The 2026 outlook
Will experienced line play and close-game execution create a MAC breakthrough?
Kent State opens No. 129 nationally and No. 9 of 13 in the MAC. The 4M baseline rates the roster 15.2 points below an average FBS team on a neutral field and projects 3.8 regular-season wins.
Kent State begins below the FBS average, so progress should first appear in functional line play, fewer negative snaps and cleaner late-game execution. That does not make this team an automatic fade; large spreads become valuable when the favorite lacks the pace or explosiveness to create margin.
Depth is the central concern. Transfers can raise the first unit quickly, but the two-deep has to hold up across twelve games. The first month should reveal whether the rebuild created real competition or simply moved uncertainty from one position group to another.
The schedule grades No. 85 nationally—enough resistance to expose weaknesses without defining the entire year. A small group of swing games should determine whether Kent State beats its 3.8-win projection, placing extra value on special teams, fourth-down decisions and late-game quarterback play.
Personnel command center
Who is back, who arrived and who has to matter.
The roster is grouped by continuity because returning snaps and proven transfer production are more useful than raw headcount. “New / unverified” means the player did not match last season's roster or the incoming portal file—not that the player is necessarily a freshman.
Head coachMark Carney5–7 over the available CFBD career window
Staff continuityReturning head coachContinuity is treated as context, not an automatic upgrade.
Portal ledger11 in · 15 outImpact is weighted by rating, position and prior usage.
Position-group modelPremium roles separated.Fifty is FBS average. Quarterback includes the modeled starter probability, not merely the best name in the room.
4M player valueHighest-leverage rolesMaximum point value assumes the player is fully unavailable and is reduced by status probability.
PlayerPos.4M valueSizeContinuity
#22Davion PritchardYoungstown, OHDB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 175 lbTransfer infrom Pittsburgh
#18Norey JohnsonCincinnati, OHDB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 200 lbTransfer infrom Houston Christian
#10Hayden DawahareLexington, KYLB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 245 lbTransfer infrom Kentucky
#35Nate GregoryStow, OHLB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 235 lbTransfer infrom Coastal Carolina
#13Quan Rhodes-McKeeColumbus, OHLB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 225 lbTransfer infrom Duquesne
#4Rocco NichollPhiladelphia, PALB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 245 lbTransfer infrom South Florida
#0Mason KingCentralia, ILRB0.3 pts47% role · 64% conf.6′2″ · 215 lbTransfer infrom Illinois State
#26Dylan ArmentroutCarroll, OHRB0.3 pts38% role · 40% conf.5′9″ · 200 lbTransfer infrom Defiance College
#5Jakorion CaffeyAvon, OHRB0.3 pts41% role · 64% conf.5′11″ · 220 lbTransfer infrom Cincinnati
#10Ethan ThanthanavongLithopolis, OHQB0.2 pts4% starter · 40% conf.6′0″ · 205 lbTransfer infrom Defiance College
#12Dru DeShieldsBeloit, OHQB4.9 pts94% starter · 76% conf.6′2″ · 195 lbReturning
#89Terik MulderLexington, KYTE0.7 pts53% role · 64% conf.6′5″ · 250 lbReturning
#3Jay Jay EtheridgeCincinnati, OHWR0.7 pts50% role · 64% conf.5′10″ · 150 lbReturning
#8Da'Realyst ClarkLima, OHWR0.7 pts49% role · 64% conf.5′10″ · 160 lbReturning
#1Ardell BanksMassillon, OHWR0.7 pts49% role · 64% conf.6′4″ · 195 lbReturning
#11Zy'aire FletcherSpringfield, OHTE0.7 pts48% role · 64% conf.6′4″ · 245 lbReturning
#6Wayne HarrisHuntington, WVWR0.6 pts61% role · 64% conf.5′9″ · 165 lbReturning
#23Maurice StephensLouisville, KYWR0.6 pts46% role · 64% conf.6′0″ · 175 lbReturning
#75Boston CrowellNew Philadelphia, OHOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 290 lbReturning
#72Cecil WilsonLakeville, MNOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 320 lbReturning
#54Dustyn MorellLapeer, MIOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 290 lbReturning
#70Hudson ChaskoEncino, CAOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 300 lbReturning
#55Jaxon DunnBrunswick, OHOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 320 lbReturning
#67Max GembusCleveland, OHOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 275 lbReturning
#77Rico SteelePittsburgh, PAOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 300 lbReturning
#78Tyler MeadowsCincinnati, OHOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′8″ · 340 lbReturning
#52Aiden BurgessHanover, MDDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 300 lbReturning
#44Antonio BottiggiPainesville, OHDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 255 lbReturning
#98Bryce FaulkMason, OHDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 235 lbReturning
#90Bryce GriffinYorkville, ILDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 235 lbReturning
#0Darian BlachewiczMillville, NJDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 300 lbReturning
#50Garrett DialLittleton, CODL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 235 lbReturning
#83Garrett LongColumbus, INDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 235 lbReturning
#33Jaihien RoyCentreville, MDDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 245 lbReturning
#8Josue CordobaPlainfield, NJDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 280 lbReturning
#88Mohammed HazimeDearborn, MIDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 270 lbReturning
#5Thomas AdenLakewood, OHDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 275 lbReturning
#19Ali FisherBelleville, MIWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 205 lbReturning
#4Jared KelleyNorth Olmsted, OHWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 190 lbReturning
#86Matthew MaxeyAvon, OHWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 165 lbReturning
#80Teaunn HunterHuber Heights, OHWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 180 lbReturning
#13Dakota TaylorAkron, OHTE0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 240 lbReturning
#44Holtz MaineMilford Center, OHTE0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 250 lbReturning
#45Tommy ArnoldWadsworth, OHTE0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 220 lbReturning
#38Clinton RobinsonPittsburgh, PAS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 205 lbReturning
#1A'tiq MuhammadRockford, ILDB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 200 lbReturning
#7Angelo StockstillChicago, ILDB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 180 lbReturning
#26BuddyRow GarrerEvans, GADB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′9″ · 150 lbReturning
#3Derrick Jackson IIIDetroit, MIDB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 210 lbReturning
#19DJ BarnesTallahassee, FLDB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′8″ · 170 lbReturning
#23Ezekiel CastexSacramento, CADB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 175 lbReturning
#2Joel CordobaPlainfield, NJDB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 190 lbReturning
#25Martell BuchananStilwell, KSDB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 175 lbReturning
#14Tyler BivensAnn Arbor, MIDB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 170 lbReturning
#28Brodyn BishopCarroll, OHLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 205 lbReturning
#20Rafael Terrero Jr.Emmaus, PALB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 220 lbReturning
#15Sayed AbuhamdehNorth Royalton, OHLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 230 lbReturning
#24Tanner MintzAkron, OHLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 220 lbReturning
#32Trey RubinsteinNapoleon, OHLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 225 lbReturning
#25Donovan Delaney Jr.Middletown, DERB0.4 pts55% role · 64% conf.5′11″ · 220 lbReturning
#18Hunter HoppertonStreetsboro, OHFB0.4 pts48% role · 64% conf.6′2″ · 255 lbReturning
#33Ayden HarrisExton, PARB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′8″ · 205 lbReturning
#20Marques HicksCherry Hill, NJRB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′8″ · 190 lbReturning
#96Sean LeonardXenia, OHPK0.3 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 230 lbReturning
#49Tommy NewcombLagrange, ILPK0.3 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 185 lbReturning
#97Jake StoeckelSydney, NSWP0.3 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 190 lbReturning
#41Gus GoodellStafford, VALS0.3 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 215 lbReturning
#14Deante RuffinPhiladelphia, PAQB0.2 pts4% starter · 40% conf.6′1″ · 215 lbReturning
#2Nolan GoodAvon, OHQB0.1 pts4% starter · 64% conf.6′2″ · 200 lbReturning
#50Ben MideaMedina, OHOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 320 lbNew / unverified
#58Colin PrichardMentor, OHOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′5″ · 260 lbNew / unverified
#64David IanniniMentor, OHOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 295 lbNew / unverified
#74Donovan DarkNiceville, FLOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 305 lbNew / unverified
#52Gavin KanarNorthfield, OHOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′5″ · 275 lbNew / unverified
#71Liam DaltonHilliard, OHOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 315 lbNew / unverified
#62Mason ImbtTroy, PAOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 315 lbNew / unverified
#76Mofe AdewoleEllicott City, MDOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 275 lbNew / unverified
#56Moustafa DaoudDes Moines, IAOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′6″ · 300 lbNew / unverified
#66Quinten YoungStrongsville, OHOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 280 lbNew / unverified
#73William Johnson IIIAvon, INOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 270 lbNew / unverified
#95Anthony Adams IIILong Grove, ILDL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′10″ · 275 lbNew / unverified
#11Camdon WilbornCincinnati, OHDL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 285 lbNew / unverified
#56Carlos ShirdBaltimore, MDDL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 270 lbNew / unverified
#93Daiveon TaylorMoon Township, PADL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 225 lbNew / unverified
#91Dion'Dre TaylorCleveland, OHDL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 280 lbNew / unverified
#59Eckley BridgesHamilton, OHDL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 260 lbNew / unverified
#31Jacob BroachCincinnati, OHDL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 190 lbNew / unverified
#94Kale WebbXenia, OHDL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 235 lbNew / unverified
#84Aidan StewartAvon Lake, OHWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′11″ · 180 lbNew / unverified
#85Brendyn SmithYork, PAWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′9″ · 160 lbNew / unverified
#27Javier WillsColumbus, OHWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 190 lbNew / unverified
#88Luke SimmsWestlake, OHWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′11″ · 175 lbNew / unverified
#87William BierfeldtWestlake, OHWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 185 lbNew / unverified
#36Wyatt JanuskaMantua, OHWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 185 lbNew / unverified
#81Zymir ReedMiddletown, OHWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 200 lbNew / unverified
#47Andrew RickelmanStow, OHTE0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 225 lbNew / unverified
#29Jeremiah JohnsonRochester, NYDB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 175 lbNew / unverified
#27Lennox LemonMassillon, OHDB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 180 lbNew / unverified
#12Lionel Burns IIIDuluth, GADB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 185 lbNew / unverified
#21Tejuan BarbourColumbus, OHDB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 170 lbNew / unverified
#43Kendall McNuttSt. Louis, MOLB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 220 lbNew / unverified
#30Matthew SollbergerUniontown, OHLB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′9″ · 165 lbNew / unverified
#17Semaj BridgemanPhiladelphia, PALB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 230 lbNew / unverified
#17Cole MillerNorth Ridgeville, OHQB0.2 pts4% starter · 28% conf.6′4″ · 225 lbNew / unverified
#15Gavin PeepsKent, OHQB0.2 pts4% starter · 28% conf.6′5″ · 185 lbNew / unverified
#22Brandon WhiteEuclid, OHRB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′8″ · 190 lbNew / unverified
#29Cade RomaniniBainbridge, OHRB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′10″ · 200 lbNew / unverified
#24Jackson FarleyMentor, OHRB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′9″ · 185 lbNew / unverified
#39Eli TuckerWheeling, WVPK0.1 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′11″ · 205 lbNew / unverified
#42Kolten FordQueen Creek, AZP0.1 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 195 lbNew / unverified
#48Chase MantoothPickerington, OHLS0.1 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 160 lbNew / unverified
2026 schedule
The path that shapes the projection.
The model prices every scheduled game individually. Home field, neutral sites, completed results and opponent rating feed the expected-win total shown above.
WeekOpponentSiteDate / result
1South CarolinaNon-conference · Williams-Brice Stadium · 4M 16–36 · 14% win
AwaySep 512:45 PM EDT · model ↗2
WoffordNon-conference · Dix Stadium · 4M 21–32 · 73% win
HomeSep 1212:00 PM EDT · model ↗3Ohio StateNon-conference · Ohio Stadium · 4M 9–43 · 3% win
AwaySep 1912:00 PM EDT · model ↗4
Ball StateConference · Dix Stadium · 4M 23–28 · 63% win
HomeSep 2612:00 AM EDT · model ↗5
OhioConference · Dix Stadium · 4M 30–24 · 38% win
HomeOct 312:00 AM EDT · model ↗6
Western MichiganConference · Waldo Stadium · 4M 19–31 · 25% win
AwayOct 1012:00 AM EDT · model ↗7
South FloridaNon-conference · Raymond James Stadium · 4M 18–36 · 16% win
AwayOct 1712:00 AM EDT · model ↗8
AkronConference · Dix Stadium · 4M 24–28 · 57% win
HomeOct 2412:00 AM EDT · model ↗9
Sacramento StateConference · Hornet Stadium · 4M 25–27 · 45% win
AwayOct 3010:30 PM EDT · model ↗11
Bowling GreenConference · Doyt L. Perry Stadium · 4M 24–27 · 42% win
AwayNov 107:00 PM EST · model ↗12
Miami (OH)Conference · Dix Stadium · 4M 29–23 · 36% win
HomeNov 177:00 PM EST · model ↗13
Eastern MichiganConference · Rynearson Stadium · 4M 25–29 · 40% win
AwayNov 247:00 PM EST · model ↗
Range of outcomes
The projection is the middle—not the ceiling.
Floor case2 wins
Instability at premium positions turns swing games into losses.
4M midpoint4 wins
The roster performs close to its current power and schedule baseline.
Ceiling case6 wins
Quarterback play and line continuity outperform the preseason prior.
The betting lens
Price and matchup decide the play.
No team is an automatic bet or fade. The goal is to identify when the market's story about Kent State diverges from the football conditions required to cover.
The spread is large, the favorite plays slowly, and the game script allows Kent State to stay inside the number without chasing points.
The offense must play from behind, protect for long-yardage throws and generate explosives simply to reach the market expectation.
Quarterback efficiency, offensive-line cohesion and whether the defense can get off the field without blitzing itself out of structure.
Season-defining questionWill experienced line play and close-game execution create a MAC breakthrough?