium positions turns swing games into losses.
4M midpoint3 wins
The roster performs close to its current power and schedule baseline.
Ceiling case6 wins
Quarterback play and line continuity outperform the preseason prior.
The betting lens
Price and matchup decide the play.
No team is an automatic bet or fade. The goal is to identify when the market's story about Colorado State diverges from the football conditions required to cover.
The spread is large, the favorite plays slowly, and the game script allows Colorado State to stay inside the number without chasing points.
The offense must play from behind, protect for long-yardage throws and generate explosives simply to reach the market expectation.
Quarterback efficiency, offensive-line cohesion and whether the defense can get off the field without blitzing itself out of structure.
Season-defining questionHow quickly will this roster establish itself inside the rebuilt Pac-12 hierarchy?