The 2026 outlook
Will the roster hold up in the Sun Belt's physical, high-variance weekly environment?
South Alabama opens No. 109 nationally and No. 10 of 14 in the Sun Belt. The 4M baseline rates the roster 9.4 points below an average FBS team on a neutral field and projects 4.4 regular-season wins.
South Alabama begins below the FBS average, so progress should first appear in functional line play, fewer negative snaps and cleaner late-game execution. That does not make this team an automatic fade; large spreads become valuable when the favorite lacks the pace or explosiveness to create margin.
Depth is the central concern. Transfers can raise the first unit quickly, but the two-deep has to hold up across twelve games. The first month should reveal whether the rebuild created real competition or simply moved uncertainty from one position group to another.
The schedule grades No. 101 nationally—enough resistance to expose weaknesses without defining the entire year. A small group of swing games should determine whether South Alabama beats its 4.4-win projection, placing extra value on special teams, fourth-down decisions and late-game quarterback play.
Personnel command center
Who is back, who arrived and who has to matter.
The roster is grouped by continuity because returning snaps and proven transfer production are more useful than raw headcount. “New / unverified” means the player did not match last season's roster or the incoming portal file—not that the player is necessarily a freshman.
Head coachMajor Applewhite11–14 over the available CFBD career window
Staff continuityReturning head coachContinuity is treated as context, not an automatic upgrade.
Portal ledger12 in · 30 outImpact is weighted by rating, position and prior usage.
Position-group modelPremium roles separated.Fifty is FBS average. Quarterback includes the modeled starter probability, not merely the best name in the room.
4M player valueHighest-leverage rolesMaximum point value assumes the player is fully unavailable and is reduced by status probability.
PlayerPos.4M valueSizeContinuity
#83Everett HunterManteca, CATE0.6 pts45% role · 64% conf.6′4″ · 250 lbTransfer infrom Nicholls
#57Shalik HubbardPatterson, NJOL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 330 lbTransfer infrom Monmouth
#11Andrew HinesKissimmee, FLDL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 285 lbTransfer infrom Eastern Kentucky
#12Jaylen MosonKennesaw, GACB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 175 lbTransfer infrom Utah
#1DJ MooreLoganville, GAS0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 200 lbTransfer infrom Georgia Tech
#17Christian RossTeaneck, NJLB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 235 lbTransfer infrom Holy Cross
#42Dylan ChiedoJacksonville, FLLB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 230 lbTransfer infrom Furman
#16Seidrion LangstonLanett, ALLB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 220 lbTransfer infrom UL Monroe
#37Dylan FreeburyRancho Palos Verdes, CAPK0.3 pts38% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 180 lbTransfer infrom Colorado State
#38Peyton ArgentHoover, ALPK0.3 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 195 lbTransfer infrom South Carolina
#4Bishop DavenportSpring, TXQB4.7 pts94% starter · 76% conf.6′2″ · 210 lbReturning
#12Brendan JenkinsHoschton, GAWR0.7 pts49% role · 64% conf.6′0″ · 195 lbReturning
#1Anthony EagerMobile, ALWR0.7 pts56% role · 64% conf.6′1″ · 185 lbReturning
#6Micah WoodsPinson, ALWR0.7 pts48% role · 64% conf.6′0″ · 190 lbReturning
#9Rod GibbsAtlanta, GATE0.7 pts48% role · 64% conf.6′4″ · 250 lbReturning
#2Jeremiah Jones-ThomasCrawfordville, FLWR0.6 pts47% role · 64% conf.5′11″ · 180 lbReturning
#66Devin WhiteTuscaloosa, ALOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 280 lbReturning
#72Ethan HubbardHoover, ALOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′6″ · 295 lbReturning
#64Jamal SilerElba, ALOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 310 lbReturning
#71Jaylen BookerJacksonville, FLOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 305 lbReturning
#61Julius KiddMobile, ALOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 260 lbReturning
#77Kearius BivensChatom, ALOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 295 lbReturning
#69Kenton JeridoTuscaloosa, ALOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 340 lbReturning
#68Reese Osei-WusuCypress, TXOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 310 lbReturning
#3Keenan PhillipsBainbridge, GARB0.6 pts69% role · 76% conf.5′10″ · 185 lbReturning
#0PJ MartinNew Orleans, LARB0.6 pts65% role · 76% conf.5′10″ · 205 lbReturning
#90E'Mauri SmileyOpelika, ALDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 265 lbReturning
#9Emmanuel WallerBirmingham, ALDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 275 lbReturning
#56Stephen JohnsonFayetteville, GADL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 310 lbReturning
#49Tre BrownNatchitoches, LADL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 295 lbReturning
#41Tyler CarterVicksburg, MSDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 290 lbReturning
#21Trae'von DunbarGraniteville, SCRB0.5 pts48% role · 64% conf.5′10″ · 205 lbReturning
#19Jerrian GrahamPrichard, ALWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 200 lbReturning
#8Noah TosterApex, NCWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 200 lbReturning
#11Trae StevensonMadison, MSWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 190 lbReturning
#27Tylen CampbellJackson, ALWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 185 lbReturning
#14Maddox LynchVicksburg, MSTE0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 240 lbReturning
#84Nate ForystekGreen Bay, WITE0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 260 lbReturning
#88Owen CarlsonChelsea, ALTE0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 230 lbReturning
#34Bradley ThomasMontgomery, ALCB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 175 lbReturning
#23Cube GurleyNew Orleans, LACB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 195 lbReturning
#24Damyrion DarbyBassfield, MSCB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 180 lbReturning
#7Deuce VanceHattiesburg, MSCB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 180 lbReturning
#14Cole BlaylockMobile, ALS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 190 lbReturning
#8Dallas YoungGardendale, ALS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 205 lbReturning
#31Dashaun CaffeePrattville, ALS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′7″ · 165 lbReturning
#2Jayvon HendersonAuburn, GAS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 190 lbReturning
#29Kaleb JacksonBessemer, ALS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′8″ · 180 lbReturning
#4Kohl BradleyLucedale, MSS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 190 lbReturning
#35Matthew LaseterFlowood, MSS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 180 lbReturning
#22Caleb DozierDothan, ALLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 220 lbReturning
#44Donnie ArnoldDeatsville, ALLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 235 lbReturning
#43Jacob PorcoBirmingham, ALLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 210 lbReturning
#48Jordan WilliamsMetairie, LALB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 230 lbReturning
#53Latrelle LettMobile, ALLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′8″ · 235 lbReturning
#0Parker ShattuckLaGrange, GALB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 220 lbReturning
#20Tirrell JohnsonWynne, ARLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 230 lbReturning
#25Tre'Mon HenryColumbus, GALB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 235 lbReturning
#10William Felton IVPelham, ALLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 225 lbReturning
#24Julyon JordanGuntersville, ALRB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′9″ · 180 lbReturning
#35Davis LittleSuwanee, GAPK0.3 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 175 lbReturning
#40Aleksi PulkkinenHelsinkiP0.3 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 215 lbReturning
#44Baxter TurnerSaraland, ALLS0.3 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 200 lbReturning
#47Grant RountreeNashville, TNLS0.3 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 215 lbReturning
#7Jared HollinsSemmes, ALQB0.2 pts4% starter · 64% conf.6′4″ · 210 lbReturning
#52Andre WoodsMontgomery, ALOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 330 lbNew / unverified
#67Artem Korchagin JrMoscowOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 300 lbNew / unverified
#74Aydan NewellBrandon, MSOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 315 lbNew / unverified
#58Cam'Ron ThompsonSavannah, GAOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 330 lbNew / unverified
#60Devon WallerDetroit, MIOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 290 lbNew / unverified
#51Diego CamboiaMobile, ALOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′5″ · 265 lbNew / unverified
#70Elliott ChaneyOxford, MSOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′5″ · 290 lbNew / unverified
#79Eric MahanSpanish Fort, ALOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 402 lbNew / unverified
#73Jamal ScottSaint Francisville, LAOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′11″ · 230 lbNew / unverified
#62Kyle GreakOrange Beach, ALOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 293 lbNew / unverified
#56Naol AndargeFairfax, VAOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′5″ · 300 lbNew / unverified
#85Andrew WashburnMooresville, NCDL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 270 lbNew / unverified
#80Brayden HurstPonchatoula, LADL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 310 lbNew / unverified
#93Jeremiah WaldrondFuquay Varina, NCDL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 275 lbNew / unverified
#18Mase LewisBreaux Bridge, LADL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 275 lbNew / unverified
#39Rodney HunterMemphis, TNDL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 305 lbNew / unverified
#75Tyler WileyOxford, MSDL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 275 lbNew / unverified
#85Brian BarnesPascagoula, MSWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 215 lbNew / unverified
#23Dominic WhiteAdamsville, ALWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 190 lbNew / unverified
#13Jarvis Washington JrBaton Rouge, LAWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 190 lbNew / unverified
#28JJ WilliamsPrattville, ALWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′10″ · 205 lbNew / unverified
#10Khatori MarionMobile, ALWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′11″ · 180 lbNew / unverified
#81Miguel CamboiaMobile, ALWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′9″ · 175 lbNew / unverified
#34Cam McFarlinHoover, ALTE0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 240 lbNew / unverified
#87Jordan MorrisApache Junction, AZTE0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 230 lbNew / unverified
#82Julius MathisLexington, MSTE0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 230 lbNew / unverified
#15Colby WilliamsPlainfield, ILCB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 185 lbNew / unverified
#37Evan JonesArab, ALCB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 175 lbNew / unverified
#19TJ CollierMobile, ALCB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 180 lbNew / unverified
#3Tre Webb IIINew Orleans, LACB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 190 lbNew / unverified
#38Braiden CheshirePace, FLS0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′10″ · 175 lbNew / unverified
#32Camen UpshawPerry, FLS0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 200 lbNew / unverified
#21Deon CallinsBirmingham, ALS0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′10″ · 190 lbNew / unverified
#13Kam RobinsonWinona, MSS0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′11″ · 185 lbNew / unverified
#36Teryn GreenVicksburg, MSS0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 215 lbNew / unverified
#28Tomareo Johnson JrPascagoula, MSS0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 200 lbNew / unverified
#45Demetress MosleyPensacola, FLLB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 195 lbNew / unverified
#6Kaydon DegraffenreidJacksonville, FLLB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 225 lbNew / unverified
#30Perry HandMobile, ALLB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′11″ · 200 lbNew / unverified
#46Terry Kirksey JrTheodore, ALLB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 245 lbNew / unverified
#33Tyray DarensburgChalmette, LALB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′11″ · 225 lbNew / unverified
#26Xavious Anderson Jr.Hogansville, GALB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 225 lbNew / unverified
#27Zechariah HallSylvester, GALB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 230 lbNew / unverified
#16Aaden ShamburgerMobile, ALQB0.2 pts4% starter · 28% conf.6′2″ · 180 lbNew / unverified
#18Jerry HorneDenham Springs, LAQB0.2 pts4% starter · 28% conf.6′0″ · 200 lbNew / unverified
#15Taylor Jacobs JrTallahassee, FLQB0.2 pts4% starter · 28% conf.5′11″ · 195 lbNew / unverified
#17Anthony JefferyThomson, GARB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′8″ · 190 lbNew / unverified
#22Caleb WynnAnniston, ALRB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′9″ · 205 lbNew / unverified
#26Donovan CrowPhenix City, ALRB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′11″ · 215 lbNew / unverified
#20Lavonte ColeThomasville, GARB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′11″ · 195 lbNew / unverified
#98Christopher AikmanSchertz, TXPK0.1 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′11″ · 150 lbNew / unverified
#97Max RothLondonPK0.1 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′11″ · 220 lbNew / unverified
2026 schedule
The path that shapes the projection.
The model prices every scheduled game individually. Home field, neutral sites, completed results and opponent rating feed the expected-win total shown above.
WeekOpponentSiteDate / result
1SE LouisianaNon-conference · Hancock Whitney Stadium · 4M 22–31 · 70% win
HomeSep 57:00 PM EDT · model ↗2TulaneNon-conference · Yulman Stadium · 4M 22–32 · 29% win
AwaySep 127:00 PM EDT · model ↗3
OhioNon-conference · Hancock Whitney Stadium · 4M 28–26 · 47% win
HomeSep 197:00 PM EDT · model ↗4
KentuckyNon-conference · Kroger Field · 4M 20–32 · 26% win
AwaySep 2612:45 PM EDT · model ↗5
UL MonroeConference · Hancock Whitney Stadium · 4M 23–30 · 64% win
HomeOct 312:00 AM EDT · model ↗6
Arkansas StateConference · Centennial Bank Stadium · 4M 26–26 · 48% win
AwayOct 87:30 PM EDT · model ↗8
MarshallConference · Joan C. Edwards Stadium · 4M 24–29 · 38% win
AwayOct 207:30 PM EDT · model ↗9
Louisiana TechConference · Hancock Whitney Stadium · 4M 26–26 · 50% win
HomeOct 3112:00 AM EDT · model ↗10
LouisianaConference · Cajun Field · 4M 25–28 · 44% win
AwayNov 712:00 AM EST · model ↗11
TroyConference · Hancock Whitney Stadium · 4M 25–27 · 53% win
HomeNov 1412:00 AM EST · model ↗12
Southern MissConference · M. M. Roberts Stadium · 4M 25–28 · 44% win
AwayNov 2112:00 AM EST · model ↗13
App StateConference · Hancock Whitney Stadium · 4M 24–29 · 61% win
HomeNov 273:00 PM EST · model ↗Range of outcomes
The projection is the middle—not the ceiling.
Floor case2 wins
Instability at premium positions turns swing games into losses.
4M midpoint4 wins
The roster performs close to its current power and schedule baseline.
Ceiling case7 wins
Quarterback play and line continuity outperform the preseason prior.
The betting lens
Price and matchup decide the play.
No team is an automatic bet or fade. The goal is to identify when the market's story about South Alabama diverges from the football conditions required to cover.
The spread is large, the favorite plays slowly, and the game script allows South Alabama to stay inside the number without chasing points.
The offense must play from behind, protect for long-yardage throws and generate explosives simply to reach the market expectation.
Quarterback efficiency, offensive-line cohesion and whether the defense can get off the field without blitzing itself out of structure.
Season-defining questionWill the roster hold up in the Sun Belt's physical, high-variance weekly environment?