The 2026 outlook
Can the roster hold its efficiency when the schedule produces SEC-level stress almost every week?
Florida opens No. 28 nationally and No. 12 of 16 in the SEC. The 4M baseline rates the roster 8.8 points above an average FBS team on a neutral field and projects 5.2 regular-season wins.
Florida grades as a legitimate ranked team capable of punishing an overrated opponent. The distance to the playoff tier is consistency: one empty offensive quarter, a protection failure or a coverage bust can turn a controlled game into a coin flip.
There are enough playable pieces to compete, but the roster needs a dependable identity. Stable quarterback efficiency or an obvious line-of-scrimmage advantage would lift the ceiling. Portal additions matter only if their roles translate into protection, pressure or explosive-play creation.
The schedule is a defining variable: it projects No. 6 nationally, with No. 1 representing the hardest slate. Florida can play good football and still finish below public expectations if it loses the possession battles in its highest-leverage games. This is why the 5.2-win projection may look conservative relative to the power rating.
Personnel command center
Who is back, who arrived and who has to matter.
The roster is grouped by continuity because returning snaps and proven transfer production are more useful than raw headcount. “New / unverified” means the player did not match last season's roster or the incoming portal file—not that the player is necessarily a freshman.
Head coachJon Sumrall43–12 over the available CFBD career window
Staff continuityNew head coachReplaces Billy Gonzales
Portal ledger27 in · 36 outImpact is weighted by rating, position and prior usage.
Position-group modelPremium roles separated.Fifty is FBS average. Quarterback includes the modeled starter probability, not merely the best name in the room.
4M player valueHighest-leverage rolesMaximum point value assumes the player is fully unavailable and is reduced by status probability.
PlayerPos.4M valueSizeContinuity
#2Eric Singleton Jr.Atlanta, GAWR0.7 pts58% role · 64% conf.5′10″ · 184 lbTransfer infrom Auburn
#85Evan ChiecaLindenhurst, NYTE0.7 pts49% role · 64% conf.6′4″ · 253 lbTransfer infrom New Haven
#5Micah Mays Jr.West Palm Beach, FLWR0.6 pts50% role · 64% conf.6′1″ · 197 lbTransfer infrom Wake Forest
#3Bailey StocktonBogart, GAWR0.6 pts45% role · 64% conf.5′10″ · 183 lbTransfer infrom Georgia Tech
#24London MontgomeryScranton, PARB0.6 pts69% role · 76% conf.5′10″ · 192 lbTransfer infrom East Carolina
#15Luke HarpringAtlanta, GATE0.6 pts44% role · 64% conf.6′3″ · 237 lbTransfer infrom Georgia Tech
#17Lacota DippreScranton, PATE0.6 pts44% role · 64% conf.6′3″ · 248 lbTransfer infrom James Madison
#12Aaron PhiloBogart, GAQB0.6 pts14% starter · 64% conf.6′1″ · 207 lbTransfer infrom Georgia Tech
#21Evan PryorCornelius, NCRB0.6 pts62% role · 76% conf.5′10″ · 189 lbTransfer infrom Cincinnati
#64Eagan BoyerCornelius, NCOL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′8″ · 306 lbTransfer infrom Penn State
#66Emeka UgorjiOak Cliff, TXOL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 308 lbTransfer infrom Stanford
#52Harrison MooreSouthlake, TXOL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 293 lbTransfer infrom Georgia Tech
#67TJ Shanahan Jr.Orlando, FLOL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 309 lbTransfer infrom Penn State
#93DK KaluMissouri City, TXDL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 309 lbTransfer infrom Baylor
#99Emmanuel OyebadejoManchesterDL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′6″ · 299 lbTransfer infrom Jacksonville State
#98Mason ClintonHattiesburg, MSDL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 293 lbTransfer infrom Southern Miss
#82Ace CiongoliNeedham, MAWR0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 181 lbTransfer infrom Indiana
#19Jaylen LloydOmaha, NEWR0.4 pts42% role · 64% conf.5′10″ · 185 lbTransfer infrom Oklahoma State
#13Jordy LoweryBartow, FLCB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 183 lbTransfer infrom East Carolina
#10Cam DooleyValley, ALS0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 207 lbTransfer infrom Kentucky
#33DJ ColemanMesquite, TXS0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 206 lbTransfer infrom Baylor
#20Kanye ClarkSacramento, CADB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 184 lbTransfer infrom UCLA
#16TJ BullardTampa, FLLB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 213 lbTransfer infrom UCF
#91Patrick DurkinChicago, ILPK0.3 pts38% role · 52% conf.5′11″ · 189 lbTransfer infrom Tulane
#41Liam PadronSaint Augustine, FLPK0.3 pts38% role · 40% conf.5′9″ · 191 lbTransfer infrom Texas A&M
#38Alec ClarkPerthP0.3 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 186 lbTransfer infrom Tulane
#58Hunter SolwoldFallston, MDLS0.3 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 232 lbTransfer infrom Washington
#9Tramell Jones Jr.Jacksonville, FLQB3.1 pts73% starter · 64% conf.6′0″ · 196 lbReturning
#13Jadan BaughAtlanta, GARB0.9 pts94% role · 76% conf.6′1″ · 225 lbReturning
#1Vernell Brown IIIGainesville, FLWR0.8 pts59% role · 64% conf.5′11″ · 178 lbReturning
#6Dallas WilsonTampa, FLWR0.8 pts57% role · 64% conf.6′3″ · 212 lbReturning
#53Bryce LovettRockledge, FLOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 305 lbReturning
#63Caden JonesNew Orleans, LAOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′8″ · 319 lbReturning
#73Daniel Pierre LouisRoyal Palm Beach, FLOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 327 lbReturning
#68Fletcher WestphalLeesburg, VAOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′8″ · 309 lbReturning
#56Jahari MedlockAtlanta, GAOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 309 lbReturning
#50Jason ZandamelaClearwater, FLOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 286 lbReturning
#77Knijeah HarrisPort Saint Lucie, FLOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 308 lbReturning
#76Mark FairclothQuincy, FLOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 312 lbReturning
#71Roderick KearneyJacksonville, FLOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 303 lbReturning
#55TJ Dice Jr.College Park, GAOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 298 lbReturning
#4TJ AbramsFort Myers, FLWR0.6 pts51% role · 64% conf.5′10″ · 198 lbReturning
#90Brendan BettGadsden, ALDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 319 lbReturning
#49Jalen WigginsTallahassee, FLDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 271 lbReturning
#95Jamari LyonsViera, FLDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 312 lbReturning
#91Jeramiah McCloudSylvester, GADL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 294 lbReturning
#97Joseph MbatchouLoganville, GADL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 321 lbReturning
#24Kamran JamesOrlando, FLDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′6″ · 278 lbReturning
#11LJ McCrayDaytona Beach, FLDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′6″ · 277 lbReturning
#92Sebastian ScottWest Palm Beach, FLDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 360 lbReturning
#20Duke ClarkTampa, FLRB0.5 pts53% role · 64% conf.6′2″ · 208 lbReturning
#7Amir JacksonStatesboro, GATE0.5 pts48% role · 64% conf.6′5″ · 232 lbReturning
#14Jaden EdgecombeCocoa, FLWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′8″ · 190 lbReturning
#22Kahleil JacksonHawthorne, FLWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 214 lbReturning
#84Micah JonesMadison, MSTE0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 254 lbReturning
#12Ben Hanks IIIOvertown, FLCB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 186 lbReturning
#25Cormani McClainLakeland, FLCB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 181 lbReturning
#27Dijon JohnsonTampa, FLCB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 202 lbReturning
#6J'Vari FlowersMiami, FLCB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 189 lbReturning
#37Javion ToombsFort Pierce, FLCB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 188 lbReturning
#3Onis KonanbannyLondonCB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 190 lbReturning
#36Vincent Brown Jr.Gainesville, FLCB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′7″ · 168 lbReturning
#43Alfonzo Allen Jr.Miami, FLS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 196 lbReturning
#35Brayden SladeCoconut Creek, FLS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 193 lbReturning
#1Bryce ThorntonCollege Park, GAS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 211 lbReturning
#9Drake StubbsJacksonville, FLS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 203 lbReturning
#2Lagonza HaywardLyons, GAS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 207 lbReturning
#8Aaron ChilesLargo, MDLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 238 lbReturning
#55Charles Emanuel IIIOrlando, FLLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 235 lbReturning
#48Erich SeagerLake Butler, FLLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 233 lbReturning
#29Jaden RobinsonLake City, FLLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 227 lbReturning
#0Jayden WoodsShawnee, KSLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 245 lbReturning
#22Kofi AsareWorcester, MALB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 247 lbReturning
#42Matthew KadeGainesville, FLLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 223 lbReturning
#5Myles GrahamGainesville, FLLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 228 lbReturning
#44Myles JohnsonBrewton, ALLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 232 lbReturning
#17Titus BullardTampa, FLLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 239 lbReturning
#7Ty JacksonFort Lauderdale, FLLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 228 lbReturning
#25Anthony RubioMiami, FLRB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′9″ · 187 lbReturning
#33Brian CasePonte Vedra Beach, FLRB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 212 lbReturning
#27Byron LouisMiramar, FLRB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 195 lbReturning
#34Kelvin JimenezCape Coral, FLRB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 216 lbReturning
#40Brandon RabascoHollywood, FLPK0.3 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 215 lbReturning
#48Nicholas InglisDallas, TXP0.3 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 227 lbReturning
#10Aaron WilliamsOrlando, FLQB0.3 pts6% starter · 40% conf.6′1″ · 206 lbReturning
#16Aidan WarnerWinter Park, FLQB0.3 pts6% starter · 40% conf.6′3″ · 202 lbReturning
#79Chancellor CampbellSt. Petersburg, FLOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′8″ · 318 lbNew / unverified
#59Corey BrownGainesville, FLOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 295 lbNew / unverified
#78Desmond GreenAlvin, SCOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′5″ · 321 lbNew / unverified
#61G'Nivre CarrOcala, FLOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 311 lbNew / unverified
#54Javarii LuckasBelle Glade, FLOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′6″ · 313 lbNew / unverified
#51Tyler ChukuyemDouglasville, GAOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′6″ · 300 lbNew / unverified
#96JaReylan McCoyTupelo, MSDL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′7″ · 268 lbNew / unverified
#40Jayden GrossMadison, MSDL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 246 lbNew / unverified
#94Kendall GuervilFort Myers, FLDL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′5″ · 309 lbNew / unverified
#56Stive-Bentley Keumajou-YonduiHackneyDL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 295 lbNew / unverified
#18Davian GroceFrisco, TXWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 199 lbNew / unverified
#83Justin WilliamsGainesville, FLWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′11″ · 199 lbNew / unverified
#88Marquez DanielTuskegee, ALWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′5″ · 219 lbNew / unverified
#81Mason JordanSarasota, FLWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′9″ · 173 lbNew / unverified
#86Heze KentBrunswick, GATE0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′6″ · 288 lbNew / unverified
#80Jaylen JordonHilliard, FLTE0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′5″ · 247 lbNew / unverified
#89Tripp Brown Jr.Tampa, FLTE0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′5″ · 240 lbNew / unverified
#15CJ BronaughOrlando, FLCB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 183 lbNew / unverified
#21CJ HesterTitusville, FLCB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 192 lbNew / unverified
#23Javier JonesPhoenix, AZCB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 181 lbNew / unverified
#32Eric ParksTampa, FLS0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 193 lbNew / unverified
#34Kaiden HallMilton, FLS0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 210 lbNew / unverified
#30Dylan PurterTuskegee, ALDB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 184 lbNew / unverified
#28Elijah OwensMobile, ALDB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 209 lbNew / unverified
#52Dylan LeightonNew Port Richey, FLLB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 229 lbNew / unverified
#14KJ FordDallas, TXLB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 250 lbNew / unverified
#50Malik MorrisLakeland, FLLB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 246 lbNew / unverified
#11Will GriffinTreasure Island, FLQB0.2 pts4% starter · 28% conf.6′3″ · 219 lbNew / unverified
#47Miller FealyMelbourne, VICP0.1 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 208 lbNew / unverified
#39Carter MillironHoover, ALLS0.1 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′11″ · 236 lbNew / unverified
#54Lincoln AndersonHoover, ALLS0.1 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 243 lbNew / unverified
2026 schedule
The path that shapes the projection.
The model prices every scheduled game individually. Home field, neutral sites, completed results and opponent rating feed the expected-win total shown above.
WeekOpponentSiteDate / result
1Florida AtlanticNon-conference · Ben Hill Griffin Stadium · 4M 19–34 · 79% win
HomeSep 57:45 PM EDT · model ↗2
CampbellNon-conference · Ben Hill Griffin Stadium · 4M 8–44 · 97% win
HomeSep 125:30 PM EDT · model ↗3AuburnConference · Jordan-Hare Stadium · 4M 23–27 · 42% win
AwaySep 197:00 PM EDT · model ↗4
Ole MissConference · Ben Hill Griffin Stadium · 4M 28–25 · 44% win
HomeSep 2612:00 AM EDT · model ↗5
MissouriConference · Memorial Stadium · 4M 22–28 · 38% win
AwayOct 312:00 AM EDT · model ↗6
South CarolinaConference · Ben Hill Griffin Stadium · 4M 24–26 · 56% win
HomeOct 1012:00 AM EDT · model ↗7
TexasConference · DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium · 4M 21–31 · 30% win
AwayOct 1712:00 AM EDT · model ↗9
GeorgiaConference · Mercedes-Benz Stadium · 4M 21–31 · 29% win
NeutralOct 313:30 PM EDT · model ↗10
OklahomaConference · Ben Hill Griffin Stadium · 4M 25–23 · 46% win
HomeNov 712:00 AM EST · model ↗11
KentuckyConference · Kroger Field · 4M 26–24 · 54% win
AwayNov 1412:00 AM EST · model ↗12
VanderbiltConference · Ben Hill Griffin Stadium · 4M 27–28 · 51% win
HomeNov 2112:00 AM EST · model ↗13
Florida StateNon-conference · Doak Campbell Stadium · 4M 26–27 · 48% win
AwayNov 273:30 PM EST · model ↗
Range of outcomes
The projection is the middle—not the ceiling.
Floor case3 wins
Instability at premium positions turns swing games into losses.
4M midpoint5 wins
The roster performs close to its current power and schedule baseline.
Ceiling case7 wins
Quarterback play and line continuity outperform the preseason prior.
The betting lens
Price and matchup decide the play.
No team is an automatic bet or fade. The goal is to identify when the market's story about Florida diverges from the football conditions required to cover.
The number is below a full possession and Florida's best unit attacks a verified opponent weakness.
A difficult opponent is paired with short rest, uncertain quarterback availability or a line that assumes best-case continuity.
Early-down success rate, pressure allowed and defensive explosive-play rate. Two stable categories would justify an upgrade.
Season-defining questionCan the roster hold its efficiency when the schedule produces SEC-level stress almost every week?