The 2026 outlook
Will experienced line play and close-game execution create a MAC breakthrough?
Akron opens No. 132 nationally and No. 11 of 13 in the MAC. The 4M baseline rates the roster 16.3 points below an average FBS team on a neutral field and projects 3.8 regular-season wins.
Akron starts in the development tier. The preseason prior needs evidence before moving higher, but young or rebuilt teams can improve faster than the market adjusts. September performance matters more here than it does for an established contender.
Depth is the central concern. Transfers can raise the first unit quickly, but the two-deep has to hold up across twelve games. The first month should reveal whether the rebuild created real competition or simply moved uncertainty from one position group to another.
The schedule projects among the country's most manageable at No. 120. That creates upside in the win column, but also a pricing trap: the record can improve faster than the underlying team quality, inviting bettors to pay for results that came against limited resistance.
Personnel command center
Who is back, who arrived and who has to matter.
The roster is grouped by continuity because returning snaps and proven transfer production are more useful than raw headcount. “New / unverified” means the player did not match last season's roster or the incoming portal file—not that the player is necessarily a freshman.
Head coachJoe Moorhead13–35 over the available CFBD career window
Staff continuityReturning head coachContinuity is treated as context, not an automatic upgrade.
Portal ledger15 in · 18 outImpact is weighted by rating, position and prior usage.
Position-group modelPremium roles separated.Fifty is FBS average. Quarterback includes the modeled starter probability, not merely the best name in the room.
4M player valueHighest-leverage rolesMaximum point value assumes the player is fully unavailable and is reduced by status probability.
PlayerPos.4M valueSizeContinuity
#7Reese PoffenbargerMiddletown, MDQB0.7 pts16% starter · 40% conf.6′1″ · 215 lbTransfer infrom North Texas
#4Miles BurrisJacksonville, FLWR0.5 pts46% role · 64% conf.6′3″ · 205 lbTransfer infrom Charlotte
#56Brandon SmithWaldorf, MDOL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 310 lbTransfer infrom South Dakota
#71Carlos SlaydenCorpus Christi, TXOL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 300 lbTransfer infrom Southern Miss
#52Nate HamptonBowie, MDOL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 300 lbTransfer infrom Saint Francis (PA)
#90Kurtis WayeMcdonough, GADE0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 240 lbTransfer infrom Clark Atlanta
#52Vaughn HighlandPennsville, NJDT0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 315 lbTransfer infrom Arkansas-Pine Bluff
#84Wyatt HookSaratoga, CATE0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′6″ · 265 lbTransfer infrom Michigan State
#17Caiden NewsomeBaltimore, MDCB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 180 lbTransfer infrom Holy Cross
#11Dawayne Galloway Jr.Columbus, OHCB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 170 lbTransfer infrom West Virginia
#4Zach HobsonDallas, TXCB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 195 lbTransfer infrom Old Dominion
#14Khory MossNassauDB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 190 lbTransfer infrom Miami (OH)
#18Dwight NunooGrand Prairie, TXLB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 230 lbTransfer infrom Florida International
#37Aidan StireMorgantown, WVPK0.3 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 195 lbTransfer infrom West Virginia
#6Brayden RoggowTiffin, OHQB1.1 pts27% starter · 40% conf.6′4″ · 205 lbReturning
#11Cibastian BroughtonOrange Park, FLQB1.1 pts27% starter · 40% conf.5′11″ · 175 lbReturning
#18Johnny BrookhartParker, COQB1.1 pts27% starter · 40% conf.5′11″ · 205 lbReturning
#1Jordan GantLakeland, FLRB0.8 pts87% role · 76% conf.5′10″ · 205 lbReturning
#2Marcel WilliamsHollywood, FLWR0.8 pts57% role · 64% conf.5′11″ · 200 lbReturning
#3Kyan MasonCleveland, OHWR0.8 pts55% role · 64% conf.5′9″ · 155 lbReturning
#12Cameron MonteiroBrockton, MAWR0.7 pts53% role · 64% conf.6′1″ · 190 lbReturning
#9Jean Louis IIINew York, NYWR0.7 pts55% role · 64% conf.5′8″ · 185 lbReturning
#53Alex FoxNew Castle, PAOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 290 lbReturning
#50Allen Jones Jr.Cottonwood, ALOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 290 lbReturning
#55Amarie ArcherNassauOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 300 lbReturning
#72Colin LyonsMckeesport, PAOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 295 lbReturning
#75Dayne ShorAlpharetta, GAOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 325 lbReturning
#73Jonas MannPickerington, OHOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′7″ · 310 lbReturning
#68Jonathan GouldMaize, KSOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 270 lbReturning
#62Max MobleyCincinnati, OHOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 290 lbReturning
#79Nick StopiakColumbia Station, OHOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′6″ · 315 lbReturning
#16Dahvon FrazierLexington, KYDE0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 230 lbReturning
#92Israel DuncanVancouver, WADE0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 240 lbReturning
#50Jahvon FrazierLexington, KYDE0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 230 lbReturning
#97Vann KavalsCoraopolis, PADE0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 265 lbReturning
#1Cyrus DurhamAtherton, CADL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 245 lbReturning
#57Elijah DavisMiddletown, OHDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 300 lbReturning
#99Jaiden Brown-DemeryWest Mifflin, PADL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 310 lbReturning
#8Jon'Trell MixonYoungstown, OHDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 285 lbReturning
#51Omari BivensLewis Center, OHDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 255 lbReturning
#5Ronald HullUpper Marlboro, MDDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 300 lbReturning
#93Ty WatkinsCincinnati, OHDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 240 lbReturning
#85Conner CravaackCincinnati, OHTE0.5 pts53% role · 64% conf.6′4″ · 245 lbReturning
#88Dominic MonzMcdonald, PAWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′7″ · 175 lbReturning
#80Jalen HightowerHometown not listedWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 190 lbReturning
#81Luke SivonPerry, OHWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 200 lbReturning
#16Paul DavisBowman, GAWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 200 lbReturning
#82Troy HazudaOregon, OHWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 200 lbReturning
#13Sean PatrickChagrin Falls, OHRB0.5 pts63% role · 76% conf.5′11″ · 180 lbReturning
#2Daymon DavidGwynn Oak, MDS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 210 lbReturning
#6Jamari SomervilleIndian Head, MDS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 195 lbReturning
#13Rodrick HunterAtlanta, GAS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 190 lbReturning
#15Terence ThomasBoardman, OHS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′9″ · 190 lbReturning
#9Aamii BranchForney, TXDB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 180 lbReturning
#3Alex BranchTwinsburg, OHDB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 190 lbReturning
#43Austin WondolowskiNorth Royalton, OHDB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 205 lbReturning
#21Catrell WhiteNew York, NYDB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 175 lbReturning
#12Iesa JarmonCincinnati, OHDB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 185 lbReturning
#27Keyveon JohnsonSunrise, FLDB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 185 lbReturning
#20Mehki FlowersHarrisburg, PADB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 200 lbReturning
#29Tairan Davis Jr.Youngstown, OHDB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 185 lbReturning
#24Marquese WilliamsHarrisburg, PARB0.5 pts60% role · 64% conf.5′9″ · 180 lbReturning
#8Brandon HillsColorado Springs, COWR0.5 pts46% role · 64% conf.5′10″ · 180 lbReturning
#34Cam MaconBarberton, OHLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 220 lbReturning
#45Devin ReevesQuantico, VALB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 235 lbReturning
#31Gavin JamesTallahassee, FLLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 220 lbReturning
#25Jason HockerLexington, KYLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 230 lbReturning
#25Chris GeeFort Worth, TXRB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 210 lbReturning
#28Luke ReedGarfield Heights, OHRB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 190 lbReturning
#26Taven CurryLoxley, ALRB0.3 pts46% role · 64% conf.6′0″ · 215 lbReturning
#47Matthew SchrammDublin, OHPK0.3 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′9″ · 180 lbReturning
#95Joseph CastleNorth Huntingdon, PAP0.3 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 205 lbReturning
#49Frank MinerSeattle, WALS0.3 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 205 lbReturning
#63August WeightMedina, OHOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 245 lbNew / unverified
#78Daxton Christman-GourleyMission Viejo, CAOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′6″ · 275 lbNew / unverified
#57Ian FalknerCollierville, TNOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 300 lbNew / unverified
#51Jason HoskinsDover, DEOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 345 lbNew / unverified
#61Jon StephensSimmes, ALOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 285 lbNew / unverified
#77Lorvens BarthelemyPompano Beach, FLOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 325 lbNew / unverified
#70Melvin PuckettPaducah, KYOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 300 lbNew / unverified
#96Brandon Tobias IIFort Lauderdale, FLDE0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′5″ · 250 lbNew / unverified
#56Omari AborDuncanville, TXDE0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 250 lbNew / unverified
#55Jalen WilliamsShreveport, LADT0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′6″ · 340 lbNew / unverified
#44Jasun RidleyPasadena, CADL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 260 lbNew / unverified
#65Logan HindmarchPittsburgh, PADL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′9″ · 240 lbNew / unverified
#94Malakai Ross-GravesSanta Cruz, CADL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 280 lbNew / unverified
#87Gentz HilburnJersey City, NJWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′10″ · 195 lbNew / unverified
#15Jaborree RigginsPompano Beach, FLWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 185 lbNew / unverified
#5Titus MyersStatesville, NCWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 180 lbNew / unverified
#83Elijah AlexanderOakland, CATE0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 235 lbNew / unverified
#23Yaseen DeReeseTitusville, FLTE0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 225 lbNew / unverified
#22Henry PerrymondCleveland Heights, OHCB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′11″ · 175 lbNew / unverified
#24Savion LewisCleveland, OHCB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′11″ · 175 lbNew / unverified
#35Rod Smith Jr.Tyrone, GADB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′10″ · 175 lbNew / unverified
#30Terry Lee Jr.Chicago, ILDB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 175 lbNew / unverified
#23Daunte CurtisPickerington, OHLB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 205 lbNew / unverified
#32Donelius JohnsonPatterson, GALB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 225 lbNew / unverified
#19Eddie Smith IIIWinchester, CALB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 230 lbNew / unverified
#7Jeremiah JonesKennesaw, GALB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 235 lbNew / unverified
#42Jude BuchananVancouver, BCLB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 235 lbNew / unverified
#10Semaj BealsPhiladelphia, PAQB0.2 pts4% starter · 28% conf.6′1″ · 190 lbNew / unverified
#40Jordan WestrichPeoria, AZPK0.1 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′11″ · 170 lbNew / unverified
#36Charlie VolpePlantation, FLLS0.1 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 190 lbNew / unverified
#41Stone DeanElkins, ARLS0.1 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 220 lbNew / unverified
2026 schedule
The path that shapes the projection.
The model prices every scheduled game individually. Home field, neutral sites, completed results and opponent rating feed the expected-win total shown above.
WeekOpponentSiteDate / result
1Wake ForestNon-conference · Allegacy Federal Credit Union Stadium · 4M 15–32 · 17% win
AwaySep 37:00 PM EDT · model ↗2
Robert MorrisNon-conference · InfoCision Stadium · 4M 18–34 · 81% win
HomeSep 123:30 PM EDT · model ↗3MinnesotaNon-conference · Huntington Bank Stadium · 4M 17–34 · 18% win
AwaySep 1912:00 PM EDT · model ↗4
UNLVNon-conference · InfoCision Stadium · 4M 32–22 · 28% win
HomeSep 2612:00 AM EDT · model ↗5
Central MichiganConference · Kelly/Shorts Stadium · 4M 21–30 · 31% win
AwayOct 312:00 AM EDT · model ↗6
Eastern MichiganConference · InfoCision Stadium · 4M 28–25 · 44% win
HomeOct 103:30 PM EDT · model ↗7
Miami (OH)Conference · Yager Stadium · 4M 19–31 · 26% win
AwayOct 1712:00 AM EDT · model ↗8
Kent StateConference · Dix Stadium · 4M 24–28 · 43% win
AwayOct 2412:00 AM EDT · model ↗10
OhioConference · InfoCision Stadium · 4M 30–22 · 34% win
HomeNov 37:00 PM EST · model ↗11
Western MichiganConference · InfoCision Stadium · 4M 30–20 · 28% win
HomeNov 107:00 PM EST · model ↗12
MassachusettsConference · Warren McGuirk Alumni Stadium · 4M 28–23 · 62% win
AwayNov 1812:00 AM EST · model ↗13
BuffaloConference · InfoCision Stadium · 4M 25–25 · 50% win
HomeNov 2712:00 PM EST · model ↗
Range of outcomes
The projection is the middle—not the ceiling.
Floor case2 wins
Instability at premium positions turns swing games into losses.
4M midpoint4 wins
The roster performs close to its current power and schedule baseline.
Ceiling case6 wins
Quarterback play and line continuity outperform the preseason prior.
The betting lens
Price and matchup decide the play.
No team is an automatic bet or fade. The goal is to identify when the market's story about Akron diverges from the football conditions required to cover.
The spread is large, the favorite plays slowly, and the game script allows Akron to stay inside the number without chasing points.
The offense must play from behind, protect for long-yardage throws and generate explosives simply to reach the market expectation.
Quarterback efficiency, offensive-line cohesion and whether the defense can get off the field without blitzing itself out of structure.
Season-defining questionWill experienced line play and close-game execution create a MAC breakthrough?