The 2026 outlook
Can this team turn a manageable schedule into a real Conference USA title path?
Kennesaw State opens No. 105 nationally and No. 4 of 10 in the CUSA. The 4M baseline rates the roster 8.9 points below an average FBS team on a neutral field and projects 4.9 regular-season wins.
Kennesaw State begins below the FBS average, so progress should first appear in functional line play, fewer negative snaps and cleaner late-game execution. That does not make this team an automatic fade; large spreads become valuable when the favorite lacks the pace or explosiveness to create margin.
Depth is the central concern. Transfers can raise the first unit quickly, but the two-deep has to hold up across twelve games. The first month should reveal whether the rebuild created real competition or simply moved uncertainty from one position group to another.
The schedule projects among the country's most manageable at No. 123. That creates upside in the win column, but also a pricing trap: the record can improve faster than the underlying team quality, inviting bettors to pay for results that came against limited resistance.
Personnel command center
Who is back, who arrived and who has to matter.
The roster is grouped by continuity because returning snaps and proven transfer production are more useful than raw headcount. “New / unverified” means the player did not match last season's roster or the incoming portal file—not that the player is necessarily a freshman.
Head coachJerry Mack10–4 over the available CFBD career window
Staff continuityReturning head coachContinuity is treated as context, not an automatic upgrade.
Portal ledger29 in · 19 outImpact is weighted by rating, position and prior usage.
Position-group modelPremium roles separated.Fifty is FBS average. Quarterback includes the modeled starter probability, not merely the best name in the room.
4M player valueHighest-leverage rolesMaximum point value assumes the player is fully unavailable and is reduced by status probability.
PlayerPos.4M valueSizeContinuity
#1Rickie CollinsBaton Rouge, LAQB4.4 pts94% starter · 76% conf.6′2″ · 222 lbTransfer infrom Syracuse
#11Brayden MunroeParker, COWR0.8 pts54% role · 64% conf.6′3″ · 201 lbTransfer infrom Northern Colorado
#6Latrelle MurrellDouglasville, GARB0.8 pts79% role · 64% conf.5′11″ · 215 lbTransfer infrom West Georgia
#8Devaughn SlaughterIndianapolis, INWR0.7 pts62% role · 64% conf.6′1″ · 187 lbTransfer infrom Tennessee State
#4Zion BookerCharlotte, NCWR0.6 pts55% role · 64% conf.5′10″ · 186 lbTransfer infrom Tulsa
#13Dylan GarySuwanee, GAWR0.6 pts40% role · 64% conf.6′3″ · 215 lbTransfer infrom Georgia Southern
#62Darius NealsEllenwood, GAOL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 339 lbTransfer infrom Tennessee State
#66Luke DuskaPhiladelphia, PAOL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 325 lbTransfer infrom Elon
#55Mateo GuevaraFlowery Branch, GAOL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 317 lbTransfer infrom Middle Tennessee
#75Precious EkehElmont, NYOL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 325 lbTransfer infrom Central Connecticut
#15Devin MorganUpper Marlboro, MDDL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 283 lbTransfer infrom Buffalo
#97Jaiden CrawfordStockton, CADL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 315 lbTransfer infrom Arkansas-Pine Bluff
#0Keon DavisAtlanta, GAWR0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 185 lbTransfer infrom Virginia Union
#13Cam MillerMemphis, TNDB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 215 lbTransfer infrom Memphis
#21Ja'Lyen JudsonOxford, MSDB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 170 lbTransfer infrom UAB
#3Jecari BrysonRock Hill, SCDB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 220 lbTransfer infrom Gardner-Webb
#14Kaleb GrayGalveston, TXDB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 183 lbTransfer infrom West Virginia
#7Luke EvansCoral Springs, FLDB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 188 lbTransfer infrom Miami (OH)
#19Maliki WrightOrlando, FLDB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 195 lbTransfer infrom Duke
#0Perry FisherTallahassee, FLDB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 202 lbTransfer infrom UAB
#2Tony Williams Jr.Miami, FLDB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 200 lbTransfer infrom UCF
#16Alfred ThomasOrlando, FLLB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 230 lbTransfer infrom Towson
#8Corey KellyHouston, TXLB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 238 lbTransfer infrom Baylor
#18Josh AnglinBuford, GALB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 220 lbTransfer infrom Tulsa
#31Kai RussellCharlotte, NCLB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 256 lbTransfer infrom Wingate
#21Triston MorganAtlanta, GARB0.3 pts38% role · 40% conf.5′9″ · 190 lbTransfer infrom Benedict
#34Matt McKenzieSydney, NSWP0.3 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 219 lbTransfer infrom Arizona State
#45Brock WaltersKailua Kona, HILS0.3 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 253 lbTransfer infrom Marshall
#15Javon RogersMontevallo, ALWR0.7 pts49% role · 64% conf.6′0″ · 170 lbReturning
#7Navelle DeanColumbus, GAWR0.6 pts46% role · 64% conf.6′0″ · 200 lbReturning
#17Gerard Bullock Jr.Nashville, TNTE0.6 pts50% role · 64% conf.6′1″ · 230 lbReturning
#69Chase StevensVero Beach, FLOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 318 lbReturning
#54Eseosa AigbokhaeMcdonough, GAOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 312 lbReturning
#72Haston CrawfordTuscaloosa, ALOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′6″ · 287 lbReturning
#52Havik PettigrewAcworth, GAOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 286 lbReturning
#56JaDarious LeeNashville, TNOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 302 lbReturning
#59Jamiel WilliamsRome, GAOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 286 lbReturning
#76Nikola MilovacIndijaOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′6″ · 317 lbReturning
#71ZaMario WoodgettSmyrna, GAOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 301 lbReturning
#22Preston ClemmerAlpharetta, GADB0.6 pts47% role · 64% conf.6′1″ · 200 lbReturning
#9Davis BrysonWoodbridge, VAWR0.6 pts50% role · 64% conf.5′9″ · 190 lbReturning
#53AJ MillerRock Hill, SCDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 273 lbReturning
#92Jackson CooperTuscaloosa, ALDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 310 lbReturning
#96Jaiden GrimesMarietta, GADL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 290 lbReturning
#6Marcus PattersonCrestview, FLDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 264 lbReturning
#79Marlo East Jr.Tennille, GADL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 274 lbReturning
#99Nasir SmithLawrenceville, GADL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 272 lbReturning
#55Ugonna NwohaAustell, GADL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 260 lbReturning
#81Erik RonningSuwanee, GAWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 187 lbReturning
#80Josh WilliamsonSnellville, GAWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′7″ · 158 lbReturning
#85Kayden MillerAtlanta, GAWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 190 lbReturning
#88Jamari HarroldMilwaukee, WITE0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 234 lbReturning
#4Alexander FordAntioch, TNDB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 190 lbReturning
#35Brody BondPowder Springs, GADB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 188 lbReturning
#10Ethan TookesJacksonville, FLDB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 197 lbReturning
#9Isaac PaulPanama City, FLDB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 175 lbReturning
#32Jaden Martin-BurgessMiami, FLDB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 198 lbReturning
#12Kody JonesMemphis, TNDB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 195 lbReturning
#5Tay'vion LawsonJacksonville, FLDB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 199 lbReturning
#20Tyler HallumMarietta, GADB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 187 lbReturning
#44Baron HopsonLeesburg, GALB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 222 lbReturning
#41Byron JacksonTallahassee, FLLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 245 lbReturning
#1Donovan WestmorelandGriffin, GALB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 234 lbReturning
#28Karson MossOpelika, ALLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 215 lbReturning
#36Taiwo OgundeleCanton, GALB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 211 lbReturning
#11Tywon ChristopherThomasville, GALB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 221 lbReturning
#26Devin IngramStone Mountain, GARB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′8″ · 188 lbReturning
#25Joshua TroupeRichmond Hill, GARB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 223 lbReturning
#23Jonathan MathisNorcross, GARB0.3 pts46% role · 64% conf.6′0″ · 205 lbReturning
#43Ben BlantonCumming, GALS0.3 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 215 lbReturning
#89Daniel KinneyKnoxville, TNPK0.3 pts44% role · 52% conf.5′11″ · 211 lbReturning
#3Skyler WilliamsWarner Robins, GAQB0.2 pts4% starter · 40% conf.6′1″ · 233 lbReturning
#50Anthony Cater Jr.Powder Springs, GAOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 292 lbNew / unverified
#70Chase RichardsonBrunswick, GAOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 305 lbNew / unverified
#58Daniel CepickyCulleoka, TNOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′6″ · 310 lbNew / unverified
#77Enrico MaghelliCancunOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′5″ · 300 lbNew / unverified
#51Mike Wallace Jr.Tupelo, MSOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 323 lbNew / unverified
#95Connor CoxwellSuwanee, GADL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′5″ · 245 lbNew / unverified
#90Jonathan KeysLaurel, MSDL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 285 lbNew / unverified
#58Khary BelerLaveen, AZDL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 290 lbNew / unverified
#65Nick ThornerMarietta, GADL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 260 lbNew / unverified
#91Zakir Abdul-SalaamPowder Springs, GADL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 246 lbNew / unverified
#12Jet TabbHoover, ALWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 200 lbNew / unverified
#87Chase TatumCartersville, GATE0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 264 lbNew / unverified
#82Darren PinkardJefferson, GATE0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 230 lbNew / unverified
#19Reed JesiolowskiBrandon, MSTE0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 223 lbNew / unverified
#27CJ Outland IIIStockbridge, GADB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 195 lbNew / unverified
#17Jordan HolmesPike Road, ALDB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′10″ · 175 lbNew / unverified
#29Phillip CatoGrosse Pointe Farms, MIDB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′9″ · 175 lbNew / unverified
#40Amarion JonesAtlanta, GALB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 225 lbNew / unverified
#47Charlie RobinsonMonroe, LALB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 250 lbNew / unverified
#46Jeremy Greaves Jr.Clewiston, FLLB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 245 lbNew / unverified
#33Montra SanfordCharleston, MSLB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 260 lbNew / unverified
#42Omari StephensonBoston, GALB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 210 lbNew / unverified
#56Zay WilsonJonesboro, ARLB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 230 lbNew / unverified
#5Jamarcus HarrisonGainesville, GAQB0.2 pts4% starter · 28% conf.6′3″ · 202 lbNew / unverified
#2Landon VarnesBrandon, MSQB0.2 pts4% starter · 28% conf.6′0″ · 197 lbNew / unverified
#24Boogie Woods IIIJacksonville, FLRB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′10″ · 197 lbNew / unverified
#20Celley DavisMemphis, TNRB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 196 lbNew / unverified
2026 schedule
The path that shapes the projection.
The model prices every scheduled game individually. Home field, neutral sites, completed results and opponent rating feed the expected-win total shown above.
WeekOpponentSiteDate / result
1West GeorgiaNon-conference · Fifth Third Stadium · 4M 21–32 · 73% win
HomeSep 37:00 PM EDT · model ↗2Georgia StateNon-conference · Fifth Third Stadium · 4M 23–31 · 66% win
HomeSep 127:00 PM EDT · model ↗3
TennesseeNon-conference · Neyland Stadium · 4M 18–37 · 14% win
AwaySep 197:45 PM EDT · model ↗4
Arkansas StateNon-conference · Centennial Bank Stadium · 4M 26–26 · 49% win
AwaySep 267:00 PM EDT · model ↗6
Jacksonville StateConference · Fifth Third Stadium · 4M 27–27 · 50% win
HomeOct 77:00 PM EDT · model ↗7
Missouri StateConference · Plaster Sports Complex · 4M 27–27 · 49% win
AwayOct 147:30 PM EDT · model ↗8
LibertyConference · Fifth Third Stadium · 4M 28–27 · 48% win
HomeOct 227:00 PM EDT · model ↗9
Middle TennesseeConference · Johnny "Red" Floyd Stadium · 4M 28–26 · 54% win
AwayOct 287:00 PM EDT · model ↗10
DelawareConference · Fifth Third Stadium · 4M 25–29 · 58% win
HomeNov 73:00 PM EST · model ↗11
Sam HoustonConference · Elliott T. Bowers Stadium · 4M 29–24 · 62% win
AwayNov 142:00 PM EST · model ↗12
Florida InternationalConference · Fifth Third Stadium · 4M 24–29 · 60% win
HomeNov 213:00 PM EST · model ↗13Western KentuckyConference · Houchens Industries-L.T. Smith Stadium · 4M 23–29 · 38% win
AwayNov 281:00 PM EST · model ↗
Range of outcomes
The projection is the middle—not the ceiling.
Floor case3 wins
Instability at premium positions turns swing games into losses.
4M midpoint5 wins
The roster performs close to its current power and schedule baseline.
Ceiling case7 wins
Quarterback play and line continuity outperform the preseason prior.
The betting lens
Price and matchup decide the play.
No team is an automatic bet or fade. The goal is to identify when the market's story about Kennesaw State diverges from the football conditions required to cover.
The spread is large, the favorite plays slowly, and the game script allows Kennesaw State to stay inside the number without chasing points.
The offense must play from behind, protect for long-yardage throws and generate explosives simply to reach the market expectation.
Quarterback efficiency, offensive-line cohesion and whether the defense can get off the field without blitzing itself out of structure.
Season-defining questionCan this team turn a manageable schedule into a real Conference USA title path?