Stanford 2026 Preview — No. 92 in the 4M 138

The 2026 outlook

Is there enough week-to-week consistency to turn ACC opportunity into a conference-title run?

Stanford opens No. 91 nationally and No. 15 of 17 in the ACC. The 4M baseline rates the roster 5.3 points below an average FBS team on a neutral field and projects 2.9 regular-season wins.

Stanford profiles as competitive but opponent-sensitive. It can win when the matchup protects its weak points, yet it does not have enough week-to-week talent separation to survive poor early-down offense, lost field position and a negative turnover margin at the same time.

Depth is the central concern. Transfers can raise the first unit quickly, but the two-deep has to hold up across twelve games. The first month should reveal whether the rebuild created real competition or simply moved uncertainty from one position group to another.

The schedule grades No. 25 nationally—enough resistance to expose weaknesses without defining the entire year. A small group of swing games should determine whether Stanford beats its 2.9-win projection, placing extra value on special teams, fourth-down decisions and late-game quarterback play.

Personnel command center

Who is back, who arrived and who has to matter.

The roster is grouped by continuity because returning snaps and proven transfer production are more useful than raw headcount. “New / unverified” means the player did not match last season's roster or the incoming portal file—not that the player is necessarily a freshman.

Head coachTavita Pritchard0–0 over the available CFBD career window

Staff continuityNew head coachReplaces Frank Reich

Portal ledger6 in · 12 outImpact is weighted by rating, position and prior usage.

Position-group modelPremium roles separated.Fifty is FBS average. Quarterback includes the modeled starter probability, not merely the best name in the room.

Quarterback16

Offensive line51

Receivers54

Defensive front52

Secondary50

InNico BrownWR · from Yale · 3★

InLeroy BryantCB · from Washington · 3★

InDavis WarrenQB · from Michigan · 3★

InDara AdeyemiOT · from Bucknell · 3★

InAidan KilstromIOL · from Harvard · 3★

InCarter ShawWR · from UCLA · 3★

OutChe OjarikreS · to Duke · 3★

OutEmeka UgorjiOT · to Florida · 3★

OutZak YamauchiIOL · to BYU · 3★

OutCole TabbRB · to Cincinnati · 3★

OutElijah BrownQB · to Washington · 3★

OutJack LeyrerOT · to Auburn · 3★

4M player valueHighest-leverage rolesMaximum point value assumes the player is fully unavailable and is reduced by status probability.

QBCharlie Mirer1.5 pts34% starter · roster continuity + QB starter probability

QBDylan Rizk1.5 pts34% starter · roster continuity + QB starter probability

QBDavis Warren0.9 pts21% starter · portal role + QB starter probability

WRNico Brown0.8 pts58% expected role · usage + PPA + portal role

RBMicah Ford0.8 pts88% expected role · usage + PPA + WEPA + roster continuity

WRCaden High0.7 pts55% expected role · usage + PPA + roster continuity

Find a player

PlayerPos.4M valueSizeContinuity

#8Davis WarrenManhattan Beach, CAQB0.9 pts21% starter · 40% conf.6′2″ · 195 lbTransfer infrom Michigan

#23Nico BrownHuntington Beach, CAWR0.8 pts58% role · 64% conf.6′0″ · 185 lbTransfer infrom Yale

#52Aidan KilstromBettendorf, IAOL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 300 lbTransfer infrom Harvard

#72Dara AdeyemiLutonOL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′8″ · 300 lbTransfer infrom Bucknell

#15Carter ShawAtherton, CAWR0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 195 lbTransfer infrom UCLA

#4Leroy BryantFairfield, CACB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 185 lbTransfer infrom Washington

#17Charlie MirerRancho Santa Fe, CAQB1.5 pts34% starter · 40% conf.6′6″ · 235 lbReturning

#10Dylan RizkDelray Beach, FLQB1.5 pts34% starter · 40% conf.6′2″ · 225 lbReturning

#20Micah FordToms River, NJRB0.8 pts88% role · 76% conf.6′0″ · 220 lbReturning

#0Caden HighAtlanta, GAWR0.7 pts55% role · 64% conf.5′10″ · 165 lbReturning

#3Marcus BrownHuntington Beach, CAWR0.7 pts49% role · 64% conf.5′10″ · 170 lbReturning

#88Benji BlackburnMiami, FLTE0.7 pts47% role · 64% conf.6′6″ · 260 lbReturning

#84Chico HoltHouston, TXTE0.6 pts46% role · 64% conf.6′5″ · 255 lbReturning

#62Josh WilliamsRadnor, PAOT0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 300 lbReturning

#63Carson CaplanColorado Springs, COOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 305 lbReturning

#59Charlie HoitinkSlinger, WIOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 300 lbReturning

#73Charlie SymondsSouth Kent, CTOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′8″ · 310 lbReturning

#74Fisher AndersonFranklin, TNOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′7″ · 315 lbReturning

#56Hayden GunterDenton, TXOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′7″ · 300 lbReturning

#58Kahlil HouseWarner Robins, GAOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 305 lbReturning

#79Kai GreerCharlotte, NCOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′6″ · 295 lbReturning

#53Nathan MejiaArcadia, CAOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 305 lbReturning

#60Nick FattigLeague City, TXOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 300 lbReturning

#66Niki ProngosNovato, CAOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′7″ · 315 lbReturning

#55Simione PaleElk Grove, CAOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 320 lbReturning

#51Ziron BrownWaveland, MSOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 310 lbReturning

#95Adam ShovlinWilkes-barre, PADE0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 270 lbReturning

#57Kole BriehlerPennington, NJDT0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 280 lbReturning

#99Benedict UmehToronto, ONDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 280 lbReturning

#75Braden Marceau-OlayinkaMelrose, MADL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 300 lbReturning

#58Brendan DelaneyMontreal, PQDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 275 lbReturning

#96Connor BachhuberSan Clemente, CADL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 275 lbReturning

#42Jacobi MurrayConyers, GADL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 315 lbReturning

#55Joe AsiainEdison, NJDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 275 lbReturning

#45Omar StaplesOakland, CADL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 270 lbReturning

#97Zach RowellSan Diego, CADL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 285 lbReturning

#4Jordan OnovughePomona, CAWR0.6 pts46% role · 64% conf.6′2″ · 210 lbReturning

#19David PantelisPittsburgh, PAWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 200 lbReturning

#11JonAnthony HallFishers, INWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 190 lbReturning

#13Liam ThorpeNew York, NYWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 195 lbReturning

#86Owen van Loben SelsMenlo Park, CAWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 205 lbReturning

#82Tyler KuoAustin, TXWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 205 lbReturning

#87Aiden BlackDingmans Ferry, PATE0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 240 lbReturning

#83Reiman ZebertSpringfield, NETE0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′6″ · 230 lbReturning

#85Zach GiulianoCorona Del Mar, CATE0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′6″ · 245 lbReturning

#31Aaron MorrisLowell, MACB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 195 lbReturning

#9Brandon NicholsonMemphis, TNCB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 190 lbReturning

#27Breylan ThompsonMissouri City, TXCB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 190 lbReturning

#8Cam RichardsonIrvington, NJCB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 190 lbReturning

#26Chris GarlandBuford, GACB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 180 lbReturning

#34Javion RandallRichmond, VACB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 190 lbReturning

#28Sam Neely IIICharlotte, NCCB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 185 lbReturning

#39Charlie EckhardtCentennial, COS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 205 lbReturning

#6Darrius DavisMetairie, LAS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 200 lbReturning

#15Donte UtuManoa, HIS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 180 lbReturning

#5Jay GreenHouston, TXS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 215 lbReturning

#3Jaylen'Dai SumlinCastaic, CAS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 200 lbReturning

#17Omari GainesNewark, NJS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 200 lbReturning

#21Scotty EdwardsHolladay, UTS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 205 lbReturning

#24Lonnie McAllister IIIUpper Marlboro, MDDB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 180 lbReturning

#25Bo TateSalt Lake City, UTLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 220 lbReturning

#46Carter DavisEagle, IDLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 225 lbReturning

#48Drew CunninghamOrinda, CALB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 245 lbReturning

#2Dylan StephensonMiami, FLLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 235 lbReturning

#44Ernest CooperArlington, TXLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 250 lbReturning

#49Gabe KaminskiRiverside, ILLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 235 lbReturning

#90Gavin GewenigerScottsdale, AZLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 240 lbReturning

#0Jahsiah GalvanWest Liberty, IALB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 230 lbReturning

#43Landon McComberLas Vegas, NVLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 235 lbReturning

#35Matt RoseBrecksville, OHLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 230 lbReturning

#40Mickey VaccarelloPittsburgh, PALB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 230 lbReturning

#54Preston JerneganAltadena, CALB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 230 lbReturning

#10Sam MattinglyMagnolia, TXLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 235 lbReturning

#11Tevarua TafitiWaipahu, HILB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 240 lbReturning

#36Tre WilliamsFarmers Branch, TXLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 235 lbReturning

#38Zach JohnsonCoeur d'Alene, IDLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 230 lbReturning

#6Tuna AltahirKennewick, WARB0.4 pts53% role · 64% conf.6′0″ · 230 lbReturning

#26Sedrick IrvinMiami, FLRB0.4 pts54% role · 76% conf.5′10″ · 205 lbReturning

#34Champ HamptonOoltewah, TNRB0.4 pts51% role · 64% conf.5′10″ · 220 lbReturning

#5Chris Davis Jr.Picayune, MSRB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 195 lbReturning

#92AJ SeidlerAppleton, WIPK0.3 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 225 lbReturning

#19London BironasNashville, TNPK0.3 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 205 lbReturning

#37Aidan FlintoftPacific Palisades, CAP0.3 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 210 lbReturning

#47Alejandro ChavezWest Covina, CALS0.3 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 225 lbReturning

#93Peyton WarfordMountain View, CALS0.3 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 225 lbReturning

#13Emmet KenneyFargo, NDPK0.3 pts44% role · 52% conf.6′3″ · 220 lbReturning

#70Blaise ThomassieBaton Rouge, LAOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 290 lbNew / unverified

#50Cash BallardWestfield, INOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 280 lbNew / unverified

#65Jay MillerGoodyear, AZOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 320 lbNew / unverified

#94Daniel OgiozeeDallas, TXDL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 250 lbNew / unverified

#98Max MeierPacific Palisades, CADL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 255 lbNew / unverified

#27Devin MignerySarasota, FLQB0.2 pts5% starter · 28% conf.5′10″ · 215 lbNew / unverified

#9Mike Mitchell Jr.San Francisco, CAQB0.2 pts5% starter · 28% conf.5′11″ · 185 lbNew / unverified

#89Atticus JosephSnellville, GAWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 170 lbNew / unverified

#22Daylen SharperPhoenix, AZWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 210 lbNew / unverified

#14Dre PollardLas Vegas, NVWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 180 lbNew / unverified

#80Jacob ButlerBaldwin, NYWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′9″ · 170 lbNew / unverified

#18Langdon HoraceStockton, CAWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′11″ · 180 lbNew / unverified

#2Zion RobinsonMansfield, TXWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 180 lbNew / unverified

#81Marcus MonroeCary, NCTE0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 220 lbNew / unverified

#30Jack DuckworthRockwall, TXCB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′10″ · 170 lbNew / unverified

#18Jason Hill Jr.Folsom, CACB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′11″ · 160 lbNew / unverified

#20Xavier HarmonHumble, TXCB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 185 lbNew / unverified

#29Caleb CarsonAtlanta, GADB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′11″ · 190 lbNew / unverified

#33Lasiah JacksonLeesburg, GADB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 175 lbNew / unverified

#22Zaiden McDonaldNewark, NJDB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 195 lbNew / unverified

#32Chase CahoonLos Gatos, CALB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 215 lbNew / unverified

#88Keysaun EleazerRaleigh, NCLB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′6″ · 205 lbNew / unverified

#41Lucas ShanafeltMcmurray, PALB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 235 lbNew / unverified

#52Sarrel HowardLos Angeles, CALB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 230 lbNew / unverified

#23Wassie LugolobiSeattle, WALB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 225 lbNew / unverified

#46Hamilton SharpeThe Woodlands, TXLS0.1 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 215 lbNew / unverified

2026 schedule

The path that shapes the projection.

The model prices every scheduled game individually. Home field, neutral sites, completed results and opponent rating feed the expected-win total shown above.

WeekOpponentSiteDate / result

Hawai'iNon-conference · Stanford Stadium · 4M 24–26 · 55% win

HomeAug 297:00 PM EDT · model ↗1

MiamiConference · Stanford Stadium · 4M 33–17 · 18% win

HomeSep 49:00 PM EDT · model ↗3

DukeConference · Wallace Wade Stadium · 4M 22–31 · 32% win

AwaySep 194:00 PM EDT · model ↗4

Georgia TechConference · Stanford Stadium · 4M 28–24 · 40% win

HomeSep 2610:30 PM EDT · model ↗5

Wake ForestConference · Allegacy Federal Credit Union Stadium · 4M 19–29 · 30% win

AwayOct 312:00 AM EDT · model ↗6

Notre DameNon-conference · Notre Dame Stadium · 4M 13–38 · 8% win

AwayOct 103:30 PM EDT · model ↗7

ElonNon-conference · Stanford Stadium · 4M 16–35 · 85% win

HomeOct 177:30 PM EDT · model ↗8

NC StateConference · Stanford Stadium · 4M 29–23 · 37% win

HomeOct 2310:30 PM EDT · model ↗9

LouisvilleConference · L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium · 4M 17–32 · 19% win

AwayOct 3112:00 AM EDT · model ↗11

Virginia TechConference · Lane Stadium · 4M 22–30 · 33% win

AwayNov 1412:00 AM EST · model ↗12

CaliforniaConference · California Memorial Stadium · 4M 22–28 · 37% win

AwayNov 2112:00 AM EST · model ↗13

SMUConference · Stanford Stadium · 4M 30–21 · 30% win

HomeNov 2812:00 AM EST · model ↗

Range of outcomes

The projection is the middle—not the ceiling.

Floor case1 wins

Instability at premium positions turns swing games into losses.

4M midpoint3 wins

The roster performs close to its current power and schedule baseline.

Ceiling case5 wins

Quarterback play and line continuity outperform the preseason prior.

The betting lens

Price and matchup decide the play.

No team is an automatic bet or fade. The goal is to identify when the market's story about Stanford diverges from the football conditions required to cover.

Back them when

The spread is large, the favorite plays slowly, and the game script allows Stanford to stay inside the number without chasing points.

Pass or fade when

The offense must play from behind, protect for long-yardage throws and generate explosives simply to reach the market expectation.

Watch first

Quarterback efficiency, offensive-line cohesion and whether the defense can get off the field without blitzing itself out of structure.

Season-defining questionIs there enough week-to-week consistency to turn ACC opportunity into a conference-title run?