The 2026 outlook
Will experienced line play and close-game execution create a MAC breakthrough?
Buffalo opens No. 124 nationally and No. 8 of 13 in the MAC. The 4M baseline rates the roster 13.8 points below an average FBS team on a neutral field and projects 3.7 regular-season wins.
Buffalo begins below the FBS average, so progress should first appear in functional line play, fewer negative snaps and cleaner late-game execution. That does not make this team an automatic fade; large spreads become valuable when the favorite lacks the pace or explosiveness to create margin.
Depth is the central concern. Transfers can raise the first unit quickly, but the two-deep has to hold up across twelve games. The first month should reveal whether the rebuild created real competition or simply moved uncertainty from one position group to another.
The schedule projects among the country's most manageable at No. 132. That creates upside in the win column, but also a pricing trap: the record can improve faster than the underlying team quality, inviting bettors to pay for results that came against limited resistance.
Personnel command center
Who is back, who arrived and who has to matter.
The roster is grouped by continuity because returning snaps and proven transfer production are more useful than raw headcount. “New / unverified” means the player did not match last season's roster or the incoming portal file—not that the player is necessarily a freshman.
Head coachPete Lembo14–11 over the available CFBD career window
Staff continuityReturning head coachContinuity is treated as context, not an automatic upgrade.
Portal ledger16 in · 16 outImpact is weighted by rating, position and prior usage.
Position-group modelPremium roles separated.Fifty is FBS average. Quarterback includes the modeled starter probability, not merely the best name in the room.
4M player valueHighest-leverage rolesMaximum point value assumes the player is fully unavailable and is reduced by status probability.
PlayerPos.4M valueSizeContinuity
#16Elijah HolmesCharlotte, NCQB0.7 pts16% starter · 40% conf.6′1″ · 215 lbTransfer infrom Wingate
#87Trevor WilsonPark Hills, KYTE0.6 pts45% role · 64% conf.6′2″ · 240 lbTransfer infrom Campbell
#78Joe CrockerAscotOL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′6″ · 339 lbTransfer infrom Baylor
#76Nathan NatoliOlney, MDOL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′6″ · 305 lbTransfer infrom Bucknell
#74Nino FrancavillaToronto, ONOL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 300 lbTransfer infrom Miami
#16Caleb OliverDeltona, FLEDGE0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 235 lbTransfer infrom Wofford
#17Logan GoodwinWest Chester, PAEDGE0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 240 lbTransfer infrom IU Pennsylvania
#15Sedrick VessahChambersburg, PAEDGE0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 230 lbTransfer infrom California (PA)
#55Mason NickelMidland, MIDT0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 290 lbTransfer infrom Saginaw Valley State
#95Stantavious SmithAlbany, GADT0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 280 lbTransfer infrom Florida A&M
#24Sayre SmothersCincinnati, OHCB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 160 lbTransfer infrom The Citadel
#13Joey CheshireLakeland, FLLB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 235 lbTransfer infrom Cornell
#2Stevie BraceyAtlanta, GALB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 235 lbTransfer infrom Virginia
#44Zach BergmannRogersville, MOLB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 230 lbTransfer infrom Missouri Southern State
#93Andrew VanSlykePowhatan, VAP0.3 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 209 lbTransfer infrom James Madison
#48Joseph StoeverSavannah, GALS0.3 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 210 lbTransfer infrom Georgia Tech
#7Jason WrightChesterfield, VAQB2.1 pts52% starter · 64% conf.6′2″ · 200 lbReturning
#15Mason CumbieHopewell, VAQB1.1 pts25% starter · 40% conf.6′1″ · 205 lbReturning
#6Chance MorrowCharlotte, NCWR0.8 pts55% role · 64% conf.6′4″ · 191 lbReturning
#8Jasaiah GathingsStatesville, NCWR0.6 pts59% role · 64% conf.6′1″ · 190 lbReturning
#75Ahmaan ThomasMansfield, OHOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 320 lbReturning
#71Caleb WattsPrince George, VAOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 305 lbReturning
#59Gabriel ArenaHarrisburg, PAOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 293 lbReturning
#69Jackson BellamyAncaster, ONOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 341 lbReturning
#77Jackson DavenportDarien, CTOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 270 lbReturning
#64Jacob MerrittNorthville, MIOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′6″ · 304 lbReturning
#62Paul ClarkCrown Point, INOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 285 lbReturning
#70Robbie WestmillerAlden, NYOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 271 lbReturning
#55Thomas BarrHavertown, PAOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 292 lbReturning
#51Tyrone DavisSyracuse, NYOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 298 lbReturning
#60Val KondratenkoRochester, NYOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 290 lbReturning
#30Jacari BennettSimpsonville, SCEDGE0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 240 lbReturning
#94Noah WittmerWebster, NYEDGE0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 230 lbReturning
#11Will ClarkCrown Point, INEDGE0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 258 lbReturning
#96Charlton GoodellBradenton, FLDT0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 245 lbReturning
#99Cornell EvansBaltimore, MDDT0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 290 lbReturning
#92Luke Yau GayleLondonDT0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 280 lbReturning
#97Christopher ClimesLa Belle, PADL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 280 lbReturning
#88Rex StinchcombHerndon, VADL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 285 lbReturning
#3Patrick Clacks IIIHobart, INWR0.6 pts55% role · 64% conf.6′0″ · 195 lbReturning
#24James McNeil Jr.Buffalo, NYRB0.5 pts46% role · 64% conf.6′0″ · 217 lbReturning
#9Alvin Jones IIIChesapeake, VAWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 185 lbReturning
#13Bobby MaysBergenfield, NJWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 190 lbReturning
#11Dwayne Early Jr.Springfield, MAWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 198 lbReturning
#17Jeremiah WatkinsGahanna, OHWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 200 lbReturning
#10Mark-Anthony Scott Jr.Port Jefferson Station, NYWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′7″ · 172 lbReturning
#1Phillip FolmarMorristown, NJWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′9″ · 185 lbReturning
#28Shey WilliamsLockport, NYWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 181 lbReturning
#82Terrell RichardsRochester, NYWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′8″ · 170 lbReturning
#14Tyrell Simmons Jr.Rochester, NYWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 190 lbReturning
#86Michael GelatkoAndreas, PATE0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 240 lbReturning
#89Nick LeonardVictor, NYTE0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 255 lbReturning
#27Davion CoffeeRochester, NYCB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′9″ · 195 lbReturning
#22Donovan RodriguezLancaster, PACB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 185 lbReturning
#12Jackson SmallUpper Marlboro, MDCB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 185 lbReturning
#9Keontez BradleyMansfield, OHCB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 185 lbReturning
#0Kobi BlackwellBuford, GACB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′8″ · 180 lbReturning
#5Mikey CrawfordPittsburgh, PACB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 195 lbReturning
#3Oliver BridgesPotomac, MDCB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 215 lbReturning
#8Ramari TaylorJeffersontown, KYCB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 195 lbReturning
#10Jamiere MunsonRochester, NYS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 196 lbReturning
#7John KeoughMacedonia, OHS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 202 lbReturning
#14Jonathan RousseauCoconut Creek, FLS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 193 lbReturning
#6Miles GreerSpringfield, VAS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 195 lbReturning
#4Ronnell DavisPhiladelphia, PAS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 193 lbReturning
#43Xair StevensonPittsburgh, PAS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 188 lbReturning
#23Xavier LeonardAtlanta, GAS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 200 lbReturning
#25Terrance Shelton Jr.Franklin, WIRB0.5 pts52% role · 64% conf.5′11″ · 213 lbReturning
#21Devare MathisBuffalo, NYRB0.5 pts46% role · 64% conf.5′11″ · 215 lbReturning
#21Bradley Ilunga-BisseleleMontreal, PQLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 221 lbReturning
#20DJ ManganMaplewood, NJLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 239 lbReturning
#31Drake SaltarelliBelleair Bluffs, FLLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 218 lbReturning
#18George HillTurtle Creek, PALB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 210 lbReturning
#33Jordan OwensEndwell, NYLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 220 lbReturning
#19Mathew HiltyApollo, PALB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 220 lbReturning
#1SaVeon BrownPhoenix, ILLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 210 lbReturning
#0Nino HillCanton, OHRB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 217 lbReturning
#4Messiah BurchStaten Island, NYRB0.4 pts49% role · 64% conf.5′9″ · 190 lbReturning
#31Oliver HautanenColleyville, TXPK0.3 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 182 lbReturning
#90Ethan StumpfPark Ridge, ILP0.3 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 200 lbReturning
#58Ben Foglia-AlbrechtBuffalo, NYOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 280 lbNew / unverified
#79Cam DavisNewark, OHOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′5″ · 280 lbNew / unverified
#72Jaden MaxeyPhoenix, AZOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′6″ · 290 lbNew / unverified
#56Marco CateCarmel, INOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 295 lbNew / unverified
#68Mike WhalenNatick, MAOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 305 lbNew / unverified
#49Aiden AndersonOrlando, FLEDGE0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 235 lbNew / unverified
#91Henri ZeneliPhiladelphia, PAEDGE0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 245 lbNew / unverified
#35Malachi ErvinPickerington, OHEDGE0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 230 lbNew / unverified
#34Preston LunsfordNewark, OHEDGE0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 230 lbNew / unverified
#50Zach PettittCarthage, NYEDGE0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 220 lbNew / unverified
#98Mason NapleVictor, NYDT0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 270 lbNew / unverified
#59Royce RogersSpringfield, OHDT0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 270 lbNew / unverified
#66Will ReedOak Park, MIDT0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 260 lbNew / unverified
#88Aaron ClarkPhiladelphia, PAWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′11″ · 190 lbNew / unverified
#83Jack EskridgeBuffalo, NYWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′6″ · 150 lbNew / unverified
#2Jaylen AndrewsWilliamsport, PAWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 185 lbNew / unverified
#85Aiden HowardBinghamton, NYTE0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 230 lbNew / unverified
#5Clint WalkerGoshen, INTE0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 240 lbNew / unverified
#45Stone RozakBuffalo, NYTE0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 225 lbNew / unverified
#81TJ SabatucciPittsburgh, PATE0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 235 lbNew / unverified
#29Cardel StaplesBuffalo, NYCB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′11″ · 175 lbNew / unverified
#28Drayson CraneDallas, TXCB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 195 lbNew / unverified
#37Jamarcus JonesColumbus, OHCB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′11″ · 170 lbNew / unverified
#47Bryce WilliamsVenice, FLS0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′11″ · 190 lbNew / unverified
#38Dylan ClearyEllicott City, MDS0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 193 lbNew / unverified
#26Zae JenningsCincinnati, OHS0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 192 lbNew / unverified
#40Amari SnowdenRochester, NYLB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 210 lbNew / unverified
#51Anwar Witherspoon Jr.Edison, NJLB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 220 lbNew / unverified
#52Jack GarbolinoNorth Brunswick, NJLB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 227 lbNew / unverified
#32Matthew HeiningerRochester, NYLB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 220 lbNew / unverified
#25Na'Rod JarvisChesapeake, VALB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 215 lbNew / unverified
#18Jake ForburgerBethesda, MDQB0.2 pts4% starter · 28% conf.6′0″ · 215 lbNew / unverified
#12Qur'An McNeillBoston, MAQB0.2 pts4% starter · 28% conf.6′3″ · 215 lbNew / unverified
#26Chase EnlowManalapan, NJRB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′10″ · 190 lbNew / unverified
#39Blake SholderVoorhees, NJPK0.1 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 215 lbNew / unverified
#96Zach McGowanTonawanda, NYPK0.1 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 190 lbNew / unverified
#95Evan PfeiferPittsburgh, PAP0.1 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 190 lbNew / unverified
#42Sam StrattonEast Amherst, NYLS0.1 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 185 lbNew / unverified
2026 schedule
The path that shapes the projection.
The model prices every scheduled game individually. Home field, neutral sites, completed results and opponent rating feed the expected-win total shown above.
WeekOpponentSiteDate / result
1UAlbanyNon-conference · UB Stadium · 4M 16–34 · 84% win
HomeSep 37:00 PM EDT · model ↗2Florida InternationalNon-conference · Pitbull Stadium · 4M 23–27 · 42% win
AwaySep 126:00 PM EDT · model ↗3Penn StateNon-conference · Beaver Stadium · 4M 14–37 · 10% win
AwaySep 1912:00 PM EDT · model ↗4
Robert MorrisNon-conference · UB Stadium · 4M 16–34 · 83% win
HomeSep 263:30 PM EDT · model ↗5Western MichiganConference · UB Stadium · 4M 28–20 · 33% win
HomeOct 312:00 AM EDT · model ↗6
ToledoConference · Glass Bowl · 4M 18–31 · 24% win
AwayOct 1012:00 AM EDT · model ↗7
MassachusettsConference · UB Stadium · 4M 19–30 · 74% win
HomeOct 1712:00 AM EDT · model ↗8
Bowling GreenConference · UB Stadium · 4M 24–25 · 52% win
HomeOct 2412:00 AM EDT · model ↗10
Miami (OH)Conference · Yager Stadium · 4M 20–29 · 30% win
AwayNov 37:00 PM EST · model ↗11
Ball StateConference · Scheumann Stadium · 4M 25–23 · 56% win
AwayNov 1112:00 AM EST · model ↗12
Central MichiganConference · UB Stadium · 4M 26–23 · 43% win
HomeNov 1812:00 AM EST · model ↗13
AkronConference · InfoCision Stadium · 4M 25–25 · 50% win
AwayNov 2712:00 PM EST · model ↗
Range of outcomes
The projection is the middle—not the ceiling.
Floor case2 wins
Instability at premium positions turns swing games into losses.
4M midpoint4 wins
The roster performs close to its current power and schedule baseline.
Ceiling case6 wins
Quarterback play and line continuity outperform the preseason prior.
The betting lens
Price and matchup decide the play.
No team is an automatic bet or fade. The goal is to identify when the market's story about Buffalo diverges from the football conditions required to cover.
The spread is large, the favorite plays slowly, and the game script allows Buffalo to stay inside the number without chasing points.
The offense must play from behind, protect for long-yardage throws and generate explosives simply to reach the market expectation.
Quarterback efficiency, offensive-line cohesion and whether the defense can get off the field without blitzing itself out of structure.
Season-defining questionWill experienced line play and close-game execution create a MAC breakthrough?