Georgia State 2026 Preview — No. 128 in the 4M 138

The 2026 outlook

Will the roster hold up in the Sun Belt's physical, high-variance weekly environment?

Georgia State opens No. 130 nationally and No. 13 of 14 in the Sun Belt. The 4M baseline rates the roster 15.7 points below an average FBS team on a neutral field and projects 3.6 regular-season wins.

Georgia State begins below the FBS average, so progress should first appear in functional line play, fewer negative snaps and cleaner late-game execution. That does not make this team an automatic fade; large spreads become valuable when the favorite lacks the pace or explosiveness to create margin.

Depth is the central concern. Transfers can raise the first unit quickly, but the two-deep has to hold up across twelve games. The first month should reveal whether the rebuild created real competition or simply moved uncertainty from one position group to another.

The schedule projects among the country's most manageable at No. 112. That creates upside in the win column, but also a pricing trap: the record can improve faster than the underlying team quality, inviting bettors to pay for results that came against limited resistance.

Personnel command center

Who is back, who arrived and who has to matter.

The roster is grouped by continuity because returning snaps and proven transfer production are more useful than raw headcount. “New / unverified” means the player did not match last season's roster or the incoming portal file—not that the player is necessarily a freshman.

Head coachDell McGee4–20 over the available CFBD career window

Staff continuityReturning head coachContinuity is treated as context, not an automatic upgrade.

Portal ledger33 in · 39 outImpact is weighted by rating, position and prior usage.

Position-group modelPremium roles separated.Fifty is FBS average. Quarterback includes the modeled starter probability, not merely the best name in the room.

Quarterback43

Offensive line51

Receivers43

Defensive front52

Secondary95

InKelton Smith Jr.IOL · from Georgia · 3★

InDarius Johnson Jr.CB · from Gardner-Webb · 3★

InMarcus MascollIOL · from Florida · 3★

InChase Allen-JackmanWR · from Washburn · 3★

InDonovan FariaCB · from Gannon · 3★

InConnor JonesOT · from Michigan · 3★

InDeuce LeeS · from Monmouth · 3★

InJordan BrownOT · from Arizona · 3★

InToby BoltonCB · from Tennessee Tech · 3★

InRodshaun DorseyWR · from Erskine · 3★

InJaydon HoodLB · from Michigan · 3★

InKeith Adams Jr.RB · from Clemson · 3★

4M player valueHighest-leverage rolesMaximum point value assumes the player is fully unavailable and is reduced by status probability.

QBCameran Brown3.1 pts56% starter · usage + PPA + WEPA + roster continuity + QB starter probability

QBAyden Pereira2.2 pts43% starter · usage + PPA + portal role + QB starter probability

RBSavion Hart0.7 pts80% expected role · usage + PPA + portal role

TEGrant Hollier0.7 pts53% expected role · usage + PPA + roster continuity

WRJaylin Marshall0.7 pts48% expected role · usage + PPA + roster continuity

WRDJ Riles0.7 pts50% expected role · usage + PPA + roster continuity

Find a player

PlayerPos.4M valueSizeContinuity

#2Ayden PereiraAuburn, NHQB2.2 pts43% starter · 64% conf.5′11″ · 205 lbTransfer infrom Merrimack

#28Savion HartMinneapolis, MNRB0.7 pts80% role · 64% conf.5′9″ · 190 lbTransfer infrom Georgetown

#12Darius Johnson Jr.Watkinsville, GACB0.6 pts45% role · 64% conf.5′10″ · 180 lbTransfer infrom Gardner-Webb

#7Owen DupreeDallas, GAWR0.6 pts47% role · 64% conf.6′3″ · 190 lbTransfer infrom West Georgia

#11Matt BuronBridgewater, MATE0.5 pts40% role · 64% conf.6′5″ · 260 lbTransfer infrom Fordham

#73Deylin HasertMarshall, MNOL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 305 lbTransfer infrom Iowa State

#55Gage StanalandTuscola, TXOL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 310 lbTransfer infrom Oklahoma State

#76Jordan BrownLong Beach, CAOL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 330 lbTransfer infrom Arizona

#72Kelton SmithColumbus, GAOL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 305 lbTransfer infrom Georgia

#75Marcus MascollSnellville, GAOL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 310 lbTransfer infrom Florida

#68Peter DiazEaston, PAOL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 320 lbTransfer infrom Shippensburg

#58Kelze HowardLas Vegas, NVDE0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 260 lbTransfer infrom Oregon State

#99Mandjou BerteSnellville, GADT0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 310 lbTransfer infrom Wingate

#21Jaylen PoeDallas, GARB0.4 pts48% role · 64% conf.5′10″ · 210 lbTransfer infrom Northern Illinois

#9Chase Allen-JackmanFayette, MOWR0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 195 lbTransfer infrom Washburn

#17Isaiah StoneSmyrna, GAWR0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 170 lbTransfer infrom LSU

#83Rodshaun DorseyAndrews, SCWR0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 210 lbTransfer infrom Erskine

#18Andre JocelynFort Myers, FLCB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 190 lbTransfer infrom Benedict

#23Braylon AlexanderSugar Hill, GACB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 175 lbTransfer infrom Washburn

#11Toby BoltonAthens, GACB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 185 lbTransfer infrom Tennessee Tech

#8Deuce LeeSilver Spring, MDS0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 195 lbTransfer infrom Monmouth

#13Donovan FariaLand O Lakes, FLS0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 190 lbTransfer infrom Gannon

#16Keenan NelsonPhiladelphia, PAS0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 200 lbTransfer infrom Ohio State

#15Tre MittmanDurham, NCS0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 205 lbTransfer infrom North Carolina A&T

#34Jaydon HoodWest Palm Beach, FLLB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 220 lbTransfer infrom Michigan

#30Ryan GreenAthens, GALB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 225 lbTransfer infrom Wingate

#5Lanear McCrary Jr.Rockmart, GARB0.3 pts38% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 200 lbTransfer infrom Shorter

#39Samer LayousAlpharetta, GAPK0.3 pts38% role · 40% conf.5′7″ · 155 lbTransfer infrom Marist

#14Christian TeeterColumbia, SCP0.3 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′7″ · 220 lbTransfer infrom Wingate

#8Cameran BrownWarner Robins, GAQB3.1 pts56% starter · 76% conf.6′2″ · 230 lbReturning

#85Grant HollierWoodstock, GATE0.7 pts53% role · 64% conf.6′3″ · 225 lbReturning

#16Jaylin MarshallHamilton, GAWR0.7 pts48% role · 64% conf.5′11″ · 170 lbReturning

#10DJ RilesColumbus, GAWR0.7 pts50% role · 64% conf.5′11″ · 200 lbReturning

#13Derrick Avery Jr.Alpharetta, GAWR0.6 pts50% role · 64% conf.6′0″ · 195 lbReturning

#66Braylin RobertsNewnan, GAOT0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 310 lbReturning

#52Donovan FunschPerry, GAOT0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′6″ · 320 lbReturning

#71Aidan AndrewsGriffin, GAOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 295 lbReturning

#56Deandre DuffusHollywood, FLOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 330 lbReturning

#65Hunter BrittLawrenceville, GAOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 315 lbReturning

#53Malik JacksonAtlanta, GAOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 300 lbReturning

#74Pherleski MartinSnellville, GAOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 320 lbReturning

#54Tyhler WilliamsAlpharetta, GAOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 315 lbReturning

#1Jabriel Rhodes-NelsonPhiladelphia, PADE0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 270 lbReturning

#95Richard KramerPort Saint Lucie, FLDE0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 250 lbReturning

#59Abdul MohammedLilburn, GADT0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 280 lbReturning

#52Alex MullingsDemopolis, ALDT0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 285 lbReturning

#59Gabriel ChigwereMilton, GADT0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 275 lbReturning

#96Jalen JordanAtlanta, GADT0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 290 lbReturning

#0Jonah ReederMoreno Valley, CADT0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 310 lbReturning

#4Kyle WashingtonHollywood, FLWR0.6 pts49% role · 64% conf.5′8″ · 175 lbReturning

#0Dennis Murray Jr.Daytona Beach, FLRB0.5 pts53% role · 64% conf.5′9″ · 170 lbReturning

#81Avion McBrideFlorence, SCTE0.5 pts53% role · 64% conf.6′5″ · 245 lbReturning

#80Ahmed SouareLoganville, GAWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 205 lbReturning

#89Amari PowellCairo, GAWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 200 lbReturning

#87Austin McGeeWatkinsville, GAWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′8″ · 160 lbReturning

#18D'Ontae FultonSylvester, GAWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 155 lbReturning

#19Jamari MillerOpelika, ALWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′9″ · 155 lbReturning

#86Keron MiltonHometown not listedWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 165 lbReturning

#38Khalil QuinnWarner Robins, GAWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′9″ · 180 lbReturning

#44Kyle MullenixWoodstock, GATE0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′6″ · 240 lbReturning

#6Wesley Campbell VIFairburn, GATE0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 230 lbReturning

#42Tylan SmithHometown not listedCB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 190 lbReturning

#32Tyson McCraryMarietta, GACB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 180 lbReturning

#38Christon JonesLawrenceville, GAS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 185 lbReturning

#3Demonte GastonPensacola, FLS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 210 lbReturning

#21Derrick Maxey IIIAtlanta, GAS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 170 lbReturning

#7Deuce WalkerSalisbury, NCS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 190 lbReturning

#17Joseph HoltBirmingham, ALS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 190 lbReturning

#22Ty SneadEast Dublin, GAS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 215 lbReturning

#55Antonio WesleyHometown not listedLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′9″ · 205 lbReturning

#47Chandler CovingtonLoganville, GALB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 210 lbReturning

#20Coby OwensSaltillo, MSLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 215 lbReturning

#45Kelan ButlerJefferson, GALB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 240 lbReturning

#46Sean AdemokunLawrenceville, GALB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 225 lbReturning

#27Tyler MooreOpelika, ALLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 230 lbReturning

#33Zachary DavisHomestead, FLLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 230 lbReturning

#43Zion LawsonAtlanta, GALB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 240 lbReturning

#20Jamal Bing Jr.Savannah, GARB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′8″ · 170 lbReturning

#32Ladainnian MartinGreer, SCRB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 180 lbReturning

#25Tayo AshadeleSugar Hill, GARB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 210 lbReturning

#12Jadon OlafssonTampa, FLQB0.2 pts4% starter · 40% conf.5′9″ · 175 lbReturning

#14TJ StanleyLyons, GAQB0.2 pts4% starter · 40% conf.6′2″ · 215 lbReturning

#58Maxwell RobinsonDerby, KSOT0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 290 lbNew / unverified

#57Kadorian BenjaminSwainsboro, GAOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′5″ · 320 lbNew / unverified

#70Matthew GrowBuford, GAOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′6″ · 305 lbNew / unverified

#51TJ WhitfieldColumbus, GAOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 295 lbNew / unverified

#93Aaron MooreMobile, ALDE0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 260 lbNew / unverified

#44Freddie WilsonPort Orange, FLDE0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 255 lbNew / unverified

#97Isaac TolliverCumming, GADE0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 230 lbNew / unverified

#49Timothy DaileyDallas, GADE0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 275 lbNew / unverified

#92AJ VaughnsMemphis, TNDT0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′5″ · 315 lbNew / unverified

#94Eli RichardsHoschton, GADT0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 300 lbNew / unverified

#98Jimyll LundyValdosta, GADT0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′11″ · 285 lbNew / unverified

#98Samuel ChukwurahBellflower, CADT0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 330 lbNew / unverified

#90Zamar McGeeColumbus, GADT0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 305 lbNew / unverified

#91Tyrese CatheyIndependence, MSDL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 275 lbNew / unverified

#82Zach StairAtlanta, GAWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 195 lbNew / unverified

#39Cade DuttonFolsom, CACB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 175 lbNew / unverified

#26Jacorey WalkerRiverdale, GACB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′9″ · 165 lbNew / unverified

#24Malique HarrellSaint Petersburg, FLCB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′11″ · 170 lbNew / unverified

#25Monterrius EcholsPhenix City, ALCB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′11″ · 170 lbNew / unverified

#31Ry'Sheed FullerMoultrie, GACB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′9″ · 155 lbNew / unverified

#9Eric Butler Jr.Olathe, KSLB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 230 lbNew / unverified

#28Jaden KellyDallas, TXLB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 215 lbNew / unverified

#35Khalid FelizOrlando, FLLB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 230 lbNew / unverified

#4Xavier EsquillienCharlotte, NCLB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 250 lbNew / unverified

#48Zach AdamsAtlanta, GALB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 210 lbNew / unverified

#15Gavin NuckollsRocky Face, GAQB0.2 pts4% starter · 28% conf.5′11″ · 170 lbNew / unverified

#24Qwantavius WigginsFairburn, GARB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′11″ · 200 lbNew / unverified

#22Xavier ButlerLithonia, GARB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′8″ · 180 lbNew / unverified

#26Balint VorosmartyRoswell, GAPK0.1 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′8″ · 185 lbNew / unverified

#35Landon VargasCarrollton, GAPK0.1 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 180 lbNew / unverified

#36Braxton KitchensCartersville, GALS0.1 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 200 lbNew / unverified

#60Jackson TolleyMcdonough, GALS0.1 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′5″ · 200 lbNew / unverified

2026 schedule

The path that shapes the projection.

The model prices every scheduled game individually. Home field, neutral sites, completed results and opponent rating feed the expected-win total shown above.

WeekOpponentSiteDate / result

North Carolina A&TNon-conference · Center Parc Stadium · 4M 18–35 · 82% win

HomeSep 47:00 PM EDT · model ↗2

Kennesaw StateNon-conference · Fifth Third Stadium · 4M 23–31 · 34% win

AwaySep 127:00 PM EDT · model ↗3

UCFNon-conference · FBC Mortgage Stadium · 4M 19–32 · 24% win

AwaySep 197:00 PM EDT · model ↗4

Northern IllinoisNon-conference · Center Parc Stadium · 4M 25–26 · 52% win

HomeSep 2612:00 AM EDT · model ↗5

Old DominionConference · Center Parc Stadium · 4M 30–20 · 29% win

HomeOct 312:00 AM EDT · model ↗7

James MadisonConference · Bridgeforth Stadium · 4M 18–34 · 19% win

AwayOct 1712:00 AM EDT · model ↗8

Arkansas StateConference · Centennial Bank Stadium · 4M 23–29 · 38% win

AwayOct 247:00 PM EDT · model ↗9

Coastal CarolinaConference · Center Parc Stadium · 4M 27–26 · 46% win

HomeOct 3112:00 AM EDT · model ↗10

App StateConference · Kidd Brewer Stadium · 4M 25–28 · 42% win

AwayNov 712:00 AM EST · model ↗11

Georgia SouthernConference · Center Parc Stadium · 4M 29–26 · 42% win

HomeNov 1412:00 AM EST · model ↗12

MarshallConference · Joan C. Edwards Stadium · 4M 21–32 · 28% win

AwayNov 2112:00 AM EST · model ↗13

LouisianaConference · Center Parc Stadium · 4M 28–25 · 44% win

HomeNov 2812:00 AM EST · model ↗

Range of outcomes

The projection is the middle—not the ceiling.

Floor case1 wins

Instability at premium positions turns swing games into losses.

4M midpoint4 wins

The roster performs close to its current power and schedule baseline.

Ceiling case6 wins

Quarterback play and line continuity outperform the preseason prior.

The betting lens

Price and matchup decide the play.

No team is an automatic bet or fade. The goal is to identify when the market's story about Georgia State diverges from the football conditions required to cover.

Back them when

The spread is large, the favorite plays slowly, and the game script allows Georgia State to stay inside the number without chasing points.

Pass or fade when

The offense must play from behind, protect for long-yardage throws and generate explosives simply to reach the market expectation.

Watch first

Quarterback efficiency, offensive-line cohesion and whether the defense can get off the field without blitzing itself out of structure.

Season-defining questionWill the roster hold up in the Sun Belt's physical, high-variance weekly environment?