The 2026 outlook
Will the roster hold up in the Sun Belt's physical, high-variance weekly environment?
Coastal Carolina opens No. 121 nationally and No. 12 of 14 in the Sun Belt. The 4M baseline rates the roster 12.0 points below an average FBS team on a neutral field and projects 4.1 regular-season wins.
Coastal Carolina begins below the FBS average, so progress should first appear in functional line play, fewer negative snaps and cleaner late-game execution. That does not make this team an automatic fade; large spreads become valuable when the favorite lacks the pace or explosiveness to create margin.
Depth is the central concern. Transfers can raise the first unit quickly, but the two-deep has to hold up across twelve games. The first month should reveal whether the rebuild created real competition or simply moved uncertainty from one position group to another.
The schedule grades No. 107 nationally—enough resistance to expose weaknesses without defining the entire year. A small group of swing games should determine whether Coastal Carolina beats its 4.1-win projection, placing extra value on special teams, fourth-down decisions and late-game quarterback play.
Personnel command center
Who is back, who arrived and who has to matter.
The roster is grouped by continuity because returning snaps and proven transfer production are more useful than raw headcount. “New / unverified” means the player did not match last season's roster or the incoming portal file—not that the player is necessarily a freshman.
Head coachRyan Beard7–5 over the available CFBD career window
Staff continuityNew head coachReplaces Tim Beck
Portal ledger32 in · 43 outImpact is weighted by rating, position and prior usage.
Position-group modelPremium roles separated.Fifty is FBS average. Quarterback includes the modeled starter probability, not merely the best name in the room.
4M player valueHighest-leverage rolesMaximum point value assumes the player is fully unavailable and is reduced by status probability.
PlayerPos.4M valueSizeContinuity
#5Goldie LawrenceSanford, FLWR0.7 pts47% role · 64% conf.6′1″ · 190 lbTransfer infrom Florida A&M
#3Tristian GardnerDallas, TXWR0.6 pts46% role · 64% conf.6′2″ · 180 lbTransfer infrom Missouri State
#8Clayton Coppock Jr.Atlanta, GAWR0.6 pts49% role · 64% conf.6′1″ · 165 lbTransfer infrom Kennesaw State
#9Cyrus EllisonPamplico, SCTE0.6 pts47% role · 64% conf.6′4″ · 240 lbTransfer infrom South Carolina State
#26Daelen AlexanderPflugerville, TXRB0.5 pts60% role · 76% conf.5′10″ · 221 lbTransfer infrom Rice
#58Apisa PoumelePago PagoOL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 290 lbTransfer infrom Central Michigan
#78Daughtry RichardsonMiami Gardens, FLOL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′6″ · 328 lbTransfer infrom Florida Atlantic
#68Mason BartonWest Memphis, AROL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′7″ · 335 lbTransfer infrom Jackson State
#92Ahmad PooleDanville, VADL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 305 lbTransfer infrom Missouri State
#97Cam WilliamsMontgomery, ALDL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 252 lbTransfer infrom Clark Atlanta
#0Chandavian BradleyKansas City, MODL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′6″ · 240 lbTransfer infrom Oklahoma State
#7DJ WesolakBoonville, MODL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 255 lbTransfer infrom Missouri State
#94Donovan GraysonStafford, VADL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 240 lbTransfer infrom Samford
#50Mitchell ToneyLouisville, KYDL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 275 lbTransfer infrom Missouri State
#90Reggie JeanOrlando, FLDL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 299 lbTransfer infrom Northern Illinois
#35Xzavier BookerMooresville, NCDL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 315 lbTransfer infrom Alabama A&M
#6Krosse JohnsonNew Orleans, LAWR0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 180 lbTransfer infrom Arkansas
#89Tamarion LaFortuneWest Haven, CTWR0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 170 lbTransfer infrom Western Connecticut State
#36Damill Bostic Jr.Washington, DCCB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 185 lbTransfer infrom Villanova
#8Gabe WhiteCharleston, SCCB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 210 lbTransfer infrom Bethune-Cookman
#6Jalen LeeWentzville, MOS0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 200 lbTransfer infrom South Dakota State
#15Mason MooreLexington, KYS0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 195 lbTransfer infrom Lehigh
#23Azarel JusteColumbus, GADB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 195 lbTransfer infrom Bryant
#16Jesse Powell IICary, NCDB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 215 lbTransfer infrom Elon
#18Jordan ThompsonCharlotte, NCLB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 220 lbTransfer infrom Western Carolina
#4Marcellius PulliamAtlanta, GALB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 240 lbTransfer infrom Michigan State
#25Jaden Allen-HendrixColumbia, SCRB0.3 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 225 lbTransfer infrom Oklahoma State
#90Daniel PortoRecifePK0.3 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 202 lbTransfer infrom Florida A&M
#30Nico Cavanillas AltiMadridPK0.3 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 200 lbTransfer infrom South Carolina State
#42Roland PodestaSydney, NSWP0.3 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 210 lbTransfer infrom Boise State
#7Trever JacksonWinter Garden, FLQB0.2 pts4% starter · 40% conf.6′3″ · 202 lbTransfer infrom Arkansas
#0Karmello EnglishPhenix City, ALWR0.7 pts51% role · 64% conf.6′0″ · 190 lbReturning
#33Zach CourtneyPost, TXTE0.7 pts52% role · 64% conf.6′6″ · 253 lbReturning
#1Robby WashingtonMiami, FLWR0.7 pts53% role · 64% conf.5′11″ · 180 lbReturning
#70Daniel JonesValdosta, GAOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′6″ · 298 lbReturning
#72Dominic RijosSpringfield, MAOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 320 lbReturning
#55Gavin McLaughlinConcord, NCOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 315 lbReturning
#77Johnathan AshleyAugusta, GAOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 300 lbReturning
#66Kain McDonaldHudson, NCOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 305 lbReturning
#56Tray FranklinColumbia, SCOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 315 lbReturning
#1Ibrahim DiawaraPhiladelphia, PADE0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 260 lbReturning
#93Obinna OnwukaUpper Marlboro, MDDE0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 245 lbReturning
#58Sam RossPhiladelphia, PADE0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 243 lbReturning
#49Shaikh ThompsonHilton Head Island, SCDE0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 250 lbReturning
#23Dominic KnicelyVienna, VARB0.5 pts59% role · 76% conf.5′10″ · 193 lbReturning
#81Dwayne WhitePrescott, ARWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 200 lbReturning
#82Nathan SchuesslerMyrtle Beach, SCWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 185 lbReturning
#80Trishstin GlassCopperas Cove, TXWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 205 lbReturning
#44Brown ReavesMyrtle Beach, SCTE0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 235 lbReturning
#2Ja'Marion WayneSt. Louis, MOCB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 207 lbReturning
#25Brandon RoseCharlotte, NCS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 188 lbReturning
#26Chase JacksonMoody, ALS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 186 lbReturning
#17Chris HenryDunnellon, FLS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 196 lbReturning
#12Dre PinckneyBoiling Springs, SCS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 193 lbReturning
#32Jayden JacksonReedsville, PAS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 190 lbReturning
#28Rilan CunninghamWest Columbia, SCS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 176 lbReturning
#45Kadon CrawfordClinton, SCDB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 208 lbReturning
#14Myles WoodsGrayson, GADB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 180 lbReturning
#14Colton HintonAshburn, VAWR0.4 pts46% role · 64% conf.5′11″ · 180 lbReturning
#20Jevon EdwardsAiken, SCRB0.4 pts57% role · 76% conf.5′10″ · 197 lbReturning
#37Cameron AverySummerville, SCLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 215 lbReturning
#44Kaden SappMiami Gardens, FLLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 220 lbReturning
#19Se'Von McDowellDinwiddie, VALB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 220 lbReturning
#55Tray BrownMargate, FLLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 232 lbReturning
#34Wyatt GedeonAvon Lake, OHLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 225 lbReturning
#28Joe OberMyrtle Beach, SCRB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 221 lbReturning
#22Breyahn TownsendMidlothian, ILRB0.3 pts47% role · 64% conf.5′10″ · 185 lbReturning
#46Gavin CarrickBluffton, SCLS0.3 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 235 lbReturning
#2Deuce BaileyBowling Green, KYQB5.0 pts94% starter · 52% conf.6′1″ · 190 lbNew / unverified
#62Beau GwynnBluffton, SCOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 330 lbNew / unverified
#76Cristian LoaizaWesley Chapel, FLOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′5″ · 330 lbNew / unverified
#52Gabe JonesLocust Grove, GAOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 300 lbNew / unverified
#65Joshua DanielBirmingham, ALOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 320 lbNew / unverified
#75Kyler JohnsonDarlington, SCOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′5″ · 315 lbNew / unverified
#50Nasir JonesRome, GAOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 300 lbNew / unverified
#71Stephan MondesirPalmetto, FLOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′5″ · 330 lbNew / unverified
#31Aiden ParkerAuburn, ALDE0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 225 lbNew / unverified
#98Dezmond BarnesMillbrook, ALDL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 310 lbNew / unverified
#99Jordan StevensHyattsville, MDDL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 235 lbNew / unverified
#95Nolan KorzeniowskiElmhurst, ILDL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 280 lbNew / unverified
#87Jayden JohnsonTexas City, TXWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 165 lbNew / unverified
#84Joshua ParkerHyattsville, MDWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 208 lbNew / unverified
#83KD HainsworthSpartanburg, SCWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 160 lbNew / unverified
#85Ben VergesFranklin, WITE0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′5″ · 249 lbNew / unverified
#86Bryson WoodLos Angeles, CATE0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 228 lbNew / unverified
#88Jackson KohlEllisville, MOTE0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′6″ · 250 lbNew / unverified
#38Garrett Smith-DeanKansas City, MOCB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′10″ · 175 lbNew / unverified
#21King WhiteKilleen, TXCB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 180 lbNew / unverified
#47Michael KnightPittsburgh, PACB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 170 lbNew / unverified
#3Ryan GraysonBeggs, OKCB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 165 lbNew / unverified
#10Travis RomanNederland, TXCB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 165 lbNew / unverified
#20Jax PopeBuford, GAS0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 190 lbNew / unverified
#33Zeke MarshallAnderson, SCS0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′5″ · 190 lbNew / unverified
#9Donald QuistAllen, TXDB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 205 lbNew / unverified
#11Braxton StarnesHamshire, TXLB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 225 lbNew / unverified
#43Garrett OrgasVicksburg, MSLB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 200 lbNew / unverified
#27Romello PattersonFlorence, SCLB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 224 lbNew / unverified
#15Luke McBrideLakeway, TXQB0.2 pts4% starter · 28% conf.6′3″ · 206 lbNew / unverified
#12Osiris LopezLeominster, MAQB0.2 pts4% starter · 28% conf.6′2″ · 185 lbNew / unverified
#4Tre GuerraKeller, TXQB0.2 pts4% starter · 28% conf.6′2″ · 190 lbNew / unverified
#21Kente EdawardsAnnandale, NJRB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′9″ · 197 lbNew / unverified
#84Andrew GinsbergMobile, ALP0.1 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′10″ · 197 lbNew / unverified
#41Mitch WeisenbornSt. Peters, MOLS0.1 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 240 lbNew / unverified
2026 schedule
The path that shapes the projection.
The model prices every scheduled game individually. Home field, neutral sites, completed results and opponent rating feed the expected-win total shown above.
WeekOpponentSiteDate / result
1West VirginiaNon-conference · Milan Puskar Stadium · 4M 21–29 · 33% win
AwaySep 512:00 PM EDT · model ↗2
FordhamNon-conference · Brooks Stadium (SC) · 4M 16–36 · 86% win
HomeSep 127:30 PM EDT · model ↗3DelawareNon-conference · Delaware Stadium · 4M 25–28 · 44% win
AwaySep 1911:30 AM EDT · model ↗4
LibertyNon-conference · Brooks Stadium (SC) · 4M 28–25 · 44% win
HomeSep 247:30 PM EDT · model ↗5
Georgia SouthernConference · Brooks Stadium (SC) · 4M 28–27 · 49% win
HomeOct 312:00 AM EDT · model ↗6
MarshallConference · Joan C. Edwards Stadium · 4M 22–30 · 34% win
AwayOct 1012:00 AM EDT · model ↗7
App StateConference · Brooks Stadium (SC) · 4M 25–28 · 56% win
HomeOct 168:00 PM EDT · model ↗9Georgia StateConference · Center Parc Stadium · 4M 27–26 · 54% win
AwayOct 3112:00 AM EDT · model ↗10
Old DominionConference · Brooks Stadium (SC) · 4M 29–21 · 34% win
HomeNov 712:00 AM EST · model ↗11
Arkansas StateConference · Brooks Stadium (SC) · 4M 25–26 · 53% win
HomeNov 1412:00 AM EST · model ↗12
LouisianaConference · Cajun Field · 4M 24–29 · 40% win
AwayNov 2112:00 AM EST · model ↗13
James MadisonConference · Bridgeforth Stadium · 4M 18–32 · 22% win
AwayNov 2812:00 AM EST · model ↗
Range of outcomes
The projection is the middle—not the ceiling.
Floor case2 wins
Instability at premium positions turns swing games into losses.
4M midpoint4 wins
The roster performs close to its current power and schedule baseline.
Ceiling case6 wins
Quarterback play and line continuity outperform the preseason prior.
The betting lens
Price and matchup decide the play.
No team is an automatic bet or fade. The goal is to identify when the market's story about Coastal Carolina diverges from the football conditions required to cover.
The spread is large, the favorite plays slowly, and the game script allows Coastal Carolina to stay inside the number without chasing points.
The offense must play from behind, protect for long-yardage throws and generate explosives simply to reach the market expectation.
Quarterback efficiency, offensive-line cohesion and whether the defense can get off the field without blitzing itself out of structure.
Season-defining questionWill the roster hold up in the Sun Belt's physical, high-variance weekly environment?