The 2026 outlook
Can this team create enough explosive offense to separate in the reconfigured Mountain West?
Hawai'i opens No. 83 nationally and No. 3 of 10 in the Mountain West. The 4M baseline rates the roster 3.9 points below an average FBS team on a neutral field and projects 0 regular-season wins.
Hawai'i profiles as competitive but opponent-sensitive. It can win when the matchup protects its weak points, yet it does not have enough week-to-week talent separation to survive poor early-down offense, lost field position and a negative turnover margin at the same time.
Depth is the central concern. Transfers can raise the first unit quickly, but the two-deep has to hold up across twelve games. The first month should reveal whether the rebuild created real competition or simply moved uncertainty from one position group to another.
The schedule projects among the country's most manageable at No. 111. That creates upside in the win column, but also a pricing trap: the record can improve faster than the underlying team quality, inviting bettors to pay for results that came against limited resistance.
Personnel command center
Who is back, who arrived and who has to matter.
The roster is grouped by continuity because returning snaps and proven transfer production are more useful than raw headcount. “New / unverified” means the player did not match last season's roster or the incoming portal file—not that the player is necessarily a freshman.
Head coachTimmy Chang22–29 over the available CFBD career window
Staff continuityReturning head coachContinuity is treated as context, not an automatic upgrade.
Portal ledger16 in · 9 outImpact is weighted by rating, position and prior usage.
Position-group modelPremium roles separated.Fifty is FBS average. Quarterback includes the modeled starter probability, not merely the best name in the room.
4M player valueHighest-leverage rolesMaximum point value assumes the player is fully unavailable and is reduced by status probability.
PlayerPos.4M valueSizeContinuity
#3Carson BrownDes Moines, IAWR0.6 pts44% role · 64% conf.6′2″ · 200 lbTransfer infrom Iowa State
#11Devin AlvesMelbourne, FLWR0.6 pts42% role · 64% conf.6′3″ · 195 lbTransfer infrom Virginia Tech
#75Khalil WalkerCanton, OHOL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 300 lbTransfer infrom South Florida
#73Lipe MoalaRiverside, CAOL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′6″ · 345 lbTransfer infrom Oregon
#1DeVon RiceLas Vegas, NVRB0.5 pts54% role · 64% conf.5′9″ · 180 lbTransfer infrom Kansas State
#2Audric HarrisBellflower, CAWR0.5 pts42% role · 64% conf.6′1″ · 190 lbTransfer infrom Washington
#9Adam TomczykLong Beach, CADL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 255 lbTransfer infrom West Virginia
#95Geoffrey Speight Jr.Mcdonough, GADL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 280 lbTransfer infrom West Georgia
#99Ozzy PollardCarmel, INDL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 300 lbTransfer infrom Marian
#56Spencer ElliottBend, ORDL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 255 lbTransfer infrom Portland State
#7Tre' GriffithsKeller, TXWR0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 205 lbTransfer infrom Oklahoma State
#1Caleb BrownAnniston, ALDB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 170 lbTransfer infrom Virginia Tech
#0Jeremiah HughesLas Vegas, NVDB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 180 lbTransfer infrom Michigan State
#3Joenel FigueroaLawrence, MADB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 190 lbTransfer infrom West Georgia
#24Kodi DeCambraHonolulu, HIDB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 190 lbTransfer infrom UNLV
#10Bjorn JurgensenOrlando, FLQB0.2 pts4% starter · 40% conf.6′3″ · 200 lbTransfer infrom Virginia
#12Micah AlejadoLas Vegas, NVQB5.0 pts94% starter · 76% conf.5′10″ · 180 lbReturning
#5Pofele AshlockEuless, TXWR0.9 pts64% role · 64% conf.6′2″ · 180 lbReturning
#8Tama UiliataWaipahu, HIWR0.7 pts53% role · 64% conf.5′11″ · 195 lbReturning
#18Blaze KamokuKapolei, HIWR0.6 pts48% role · 64% conf.5′6″ · 185 lbReturning
#56Boogie HendersonLos Angeles, CAOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 310 lbReturning
#52Dean BriskiPago PagoOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 305 lbReturning
#51Eric McFallPago PagoOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 305 lbReturning
#57Ethan SpencerKailua, HIOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 300 lbReturning
#60Ezekiel SalanoaHonolulu, HIOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 290 lbReturning
#55Jay Tauala-HarrisLong Beach, CAOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 290 lbReturning
#54Jordan KernaghanEwa Beach, HIOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 285 lbReturning
#72Josh TavuiEwa Beach, HIOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 300 lbReturning
#79Judah KaioKaneohe, HIOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 305 lbReturning
#62Lautaimi ManumaEwa Beach, HIOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 300 lbReturning
#50Tu'i MutiLaie, HIOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 300 lbReturning
#77Uluaki TaukiuveaWest Valley City, UTOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 300 lbReturning
#17Nick DelgadilloWaianae, HIWR0.6 pts48% role · 64% conf.6′0″ · 190 lbReturning
#9Devon TauaefaHonolulu, HITE0.6 pts48% role · 64% conf.6′5″ · 230 lbReturning
#90Ha'aheo Dela CruzHonolulu, HIDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 260 lbReturning
#96Iosefa LetuliOceanside, CADL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 270 lbReturning
#97Jordan LynchCollege Station, TXDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 290 lbReturning
#91Josh SagapoluteleWaimanalo, HIDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 255 lbReturning
#10Ka'eo AkanaHonolulu, HIDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 245 lbReturning
#51Lesterlaisene LagafuainaNu'uuliDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 245 lbReturning
#52Luther McCoySaint Johns, FLDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 270 lbReturning
#26Nazaiah CaravalloEwa Beach, HIDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 235 lbReturning
#20Noah WilyLaie, HIDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 240 lbReturning
#92Waipehe WinchesterMililani, HIDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 265 lbReturning
#55Zoram PeteloSavaiiDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 270 lbReturning
#0Cam BarfieldLas Vegas, NVRB0.5 pts64% role · 76% conf.5′7″ · 190 lbReturning
#13Koa EldredgeHonolulu, HIWR0.5 pts46% role · 64% conf.6′0″ · 190 lbReturning
#4Jarvis HeimuliFort Worth, TXWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 200 lbReturning
#83Josiah FetuiHonolulu, HIWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 185 lbReturning
#6Kainoa CarvalhoLaie, HIWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′6″ · 165 lbReturning
#81Frank AbreuKula, HITE0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 235 lbReturning
#46Matthew BailiffKaysville, UTTE0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 235 lbReturning
#45Micah Kaonohi-KaihenuiWaimanalo, HITE0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 255 lbReturning
#85Oakie Salave'aLeoneTE0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 240 lbReturning
#13Elijah GipsonLos Angeles, CADB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 170 lbReturning
#4Elijah PalmerLas Vegas, NVDB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′8″ · 185 lbReturning
#22Ezekiel RodriguesKaneohe, HIDB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 195 lbReturning
#36Jordan FetuEwa Beach, HIDB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 175 lbReturning
#29Kainoa OntaiManteca, CADB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 180 lbReturning
#2Kona MooreKapolei, HIDB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 190 lbReturning
#21Makana MeyerWaipahu, HIDB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′9″ · 185 lbReturning
#25Matagi ThompsonHonolulu, HIDB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 190 lbReturning
#14Riis WeberKailua, HIDB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 200 lbReturning
#6Zion AllenStockton, CADB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 175 lbReturning
#31Aisiah PaogofieWaianae, HILB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 220 lbReturning
#43Alika Cavaco-AmoyWaimanalo, HILB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 215 lbReturning
#11Jamih OtisLas Vegas, NVLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 220 lbReturning
#7Julian SmithBakersfield, CALB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 210 lbReturning
#35Junior FiauiSan Jose, CALB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 215 lbReturning
#47Kingston CostalesWaianae, HILB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 210 lbReturning
#8Matteus IoaneWahiawa, HILB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 225 lbReturning
#49Tasi TadioWahiawa, HILB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 225 lbReturning
#12Wynden Ho'ohuliMililani, HILB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 240 lbReturning
#18Zaden MariteragiKahuku, HILB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 230 lbReturning
#26Sitani MikaeleHonolulu, HIRB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 230 lbReturning
#22Titan LacadenKapolei, HIRB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′6″ · 175 lbReturning
#98Sean Olvera-HarleSan Juan Capistrano, CAPK0.3 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 205 lbReturning
#33Jack MowreyCharlotte, NCLS0.3 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 235 lbReturning
#45Nick PangHonolulu, HILS0.3 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 220 lbReturning
#74Andrew PriceBoise, IDOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′5″ · 235 lbNew / unverified
#66Cooper TroyEdmonton, ABOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′5″ · 310 lbNew / unverified
#58Denaris DeRosa Jr.Redwood City, CAOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 285 lbNew / unverified
#53Kawika HallumsAiea, HIOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 295 lbNew / unverified
#65Vake HeheaMelbourne, VICOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 300 lbNew / unverified
#88Elijah WilliamsBirmingham, ALDL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 300 lbNew / unverified
#98Tonga PaeaAucklandDL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 315 lbNew / unverified
#86Brandon GaeaHonolulu, HIWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 190 lbNew / unverified
#19Diezel KamokuKapolei, HIWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′9″ · 185 lbNew / unverified
#84Dillon BoothRosamond, CAWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′9″ · 180 lbNew / unverified
#80Robert Haynes IVHouston, TXWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 175 lbNew / unverified
#88Anthony HickmanLas Vegas, NVTE0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 235 lbNew / unverified
#87Vainuupo FanuaeaNanakuli, HITE0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 275 lbNew / unverified
#30Avin HoustonSan Antonio, TXDB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 185 lbNew / unverified
#34Brayton CorreaHonolulu, HIDB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′10″ · 185 lbNew / unverified
#27Jahren AlturaHonolulu, HIDB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′10″ · 175 lbNew / unverified
#5Jaylon EdmondLong Beach, CADB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′10″ · 170 lbNew / unverified
#19Kela MooreKapolei, HIDB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 185 lbNew / unverified
#23Kydel StoneChicago, ILDB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 185 lbNew / unverified
#28Marquis RichardsonChandler, AZDB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 190 lbNew / unverified
#17Ben HudsonMiami, FLLB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 225 lbNew / unverified
#48Kolo KaululaauKaneohe, HILB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 215 lbNew / unverified
#39Zion VeaNanakuli, HILB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′10″ · 205 lbNew / unverified
#16Hazyn BotelhoKaneohe, HIQB0.2 pts4% starter · 28% conf.6′0″ · 170 lbNew / unverified
#14Isaac Jaramilla-PhePasadena, CAQB0.2 pts4% starter · 28% conf.6′1″ · 200 lbNew / unverified
#30James Steffany-FiameEwa Beach, HIRB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′8″ · 175 lbNew / unverified
#31Noah BartleyWaianae, HIRB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′9″ · 220 lbNew / unverified
#28TJ Fo'ilefutuPeoria, AZRB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 240 lbNew / unverified
#16Hudson BorsariLas Vegas, NVPK0.1 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′10″ · 175 lbNew / unverified
#43Gannon MillerBoise, IDP0.1 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 190 lbNew / unverified
#47Gehrig HeilPhoenix, AZP0.1 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 195 lbNew / unverified
2026 schedule
The path that shapes the projection.
The model prices every scheduled game individually. Home field, neutral sites, completed results and opponent rating feed the expected-win total shown above.
WeekOpponentSiteDate / result
1StanfordNon-conference · Stanford Stadium · 4M 24–26 · 45% win
AwayAug 297:00 PM EDT · model ↗1
UNLVConference · Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex · 4M 28–27 · 52% win
HomeSep 510:00 PM EDT · model ↗2
New Mexico StateNon-conference · Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex · 4M 21–30 · 29% win
HomeSep 1211:59 PM EDT · model ↗4
WyomingConference · War Memorial Stadium · 4M 26–24 · 55% win
AwaySep 263:00 PM EDT · model ↗5
San José StateConference · Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex · 4M 23–29 · 37% win
HomeOct 311:59 PM EDT · model ↗6
Arizona StateNon-conference · Mountain America Stadium · 4M 20–31 · 27% win
AwayOct 1012:00 AM EDT · model ↗7
New MexicoConference · Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex · 4M 26–26 · 50% win
HomeOct 1712:00 AM EDT · model ↗8
Northern IllinoisConference · Huskie Stadium · 4M 28–23 · 60% win
AwayOct 2412:00 AM EDT · model ↗10
UTEPConference · Sun Bowl · 4M 28–21 · 65% win
AwayNov 712:00 AM EST · model ↗11
North Dakota StateConference · Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex · 4M 23–29 · 36% win
HomeNov 1411:59 PM EST · model ↗12
NevadaConference · Mackay Stadium · 4M 27–24 · 56% win
AwayNov 2112:00 AM EST · model ↗13
Sacramento StateNon-conference · Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex · 4M 21–31 · 29% win
HomeNov 2811:00 PM EST · model ↗
Range of outcomes
The projection is the middle—not the ceiling.
Floor case1 wins
Instability at premium positions turns swing games into losses.
4M midpoint0 wins
The roster performs close to its current power and schedule baseline.
Ceiling case2 wins
Quarterback play and line continuity outperform the preseason prior.
The betting lens
Price and matchup decide the play.
No team is an automatic bet or fade. The goal is to identify when the market's story about Hawai'i diverges from the football conditions required to cover.
The spread is large, the favorite plays slowly, and the game script allows Hawai'i to stay inside the number without chasing points.
The offense must play from behind, protect for long-yardage throws and generate explosives simply to reach the market expectation.
Quarterback efficiency, offensive-line cohesion and whether the defense can get off the field without blitzing itself out of structure.
Season-defining questionCan this team create enough explosive offense to separate in the reconfigured Mountain West?