The 2026 outlook
Will the roster hold up in the Sun Belt's physical, high-variance weekly environment?
Louisiana Tech opens No. 97 nationally and No. 5 of 14 in the Sun Belt. The 4M baseline rates the roster 6.6 points below an average FBS team on a neutral field and projects 5.3 regular-season wins.
Louisiana Tech profiles as competitive but opponent-sensitive. It can win when the matchup protects its weak points, yet it does not have enough week-to-week talent separation to survive poor early-down offense, lost field position and a negative turnover margin at the same time.
Depth is the central concern. Transfers can raise the first unit quickly, but the two-deep has to hold up across twelve games. The first month should reveal whether the rebuild created real competition or simply moved uncertainty from one position group to another.
The schedule grades No. 81 nationally—enough resistance to expose weaknesses without defining the entire year. A small group of swing games should determine whether Louisiana Tech beats its 5.3-win projection, placing extra value on special teams, fourth-down decisions and late-game quarterback play.
Personnel command center
Who is back, who arrived and who has to matter.
The roster is grouped by continuity because returning snaps and proven transfer production are more useful than raw headcount. “New / unverified” means the player did not match last season's roster or the incoming portal file—not that the player is necessarily a freshman.
Head coachSonny Cumbie21–34 over the available CFBD career window
Staff continuityReturning head coachContinuity is treated as context, not an automatic upgrade.
Portal ledger11 in · 24 outImpact is weighted by rating, position and prior usage.
Position-group modelPremium roles separated.Fifty is FBS average. Quarterback includes the modeled starter probability, not merely the best name in the room.
4M player valueHighest-leverage rolesMaximum point value assumes the player is fully unavailable and is reduced by status probability.
PlayerPos.4M valueSizeContinuity
#6Marcus Calwise Jr.Youngstown, OHWR0.7 pts50% role · 64% conf.5′10″ · 190 lbTransfer infrom Eastern Kentucky
#58Tye HyltonOviedo, FLOL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 290 lbTransfer infrom Florida State
#54Justice WilliamsWesley Chapel, FLDL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 310 lbTransfer infrom West Florida
#86Talyn ShettronEdmond, OKWR0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 195 lbTransfer infrom Oklahoma State
#9Joshua BrantleyRuston, LATE0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 220 lbTransfer infrom Tulane
#5Ahkhari JohnsonTexarkana, TXDB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 191 lbTransfer infrom Arkansas
#17Demario BookhartSpartanburg, SCDB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 175 lbTransfer infrom South Carolina State
#13MJ Moultrie IIFort Lauderdale, FLDB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 195 lbTransfer infrom Hampton
#20Ty JonesHollywood, FLDB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 200 lbTransfer infrom Norfolk State
#28Harrison WilliamsCelina, TXRB0.3 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 185 lbTransfer infrom Harding
#0Jaden MillerMiami, FLRB0.3 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 202 lbTransfer infrom Keiser (Fl)
#5Blake BakerCypress, TXQB3.0 pts57% starter · 76% conf.6′5″ · 220 lbReturning
#2Trey KukukMission Viejo, CAQB2.1 pts42% starter · 76% conf.6′1″ · 201 lbReturning
#84Eli FinleyHeath, TXTE0.8 pts54% role · 64% conf.6′6″ · 246 lbReturning
#8David PierroFresno, CAWR0.7 pts49% role · 64% conf.5′11″ · 185 lbReturning
#11Jalen MickensWillis, TXWR0.6 pts50% role · 64% conf.5′9″ · 187 lbReturning
#15Luke WatkinsProsper, TXWR0.6 pts48% role · 64% conf.6′4″ · 205 lbReturning
#56Andrew RichardCentral, LAOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 304 lbReturning
#79Ashanti ColeCoushatta, LAOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 312 lbReturning
#53Austin EllisWhitehouse, TXOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 305 lbReturning
#78Bryson WeathersWard, AROL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′6″ · 293 lbReturning
#76Cyler CornGroesbeck, TXOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 314 lbReturning
#61Ervin SmithBaton Rouge, LAOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 292 lbReturning
#72Hayden ChristmanTioga, LAOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′6″ · 331 lbReturning
#60Roy Brackins IIIBaton Rouge, LAOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 308 lbReturning
#50Tazio RossoSt. Mary's, GAOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 271 lbReturning
#52Troy Smith IIINew Orleans, LAOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 301 lbReturning
#66Will HutchensLindale, TXOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 305 lbReturning
#17Dane BenedixMission Viejo, CAWR0.6 pts48% role · 64% conf.6′0″ · 195 lbReturning
#51Amery EdwardsAlexandria, LADL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 285 lbReturning
#46Daylin PageHattiesburg, MSDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 236 lbReturning
#98Donovan RiemanEnid, OKDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 265 lbReturning
#11Emmanuel OgunsAlief, TXDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 260 lbReturning
#93Jacob BradfordPass Christian, MSDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 290 lbReturning
#90Jojo OdomParrish, ALDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 265 lbReturning
#99Judd RouyeaBaton Rouge, LADL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 267 lbReturning
#44Kaleb ColemanTrophy Club, TXDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 255 lbReturning
#92Lane CondryBroken Arrow, OKDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 270 lbReturning
#87Brayden BocklerSan Juan Capistrano, CATE0.5 pts47% role · 64% conf.6′4″ · 237 lbReturning
#3Dedrick LatulasNew Iberia, LAWR0.5 pts48% role · 64% conf.5′7″ · 165 lbReturning
#31Brayden CurryShreveport, LAWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′7″ · 161 lbReturning
#89Chase GrosfeldCypress, CAWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 200 lbReturning
#47Jay WilkersonMidlothian, TXWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 175 lbReturning
#88Johnnie Thiel IVDestrehan, LAWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 175 lbReturning
#80Deven MunizWest Covina, CATE0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 223 lbReturning
#82Luke SeibBlue Springs, MOTE0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 220 lbReturning
#2Amari ButlerPetal, MSDB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 186 lbReturning
#39Jacoryian CroweRuston, LADB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 175 lbReturning
#18Jaitlin HamptonLancaster, TXDB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 170 lbReturning
#24Javari LockhartMonroe, LADB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 170 lbReturning
#0Jordan McRaeMcRae, GADB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 180 lbReturning
#4Kam FranklinOak Grove, LADB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 211 lbReturning
#3Kameron CarterNatchez, MSDB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 175 lbReturning
#1Sam FongangMansfield, TXDB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 195 lbReturning
#37Zachary JacksonMonroe, LADB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 170 lbReturning
#23Alonzo Jackson Jr.Haynesville, LALB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 227 lbReturning
#35Cole WatsonMarshall, TXLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 220 lbReturning
#25Colton DeckardMuenster, TXLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 220 lbReturning
#22Jadon MayfieldRuston, LALB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 225 lbReturning
#49James PredtechenskisRichardson, TXLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 200 lbReturning
#33Jaylon ParnellPascagoula, MSLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 224 lbReturning
#10Kolbe FieldsNew Orleans, LALB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 225 lbReturning
#36Zander HayesRuston, LALB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 194 lbReturning
#21Zheric HillGrambling, LALB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 230 lbReturning
#26Dylone BrooksRuston, LARB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 200 lbReturning
#36Riley SmallGonzales, LARB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 190 lbReturning
#38Kaegan KentShreveport, LAPK0.3 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′8″ · 160 lbReturning
#29Lexington MatthewsAtlanta, GAP0.3 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 196 lbReturning
#41Ean BurchShreveport, LALS0.3 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 215 lbReturning
#59Jake RiggsHomer, LALS0.3 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 188 lbReturning
#7Jackson BradleyOak Grove, LAQB0.2 pts4% starter · 40% conf.6′3″ · 220 lbReturning
#19Mason WelchShreveport, LAQB0.2 pts4% starter · 40% conf.6′5″ · 227 lbReturning
#77Aric AdcockFort Worth, TXOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 290 lbNew / unverified
#73Jackson SpeerShreveport, LAOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′5″ · 280 lbNew / unverified
#75Jacob McRaeAllen, TXOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′5″ · 285 lbNew / unverified
#74Jamon Lee Jr.New Iberia, LAOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 300 lbNew / unverified
#63Kaleb CampbellLafayette, LAOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′7″ · 305 lbNew / unverified
#57Tadan BinghamHouma, LAOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′5″ · 290 lbNew / unverified
#94Amari WilksPearland, TXDL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 240 lbNew / unverified
#96Ashton DawsonShreveport, LADL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 285 lbNew / unverified
#48Kaden McIverOakland, CADL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 230 lbNew / unverified
#91Za'Qwaun NunnHouston, TXDL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 285 lbNew / unverified
#83Carter HarrisAllen, TXWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 190 lbNew / unverified
#85Johnny Casey Jr.Shreveport, LAWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′9″ · 165 lbNew / unverified
#45Skylar KirkAledo, TXTE0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 235 lbNew / unverified
#81William MayesKaty, TXTE0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′6″ · 240 lbNew / unverified
#19AJ TarvinHattiesburg, MSDB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 175 lbNew / unverified
#14Damien Richard IIDestrehan, LADB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 170 lbNew / unverified
#32Emanual CollinsYoungsville, LADB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′11″ · 170 lbNew / unverified
#15Franklin Morgan Jr.Amite, LADB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′10″ · 170 lbNew / unverified
#41Jake KimEnglewood, CODB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′11″ · 175 lbNew / unverified
#7Janard LockhardtBaltimore, MDDB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 180 lbNew / unverified
#43Justin ThomasBlanchard, LADB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′11″ · 165 lbNew / unverified
#26Nathan GreenShreveport, LADB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′11″ · 175 lbNew / unverified
#16Taeden RogersLos Alamitos, CADB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 170 lbNew / unverified
#40Ayden CombsCypress, TXLB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 220 lbNew / unverified
#27Grayson HardySulphur Springs, TXLB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 215 lbNew / unverified
#28Jeremiah SmithKaty, TXLB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 220 lbNew / unverified
#45Nate JacksonTulsa, OKLB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 230 lbNew / unverified
#14Brady VodickaEnglewood, COQB0.2 pts4% starter · 28% conf.6′2″ · 215 lbNew / unverified
#13Michael KirbyZachary, LAQB0.2 pts4% starter · 28% conf.6′2″ · 200 lbNew / unverified
#22Demarcus BeltonAlvarado, TXRB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′11″ · 200 lbNew / unverified
#20Rayshun HurtSan Antonio, TXRB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′10″ · 185 lbNew / unverified
#23Sergio SniderFort Worth, TXRB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′11″ · 200 lbNew / unverified
#46Hunter FoxWest Monroe, LAPK0.1 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 185 lbNew / unverified
#31Hunter RiouxAustin, TXPK0.1 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′10″ · 170 lbNew / unverified
#30Reuben EdwardsMelbourne, VICP0.1 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′6″ · 240 lbNew / unverified
#69Trent SimsSanford, FLLS0.1 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 210 lbNew / unverified
2026 schedule
The path that shapes the projection.
The model prices every scheduled game individually. Home field, neutral sites, completed results and opponent rating feed the expected-win total shown above.
WeekOpponentSiteDate / result
1Northwestern StateNon-conference · Joe Aillet Stadium · 4M 14–37 · 90% win
HomeSep 57:30 PM EDT · model ↗2LSUNon-conference · Tiger Stadium (LA) · 4M 17–33 · 19% win
AwaySep 127:30 PM EDT · model ↗3
BaylorNon-conference · McLane Stadium · 4M 21–31 · 30% win
AwaySep 194:00 PM EDT · model ↗5
ArmyNon-conference · Joe Aillet Stadium · 4M 26–25 · 49% win
HomeOct 312:00 AM EDT · model ↗6
LouisianaConference · Joe Aillet Stadium · 4M 24–28 · 59% win
HomeOct 1012:00 AM EDT · model ↗7
UL MonroeConference · Malone Stadium · 4M 28–23 · 60% win
AwayOct 1712:00 AM EDT · model ↗8
Old DominionConference · Joe Aillet Stadium · 4M 26–23 · 44% win
HomeOct 2412:00 AM EDT · model ↗9
South AlabamaConference · Hancock Whitney Stadium · 4M 26–26 · 50% win
AwayOct 3112:00 AM EDT · model ↗10
TroyConference · Veterans Memorial Stadium (AL) · 4M 25–25 · 50% win
AwayNov 712:00 AM EST · model ↗11
Southern MissConference · Joe Aillet Stadium · 4M 24–27 · 56% win
HomeNov 1412:00 AM EST · model ↗12
Arkansas StateConference · Joe Aillet Stadium · 4M 22–28 · 61% win
HomeNov 2112:00 AM EST · model ↗13
Georgia SouthernConference · Allen E. Paulson Stadium · 4M 27–27 · 49% win
AwayNov 2812:00 AM EST · model ↗
Range of outcomes
The projection is the middle—not the ceiling.
Floor case3 wins
Instability at premium positions turns swing games into losses.
4M midpoint5 wins
The roster performs close to its current power and schedule baseline.
Ceiling case7 wins
Quarterback play and line continuity outperform the preseason prior.
The betting lens
Price and matchup decide the play.
No team is an automatic bet or fade. The goal is to identify when the market's story about Louisiana Tech diverges from the football conditions required to cover.
The spread is large, the favorite plays slowly, and the game script allows Louisiana Tech to stay inside the number without chasing points.
The offense must play from behind, protect for long-yardage throws and generate explosives simply to reach the market expectation.
Quarterback efficiency, offensive-line cohesion and whether the defense can get off the field without blitzing itself out of structure.
Season-defining questionWill the roster hold up in the Sun Belt's physical, high-variance weekly environment?