The 2026 outlook
Is there enough week-to-week consistency to turn ACC opportunity into a conference-title run?
Louisville opens No. 25 nationally and No. 3 of 17 in the ACC. The 4M baseline rates the roster 9.8 points above an average FBS team on a neutral field and projects 6.7 regular-season wins.
Louisville grades as a legitimate ranked team capable of punishing an overrated opponent. The distance to the playoff tier is consistency: one empty offensive quarter, a protection failure or a coverage bust can turn a controlled game into a coin flip.
There are enough playable pieces to compete, but the roster needs a dependable identity. Stable quarterback efficiency or an obvious line-of-scrimmage advantage would lift the ceiling. Portal additions matter only if their roles translate into protection, pressure or explosive-play creation.
The schedule grades No. 44 nationally—enough resistance to expose weaknesses without defining the entire year. A small group of swing games should determine whether Louisville beats its 6.7-win projection, placing extra value on special teams, fourth-down decisions and late-game quarterback play.
Personnel command center
Who is back, who arrived and who has to matter.
The roster is grouped by continuity because returning snaps and proven transfer production are more useful than raw headcount. “New / unverified” means the player did not match last season's roster or the incoming portal file—not that the player is necessarily a freshman.
Head coachJeff Brohm45–21 over the available CFBD career window
Staff continuityReturning head coachContinuity is treated as context, not an automatic upgrade.
Portal ledger33 in · 40 outImpact is weighted by rating, position and prior usage.
Position-group modelPremium roles separated.Fifty is FBS average. Quarterback includes the modeled starter probability, not merely the best name in the room.
4M player valueHighest-leverage rolesMaximum point value assumes the player is fully unavailable and is reduced by status probability.
PlayerPos.4M valueSizeContinuity
#11Davin WydnerCocoa, FLQB5.2 pts94% starter · 64% conf.6′5″ · 225 lbTransfer infrom West Georgia
#0Tre RichardsonTopeka, KSWR0.8 pts56% role · 64% conf.5′10″ · 175 lbTransfer infrom Vanderbilt
#86Jackson VothCheney, KSWR0.8 pts53% role · 64% conf.5′11″ · 190 lbTransfer infrom Drake
#80Brody FoleyCincinnati, OHTE0.7 pts47% role · 64% conf.6′6″ · 260 lbTransfer infrom Tulsa
#7Lawayne McCoyMiami, FLWR0.7 pts46% role · 64% conf.6′1″ · 180 lbTransfer infrom Florida State
#85Justyn ReidNewnan, GATE0.5 pts43% role · 64% conf.6′5″ · 260 lbTransfer infrom Tulane
#70Anwar O'NealPhiladelphia, PAOL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 310 lbTransfer infrom Delaware
#71Cason HenryMarietta, GAOL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′6″ · 300 lbTransfer infrom South Carolina
#56Eryx DaughertyBloomfield Hills, MIOL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 310 lbTransfer infrom Boston College
#58Evan WibberleyFort Mitchell, KYOL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 305 lbTransfer infrom Kentucky
#66Johnnie Brown IIILilburn, GAOL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 310 lbTransfer infrom Georgia Southern
#90Daylen RussellMiami, FLDL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 300 lbTransfer infrom Miami
#2Demeco KennedyLexington, KYDL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 305 lbTransfer infrom Purdue
#99Jerod Smith IICorbin, KYDL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 270 lbTransfer infrom Kentucky
#95Joshua DonaldDurham, NCDL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 310 lbTransfer infrom Houston
#96Tommy ZiesmerDanville, KYDL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 300 lbTransfer infrom Eastern Kentucky
#3Tyler ThompsonCary, NCDL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 245 lbTransfer infrom North Carolina
#81Jakob DixonLouisville, KYWR0.5 pts46% role · 64% conf.6′4″ · 215 lbTransfer infrom Eastern Kentucky
—Elizjah LewisSmyrna, DEWR0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 195 lbTransfer infrom Pace
#88Montavin QuisenberryDanville, KYWR0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 180 lbTransfer infrom Kentucky
#12DJ Waller Jr.Youngstown, OHCB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 210 lbTransfer infrom Kentucky
#25Brycen ScottFlorence, SCDB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 195 lbTransfer infrom Elon
#10Kaleb BeasleyNashville, TNDB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 200 lbTransfer infrom Tennessee
#5Koen EntringerWalled Lake, MIDB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 215 lbTransfer infrom Iowa
#28Santana WilsonScottsdale, AZDB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 180 lbTransfer infrom Texas
#4T.J. BanksTuscaloosa, ALDB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 205 lbTransfer infrom Ole Miss
#36Jacob SmithCorbin, KYLB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 235 lbTransfer infrom Kentucky
#24Marquise DavisCleveland, OHRB0.3 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 215 lbTransfer infrom Missouri
—Garth WhiteWestlake Village, CAPK0.3 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 206 lbTransfer infrom Rhode Island
#48Jacob BakerCorbin, KYP0.3 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 215 lbTransfer infrom Eastern Kentucky
#47Ryan ManisWilmington, NCLS0.3 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 225 lbTransfer infrom Liberty
#3Lincoln KienholzPierre, SDQB0.1 pts4% starter · 64% conf.6′2″ · 215 lbTransfer infrom Ohio State
#1Isaac BrownHomestead, FLRB0.7 pts75% role · 76% conf.5′9″ · 190 lbReturning
#5Keyjuan BrownAtlanta, GARB0.7 pts71% role · 76% conf.5′10″ · 215 lbReturning
#18Jaleel SkinnerGreer, SCTE0.7 pts50% role · 64% conf.6′5″ · 230 lbReturning
#32Braxton JenningsAshland, KYRB0.7 pts82% role · 76% conf.5′11″ · 195 lbReturning
#14Kris HughesMorganfield, KYWR0.7 pts48% role · 64% conf.5′11″ · 200 lbReturning
#2TreyShun HurryPalmdale, CAWR0.6 pts50% role · 64% conf.6′2″ · 200 lbReturning
#75Cameron GorinFishers, INOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 295 lbReturning
#65Ellis McAdooOakdale, CTOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′6″ · 295 lbReturning
#61Gradey AnthonyGoshen, KYOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 295 lbReturning
#67James Glover-TysonLouisville, KYOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′6″ · 325 lbReturning
#55Jimmy Williams IIIMiami Gardens, FLOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 300 lbReturning
#53Lance RobinsonCamilla, GAOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 295 lbReturning
#57Naeer JacksonPhiladelphia, PAOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′6″ · 310 lbReturning
#72Sam SecrestGreenwood, INOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 300 lbReturning
#76Tyler FolmarCantonment, FLOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′6″ · 315 lbReturning
#17AJ GreenEllenwood, GADL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′6″ · 250 lbReturning
#93Bailey AbercrombieBirmingham, ALDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 285 lbReturning
#62Chris Jones Jr.Louisville, KYDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 305 lbReturning
#50Clev LubinSuffern, NYDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 260 lbReturning
#94Dillon SmithUnion, KYDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 285 lbReturning
#40Eric HazzardFranklin, TNDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 255 lbReturning
#97Maurice DavisAlbany, GADL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 250 lbReturning
#19Micah CarterLouisville, KYDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′6″ · 265 lbReturning
#49DeVaun JonesLouisville, KYWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′8″ · 175 lbReturning
#82Terrence McWilliams Jr.Indianapolis, INWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 190 lbReturning
#87Dylan MesmanSaline, MITE0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 240 lbReturning
#90Hamilton AtkinsLouisville, KYTE0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 250 lbReturning
#44Travis EganLouisville, KYTE0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 220 lbReturning
#37Anderson MitchellRichmond, KYDB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 190 lbReturning
#20Antonio HarrisLouisville, KYDB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 180 lbReturning
#9Antonio WattsColumbus, GADB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 225 lbReturning
#29Blake RuffinLouisville, KYDB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 205 lbReturning
#31Micah RiceGoshen, KYDB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 200 lbReturning
#13Tayon HollowayVirginia Beach, VADB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 190 lbReturning
#41Caleb MatelauBradenton, FLLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 225 lbReturning
#38Cameron WhiteTampa, FLLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 235 lbReturning
#6Stanquan ClarkMiami, FLLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 240 lbReturning
#11T.J. CapersMiami, FLLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 225 lbReturning
#43Trent CarterJacksonville, FLLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 225 lbReturning
#35Carson HilbertLouisville, KYPK0.3 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 215 lbReturning
#98Nick KellerHometown not listedPK0.3 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 200 lbReturning
#90Adam WinkenhoferBardstown, KYP0.3 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 195 lbReturning
#39Hayden TravelsteadAcworth, GALS0.3 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 210 lbReturning
#17Ryan ZimmermanNoblesville, INQB0.2 pts4% starter · 40% conf.6′6″ · 225 lbReturning
—Bryten CloseCampbellsville, KYOT0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′6″ · 300 lbNew / unverified
#73Ben CorheiValdosta, GAOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′5″ · 300 lbNew / unverified
#78Charlie EdgeworthChattanooga, TNOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′7″ · 320 lbNew / unverified
#74Jarvis StricklandPaducah, KYOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′6″ · 295 lbNew / unverified
—Max MerzFort Thomas, KYOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 310 lbNew / unverified
—Keon WebbTampa, FLDL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′5″ · 300 lbNew / unverified
#98Sam DawsonCrestwood, KYDL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 300 lbNew / unverified
#83DJ WilliamsTampa, FLWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 180 lbNew / unverified
#89Gavin WaddellRolesville, NCWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 180 lbNew / unverified
—Marlon HarbinLouisville, KYWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.— · —New / unverified
#84Payton CookAkron, OHWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 190 lbNew / unverified
#42Rhys DorseyMadison, ALWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′11″ · 195 lbNew / unverified
#15Julius MilesFreeport, FLTE0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′6″ · 220 lbNew / unverified
#26Jordan VannMiddletown, OHS0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 200 lbNew / unverified
#21Jaydin BroadnaxBoca Raton, FLDB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 190 lbNew / unverified
—Jordan GervaisSan Antonio, TXDB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′10″ · 175 lbNew / unverified
#33Kris BrunsonSnellville, GADB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 190 lbNew / unverified
#27Myles NorwoodSt. Louis, MODB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 190 lbNew / unverified
#23Benjamin PerryChicago, ILLB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 215 lbNew / unverified
#34Brady BallartAurora, INLB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 225 lbNew / unverified
#30Taj PowellSpringfield, OHLB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 235 lbNew / unverified
#10Briggs CherryChattanooga, TNQB0.2 pts4% starter · 28% conf.6′4″ · 215 lbNew / unverified
—Mason FieldsEdgewood, KYQB0.2 pts4% starter · 28% conf.6′4″ · 215 lbNew / unverified
#22Lekhy ThompkinsJackson, TNRB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 235 lbNew / unverified
—Bode ShoapsGranville, OHPK0.1 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′10″ · 160 lbNew / unverified
—Drew KegebeinWheaton, ILLS0.1 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′11″ · 210 lbNew / unverified
2026 schedule
The path that shapes the projection.
The model prices every scheduled game individually. Home field, neutral sites, completed results and opponent rating feed the expected-win total shown above.
WeekOpponentSiteDate / result
1Ole MissNon-conference · Nissan Stadium · 4M 24–28 · 42% win
NeutralSep 67:30 PM EDT · model ↗2
VillanovaNon-conference · L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium · 4M 14–37 · 90% win
HomeSep 117:00 PM EDT · model ↗3SMUConference · L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium · 4M 24–27 · 56% win
HomeSep 193:30 PM EDT · model ↗4
Wake ForestConference · L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium · 4M 20–27 · 66% win
HomeSep 2612:00 AM EDT · model ↗5
NC StateConference · Carter-Finley Stadium · 4M 26–25 · 53% win
AwayOct 312:00 AM EDT · model ↗6
Florida StateConference · L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium · 4M 23–28 · 62% win
HomeOct 97:00 PM EDT · model ↗7
SyracuseConference · JMA Wireless Dome · 4M 30–19 · 73% win
AwayOct 1712:00 AM EDT · model ↗9
StanfordConference · L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium · 4M 17–32 · 81% win
HomeOct 3112:00 AM EDT · model ↗10
Georgia TechConference · Bobby Dodd Stadium · 4M 27–25 · 55% win
AwayNov 712:00 AM EST · model ↗11
North CarolinaConference · Kenan Stadium · 4M 29–21 · 67% win
AwayNov 1412:00 AM EST · model ↗12
PittsburghConference · L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium · 4M 22–27 · 61% win
HomeNov 2112:00 AM EST · model ↗13
KentuckyNon-conference · Kroger Field · 4M 26–23 · 57% win
AwayNov 2812:00 AM EST · model ↗
Range of outcomes
The projection is the middle—not the ceiling.
Floor case5 wins
Instability at premium positions turns swing games into losses.
4M midpoint7 wins
The roster performs close to its current power and schedule baseline.
Ceiling case9 wins
Quarterback play and line continuity outperform the preseason prior.
The betting lens
Price and matchup decide the play.
No team is an automatic bet or fade. The goal is to identify when the market's story about Louisville diverges from the football conditions required to cover.
The number is below a full possession and Louisville's best unit attacks a verified opponent weakness.
The case rests on ranking, résumé or home-field narrative rather than a repeatable down-to-down advantage.
Early-down success rate, pressure allowed and defensive explosive-play rate. Two stable categories would justify an upgrade.
Season-defining questionIs there enough week-to-week consistency to turn ACC opportunity into a conference-title run?