The 2026 outlook
Can this team turn a manageable schedule into a real Conference USA title path?
Florida International opens No. 111 nationally and No. 5 of 10 in the CUSA. The 4M baseline rates the roster 9.5 points below an average FBS team on a neutral field and projects 0 regular-season wins.
Florida International begins below the FBS average, so progress should first appear in functional line play, fewer negative snaps and cleaner late-game execution. That does not make this team an automatic fade; large spreads become valuable when the favorite lacks the pace or explosiveness to create margin.
Depth is the central concern. Transfers can raise the first unit quickly, but the two-deep has to hold up across twelve games. The first month should reveal whether the rebuild created real competition or simply moved uncertainty from one position group to another.
The schedule projects among the country's most manageable at No. 134. That creates upside in the win column, but also a pricing trap: the record can improve faster than the underlying team quality, inviting bettors to pay for results that came against limited resistance.
Personnel command center
Who is back, who arrived and who has to matter.
The roster is grouped by continuity because returning snaps and proven transfer production are more useful than raw headcount. “New / unverified” means the player did not match last season's roster or the incoming portal file—not that the player is necessarily a freshman.
Head coachWillie Simmons7–6 over the available CFBD career window
Staff continuityReturning head coachContinuity is treated as context, not an automatic upgrade.
Portal ledger17 in · 22 outImpact is weighted by rating, position and prior usage.
Position-group modelPremium roles separated.Fifty is FBS average. Quarterback includes the modeled starter probability, not merely the best name in the room.
4M player valueHighest-leverage rolesMaximum point value assumes the player is fully unavailable and is reduced by status probability.
PlayerPos.4M valueSizeContinuity
#17JJ KohlAnkeny, IAQB5.3 pts94% starter · 76% conf.6′7″ · 250 lbTransfer infrom App State
#8Greg Gaines IIITampa, FLWR0.8 pts55% role · 64% conf.6′3″ · 200 lbTransfer infrom Rhode Island
#88Kevin SchaefferHewitt, NJTE0.6 pts41% role · 64% conf.6′5″ · 245 lbTransfer infrom Rhode Island
#55Daveion HarleyQuincy, FLOL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 310 lbTransfer infrom California
#51Manasseh RipertLakeland, FLOL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 290 lbTransfer infrom Western Carolina
#73Spencer WebbAlton, ILOL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 295 lbTransfer infrom Eastern Michigan
#88Elijah SimmonsCharlotte, NCDL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 285 lbTransfer infrom West Virginia
#55Jamorie FlaggMiami, FLDL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 315 lbTransfer infrom Florida State
#15Nathan JenningsMadison, ALDL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 295 lbTransfer infrom South Alabama
#12RJ Moss Jr.Biloxi, MSDL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 285 lbTransfer infrom South Alabama
#2DeAndre BoykinsBeaufort, SCDB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 200 lbTransfer infrom Oklahoma State
#6Lawrence JohnsonMiami, FLDB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 190 lbTransfer infrom Florida Atlantic
#4Wesley MillerColumbia, MSDB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 190 lbTransfer infrom South Alabama
#22Brayshawn LittlejohnGaffney, SCLB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 225 lbTransfer infrom App State
#20Matt IvaldiMiami, FLQB0.2 pts4% starter · 40% conf.5′11″ · 200 lbTransfer infrom Fordham
#2Maguire AndersonLutz, FLWR0.7 pts51% role · 64% conf.6′0″ · 185 lbReturning
#0Jojo StoneFairburn, GAWR0.7 pts52% role · 64% conf.5′11″ · 185 lbReturning
#7Kyle McNealRiviera Beach, FLWR0.7 pts55% role · 64% conf.6′1″ · 185 lbReturning
#9Jackson VerdugoCollege Station, TXTE0.6 pts51% role · 64% conf.6′4″ · 250 lbReturning
#52Akeem NealOrange Park, FLOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 315 lbReturning
#71Antonio Tripp Jr.Baltimore, MDOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 305 lbReturning
#50Jeremy SmithMiami, FLOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 290 lbReturning
#67Jon RodriguezFort Lauderdale, FLOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 300 lbReturning
#56Marc Michel Jr.Davenport, FLOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 300 lbReturning
#74Matias GarciaFort Lauderdale, FLOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 285 lbReturning
#75Miguel CedenoDavie, FLOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′8″ · 320 lbReturning
#53Nathan TveitOviedo, FLOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 310 lbReturning
#60Noah FernandezCoral Springs, FLOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 315 lbReturning
#76Samson ChazulleFort Lauderdale, FLOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 325 lbReturning
#66Takaylen MuexJacksonville, FLOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 320 lbReturning
#54Zaire FlournoyDouglasville, GAOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 335 lbReturning
#6Eric Nelson Jr.Miramar, FLWR0.6 pts47% role · 64% conf.6′3″ · 175 lbReturning
#5Kenton SimmonsJackson, MSDE0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 245 lbReturning
#99Germaine CarterMiami, FLDT0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 270 lbReturning
#95Anthony SmithFort Lauderdale, FLDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 345 lbReturning
#13Dante AndersonMiami, FLDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 250 lbReturning
#24King MasseyJacksonville, FLDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 245 lbReturning
#91Kyrie SamuelFort Lauderdale, FLDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 260 lbReturning
#45Lamont Green Jr.Miami, FLDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 235 lbReturning
#16Nick WatsonFort Lauderdale, FLDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 235 lbReturning
#48Richard NwaukoniCoconut Creek, FLDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 280 lbReturning
#14Robert WilliamsMiami, FLDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 235 lbReturning
#1Anthony CarrieTampa, FLRB0.5 pts63% role · 76% conf.6′0″ · 205 lbReturning
#12Amari IsaacHollywood, FLWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 205 lbReturning
#18Andre BrownMiami, FLWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′6″ · 150 lbReturning
#15Donovan GilesViera, FLWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 200 lbReturning
#80Dylan HermanHometown not listedWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 190 lbReturning
#14Kenny WilliamsMiami, FLWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 170 lbReturning
#89Sean BurkeHollywood, FLTE0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 235 lbReturning
#13Tyson CarterOrlando, FLWR0.5 pts49% role · 64% conf.5′11″ · 175 lbReturning
#3Demetrius HillMiami, FLDB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 205 lbReturning
#7Jai-Ayviauynn CelestineMiami, FLDB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′9″ · 175 lbReturning
#19Myles CunninghamAtlanta, GADB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 170 lbReturning
#10Ormond WallacePinson, ALDB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 210 lbReturning
#1Shamir SterlinPort Saint Lucie, FLDB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 215 lbReturning
#23Tyderick BrownDallas, TXDB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 175 lbReturning
#34Cam DavisPompano Beach, FLLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 225 lbReturning
#9Josiah TaylorSebring, FLLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 230 lbReturning
#17Kani SmithPahokee, FLLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 210 lbReturning
#28Orlando Syph-TimmonsMountain House, CALB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 220 lbReturning
#11Percy Courtney Jr.Miami, FLLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 225 lbReturning
#3Devonte LyonsSaint Augustine, FLRB0.4 pts53% role · 64% conf.5′11″ · 190 lbReturning
#21Nate HenryMiramar, FLRB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′9″ · 190 lbReturning
#22Sterling JosephMiami, FLRB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′9″ · 195 lbReturning
#41Stone SpringmanSarasota, FLP0.3 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 215 lbReturning
#47Justin WoodMiami, FLLS0.3 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 195 lbReturning
#48Robert CzeremchaMiami, FLPK0.3 pts44% role · 52% conf.6′1″ · 175 lbReturning
#16Zachary WatersBoca Raton, FLQB0.2 pts4% starter · 40% conf.6′0″ · 195 lbReturning
#61Ignacio ZulaicaWest Palm Beach, FLOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′11″ · 265 lbNew / unverified
#78Nickolas MolinaBronx, NYOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′7″ · 290 lbNew / unverified
#58Oscar ColonBrooklyn, NYOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 310 lbNew / unverified
#77Riley WilsonTampa, FLOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 285 lbNew / unverified
#44Michael SmartsMiami Gardens, FLDE0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 240 lbNew / unverified
#90Anthony CunninghamEast St. Louis, ILDL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 295 lbNew / unverified
#33DeeJay Holmes Jr.Pahokee, FLDL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 260 lbNew / unverified
#97Elisha BaldridgeBig Prairie, OHDL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 245 lbNew / unverified
#92Lukenson MorancyApopka, FLDL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 275 lbNew / unverified
#84Barrett SchulzOrange City, FLWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′5″ · 190 lbNew / unverified
#83Malik PensonGoulds, FLWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′10″ · 170 lbNew / unverified
#81Ayden PassleyJupiter, FLTE0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′5″ · 230 lbNew / unverified
#19Davis BrownRaleigh, NCTE0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 275 lbNew / unverified
#4James ResarYulee, FLTE0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′5″ · 235 lbNew / unverified
#87Remy GoinsMiami, FLTE0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 215 lbNew / unverified
#0Da'Vontae FloydNorfolk, VADB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′10″ · 180 lbNew / unverified
#29Dominic TurnbullMiami, FLDB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 195 lbNew / unverified
#27Eric JohnsonLoganville, GADB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 190 lbNew / unverified
#32Jaeden McMillanMelbourne, FLDB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 195 lbNew / unverified
#35Jahmani Chin-SuerFort Lauderdale, FLDB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′9″ · 170 lbNew / unverified
#25Jakari JohnsonFort Lauderdale, FLDB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′11″ · 200 lbNew / unverified
#21Karaijus HayesSarasota, FLDB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′11″ · 185 lbNew / unverified
#20Kiyante IngramPowder Springs, GADB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′10″ · 175 lbNew / unverified
#8Ryan GadsonFort Myers, FLDB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′10″ · 190 lbNew / unverified
#26Zay WestMadison, FLDB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 170 lbNew / unverified
#37Deandre ArnoldMadison, FLLB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 195 lbNew / unverified
#31Demitris MinceyFort Lauderdale, FLLB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 210 lbNew / unverified
#18Pickle StewartAtlanta, GALB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 230 lbNew / unverified
#11Zach MarkerNorwalk, IAQB0.2 pts4% starter · 52% conf.6′2″ · 205 lbNew / unverified
#5DJ AlexanderDouglasville, GAQB0.2 pts4% starter · 28% conf.6′1″ · 210 lbNew / unverified
#23Trey WhirleySt. Petersburg, FLQB0.2 pts4% starter · 28% conf.5′11″ · 195 lbNew / unverified
#10Jayden FordMiami, FLRB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′6″ · 165 lbNew / unverified
#36Justin CompereCarol City, FLRB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′10″ · 195 lbNew / unverified
#30Noah SidanKey Biscayne, FLPK0.1 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′8″ · 165 lbNew / unverified
#49Conrad TolericoCoral Springs, FLP0.1 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 175 lbNew / unverified
#46Holden HarkinsFort Lauderdale, FLLS0.1 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′10″ · 190 lbNew / unverified
#86Rodrigo MarronMiami, FLLS0.1 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′8″ · 165 lbNew / unverified
2026 schedule
The path that shapes the projection.
The model prices every scheduled game individually. Home field, neutral sites, completed results and opponent rating feed the expected-win total shown above.
WeekOpponentSiteDate / result
1South FloridaNon-conference · Raymond James Stadium · 4M 19–34 · 20% win
AwaySep 57:00 PM EDT · model ↗2
BuffaloNon-conference · Pitbull Stadium · 4M 23–27 · 42% win
HomeSep 126:00 PM EDT · model ↗3
Florida AtlanticNon-conference · FAU Stadium · 4M 24–29 · 39% win
AwaySep 196:00 PM EDT · model ↗4
Long Island UniversityNon-conference · Pitbull Stadium · 4M 17–35 · 16% win
HomeSep 266:00 PM EDT · model ↗6New Mexico StateConference · Pitbull Stadium · 4M 23–28 · 39% win
HomeOct 77:30 PM EDT · model ↗7
Jacksonville StateConference · AmFirst Stadium · 4M 23–30 · 36% win
AwayOct 138:00 PM EDT · model ↗8
Middle TennesseeConference · Pitbull Stadium · 4M 25–28 · 41% win
HomeOct 207:00 PM EDT · model ↗9
LibertyConference · Williams Stadium (VA) · 4M 24–30 · 36% win
AwayOct 313:30 PM EDT · model ↗10
Missouri StateConference · Pitbull Stadium · 4M 26–27 · 48% win
HomeNov 74:00 PM EST · model ↗11
DelawareConference · Delaware Stadium · 4M 25–28 · 44% win
AwayNov 143:00 PM EST · model ↗12
Kennesaw StateConference · Fifth Third Stadium · 4M 24–29 · 40% win
AwayNov 213:00 PM EST · model ↗13
Sam HoustonConference · Pitbull Stadium · 4M 22–30 · 34% win
HomeNov 282:00 PM EST · model ↗
Range of outcomes
The projection is the middle—not the ceiling.
Floor case1 wins
Instability at premium positions turns swing games into losses.
4M midpoint0 wins
The roster performs close to its current power and schedule baseline.
Ceiling case2 wins
Quarterback play and line continuity outperform the preseason prior.
The betting lens
Price and matchup decide the play.
No team is an automatic bet or fade. The goal is to identify when the market's story about Florida International diverges from the football conditions required to cover.
The spread is large, the favorite plays slowly, and the game script allows Florida International to stay inside the number without chasing points.
The offense must play from behind, protect for long-yardage throws and generate explosives simply to reach the market expectation.
Quarterback efficiency, offensive-line cohesion and whether the defense can get off the field without blitzing itself out of structure.
Season-defining questionCan this team turn a manageable schedule into a real Conference USA title path?