Jacksonville State 2026 Preview — No. 96 in the 4M 138

The 2026 outlook

Can this team turn a manageable schedule into a real Conference USA title path?

Jacksonville State opens No. 93 nationally and No. 3 of 10 in the CUSA. The 4M baseline rates the roster 6.0 points below an average FBS team on a neutral field and projects 5.7 regular-season wins.

Jacksonville State profiles as competitive but opponent-sensitive. It can win when the matchup protects its weak points, yet it does not have enough week-to-week talent separation to survive poor early-down offense, lost field position and a negative turnover margin at the same time.

Depth is the central concern. Transfers can raise the first unit quickly, but the two-deep has to hold up across twelve games. The first month should reveal whether the rebuild created real competition or simply moved uncertainty from one position group to another.

The schedule projects among the country's most manageable at No. 135. That creates upside in the win column, but also a pricing trap: the record can improve faster than the underlying team quality, inviting bettors to pay for results that came against limited resistance.

Personnel command center

Who is back, who arrived and who has to matter.

The roster is grouped by continuity because returning snaps and proven transfer production are more useful than raw headcount. “New / unverified” means the player did not match last season's roster or the incoming portal file—not that the player is necessarily a freshman.

Head coachCharles Kelly9–5 over the available CFBD career window

Staff continuityReturning head coachContinuity is treated as context, not an automatic upgrade.

Portal ledger21 in · 14 outImpact is weighted by rating, position and prior usage.

Position-group modelPremium roles separated.Fifty is FBS average. Quarterback includes the modeled starter probability, not merely the best name in the room.

Quarterback63

Offensive line51

Receivers53

Defensive front52

Secondary50

InRob Billings IVS · from Clemson · 3★

InCaleb HolmesIOL · from Pittsburgh · 3★

InHadine DiabyIOL · from Nevada · 3★

InRonnel JohnsonWR · from Missouri State · 3★

InVernon Woodward IIICB · from Illinois · 3★

InDarius CannonWR · from Murray State · 3★

InKaden CookCB · from California · 3★

InMarvin StringfellowDL · from Concordia University, St. Paul · 3★

InJamill WilliamsWR · from Albany State · 3★

InAmarii AtchisonOT · from Mercer · 3★

InJackson BunnIOL · from Kentucky · 3★

InCameron StancilOT · from Murray State

4M player valueHighest-leverage rolesMaximum point value assumes the player is fully unavailable and is reduced by status probability.

QBCaden Creel4.7 pts94% starter · usage + PPA + WEPA + roster continuity + QB starter probability

WRDarius Cannon0.8 pts60% expected role · usage + PPA + portal role

WRDeondre Johnson0.8 pts54% expected role · usage + PPA + roster continuity

WRRonnel Johnson0.7 pts49% expected role · usage + PPA + portal role

WRFranklin Baret Jr.0.6 pts47% expected role · usage + PPA + roster continuity

OLDaylan Martin0.6 pts44% expected role · roster continuity

Find a player

PlayerPos.4M valueSizeContinuity

#3Darius CannonGainesville, GAWR0.8 pts60% role · 64% conf.5′9″ · 180 lbTransfer infrom Murray State

#9Ronnel JohnsonMcdonough, GAWR0.7 pts49% role · 64% conf.6′0″ · 180 lbTransfer infrom Missouri State

#74Amarii AtchisonDouglasville, GAOL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′8″ · 300 lbTransfer infrom Mercer

#51Bo BurkesCentreville, ALOL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 305 lbTransfer infrom North Carolina

#65Britin WittForest, VAOL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 300 lbTransfer infrom VMI

#75Caleb HolmesFairburn, GAOL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 300 lbTransfer infrom Pittsburgh

#62Hadine DiabyLoganville, GAOL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 300 lbTransfer infrom Nevada

#55Ryan WalkerAlabaster, ALOL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 285 lbTransfer infrom North Alabama

#99Andrew RumphPalmetto, FLDL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 265 lbTransfer infrom UCF

#14Angel ToombsMilwaukee, WIDL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 260 lbTransfer infrom Wisconsin

#54Jackson BunnOxford, ALDL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 302 lbTransfer infrom Kentucky

#92Marquis HoodDecatur, GADL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 275 lbTransfer infrom North Carolina A&T

#90Marvin StringfellowSt. Louis, MODL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 290 lbTransfer infrom Concordia University, St. Paul

#96Nii AddyMontgomery, ALDL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 300 lbTransfer infrom Harding

#17Jamill WilliamsAtlanta, GAWR0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 170 lbTransfer infrom Albany State

#9Jonavan CarrLakeland, FLCB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 173 lbTransfer infrom Albany State

#18Keiyon TurnerMesa, AZCB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 180 lbTransfer infrom Fort Hays

#6Kaden CookRound Rock, TXS0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 190 lbTransfer infrom California

#5Rob Billings IVMarietta, GAS0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 205 lbTransfer infrom Clemson

#25Vernon Woodward IIIDeLand, FLS0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 200 lbTransfer infrom Illinois

#12Caden CreelFairhope, ALQB4.7 pts94% starter · 76% conf.6′0″ · 200 lbReturning

#11Deondre JohnsonNewburgh, NYWR0.8 pts54% role · 64% conf.6′8″ · 220 lbReturning

#84Franklin Baret Jr.Wake Forest, NCWR0.6 pts47% role · 64% conf.6′4″ · 200 lbReturning

#56Daylan MartinSaraland, ALOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 310 lbReturning

#73J.R. JerniganBrewton, ALOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 270 lbReturning

#70Jeremiah OrrPineland, SCOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 325 lbReturning

#79Lance JohnsonBirmingham, ALOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 290 lbReturning

#50Lucas MrachkovskiyOdenville, ALOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 295 lbReturning

#54Markevian BlakeGainestown, ALOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 295 lbReturning

#72Nate SmithJacksonville, ALOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 265 lbReturning

#57Oliver MaldonadoMiami, FLOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 306 lbReturning

#63Ryland BraggPensacola, FLOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 298 lbReturning

#67Shaun MartinMobile, ALOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 290 lbReturning

#52Storm FainHoover, ALOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 290 lbReturning

#94Jumarion LarryHazlehurst, MSDE0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 260 lbReturning

#28Christopher JohnsonMontgomery, ALDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 290 lbReturning

#93Jawaun CampbellDefuniak Springs, FLDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 282 lbReturning

#44Khurtiss PerryMontgomery, ALDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 280 lbReturning

#97McCade WrightGadsden, ALDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 260 lbReturning

#16Quay HoodDecatur, GADL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 275 lbReturning

#15Tae FloydOcala, FLDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 250 lbReturning

#5Dylan GentryPhenix City, ALWR0.5 pts51% role · 64% conf.5′9″ · 160 lbReturning

#81Gabe GloverDothan, ALWR0.5 pts50% role · 64% conf.6′1″ · 200 lbReturning

#10AJ WatkinsLithonia, GAWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 191 lbReturning

#14Blake WallaceBoca Raton, FLWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 185 lbReturning

#39Bryson RouillierGulf Breeze, FLWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′9″ · 183 lbReturning

#80Cianan WilliamsSalem, ALWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 175 lbReturning

#82Colton PitchfordColumbus, TXWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 190 lbReturning

#86Nabi HoytKarmielWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 195 lbReturning

#18Santonio JonesTuscaloosa, ALWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 165 lbReturning

#9Wyatt SondermanMarietta, GAWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 185 lbReturning

#44Jameson ScissumAttalla, ALTE0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 226 lbReturning

#88Kam BellLeesburg, GATE0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 230 lbReturning

#30Luke GilbertPisgah, ALTE0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 215 lbReturning

#4Shane Payton HodgesNew Orleans, LATE0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 250 lbReturning

#48Wes RyanSt. Petersburg, FLTE0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′7″ · 240 lbReturning

#22Jaheim JenkinsBainbridge, GACB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 190 lbReturning

#8JQ BrooksHueytown, ALCB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 180 lbReturning

#32Micah McCarrollBirmingham, ALCB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′9″ · 170 lbReturning

#10RJ RainerCornelius, NCCB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 180 lbReturning

#23Temarion FosterRiviera Beach, FLCB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 190 lbReturning

#3Tre'Quon FegansAlabaster, ALCB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 190 lbReturning

#26Brice McKenzieHighland Home, ALS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′9″ · 192 lbReturning

#1Caleb NixPhenix City, ALS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 202 lbReturning

#30DJ VinsonMontgomery, ALS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 195 lbReturning

#39Keith ChristeinHoover, ALS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 185 lbReturning

#7Marc WoodsMadison, ALS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 202 lbReturning

#27Riggs DunnTrussville, ALS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 185 lbReturning

#21Justus SavageAtlanta, GARB0.5 pts54% role · 64% conf.5′10″ · 205 lbReturning

#0Andrew PaulDallas, TXRB0.4 pts51% role · 76% conf.6′0″ · 220 lbReturning

#7Khristian LandoCartersville, GARB0.4 pts54% role · 76% conf.6′1″ · 205 lbReturning

#35Aidan ThompsonWinder, GALB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 230 lbReturning

#37Cai MayowaHoover, ALLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 220 lbReturning

#53Ian MitchellPleasant Grove, ALLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 245 lbReturning

#13Jacob CruzAcworth, GALB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 230 lbReturning

#59Mac SandersMcdonough, GALB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 225 lbReturning

#2Morven JosephLakeland, FLLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 220 lbReturning

#0Myles ButlerCarrollton, GALB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 220 lbReturning

#40Walker O'SteenWhite Plains, ALLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 215 lbReturning

#11Walter ReddickThomasville, GALB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 250 lbReturning

#22Lucas FarringtonAtlanta, GARB0.4 pts56% role · 64% conf.5′9″ · 195 lbReturning

#6Jalen LikelyBrewton, ALRB0.3 pts46% role · 64% conf.5′8″ · 190 lbReturning

#97Cleat ForrestAlexandria, ALPK0.3 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′9″ · 165 lbReturning

#37Garrison RippaLocust Grove, GAPK0.3 pts44% role · 52% conf.5′10″ · 205 lbReturning

#87Conor DonaghyBelfastP0.3 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 195 lbReturning

#15Jack MoranHillsborough, NJQB0.2 pts4% starter · 40% conf.6′5″ · 225 lbReturning

#2Kadyn MitchellDothan, ALQB0.2 pts4% starter · 40% conf.5′11″ · 205 lbReturning

#71Cam StancilMadison, MSOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 300 lbNew / unverified

#76JT HowellSavannah, GAOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 305 lbNew / unverified

#58Kendarius BlairBirmingham, ALOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 270 lbNew / unverified

#77Vern FaulkPerry, FLOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 320 lbNew / unverified

#78Will CooperFairhope, ALOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′5″ · 300 lbNew / unverified

#60William HathcockPerry, FLOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 300 lbNew / unverified

#95Jermaine Waters Jr.Cocoa, FLDL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 245 lbNew / unverified

#98Kyten DavisLake City, FLDL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′5″ · 220 lbNew / unverified

#89Camdon PitchfordColumbus, TXWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′9″ · 170 lbNew / unverified

#29Rollie PintoPiedmont, ALWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 200 lbNew / unverified

#87Andrevius SmithMidland City, ALTE0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′7″ · 240 lbNew / unverified

#83David Alpers IIISioux Falls, SDTE0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′6″ · 240 lbNew / unverified

#29Javan AllisonMiami, FLCB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 180 lbNew / unverified

#38Malik HendersonGraceville, FLCB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 170 lbNew / unverified

#17Rodarion JonesAlbany, GACB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 180 lbNew / unverified

#21Tim AnthonyDecatur, GACB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 180 lbNew / unverified

#46Avion WillisWedowee, ALS0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 185 lbNew / unverified

#12Brennan CorePhenix City, ALS0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 185 lbNew / unverified

#49Jay StoneMontgomery, ALS0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′10″ · 172 lbNew / unverified

#19Shondell HarrisMobile, ALS0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′10″ · 174 lbNew / unverified

#24Ty SimsGadsden, ALS0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′8″ · 173 lbNew / unverified

#20Tre'Von PringleThomasville, GADB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 185 lbNew / unverified

#43Austin BouckDestin, FLLB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 195 lbNew / unverified

#36Brayden MatthewsAtlanta, GALB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 210 lbNew / unverified

#42Devin PettwayMobile, ALLB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 215 lbNew / unverified

#34Jameson McColloughAustell, GALB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 215 lbNew / unverified

#47Mario AllowayFort Walton Beach, FLLB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 225 lbNew / unverified

#45Mikey RosaCharleston, SCLB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 245 lbNew / unverified

#48Peyton ConsaulHilton, NYLB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′5″ · 225 lbNew / unverified

#50Shaynadd WhitfieldOxford, ALLB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′11″ · 200 lbNew / unverified

#31Tristan LylesPhenix City, ALLB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 238 lbNew / unverified

#19Donovan MoorheadAkron, OHQB0.2 pts4% starter · 28% conf.6′5″ · 210 lbNew / unverified

#16Noah LeeJacksonville, ALQB0.2 pts4% starter · 28% conf.6′4″ · 205 lbNew / unverified

#24Jacob CornejoCentre, ALRB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 212 lbNew / unverified

#38Jamarious AcklinHuntsville, ALRB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 185 lbNew / unverified

#28Landon WatkinsPisgah, ALRB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′8″ · 170 lbNew / unverified

#20Maurice WinstonWedowee, ALRB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′10″ · 180 lbNew / unverified

#91Greg CasimirHamilton, NJPK0.1 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 220 lbNew / unverified

#41Carter LewisMobile, ALP0.1 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′9″ · 185 lbNew / unverified

#45Dixon MusgroveCumming, GALS0.1 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′5″ · 215 lbNew / unverified

#90Rio HayDripping Springs, TXLS0.1 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 230 lbNew / unverified

2026 schedule

The path that shapes the projection.

The model prices every scheduled game individually. Home field, neutral sites, completed results and opponent rating feed the expected-win total shown above.

WeekOpponentSiteDate / result

North Dakota StateNon-conference · Fargodome · 4M 27–26 · 53% win

AwayAug 295:30 PM EDT · model ↗1

Eastern KentuckyNon-conference · AmFirst Stadium · 4M 18–34 · 82% win

HomeSep 57:00 PM EDT · model ↗2

OhioNon-conference · Peden Stadium · 4M 25–28 · 44% win

AwaySep 126:00 PM EDT · model ↗3

Georgia SouthernNon-conference · AmFirst Stadium · 4M 25–30 · 59% win

HomeSep 197:00 PM EDT · model ↗4

Middle TennesseeConference · AmFirst Stadium · 4M 22–30 · 67% win

HomeSep 267:00 PM EDT · model ↗6

Kennesaw StateConference · Fifth Third Stadium · 4M 27–27 · 50% win

AwayOct 77:00 PM EDT · model ↗7

Florida InternationalConference · AmFirst Stadium · 4M 23–30 · 64% win

HomeOct 138:00 PM EDT · model ↗9

New Mexico StateConference · Aggie Memorial Stadium · 4M 28–23 · 60% win

AwayOct 288:00 PM EDT · model ↗10

Sam HoustonConference · AmFirst Stadium · 4M 20–32 · 74% win

HomeNov 77:00 PM EST · model ↗11

Western KentuckyConference · Houchens Industries-L.T. Smith Stadium · 4M 24–27 · 43% win

AwayNov 143:30 PM EST · model ↗12

Missouri StateConference · AmFirst Stadium · 4M 24–29 · 62% win

HomeNov 212:00 PM EST · model ↗13

DelawareConference · Delaware Stadium · 4M 27–26 · 53% win

AwayNov 283:30 PM EST · model ↗

Range of outcomes

The projection is the middle—not the ceiling.

Floor case4 wins

Instability at premium positions turns swing games into losses.

4M midpoint6 wins

The roster performs close to its current power and schedule baseline.

Ceiling case8 wins

Quarterback play and line continuity outperform the preseason prior.

The betting lens

Price and matchup decide the play.

No team is an automatic bet or fade. The goal is to identify when the market's story about Jacksonville State diverges from the football conditions required to cover.

Back them when

The spread is large, the favorite plays slowly, and the game script allows Jacksonville State to stay inside the number without chasing points.

Pass or fade when

The offense must play from behind, protect for long-yardage throws and generate explosives simply to reach the market expectation.

Watch first

Quarterback efficiency, offensive-line cohesion and whether the defense can get off the field without blitzing itself out of structure.

Season-defining questionCan this team turn a manageable schedule into a real Conference USA title path?