The 2026 outlook
Can this team turn a manageable schedule into a real Conference USA title path?
Liberty opens No. 92 nationally and No. 2 of 10 in the CUSA. The 4M baseline rates the roster 5.8 points below an average FBS team on a neutral field and projects 5.7 regular-season wins.
Liberty profiles as competitive but opponent-sensitive. It can win when the matchup protects its weak points, yet it does not have enough week-to-week talent separation to survive poor early-down offense, lost field position and a negative turnover margin at the same time.
Depth is the central concern. Transfers can raise the first unit quickly, but the two-deep has to hold up across twelve games. The first month should reveal whether the rebuild created real competition or simply moved uncertainty from one position group to another.
The schedule projects among the country's most manageable at No. 137. That creates upside in the win column, but also a pricing trap: the record can improve faster than the underlying team quality, inviting bettors to pay for results that came against limited resistance.
Personnel command center
Who is back, who arrived and who has to matter.
The roster is grouped by continuity because returning snaps and proven transfer production are more useful than raw headcount. “New / unverified” means the player did not match last season's roster or the incoming portal file—not that the player is necessarily a freshman.
Head coachJamey Chadwell45–18 over the available CFBD career window
Staff continuityReturning head coachContinuity is treated as context, not an automatic upgrade.
Portal ledger26 in · 20 outImpact is weighted by rating, position and prior usage.
Position-group modelPremium roles separated.Fifty is FBS average. Quarterback includes the modeled starter probability, not merely the best name in the room.
4M player valueHighest-leverage rolesMaximum point value assumes the player is fully unavailable and is reduced by status probability.
PlayerPos.4M valueSizeContinuity
#53Alex BirchmeierAshburn, VAOL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 300 lbTransfer infrom Penn State
#58Jude FosterBaton Rouge, LAOL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 290 lbTransfer infrom Ole Miss
#52Kevin EveheRandallstown, MDOL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′6″ · 296 lbTransfer infrom Saint Francis (PA)
#72Val EricksonChicago, ILOL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 320 lbTransfer infrom NC State
#11Terron KellmanClinton, MDRB0.5 pts54% role · 76% conf.5′8″ · 210 lbTransfer infrom Wyoming
#4Kam DavisAlbany, GARB0.5 pts46% role · 64% conf.5′10″ · 224 lbTransfer infrom Florida State
#87LaKelsey Johnson Jr.Desoto, TXTE0.5 pts41% role · 64% conf.6′3″ · 248 lbTransfer infrom Baylor
#55Henry HicksSeaboard, NCDL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 285 lbTransfer infrom Elizabeth City State
#92John CustisChesapeake, VADL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 285 lbTransfer infrom Emory & Henry
#11Lorenzo PayneApopka, FLDL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 245 lbTransfer infrom West Florida
#7Peyton JonesNorfolk, VARB0.5 pts50% role · 64% conf.5′10″ · 195 lbTransfer infrom Duke
#2Makai JacksonLevittown, PAWR0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 200 lbTransfer infrom Indiana
#19Refeno VangatesMiami, FLWR0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 195 lbTransfer infrom North Carolina Central
#84Breckan KirbyGainesville, GATE0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 220 lbTransfer infrom North Greenville
#29Justin MarshallChicago, ILRB0.4 pts53% role · 76% conf.5′10″ · 190 lbTransfer infrom Colorado State
#21Ashton McShaneDallas, TXCB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 194 lbTransfer infrom Boston College
#14Elijah McKenzieBrooklyn Park, MDCB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 170 lbTransfer infrom Bowie State
#16Tyrell GaineyOrlando, FLCB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 175 lbTransfer infrom Albany State
#3Ashton WhitnerGreenville, SCS0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 196 lbTransfer infrom Ball State
#0D-Icey HopkinsMacon, GAS0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 195 lbTransfer infrom Georgia State
#7Izaiah GuyOcala, FLS0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 200 lbTransfer infrom South Florida
#6Kanye UdohMays Landing, NJRB0.4 pts53% role · 76% conf.6′1″ · 220 lbTransfer infrom Arizona State
#22Kyle FermLos Angeles, CALB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 232 lbTransfer infrom SMU
#41Greg RiveraLos Gatos, CALS0.3 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 225 lbTransfer infrom Grambling
#5Deshawn PurdieBaltimore, MDQB0.2 pts5% starter · 76% conf.6′4″ · 228 lbTransfer infrom Wake Forest
#13Jaylen HendersonLos Angeles, CAQB0.2 pts4% starter · 64% conf.6′3″ · 227 lbTransfer infrom West Virginia
#15Ethan VaskoChesapeake, VAQB4.4 pts88% starter · 76% conf.6′3″ · 220 lbReturning
#3Jamari PersonNashville, TNWR0.7 pts54% role · 64% conf.6′1″ · 200 lbReturning
#48Caleb RyanBellingham, WATE0.7 pts47% role · 64% conf.6′2″ · 240 lbReturning
#61Aaron FenimoreSenoia, GAOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 295 lbReturning
#70Austin AndersonBowling Green, KYOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 300 lbReturning
#59Brandon EdozieWoodbridge, VAOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′6″ · 275 lbReturning
#56Christian WilliamsHouston, TXOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 310 lbReturning
#51D.J. GethSpartanburg, SCOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 295 lbReturning
#66Erwil Anthony Jr.Kannapolis, NCOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 285 lbReturning
#76Gabe SmithMilton, GAOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 300 lbReturning
#60Joep EngbersOak Park, ILOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 305 lbReturning
#18Aaron HesterJacksonville, FLDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 245 lbReturning
#50Gavin AskewPowder Springs, GADL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 240 lbReturning
#44Joe StricklandIndianapolis, INDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 290 lbReturning
#88Kam CullinsKennesaw, GADL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 270 lbReturning
#15Markus ClarkHoover, ALDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 295 lbReturning
#97Mike JarvisMedford, NJDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 295 lbReturning
#94Nathan PirolliHuntersville, NCDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 285 lbReturning
#56Samuel CohenRichmond, VADL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 245 lbReturning
#16Eric SmithRichmond, VAWR0.5 pts49% role · 64% conf.5′9″ · 170 lbReturning
#0Jaylon ColemanHouma, LARB0.5 pts51% role · 64% conf.5′9″ · 155 lbReturning
#9Bryce RandolphWesley Chapel, FLWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 180 lbReturning
#27Clayton SheplerRoswell, GAWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 180 lbReturning
#10Jon MonteiroRandolph, MAWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 200 lbReturning
#8Nasir NewkirkGreensboro, NCWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 185 lbReturning
#17Bo BurklowBrentwood, TNTE0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 250 lbReturning
#5Elijah HopkinsOcala, FLCB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 195 lbReturning
#28Jamal MilesPelham, ALCB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 180 lbReturning
#2Jiquavious MarshallMacon, GACB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 180 lbReturning
#23Myke GunnAuburn, ALCB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 180 lbReturning
#19Jayden WhaleyJames Island, SCS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 185 lbReturning
#10Ronald Moore Jr.Griffin, GAS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 195 lbReturning
#1Darius CopelandBirmingham, ALWR0.5 pts47% role · 64% conf.6′0″ · 195 lbReturning
#33Aidan VaughanWixom, MILB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 220 lbReturning
#1Derrell FarrarLoganville, GALB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 225 lbReturning
#9Deuce SpurlockMadison, ALLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 225 lbReturning
#6Dillano GlaudClearwater, FLLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 220 lbReturning
#4Micah PollardJacksonville, FLLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 235 lbReturning
#38Tre LawingAppomattox, VALB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 200 lbReturning
#8Brenton WilliamsOpelika, ALRB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 260 lbReturning
#30Ethan CrispMount Juliet, TNRB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 235 lbReturning
#26Jaylin BelfordLynchburg, VARB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′8″ · 175 lbReturning
#95Jeffrey Hairston Jr.Rocky Mount, VARB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 225 lbReturning
#49Sam CrossanBear, DEPK0.3 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 260 lbReturning
#98Tyler BlackGoochland, VAPK0.3 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′9″ · 190 lbReturning
#45Cayden ComerDallas, GALS0.3 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 220 lbReturning
#14Ethan HouckBrunswick, MDQB0.2 pts4% starter · 64% conf.6′4″ · 205 lbReturning
#12Rashawn CunninghamInman, SCWR0.5 pts33% role · 52% conf.6′2″ · 205 lbNew / unverified
#62Blake MartinGainesville, VAOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 250 lbNew / unverified
#77Carlton HallSavannah, GAOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 295 lbNew / unverified
#73Curtis DoirilusPhiladelphia, PAOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 335 lbNew / unverified
#63Daniel SchiffertBethlehem, PAOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 295 lbNew / unverified
#64Hunter WinnNorfolk, VAOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′5″ · 305 lbNew / unverified
#78Joseph MorrisHinesville, GAOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′5″ · 290 lbNew / unverified
#65Malcolm GastonNorth Augusta, SCOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 350 lbNew / unverified
#98Austin TremblayLynchburg, VADL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 275 lbNew / unverified
#40Chris LawDanville, VADL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 293 lbNew / unverified
#91Michael FloydeLas Vegas, NVDL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 245 lbNew / unverified
#53Nikodemus ToungerOakton, VADL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 275 lbNew / unverified
#99Xavier ReidBoca Raton, FLDL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′11″ · 265 lbNew / unverified
#28Andrew RymanBealeton, VAWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′10″ · 165 lbNew / unverified
#81Jakobe DeJesusDouglasville, GAWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 190 lbNew / unverified
#89Nathanael DatesWaldorf, MDWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′9″ · 165 lbNew / unverified
#85Kam TaylorSpartanburg, SCTE0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′6″ · 240 lbNew / unverified
#88Zeke WimbushAshburn, VATE0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 235 lbNew / unverified
#20Kennedi BaileyThomson, GACB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 175 lbNew / unverified
#36Anthony SagetPort Saint Lucie, FLS0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′10″ · 175 lbNew / unverified
#25Jaleel ParkerFayetteville, NCS0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′11″ · 205 lbNew / unverified
#17Jayden DavisSuwanee, GAS0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 180 lbNew / unverified
#13Jeremiah VesselLas Vegas, NVS0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′11″ · 190 lbNew / unverified
#26Macaiden BrownSarasota, FLS0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 180 lbNew / unverified
#29Tony ArnettPhenix City, ALS0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 180 lbNew / unverified
#34Ellis AllowayFort Walton Beach, FLLB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 210 lbNew / unverified
#43Matthew KramerWyomissing, PALB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 216 lbNew / unverified
#18Jachin DavisGoose Creek, SCQB0.2 pts4% starter · 28% conf.6′0″ · 195 lbNew / unverified
#23Cam WoodCarrollton, GARB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′8″ · 195 lbNew / unverified
#42Chase ReevesGranite City, ILPK0.1 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 190 lbNew / unverified
#86Nathan DinwiddieOklahoma City, OKPK0.1 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 200 lbNew / unverified
2026 schedule
The path that shapes the projection.
The model prices every scheduled game individually. Home field, neutral sites, completed results and opponent rating feed the expected-win total shown above.
WeekOpponentSiteDate / result
1James MadisonNon-conference · Bridgeforth Stadium · 4M 22–30 · 31% win
AwaySep 512:00 PM EDT · model ↗2
Gardner-WebbNon-conference · Williams Stadium (VA) · 4M 17–36 · 85% win
HomeSep 126:00 PM EDT · model ↗3Ball StateNon-conference · Williams Stadium (VA) · 4M 19–32 · 76% win
HomeSep 194:00 PM EDT · model ↗4
Coastal CarolinaNon-conference · Brooks Stadium (SC) · 4M 28–25 · 56% win
AwaySep 247:30 PM EDT · model ↗5
DelawareConference · Delaware Stadium · 4M 28–26 · 55% win
AwayOct 27:00 PM EDT · model ↗6
Sam HoustonConference · Williams Stadium (VA) · 4M 21–32 · 74% win
HomeOct 87:00 PM EDT · model ↗8
Kennesaw StateConference · Fifth Third Stadium · 4M 28–27 · 52% win
AwayOct 227:00 PM EDT · model ↗9
Florida InternationalConference · Williams Stadium (VA) · 4M 24–30 · 64% win
HomeOct 313:30 PM EDT · model ↗10New Mexico StateConference · Aggie Memorial Stadium · 4M 28–24 · 58% win
AwayNov 75:00 PM EST · model ↗11
Middle TennesseeConference · Williams Stadium (VA) · 4M 23–31 · 68% win
HomeNov 143:30 PM EST · model ↗12
Western KentuckyConference · Williams Stadium (VA) · 4M 26–26 · 51% win
HomeNov 211:00 PM EST · model ↗13
Missouri StateConference · Plaster Sports Complex · 4M 28–26 · 53% win
AwayNov 282:00 PM EST · model ↗
Range of outcomes
The projection is the middle—not the ceiling.
Floor case4 wins
Instability at premium positions turns swing games into losses.
4M midpoint6 wins
The roster performs close to its current power and schedule baseline.
Ceiling case8 wins
Quarterback play and line continuity outperform the preseason prior.
The betting lens
Price and matchup decide the play.
No team is an automatic bet or fade. The goal is to identify when the market's story about Liberty diverges from the football conditions required to cover.
The spread is large, the favorite plays slowly, and the game script allows Liberty to stay inside the number without chasing points.
The offense must play from behind, protect for long-yardage throws and generate explosives simply to reach the market expectation.
Quarterback efficiency, offensive-line cohesion and whether the defense can get off the field without blitzing itself out of structure.
Season-defining questionCan this team turn a manageable schedule into a real Conference USA title path?