The 2026 outlook
Can the roster hold its efficiency when the schedule produces SEC-level stress almost every week?
Vanderbilt opens No. 22 nationally and No. 10 of 16 in the SEC. The 4M baseline rates the roster 11.3 points above an average FBS team on a neutral field and projects 6.1 regular-season wins.
Vanderbilt grades as a legitimate ranked team capable of punishing an overrated opponent. The distance to the playoff tier is consistency: one empty offensive quarter, a protection failure or a coverage bust can turn a controlled game into a coin flip.
There are enough playable pieces to compete, but the roster needs a dependable identity. Stable quarterback efficiency or an obvious line-of-scrimmage advantage would lift the ceiling. Portal additions matter only if their roles translate into protection, pressure or explosive-play creation.
The schedule is a defining variable: it projects No. 18 nationally, with No. 1 representing the hardest slate. Vanderbilt can play good football and still finish below public expectations if it loses the possession battles in its highest-leverage games. This is why the 6.1-win projection may look conservative relative to the power rating.
Personnel command center
Who is back, who arrived and who has to matter.
The roster is grouped by continuity because returning snaps and proven transfer production are more useful than raw headcount. “New / unverified” means the player did not match last season's roster or the incoming portal file—not that the player is necessarily a freshman.
Head coachClark Lea26–36 over the available CFBD career window
Staff continuityReturning head coachContinuity is treated as context, not an automatic upgrade.
Portal ledger18 in · 19 outImpact is weighted by rating, position and prior usage.
Position-group modelPremium roles separated.Fifty is FBS average. Quarterback includes the modeled starter probability, not merely the best name in the room.
4M player valueHighest-leverage rolesMaximum point value assumes the player is fully unavailable and is reduced by status probability.
PlayerPos.4M valueSizeContinuity
#6Ja'Cory ThomasWalker, LAWR0.7 pts54% role · 64% conf.6′3″ · 215 lbTransfer infrom Old Dominion
#8Jayvontay ConnerWinston-Salem, NCTE0.6 pts44% role · 64% conf.6′4″ · 235 lbTransfer infrom East Carolina
#7Cole AdamsOwasso, OKWR0.6 pts41% role · 64% conf.5′10″ · 183 lbTransfer infrom Alabama
#75Beau JohnsonSpring Lake Park, MNOL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′6″ · 305 lbTransfer infrom North Dakota State
#56Lyndon CooperAtlanta, GAOL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 310 lbTransfer infrom Pittsburgh
#65Micah DeBoseMobile, ALOL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 335 lbTransfer infrom Alabama
#10Brian Allen Jr.Lake In The H, ILEDGE0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 264 lbTransfer infrom Iowa
#19CJ JacksonTucker, GAEDGE0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 250 lbTransfer infrom LSU
#17Edwin KolengeMontreal, PQEDGE0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 260 lbTransfer infrom Boston College
#15Mike DiattaAntioch, TNDT0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 295 lbTransfer infrom Oklahoma State
#99Talan CarterOcean Springs, MSDL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 280 lbTransfer infrom Jacksonville State
#18Maurice VeneyPhiladelphia, PATE0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 270 lbTransfer infrom Morehouse
#12Walter TaylorJackson, ALTE0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′7″ · 235 lbTransfer infrom Ball State
#0Cobey SellersHouston, TXCB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 178 lbTransfer infrom Texas A&M
#16Jaylin DaviesRancho Cucamonga, CACB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 180 lbTransfer infrom Oklahoma State
#7Ricardo JonesWarner Robins, GAS0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 200 lbTransfer infrom Clemson
#37Tyler EbelDeForest, WIP0.3 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 252 lbTransfer infrom South Dakota
#54Kaden SchickelFredericksburg, VALS0.3 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 210 lbTransfer infrom Michigan State
#1Blaze BerlowitzCushing, OKQB3.0 pts54% starter · 64% conf.6′3″ · 200 lbReturning
#11Jack ElliottOrland Park, ILQB0.9 pts20% starter · 40% conf.6′0″ · 205 lbReturning
#10Whit MuschampColumbia, SCQB0.9 pts20% starter · 40% conf.6′1″ · 195 lbReturning
#0Junior SherrillNashville, TNWR0.8 pts60% role · 64% conf.5′11″ · 200 lbReturning
#16Cole SpenceRoswell, GATE0.7 pts51% role · 64% conf.6′7″ · 255 lbReturning
#28Sedrick AlexanderAustin, TXRB0.7 pts69% role · 76% conf.5′9″ · 207 lbReturning
#9Brycen ColemanOcean City, MDWR0.6 pts47% role · 64% conf.6′5″ · 215 lbReturning
#15Joseph McVayEarle, ARWR0.6 pts47% role · 64% conf.6′1″ · 200 lbReturning
#5Tristen BrownHouston, TXWR0.6 pts48% role · 64% conf.5′10″ · 185 lbReturning
#13Kayleb BarnettBroken Arrow, OKWR0.6 pts49% role · 64% conf.5′8″ · 155 lbReturning
#70Cade McConnellChoctaw, OKOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 323 lbReturning
#62CJ WilliamsAmityville, NYOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′6″ · 331 lbReturning
#51Clinton AzubuikeLagosOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′8″ · 310 lbReturning
#50Gunner GivensCovington, VAOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 325 lbReturning
#78Keegan WechslerFrisco, TXOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 295 lbReturning
#52Kevo WesleyChicago, ILOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 317 lbReturning
#57Max FisherNashville, TNOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 270 lbReturning
#58Orion IrvingHouston, TXOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′6″ · 310 lbReturning
#71Ted GregoireJersey City, NJOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 330 lbReturning
#22Makhilyn YoungMidland, TXRB0.6 pts56% role · 76% conf.5′10″ · 210 lbReturning
#90Jake StanishNaperville, ILEDGE0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 270 lbReturning
#32Mason CarterJacksonville, FLEDGE0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 251 lbReturning
#29Miles CapersSumter, SCEDGE0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 249 lbReturning
#55Aaron BryantSouthaven, MSDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 320 lbReturning
#94Bradley MannJacksonville, FLDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′6″ · 308 lbReturning
#53Glenn Seabrooks IIIMadison, TNDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 340 lbReturning
#97Hayden BrayAustin, TXDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 277 lbReturning
#5Issa OuattaraCologneDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′7″ · 315 lbReturning
#92Jaylon StoneAthens, GADL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 306 lbReturning
#93Nikhil JeffersonTampa, FLDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 330 lbReturning
#49Simeon BoulwareDacula, GADL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 258 lbReturning
#3Jamezell LassiterProvidence, RIRB0.5 pts48% role · 64% conf.5′8″ · 192 lbReturning
#89Cameran DicksonCorpus Christi, TXWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 185 lbReturning
#80Claiborne RichardsNashville, TNWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 186 lbReturning
#85Lebron HillHammond, INWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 190 lbReturning
#87Ty BurdNashville, TNWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 165 lbReturning
#88Wils JacksonFranklin, TNWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 205 lbReturning
#49Elijah RooneyNew Smyrna Beach, FLTE0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 230 lbReturning
#26Cayden DanielsCordele, GACB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 189 lbReturning
#37Jack WanzungChicago, ILCB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 184 lbReturning
#2Jaylin LackeyAtlanta, GACB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 195 lbReturning
#6Jordan MatthewsBaton Rouge, LACB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 192 lbReturning
#4Martel HightRome, GACB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 188 lbReturning
#46Mustafa DannettNew London, CTCB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 175 lbReturning
#3Carson LawrenceChattanooga, TNS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 212 lbReturning
#8CJ HeardAtlanta, GAS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 210 lbReturning
#21Davin ChandlerBerlin, MDS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 190 lbReturning
#1Dontae CarterCibolo, TXS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 196 lbReturning
#14Jailen RuthHawthorne, FLS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 225 lbReturning
#9Jalen GilbertRound Rock, TXS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 208 lbReturning
#35Payne DanielNashville, TNS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 185 lbReturning
#28Thomas JonesSmyrna, TNS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 195 lbReturning
#12Vanzale HintonChattanooga, TNS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 196 lbReturning
#30Austin HowardBartlett, TNLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 245 lbReturning
#11Bryan LongwellNashville, TNLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 240 lbReturning
#22Bryce CowanTallahassee, FLLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 235 lbReturning
#20Jamison CurtisSaraland, ALLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 238 lbReturning
#18Josiah BroxtonTallahassee, FLLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 220 lbReturning
#24Nick RinaldiDover, MALB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 240 lbReturning
#13Tate HambyWest Monroe, LALB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 208 lbReturning
#45Ty BartholomewNashville, TNLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 235 lbReturning
#44Gabe FisherNashville, TNFB0.4 pts47% role · 64% conf.6′1″ · 245 lbReturning
#24Gabe FieldsSaint Joseph, MORB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 217 lbReturning
#42Jake BalisGranger, INRB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′9″ · 200 lbReturning
#88Brock TaylorKnoxville, TNPK0.3 pts44% role · 52% conf.6′1″ · 165 lbReturning
#47Justin DewersPlano, TXPK0.3 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 195 lbReturning
#79Conor WeaslerKentfield, CAP0.3 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 187 lbReturning
#53Stone OwensTampa, FLLS0.3 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 200 lbReturning
#55George Williams-HaseotesNaples, FLOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 295 lbNew / unverified
#77Michael SmithPicayune, MSOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′6″ · 330 lbNew / unverified
#72Mitchell SmithPicayune, MSOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′6″ · 320 lbNew / unverified
#60Nate FlemingFranklin, TNOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 285 lbNew / unverified
#73Pulelei'ite PrimusMidland, TXOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 355 lbNew / unverified
#54Tripp SkewesDenver, COOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′7″ · 285 lbNew / unverified
#95Jace McCallumConcord, NCEDGE0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 243 lbNew / unverified
#33Myles MillerMadison, MSEDGE0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 255 lbNew / unverified
#51Cameron SteppBel Air, MDDT0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 296 lbNew / unverified
#98Daryl CampbellKaty, TXDT0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 280 lbNew / unverified
#91Noah SigdaFreehold, NYDL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 245 lbNew / unverified
#81Kahden SmithMoundville, ALWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 195 lbNew / unverified
#84Owen CabellNashville, TNWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 201 lbNew / unverified
#82Adam GehmHarmony, PATE0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′6″ · 235 lbNew / unverified
#46Palmer RileyAtherton, CATE0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′5″ · 250 lbNew / unverified
#86Tilden RileyOrangeburg, SCTE0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′5″ · 217 lbNew / unverified
#23Bishop StarlingNashville, TNCB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′9″ · 170 lbNew / unverified
#42Blaine McClureGreenwich, CTCB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 185 lbNew / unverified
#31Jeremy Garner IIRosharon, TXCB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 155 lbNew / unverified
#27Bradley BrownPlano, TXS0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 185 lbNew / unverified
#25Mason LewisQueen Creek, AZS0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 195 lbNew / unverified
#44Daniel Vollmer Jr.Cincinnati, OHLB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 215 lbNew / unverified
#50Kene ObiGates Mills, OHLB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 221 lbNew / unverified
#43Luke D'AliseOak Park, ILLB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 204 lbNew / unverified
#14Drew CowartQueen Creek, AZQB0.2 pts4% starter · 28% conf.6′2″ · 208 lbNew / unverified
#2Jared CurtisNashville, TNQB0.2 pts4% starter · 28% conf.6′3″ · 230 lbNew / unverified
#23Evan HamptonOwensboro, KYRB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 215 lbNew / unverified
#20Izayah LeeLancaster, TXRB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′11″ · 215 lbNew / unverified
#39Joe DanielAuburn, ALPK0.1 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 225 lbNew / unverified
2026 schedule
The path that shapes the projection.
The model prices every scheduled game individually. Home field, neutral sites, completed results and opponent rating feed the expected-win total shown above.
WeekOpponentSiteDate / result
1Austin PeayNon-conference · FirstBank Stadium · 4M 16–40 · 90% win
HomeSep 57:00 PM EDT · model ↗2DelawareNon-conference · FirstBank Stadium · 4M 19–38 · 85% win
HomeSep 124:15 PM EDT · model ↗3
NC StateNon-conference · FirstBank Stadium · 4M 25–31 · 65% win
HomeSep 1912:45 PM EDT · model ↗4
AuburnConference · Jordan-Hare Stadium · 4M 26–27 · 48% win
AwaySep 2612:00 AM EDT · model ↗5
GeorgiaConference · Sanford Stadium · 4M 23–33 · 29% win
AwayOct 312:00 AM EDT · model ↗6
Ole MissConference · FirstBank Stadium · 4M 29–28 · 47% win
HomeOct 1012:00 AM EDT · model ↗7
ArkansasConference · FirstBank Stadium · 4M 25–34 · 68% win
HomeOct 1712:00 AM EDT · model ↗8
KentuckyConference · Kroger Field · 4M 29–25 · 59% win
AwayOct 2412:00 AM EDT · model ↗10
Mississippi StateConference · Davis Wade Stadium · 4M 30–25 · 62% win
AwayNov 712:00 AM EST · model ↗11
AlabamaConference · FirstBank Stadium · 4M 28–27 · 48% win
HomeNov 1412:00 AM EST · model ↗12
FloridaConference · Ben Hill Griffin Stadium · 4M 27–28 · 50% win
AwayNov 2112:00 AM EST · model ↗13
TennesseeConference · FirstBank Stadium · 4M 29–29 · 51% win
HomeNov 2812:00 AM EST · model ↗
Range of outcomes
The projection is the middle—not the ceiling.
Floor case4 wins
Instability at premium positions turns swing games into losses.
4M midpoint6 wins
The roster performs close to its current power and schedule baseline.
Ceiling case8 wins
Quarterback play and line continuity outperform the preseason prior.
The betting lens
Price and matchup decide the play.
No team is an automatic bet or fade. The goal is to identify when the market's story about Vanderbilt diverges from the football conditions required to cover.
The number is below a full possession and Vanderbilt's best unit attacks a verified opponent weakness.
A difficult opponent is paired with short rest, uncertain quarterback availability or a line that assumes best-case continuity.
Early-down success rate, pressure allowed and defensive explosive-play rate. Two stable categories would justify an upgrade.
Season-defining questionCan the roster hold its efficiency when the schedule produces SEC-level stress almost every week?