The 2026 outlook
Will line play and quarterback consistency survive the Big Ten's deepest tier of contenders?
Michigan State opens No. 81 nationally and No. 18 of 18 in the Big Ten. The 4M baseline rates the roster 3.2 points below an average FBS team on a neutral field and projects 4.3 regular-season wins.
Michigan State profiles as competitive but opponent-sensitive. It can win when the matchup protects its weak points, yet it does not have enough week-to-week talent separation to survive poor early-down offense, lost field position and a negative turnover margin at the same time.
Depth is the central concern. Transfers can raise the first unit quickly, but the two-deep has to hold up across twelve games. The first month should reveal whether the rebuild created real competition or simply moved uncertainty from one position group to another.
The schedule grades No. 22 nationally—enough resistance to expose weaknesses without defining the entire year. A small group of swing games should determine whether Michigan State beats its 4.3-win projection, placing extra value on special teams, fourth-down decisions and late-game quarterback play.
Personnel command center
Who is back, who arrived and who has to matter.
The roster is grouped by continuity because returning snaps and proven transfer production are more useful than raw headcount. “New / unverified” means the player did not match last season's roster or the incoming portal file—not that the player is necessarily a freshman.
Head coachPat Fitzgerald4–20 over the available CFBD career window
Staff continuityNew head coachReplaces Jonathan Smith
Portal ledger28 in · 46 outImpact is weighted by rating, position and prior usage.
Position-group modelPremium roles separated.Fifty is FBS average. Quarterback includes the modeled starter probability, not merely the best name in the room.
4M player valueHighest-leverage rolesMaximum point value assumes the player is fully unavailable and is reduced by status probability.
PlayerPos.4M valueSizeContinuity
#2Cam FancherDayton, OHQB1.7 pts36% starter · 76% conf.6′0″ · 207 lbTransfer infrom UCF
#0Cam EdwardsNorwalk, CTRB0.8 pts83% role · 64% conf.5′11″ · 206 lbTransfer infrom UConn
#8KK SmithFrisco, TXWR0.6 pts43% role · 64% conf.6′0″ · 180 lbTransfer infrom Notre Dame
#75Ben MurawskiHarleysville, PAOL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′7″ · 340 lbTransfer infrom UConn
#52Nick SharpeGastonia, NCOL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 351 lbTransfer infrom South Carolina
#71Robert Wright Jr.Atlanta, GAOL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 294 lbTransfer infrom Georgia Southern
#63Trent FraleyMoon Township, PAOL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 306 lbTransfer infrom North Dakota State
#9Keahnist ThompsonLakeland, FLEDGE0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 266 lbTransfer infrom Weber State
#23Kenny Soares Jr.Trumbull, CTEDGE0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 234 lbTransfer infrom NC State
#8Trey LisleFayetteville, AREDGE0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′6″ · 254 lbTransfer infrom Southeast Missouri State
#25Carlos HazelwoodChicago, ILDL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 290 lbTransfer infrom Toledo
#96Eli CoenenBaldwin, WIDL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′6″ · 287 lbTransfer infrom Illinois
#4Jaziun PattersonPompano Beach, FLRB0.5 pts53% role · 76% conf.5′10″ · 214 lbTransfer infrom Iowa
#12Carson GulkerZeeland, MITE0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 245 lbTransfer infrom Ferris State
#19Charles BrantleySarasota, FLCB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 170 lbTransfer infrom Miami
#3Tre BellSt. Louis, MOCB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 200 lbTransfer infrom Iowa State
#22Tyran ChappellDallas, TXCB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 189 lbTransfer infrom Houston Christian
#2Devin VaughtCharlotte, NCS0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 212 lbTransfer infrom Maine
#7Michael RichardNew Orleans, LAS0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 179 lbTransfer infrom Louisiana Tech
#6Fredrick MooreSt. Louis, MOWR0.4 pts41% role · 64% conf.6′1″ · 187 lbTransfer infrom Michigan
#44Caleb WheatlandCentreville, VALB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 244 lbTransfer infrom Auburn
#12Cam StodghillCharlotte, NCLB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 222 lbTransfer infrom Albany
#18Dion CrawfordAtlanta, GALB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 243 lbTransfer infrom Buffalo
#32Kenneth WilliamsDetroit, MIRB0.3 pts38% role · 40% conf.5′9″ · 191 lbTransfer infrom Nebraska
#49Alex WeeksScottsdale, AZP0.3 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 191 lbTransfer infrom Northern Arizona
#9Rhys DakinMelbourne, VICP0.3 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 235 lbTransfer infrom Iowa
#50Nick DuzanskyGlen Ellyn, ILLS0.3 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 197 lbTransfer infrom Oregon
#37Liam BoydAsheville, NCPK0.3 pts38% role · 52% conf.6′1″ · 200 lbTransfer infrom Charlotte
#11Alessio MilivojevicNaperville, ILQB3.0 pts63% starter · 76% conf.6′3″ · 223 lbReturning
#13Chrishon McCrayAvon, INWR0.7 pts53% role · 64% conf.5′10″ · 180 lbReturning
#3Rodney Bullard Jr.Albany, GAWR0.7 pts49% role · 64% conf.5′11″ · 188 lbReturning
#31Jayden SavouryCanton, MITE0.6 pts46% role · 64% conf.6′5″ · 253 lbReturning
#14Bryson WilliamsCanton, MIWR0.6 pts46% role · 64% conf.6′2″ · 225 lbReturning
#19Charles TaplinRed Oak, TXWR0.6 pts46% role · 64% conf.6′1″ · 184 lbReturning
#77Andrew DennisMount Pleasant, MIOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 302 lbReturning
#54Antonio JohnsonDetroit, MIOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 287 lbReturning
#58Conner MooreMillbury, OHOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′6″ · 311 lbReturning
#76Drew NicholsMurrieta, CAOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 298 lbReturning
#70Luka VincicBothell, WAOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 306 lbReturning
#55Rakeem JohnsonBoise, IDOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 296 lbReturning
#73Rustin YoungHonolulu, HIOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 308 lbReturning
#11Anelu LafaeleKalihi, HIEDGE0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 240 lbReturning
#56Chris PiwowarczykFenton, MIEDGE0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 250 lbReturning
#13Isaac SmithWagoner, OKEDGE0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′6″ · 260 lbReturning
#47Jaxson WilsonHartland, MIEDGE0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 258 lbReturning
#51Kekai BurnettHonolulu, HIEDGE0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 262 lbReturning
#36Leonard Ah YouLaie, HIEDGE0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 250 lbReturning
#55Ben RobertsLakewood, WADL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 325 lbReturning
#97Cal ThrushUpper Arlington, OHDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 263 lbReturning
#98Derrick SimmonsFrankenmuth, MIDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 305 lbReturning
#52Mikeshun BeelerChicago, ILDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 290 lbReturning
#7Brandon TullisDallas, TXRB0.5 pts63% role · 76% conf.6′1″ · 224 lbReturning
#17Braylon CollierSandusky, OHWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 187 lbReturning
#22Jack YanachikWarren, MIWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 205 lbReturning
#89Nick HardyBirmingham, MIWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 194 lbReturning
#82Brennan ParachekDexter, MITE0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 249 lbReturning
#48Charlie BakerEast Lansing, MITE0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 252 lbReturning
#88Kai RiosRock Island, ILTE0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′6″ · 262 lbReturning
#14Andrew Brinson IVTampa, FLCB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 186 lbReturning
#20Keshawn WilliamsMurfreesboro, TNCB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 187 lbReturning
#0NiJhay BurtHomestead, PACB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 188 lbReturning
#30Aveon GroseMansfield, OHS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 187 lbReturning
#15Caleb GashSouth Lyon, MIS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 193 lbReturning
#31Deuce EdwardsRichmond, VAS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 202 lbReturning
#32Evan YoungLufkin, TXS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 196 lbReturning
#34Khalil MajeedMoorestown, NJS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 201 lbReturning
#21Nikai MartinezApopka, FLDB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 196 lbReturning
#45Brady PretzlaffGaylord, MILB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 238 lbReturning
#40DeJae WhitePontiac, MILB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 225 lbReturning
#10DiMari MaloneMacomb Township, MILB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 238 lbReturning
#5Jordan HallFredericksburg, VALB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 249 lbReturning
#44Jay CoyneNew York, NYFB0.4 pts46% role · 64% conf.6′2″ · 231 lbReturning
#27Darrin Jones Jr.Lake Orion, MIRB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 206 lbReturning
#25Jace ClarizioEast Lansing, MIRB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 213 lbReturning
#33Jaxon McCaigPlymouth, MIRB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 236 lbReturning
#20Zion GistFrankfort, ILRB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 209 lbReturning
#15Leo HannanLong Beach, CAQB0.2 pts4% starter · 40% conf.6′3″ · 221 lbReturning
#21Marvis ParrishFort Lauderdale, FLRB0.4 pts47% role · 52% conf.5′11″ · 209 lbNew / unverified
#18Jameel Gardner Jr.Detroit, MIWR0.4 pts31% role · 52% conf.6′0″ · 193 lbNew / unverified
#65Cole BertkeEast Grand Rapids, MIOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′5″ · 285 lbNew / unverified
#61Collin CampbellGilbert, AZOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′6″ · 295 lbNew / unverified
#68Eli BickelNorth Branch, MIOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′6″ · 312 lbNew / unverified
#56Jack ZiarkoNorth Canton, OHOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 286 lbNew / unverified
#79Tristan ComerFreeland, MIOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′5″ · 305 lbNew / unverified
#94Aidan BoehleMinnetonka, MNEDGE0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 253 lbNew / unverified
#33Cory House Jr.Memphis, TNEDGE0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 230 lbNew / unverified
#57Hudson AultmanDelaware, OHDL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 312 lbNew / unverified
#91Jackson PahlHowell, MIDL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 282 lbNew / unverified
#81Colin CharlesNorthville, MIWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 202 lbNew / unverified
#85Rai'Shawn ElmoreIndian Trail, NCWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 193 lbNew / unverified
#5Samson GashSouth Lyon, MIWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 185 lbNew / unverified
#16Zach WashingtonNaperville, ILWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 188 lbNew / unverified
#84Eddie WhitingSioux Falls, SDTE0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′6″ · 254 lbNew / unverified
#86Ethan MelvilleHolt, MITE0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 213 lbNew / unverified
#87Joe CaudillLexington, OHTE0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 232 lbNew / unverified
#37Darelle CochranRedford, MICB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 175 lbNew / unverified
#24Jeremiah FavoriteMyrtle Beach, SCCB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′11″ · 172 lbNew / unverified
#29KJ DerisoAtlanta, GACB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 160 lbNew / unverified
#42Luca GenrichFarmington, MICB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′10″ · 187 lbNew / unverified
#27Truth UmenyioraAtlanta, GACB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 194 lbNew / unverified
#28Brayden ThomasCleveland, OHS0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 177 lbNew / unverified
#35Eliyjah CaldwellJacksonville, FLS0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 188 lbNew / unverified
#17Jonathan GranbyAlpharetta, GAS0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′10″ · 200 lbNew / unverified
#26Trevaughn MartinezFort Lauderdale, FLS0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′9″ · 175 lbNew / unverified
#16Adam ShawRiver Vale, NJLB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 223 lbNew / unverified
#39Jack Lansing IIIBrighton, MILB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 213 lbNew / unverified
#10Kayd CoffmanKentwood, MIQB0.2 pts4% starter · 28% conf.6′2″ · 206 lbNew / unverified
#23Peyton BabbittMuskegon, MIQB0.2 pts4% starter · 28% conf.6′0″ · 200 lbNew / unverified
#26Cedric Williams Jr.Canton, MIRB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′9″ · 201 lbNew / unverified
#85Stephen GonzalesMonroe, NCPK0.1 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′10″ · 182 lbNew / unverified
#53Trey SerauskisFrankfort, ILLS0.1 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′10″ · 205 lbNew / unverified
2026 schedule
The path that shapes the projection.
The model prices every scheduled game individually. Home field, neutral sites, completed results and opponent rating feed the expected-win total shown above.
WeekOpponentSiteDate / result
1ToledoNon-conference · Spartan Stadium · 4M 26–25 · 48% win
HomeSep 48:00 PM EDT · model ↗2
Eastern MichiganNon-conference · Spartan Stadium · 4M 23–31 · 66% win
HomeSep 123:30 PM EDT · model ↗3
Notre DameNon-conference · Notre Dame Stadium · 4M 15–38 · 10% win
AwaySep 197:30 PM EDT · model ↗4
NebraskaConference · Spartan Stadium · 4M 28–25 · 44% win
HomeSep 2612:00 AM EDT · model ↗5
WisconsinConference · Camp Randall Stadium · 4M 22–28 · 36% win
AwayOct 312:00 AM EDT · model ↗6
IllinoisConference · Spartan Stadium · 4M 30–23 · 36% win
HomeOct 1012:00 AM EDT · model ↗7
NorthwesternConference · Spartan Stadium · 4M 27–25 · 44% win
HomeOct 1712:00 AM EDT · model ↗8
UCLAConference · Rose Bowl · 4M 22–29 · 35% win
AwayOct 2412:00 AM EDT · model ↗10
MichiganConference · Michigan Stadium · 4M 19–33 · 22% win
AwayNov 712:00 AM EST · model ↗11
WashingtonConference · Spartan Stadium · 4M 31–21 · 29% win
HomeNov 1412:00 AM EST · model ↗12
OregonConference · Spartan Stadium · 4M 35–17 · 16% win
HomeNov 208:00 PM EST · model ↗13
RutgersConference · SHI Stadium · 4M 25–30 · 38% win
AwayNov 2812:00 AM EST · model ↗
Range of outcomes
The projection is the middle—not the ceiling.
Floor case2 wins
Instability at premium positions turns swing games into losses.
4M midpoint4 wins
The roster performs close to its current power and schedule baseline.
Ceiling case6 wins
Quarterback play and line continuity outperform the preseason prior.
The betting lens
Price and matchup decide the play.
No team is an automatic bet or fade. The goal is to identify when the market's story about Michigan State diverges from the football conditions required to cover.
The spread is large, the favorite plays slowly, and the game script allows Michigan State to stay inside the number without chasing points.
The offense must play from behind, protect for long-yardage throws and generate explosives simply to reach the market expectation.
Quarterback efficiency, offensive-line cohesion and whether the defense can get off the field without blitzing itself out of structure.
Season-defining questionWill line play and quarterback consistency survive the Big Ten's deepest tier of contenders?