The 2026 outlook
How quickly will this roster establish itself inside the rebuilt Pac-12 hierarchy?
Utah State opens No. 87 nationally and No. 6 of 8 in the Pac-12. The 4M baseline rates the roster 4.4 points below an average FBS team on a neutral field and projects 4.2 regular-season wins.
Utah State profiles as competitive but opponent-sensitive. It can win when the matchup protects its weak points, yet it does not have enough week-to-week talent separation to survive poor early-down offense, lost field position and a negative turnover margin at the same time.
Depth is the central concern. Transfers can raise the first unit quickly, but the two-deep has to hold up across twelve games. The first month should reveal whether the rebuild created real competition or simply moved uncertainty from one position group to another.
The schedule grades No. 74 nationally—enough resistance to expose weaknesses without defining the entire year. A small group of swing games should determine whether Utah State beats its 4.2-win projection, placing extra value on special teams, fourth-down decisions and late-game quarterback play.
Personnel command center
Who is back, who arrived and who has to matter.
The roster is grouped by continuity because returning snaps and proven transfer production are more useful than raw headcount. “New / unverified” means the player did not match last season's roster or the incoming portal file—not that the player is necessarily a freshman.
Head coachBronco Mendenhall17–20 over the available CFBD career window
Staff continuityReturning head coachContinuity is treated as context, not an automatic upgrade.
Portal ledger29 in · 19 outImpact is weighted by rating, position and prior usage.
Position-group modelPremium roles separated.Fifty is FBS average. Quarterback includes the modeled starter probability, not merely the best name in the room.
4M player valueHighest-leverage rolesMaximum point value assumes the player is fully unavailable and is reduced by status probability.
PlayerPos.4M valueSizeContinuity
#16Bryson BarnesMilford, UTQB4.6 pts89% starter · 76% conf.6′2″ · 210 lbReturning
#7Kahanu DavisKapaa, HIWR0.7 pts50% role · 64% conf.5′10″ · 180 lbReturning
#87Broc LaneGilbert, AZTE0.7 pts53% role · 64% conf.6′4″ · 240 lbReturning
#67Adam PondLehi, UTOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 290 lbReturning
—Caysen WhittakerHighland, UTOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 310 lbReturning
#73Elia MigaoTemecula, CAOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 295 lbReturning
#72George MaileSouth Jordan, UTOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 295 lbReturning
—Jackson NelsonSalem, UTOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′7″ · 270 lbReturning
#56Jake EichornBeaver, UTOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 310 lbReturning
—Jared PeleAzle, TXOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 330 lbReturning
—Jared SmithAlpine, UTOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 275 lbReturning
#63Jarvis GriffithsAmerican Fork, UTOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 270 lbReturning
#55Jimmy ListonHinsdale, ILOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 300 lbReturning
#61K'leyone IosuaLehi, UTOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 300 lbReturning
#51Kauasi HansenHerriman, UTOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 300 lbReturning
—Sam BrousseauSalt Lake City, UTOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′8″ · 280 lbReturning
#65Tavo Motu'apuakaHonolulu, HIOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 330 lbReturning
#57Trey AndersenEagle Mountain, UTOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′6″ · 285 lbReturning
#44Bo MaileSouth Jordan, UTDT0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 270 lbReturning
—Bryan VoglEagle Mountain, UTDT0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 250 lbReturning
#28Carson TujagueCrozet, VADT0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 280 lbReturning
#59Cole KeeleMorgan, UTDT0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 300 lbReturning
#10Gabriel Iniguez Jr.Pixley, CADT0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 290 lbReturning
—Iverson ReportLayton, UTDT0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 270 lbReturning
—Joshua PapuPago PagoDT0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 290 lbReturning
#94Kone Aumua-UiagaleleiAuburn, WADT0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 310 lbReturning
#47Naki FahinaHawthorne, CADT0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 295 lbReturning
—Stockton PyneGallatin, TNDT0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 260 lbReturning
#9Tyree MorrisMechanicsburg, PADT0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 285 lbReturning
#8Javen JacobsChandler, AZRB0.6 pts64% role · 76% conf.5′10″ · 190 lbReturning
#17Cade BakerHighland, UTWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 185 lbReturning
—Carlos Orr-GillespieEtowah, TNWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 195 lbReturning
#6Demick StarlingNashville, TNWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 190 lbReturning
—Jackson OlsenMillville, UTWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 190 lbReturning
#81Nikko BoncorePeoria, AZWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 175 lbReturning
#15Ty OlsenSan Diego, CAWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 195 lbReturning
—Alex FaiivaePago PagoTE0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 205 lbReturning
#19Chase TuatagaloaOrem, UTTE0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 245 lbReturning
—Kyle LivelyRiverton, UTTE0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 220 lbReturning
#83Josh SterzerSalt Lake City, UTTE0.5 pts48% role · 64% conf.6′3″ · 230 lbReturning
—Abe JagerLehi, UTCB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 170 lbReturning
#11Bryson TaylorHoschton, GACB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 190 lbReturning
#15D'Angelo MayesSyracuse, UTCB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 180 lbReturning
#34Dylan TuckerCharlotte, NCCB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 200 lbReturning
#30Jack HadfieldLehi, UTCB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 175 lbReturning
#38John ShepardOak Park, ILCB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 205 lbReturning
#12Bobby ArnoldNewark, DES0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′9″ · 180 lbReturning
—Breaker MendenhallCrozet, VAS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 200 lbReturning
#4Brevin HamblinSyracuse, UTS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 200 lbReturning
#32Charger DotySouth Jordan, UTS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 200 lbReturning
#27Chika EbunohaTucson, AZS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 185 lbReturning
#26D'Andre BarnesAurora, COS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 200 lbReturning
#29Gio KafentzisPuyallup, WAS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 190 lbReturning
—Ike LarsenSmithfield, UTS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 195 lbReturning
—Jonathan BairdSpokane, WAS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 220 lbReturning
#19Lava VailahiSalt Lake City, UTS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 165 lbReturning
#18Kache KaioLaie, HITE0.5 pts47% role · 64% conf.6′3″ · 240 lbReturning
#99Beau McGivenSt. George, UTLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 185 lbReturning
#27Blake BarnesMilford, UTLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 180 lbReturning
#14Bronson Olevao Jr.Salt Lake City, UTLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 215 lbReturning
#25Chris JoeBrentwood, CALB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 215 lbReturning
#31Dakota HowellCrozet, VALB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 220 lbReturning
—Diego GrateronSouth Jordan, UTLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 190 lbReturning
#0Enoka MigaoTemecula, CALB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 265 lbReturning
#20John MillerTualatin, ORLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 225 lbReturning
#33Luke DurfeySalt Lake City, UTLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 230 lbReturning
#17Mataira BrownPleasant Grove, UTLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 230 lbReturning
#42Nu'uletau SellesinWoods Cross, UTLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 275 lbReturning
#95Paxton NaegleDraper, UTLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 250 lbReturning
—Ryker LotuleleiSalt Lake City, UTLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 235 lbReturning
—Sampson AlofipoHenderson, NVLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 190 lbReturning
—Tanner JolleyFruita, COLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 240 lbReturning
#55Tevita TuhaSalt Lake City, UTLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 265 lbReturning
#40Zion AndreasenSalt Lake City, UTLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 230 lbReturning
#23Noah WhiteMillville, UTRB0.4 pts49% role · 64% conf.5′9″ · 190 lbReturning
—Clyde TaulapapaKahuku, HIRB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 210 lbReturning
#28Nehemiah WashingtonFederal Way, WARB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 220 lbReturning
#25Ravian LarryIdabel, OKRB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 195 lbReturning
—Tre KofeIdaho Falls, IDRB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′9″ · 205 lbReturning
#3Jacob ConoverChandler, AZQB0.3 pts6% starter · 64% conf.6′1″ · 195 lbReturning
#21Carter BrownPearland, TXPK0.3 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 195 lbReturning
#37Dylan SpragueLaguna Beach, CAP0.3 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 185 lbReturning
#16Landon RehkowVeradale, WAP0.3 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 175 lbReturning
#13Hyrum HatchBuffalo, WYLS0.3 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 200 lbReturning
#43Owen EdwardsWashougal, WALS0.3 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 195 lbReturning
#14Tanner RinkerCastle Rock, COPK0.3 pts44% role · 52% conf.6′2″ · 190 lbReturning
#10Anthony GarciaSacramento, CAQB0.2 pts4% starter · 64% conf.6′1″ · 190 lbReturning
#12CJ TillerGilbert, AZQB0.2 pts4% starter · 40% conf.6′2″ · 200 lbReturning
—Kaden CoxMillville, UTQB0.2 pts4% starter · 40% conf.6′0″ · 190 lbReturning
2026 schedule
The path that shapes the projection.
The model prices every scheduled game individually. Home field, neutral sites, completed results and opponent rating feed the expected-win total shown above.
WeekOpponentSiteDate / result
1Idaho StateNon-conference · Maverik Stadium · 4M 21–32 · 72% win
HomeSep 57:00 PM EDT · model ↗2WashingtonNon-conference · Husky Stadium · 4M 18–34 · 19% win
AwaySep 123:30 PM EDT · model ↗3
UtahNon-conference · Rice-Eccles Stadium · 4M 19–35 · 18% win
AwaySep 193:30 PM EDT · model ↗4
TroyNon-conference · Maverik Stadium · 4M 23–28 · 63% win
HomeSep 267:30 PM EDT · model ↗5
Boise StateConference · Albertsons Stadium · 4M 22–29 · 34% win
AwayOct 37:30 PM EDT · model ↗6
Washington StateConference · Maverik Stadium · 4M 27–24 · 43% win
HomeOct 99:00 PM EDT · model ↗8
Texas StateConference · Bobcat Stadium (TX) · 4M 24–31 · 36% win
AwayOct 247:30 PM EDT · model ↗9
Colorado StateConference · Maverik Stadium · 4M 23–30 · 64% win
HomeOct 313:30 PM EDT · model ↗10
Fresno StateConference · Maverik Stadium · 4M 25–26 · 54% win
HomeNov 79:30 PM EST · model ↗11
San Diego StateConference · Snapdragon Stadium · 4M 21–29 · 32% win
AwayNov 149:30 PM EST · model ↗12
Oregon StateConference · Reser Stadium · 4M 27–25 · 53% win
AwayNov 2110:30 PM EST · model ↗
Range of outcomes
The projection is the middle—not the ceiling.
Floor case2 wins
Instability at premium positions turns swing games into losses.
4M midpoint4 wins
The roster performs close to its current power and schedule baseline.
Ceiling case6 wins
Quarterback play and line continuity outperform the preseason prior.
The betting lens
Price and matchup decide the play.
No team is an automatic bet or fade. The goal is to identify when the market's story about Utah State diverges from the football conditions required to cover.
The spread is large, the favorite plays slowly, and the game script allows Utah State to stay inside the number without chasing points.
The offense must play from behind, protect for long-yardage throws and generate explosives simply to reach the market expectation.
Quarterback efficiency, offensive-line cohesion and whether the defense can get off the field without blitzing itself out of structure.
Season-defining questionHow quickly will this roster establish itself inside the rebuilt Pac-12 hierarchy?