North Dakota State 2026 Preview — No. 114 in the 4M 138

The 2026 outlook

How quickly does an elite FCS line-of-scrimmage identity translate to a full FBS schedule?

North Dakota State opens No. 112 nationally and No. 5 of 10 in the Mountain West. The 4M baseline rates the roster 9.8 points below an average FBS team on a neutral field and projects 4.8 regular-season wins.

North Dakota State begins below the FBS average, so progress should first appear in functional line play, fewer negative snaps and cleaner late-game execution. That does not make this team an automatic fade; large spreads become valuable when the favorite lacks the pace or explosiveness to create margin.

The Bison enter the Mountain West with unusual program continuity for a newcomer. The model remains conservative because weekly depth is untested, but their physical baseline makes the median newcomer comparison too pessimistic.

The schedule projects among the country's most manageable at No. 124. That creates upside in the win column, but also a pricing trap: the record can improve faster than the underlying team quality, inviting bettors to pay for results that came against limited resistance.

Pressure pointFBS transition · entire front2025: First FBS season

Personnel command center

Who is back, who arrived and who has to matter.

The roster is grouped by continuity because returning snaps and proven transfer production are more useful than raw headcount. “New / unverified” means the player did not match last season's roster or the incoming portal file—not that the player is necessarily a freshman.

Head coachTim Polasek0–0 over the available CFBD career window

Staff continuityNew head coachContinuity is treated as context, not an automatic upgrade.

Portal ledger3 in · 7 outImpact is weighted by rating, position and prior usage.

Position-group modelPremium roles separated.Fifty is FBS average. Quarterback includes the modeled starter probability, not merely the best name in the room.

Quarterback35

Offensive line5

Receivers5

Defensive front5

Secondary5

InKene AneneIOL · from Kansas · 3★

InKeith Williams Jr.LB · from Cornell

InCaleb McGrathP · from Minnesota · 2★

OutToby AneneEDGE · to Colorado · 3★

OutBeau JohnsonOT · to Vanderbilt · 3★

OutNathaniel StaehlingLB · to Michigan · 3★

OutTrent FraleyIOL · to Michigan State · 3★

OutJailen DuffieCB · to UCF · 3★

OutJaquise AlexanderCB · to Delaware · 3★

OutEli OzickK · to Iowa

4M player valueHighest-leverage rolesMaximum point value assumes the player is fully unavailable and is reduced by status probability.

QBNathan Hayes3.4 pts66% starter · usage + PPA + QB starter probability

OLKene Anene0.5 pts38% expected role · portal role

LBKeith Williams0.4 pts38% expected role · portal role

RBDJ Scott0.4 pts40% expected role · usage + PPA

QBHenry Nelson0.4 pts8% starter · QB starter probability

QBPreston Brown0.4 pts8% starter · QB starter probability

Find a player

PlayerPos.4M valueSizeContinuity

#55Kene AneneCottage Grove, MNOL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 310 lbTransfer infrom Kansas

#52Keith WilliamsMilwaukee, WILB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 240 lbTransfer infrom Cornell

#51Caleb McGrathApple Valley, MNP0.3 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 205 lbTransfer infrom Minnesota

#2Nathan HayesWest Chicago, ILQB3.4 pts66% starter · 52% conf.6′3″ · 228 lbNew / unverified

#7DJ ScottOviedo, FLRB0.4 pts40% role · 52% conf.5′11″ · 215 lbNew / unverified

#16Henry NelsonMeridian, IDQB0.4 pts8% starter · 28% conf.6′3″ · 210 lbNew / unverified

#0Preston BrownFestus, MOQB0.4 pts8% starter · 28% conf.6′1″ · 215 lbNew / unverified

#10Trey DrakeJamestown, NYQB0.4 pts8% starter · 28% conf.6′3″ · 213 lbNew / unverified

#13Zander SmithLakeland, FLQB0.4 pts8% starter · 28% conf.6′3″ · 225 lbNew / unverified

#18Jackson WilliamsOmaha, NEWR0.4 pts26% role · 52% conf.5′11″ · 185 lbNew / unverified

#15Mekhi CollinsNorth Mankato, MNWR0.3 pts25% role · 52% conf.6′4″ · 215 lbNew / unverified

#81Reis KesselFargo, NDTE0.3 pts24% role · 52% conf.6′5″ · 245 lbNew / unverified

#84Logan ConklinMinot, NDWR0.3 pts23% role · 52% conf.6′4″ · 205 lbNew / unverified

#40Kaden ZenzenHawley, MNTE0.3 pts22% role · 52% conf.6′4″ · 250 lbNew / unverified

#4Nyeoti PunniLebanon, NHRB0.3 pts33% role · 52% conf.6′1″ · 225 lbNew / unverified

#73Alex WardenSuamico, WIOT0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′6″ · 280 lbNew / unverified

#77Austin SchultzMoorhead, MNOT0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 305 lbNew / unverified

#57Gavin WangAnnandale, MNOT0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′7″ · 298 lbNew / unverified

#75Josh MaginShakopee, MNOT0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′6″ · 308 lbNew / unverified

#78Noah StommesRichmond, MNOT0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′6″ · 300 lbNew / unverified

#76Ryan BabatzMontrose, MNOT0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′5″ · 315 lbNew / unverified

#61Gage SchmidtNorth Mankato, MNC0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 300 lbNew / unverified

#67Earl BrownPillager, MNOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′5″ · 310 lbNew / unverified

#63Trey McPartlandValley City, NDOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′5″ · 285 lbNew / unverified

#70Tucker ThienemanPewaukee, WIOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 291 lbNew / unverified

#56Allante BurleyLawrenceville, GADE0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 240 lbNew / unverified

#93Anthony OkesGreat Falls, MTDE0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 260 lbNew / unverified

#48Blake SchiltzPine Island, MNDE0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 250 lbNew / unverified

#92Daniel DevineSaint Paul, MNDE0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 245 lbNew / unverified

#91Ethan WoodMount Vernon, IADE0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 255 lbNew / unverified

#9Kelton McCaslinSt. Charles, ILDE0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′5″ · 250 lbNew / unverified

#11Matthew StenbrotenLake Mills, WIDE0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 250 lbNew / unverified

#97Simon VintonPlymouth, MNDE0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′5″ · 240 lbNew / unverified

#60Thomas RobertsAlbion, NEDE0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 275 lbNew / unverified

#90Truman GriffithShawnee, KSDE0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 260 lbNew / unverified

#0Victor IseleGrand Island, NEDE0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 260 lbNew / unverified

#54Alijah WayneOmaha, NEDT0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 290 lbNew / unverified

#65Brody ClubbTiffin, IADT0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 290 lbNew / unverified

#53Chase EvinkHancock, MNDT0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′5″ · 285 lbNew / unverified

#98Jack HansenEagan, MNDT0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 282 lbNew / unverified

#64Jason HunterFargo, NDDT0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′5″ · 265 lbNew / unverified

#8Keenan WilsonEagan, MNDT0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 290 lbNew / unverified

#94Logan LarsonWoodbury, MNDT0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 290 lbNew / unverified

#99Obald NiyonkuruAltoona, IADT0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′11″ · 290 lbNew / unverified

#69Skyler WernerSavage, MNDT0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 270 lbNew / unverified

#58Zach HellendrungBoyceville, WIDT0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 275 lbNew / unverified

#95Zach VanderpoolByron, MNDT0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′5″ · 285 lbNew / unverified

#87Brandon WaltonKenosha, WIWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 181 lbNew / unverified

#83Cade OstermanElk River, MNWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 192 lbNew / unverified

#21Chris KielMount Horeb, WIWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′11″ · 205 lbNew / unverified

#20Drake SchlosserStanley, NDWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 195 lbNew / unverified

#86Dylan VokalMaple Grove, MNWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 202 lbNew / unverified

#17Isiah St. RomainWilliston, NDWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 200 lbNew / unverified

#80Jacob KilzerMaple Grove, MNWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 205 lbNew / unverified

#8Jeremiah PattersonSan Francisco, CAWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′9″ · 175 lbNew / unverified

#27Joaquin JordanHomewood, ILWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 196 lbNew / unverified

#19John GoresFargo, NDWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′6″ · 175 lbNew / unverified

#11Jordan McCantsBirmingham, ALWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′11″ · 190 lbNew / unverified

#30Kelly WatsonElmhurst, ILWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′11″ · 195 lbNew / unverified

#23Kye SchlichtingHorace, NDWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 201 lbNew / unverified

#12Myles EllisFlossmoor, ILWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′9″ · 160 lbNew / unverified

#82SJ GreenTampa, FLWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′10″ · 185 lbNew / unverified

#89Tochi OkoroDodge City, KSWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 195 lbNew / unverified

#96Abraham MyersSioux Falls, SDTE0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 250 lbNew / unverified

#46Caden WardLincoln, NETE0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 230 lbNew / unverified

#43Cash DannerThompson, NDTE0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′5″ · 235 lbNew / unverified

#49Colten GundersonSavage, MNTE0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′7″ · 240 lbNew / unverified

#9Gabriel CunninghamWentzville, MOTE0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 242 lbNew / unverified

#88Isaac EllisonMenomonie, WITE0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 225 lbNew / unverified

#85Jett ZabelPierre, SDTE0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 235 lbNew / unverified

#44Luke KokatSturtevant, WITE0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 250 lbNew / unverified

#87Noah NelsonHawley, MNTE0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′5″ · 240 lbNew / unverified

#32Brayden DozierMaple Grove, MNCB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 189 lbNew / unverified

#7Chance TuckerEncino, CACB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 190 lbNew / unverified

#34Deron RussellWaseca, MNCB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 180 lbNew / unverified

#12DJ VoltzSaginaw, MICB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 180 lbNew / unverified

#2EJ DavisOrlando, FLCB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 190 lbNew / unverified

#23Kegan HuberLake Geneva, WICB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 190 lbNew / unverified

#28Kendrick CarterDallas, TXCB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′10″ · 179 lbNew / unverified

#24Kobe RussellPrescott, WICB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 197 lbNew / unverified

#27Landon MeierFargo, NDCB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′11″ · 195 lbNew / unverified

#16Marion MooreMadison, WICB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′11″ · 190 lbNew / unverified

#4Najee NelsonLakeville, MNCB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′11″ · 197 lbNew / unverified

#31Q BarnslaterBurnsville, MNCB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 170 lbNew / unverified

#19Will RosenmeyerHighlands Ranch, COCB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 188 lbNew / unverified

#29Darius GivanceChamplin, MNS0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 215 lbNew / unverified

#26Evrett TaitChippewa Falls, WIS0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 205 lbNew / unverified

#36Gunner ThielgesLamoure, NDS0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 201 lbNew / unverified

#22Hudson ArtzFairmont, MNS0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 205 lbNew / unverified

#30Jaylen ArchibaldFrisco, TXS0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 205 lbNew / unverified

#6Jaylin CrumbyTampa, FLS0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′11″ · 200 lbNew / unverified

#13Mikhale FordLincoln, NES0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′11″ · 190 lbNew / unverified

#14Taylen EadyToano, VAS0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 205 lbNew / unverified

#33Walker BraatenWesthope, NDS0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 190 lbNew / unverified

#20Will SteilCold Spring, MNS0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 205 lbNew / unverified

#42Alex ElliottHutchinson, MNLB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 220 lbNew / unverified

#38Ben ScheppVelva, NDLB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 210 lbNew / unverified

#44Carter ApplMenasha, WILB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 215 lbNew / unverified

#50Damian DevineSaint Paul, MNLB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 230 lbNew / unverified

#1Donovan WoolenFrisco, TXLB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 230 lbNew / unverified

#3Gavin SellWoodville, WILB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 230 lbNew / unverified

#46Jack WilsonVerona, WILB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 225 lbNew / unverified

#47Jacob WrbanekMaple Grove, MNLB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 228 lbNew / unverified

#45Luke TetzlaffKaukauna, WILB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 223 lbNew / unverified

#21Noah TaylorLemont, ILLB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 228 lbNew / unverified

#55Oliver LuchtFargo, NDLB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 228 lbNew / unverified

#41Peder HaugoFargo, NDLB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 230 lbNew / unverified

#25Ray James Jr.Eden Prairie, MNLB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 240 lbNew / unverified

#35Ryland SatterSioux Falls, SDLB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 235 lbNew / unverified

#5Myles MitchellChicago, ILRB0.2 pts23% role · 52% conf.5′9″ · 205 lbNew / unverified

#32Barry KpeenuWest Fargo, NDRB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′10″ · 205 lbNew / unverified

#26Brady WavrunekSioux City, IARB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′11″ · 213 lbNew / unverified

#8Braylon ToliverErie, CORB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′11″ · 195 lbNew / unverified

#22Charles Ross IIIKansas City, MORB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′9″ · 200 lbNew / unverified

#28Cortez LeGrantSun Prairie, WIRB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′10″ · 200 lbNew / unverified

#25Godson Rufus-OkomhanruMounds View, MNRB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 187 lbNew / unverified

#34Jonathan HarveyMahtomedi, MNRB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′10″ · 200 lbNew / unverified

#74Brett TastadRolette, NDG0.1 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′5″ · 298 lbNew / unverified

#68Coy OkesonMinot, NDG0.1 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′5″ · 310 lbNew / unverified

#37Drew KleinHortonville, WIPK0.1 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′9″ · 185 lbNew / unverified

#45Gatlin EmpeyStoughton, WIFB0.1 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 235 lbNew / unverified

#62Griffin EmpeyStoughton, WIG0.1 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 302 lbNew / unverified

#66Jack LiwienskiChanhassen, MNG0.1 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 297 lbNew / unverified

#59James NellisGrafton, WIG0.1 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 290 lbNew / unverified

#38Jayden OnuongaForest Lake, MNPK0.1 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 205 lbNew / unverified

#72Nate SchnecklothEldridge, IAG0.1 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′5″ · 300 lbNew / unverified

#71Nate TastadRolette, NDG0.1 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′5″ · 303 lbNew / unverified

#39Aaron BickertonStokeP0.1 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 225 lbNew / unverified

#48CJ AndersonElgin, SCLS0.1 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 240 lbNew / unverified

#57Gabe VernettiMachesney Park, ILLS0.1 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′11″ · 232 lbNew / unverified

2026 schedule

The path that shapes the projection.

The model prices every scheduled game individually. Home field, neutral sites, completed results and opponent rating feed the expected-win total shown above.

WeekOpponentSiteDate / result

Jacksonville StateNon-conference · Fargodome · 4M 27–26 · 47% win

HomeAug 295:30 PM EDT · model ↗1

FordhamNon-conference · Fargodome · 4M 16–36 · 87% win

HomeSep 53:30 PM EDT · model ↗2

Air ForceConference · Falcon Stadium · 4M 26–30 · 41% win

AwaySep 1210:00 PM EDT · model ↗3

Sacramento StateNon-conference · Hornet Stadium · 4M 27–25 · 53% win

AwaySep 1910:30 PM EDT · model ↗5

WyomingConference · Fargodome · 4M 23–26 · 56% win

HomeOct 33:30 PM EDT · model ↗6

UNLVConference · Allegiant Stadium · 4M 22–33 · 27% win

AwayOct 107:00 PM EDT · model ↗7

NevadaConference · Fargodome · 4M 24–27 · 58% win

HomeOct 177:00 PM EDT · model ↗8

New MexicoConference · University Stadium (NM) · 4M 21–30 · 31% win

AwayOct 2410:00 PM EDT · model ↗9

UTEPConference · Fargodome · 4M 21–28 · 64% win

HomeOct 313:30 PM EDT · model ↗11

Hawai'iConference · Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex · 4M 23–29 · 36% win

AwayNov 1411:59 PM EST · model ↗12

Northern IllinoisConference · Fargodome · 4M 23–28 · 60% win

HomeNov 214:00 PM EST · model ↗13

San José StateConference · CEFCU Stadium · 4M 25–28 · 44% win

AwayNov 273:30 PM EST · model ↗

Range of outcomes

The projection is the middle—not the ceiling.

Floor case3 wins

Instability at premium positions turns swing games into losses.

4M midpoint5 wins

The roster performs close to its current power and schedule baseline.

Ceiling case7 wins

Quarterback play and line continuity outperform the preseason prior.

The betting lens

Price and matchup decide the play.

No team is an automatic bet or fade. The goal is to identify when the market's story about North Dakota State diverges from the football conditions required to cover.

Back them when

The spread is large, the favorite plays slowly, and the game script allows North Dakota State to stay inside the number without chasing points.

Pass or fade when

The offense must play from behind, protect for long-yardage throws and generate explosives simply to reach the market expectation.

Watch first

Whether the new personnel produces the role-specific answers described above—not merely whether the most recognizable names play.

Season-defining questionHow quickly does an elite FCS line-of-scrimmage identity translate to a full FBS schedule?