The 2026 outlook
Can this team create enough explosive offense to separate in the reconfigured Mountain West?
UNLV opens No. 65 nationally and No. 1 of 10 in the Mountain West. The 4M baseline rates the roster 0.2 points above an average FBS team on a neutral field and projects 7 regular-season wins.
UNLV sits near the model's break-even line, where quarterback development and close-game execution matter more than brand. A bowl is attainable, but the margin is too thin to assume last year's record—or a splashy transfer class—will repeat without supporting efficiency.
There are enough playable pieces to compete, but the roster needs a dependable identity. Stable quarterback efficiency or an obvious line-of-scrimmage advantage would lift the ceiling. Portal additions matter only if their roles translate into protection, pressure or explosive-play creation.
The schedule grades No. 102 nationally—enough resistance to expose weaknesses without defining the entire year. A small group of swing games should determine whether UNLV beats its 7-win projection, placing extra value on special teams, fourth-down decisions and late-game quarterback play.
Personnel command center
Who is back, who arrived and who has to matter.
The roster is grouped by continuity because returning snaps and proven transfer production are more useful than raw headcount. “New / unverified” means the player did not match last season's roster or the incoming portal file—not that the player is necessarily a freshman.
Head coachDan Mullen15–10 over the available CFBD career window
Staff continuityReturning head coachContinuity is treated as context, not an automatic upgrade.
Portal ledger16 in · 15 outImpact is weighted by rating, position and prior usage.
Position-group modelPremium roles separated.Fifty is FBS average. Quarterback includes the modeled starter probability, not merely the best name in the room.
4M player valueHighest-leverage rolesMaximum point value assumes the player is fully unavailable and is reduced by status probability.
PlayerPos.4M valueSizeContinuity
#11Jackson ArnoldDenton, TXQB4.7 pts94% starter · 76% conf.6′1″ · 220 lbTransfer infrom Auburn
#2Taz ReddicksFort Lauderdale, FLWR0.6 pts50% role · 64% conf.5′11″ · 195 lbTransfer infrom Oregon State
#17Amorion WalkerPonchatoula, LAWR0.6 pts44% role · 64% conf.6′4″ · 190 lbTransfer infrom Middle Tennessee
#77Colton ThomassonSpring Branch, TXOL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′8″ · 325 lbTransfer infrom Baylor
#55Griffin ScroggsGrayson, GAOL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 330 lbTransfer infrom App State
#78Jackson BrownDanville, CAOL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′6″ · 310 lbTransfer infrom Pittsburgh
#64Joe MetzgerFranklinville, NJOL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 310 lbTransfer infrom Holy Cross
#92Herb GrayUpper Marlboro, MDDL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 275 lbTransfer infrom Tennessee
#84Keyan BurnettLadera Ranch, CATE0.5 pts41% role · 64% conf.6′6″ · 250 lbTransfer infrom Arizona
#10Troy StellatoFort Lauderdale, FLWR0.4 pts40% role · 64% conf.6′1″ · 195 lbTransfer infrom Kentucky
#20Landyn ClevelandDallas, TXS0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 190 lbTransfer infrom Oklahoma State
#23Cam SanteeAvon, OHLB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 235 lbTransfer infrom Holy Cross
#3Dee CraytonAlpharetta, GALB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 230 lbTransfer infrom Clemson
#11Mark IheanachorLos Angeles, CALB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 220 lbTransfer infrom SMU
#9Jai'Den ThomasAtlanta, GARB0.8 pts81% role · 76% conf.5′9″ · 195 lbReturning
#4DeAngelo Irvin Jr.Midwest City, OKWR0.6 pts51% role · 64% conf.5′8″ · 170 lbReturning
#8Taeshaun LyonsHayward, CAWR0.6 pts50% role · 64% conf.6′1″ · 190 lbReturning
#65Ace RobinsonOakland, CAOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 285 lbReturning
#70Alekai AfoaSan Ramon, CAOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 295 lbReturning
#74Amare TaaseScottsdale, AZOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 330 lbReturning
#79Austin BoydLehi, UTOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 305 lbReturning
#76Chrysanthos FetokakisHouston, TXOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 335 lbReturning
#71Ed HaynesHenderson, NVOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 310 lbReturning
#72Will ThomasTulsa, OKOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′7″ · 305 lbReturning
#42Andre PorterLas Vegas, NVDE0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 245 lbReturning
#32Kenji ScanlanTacoma, WADE0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 245 lbReturning
#40Armand AusbonHouston, TXDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 250 lbReturning
#0Cohen FullerInglewood, CADL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 300 lbReturning
#90Eliah LogoHenderson, NVDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 310 lbReturning
#99Jordan CovingtonMcKinney, TXDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 290 lbReturning
#44Kal-El TogafauRancho Cucamonga, CADL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 270 lbReturning
#9Landen ThomasZachary, LADL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 255 lbReturning
#94Lucas ContiCorona, CADL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 295 lbReturning
#88Mo AbbasherCoppell, TXDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 305 lbReturning
#16Mohamed AltayebCastle Rock, CODL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 290 lbReturning
#85Matt ByrnesChicago, ILTE0.5 pts47% role · 64% conf.6′6″ · 250 lbReturning
#6Kayden McGeeMuskogee, OKWR0.5 pts49% role · 64% conf.6′0″ · 170 lbReturning
#83Cassidee MilesFort Worth, TXWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 190 lbReturning
#19Danny BodenDunwoody, GAWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 180 lbReturning
#86David Titone-PerezHacienda Heights, CAWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 170 lbReturning
#5Tavian McNairNorth Las Vegas, NVWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 185 lbReturning
#43Jae Beasley IIHenderson, NVTE0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 250 lbReturning
#88Velltray JeffersonFresno, CATE0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 260 lbReturning
#25Brock DeFriesMission Viejo, CAS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 190 lbReturning
#7Jake PopeBuford, GAS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 200 lbReturning
#14Logan ChristensenRancho Santa Margarita, CAS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 200 lbReturning
#2Denver HarrisHouston, TXDB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 190 lbReturning
#13Jaylen AllenLas Vegas, NVDB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 185 lbReturning
#21Joshua TuchekLong Beach, CADB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 175 lbReturning
#1Mumu Bin-WahadAtlanta, GADB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 190 lbReturning
#5Quandarius KeyesLaurel, MSDB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 185 lbReturning
#10Tre FultonBakersfield, CADB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 190 lbReturning
#0Jaylon GloverLakeland, FLRB0.4 pts54% role · 76% conf.5′9″ · 210 lbReturning
#51Alexander GreenLas Vegas, NVLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 235 lbReturning
#15Blesyng Alualu-TuiolemotuKalihi, HILB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 220 lbReturning
#91Elias RudolphDeerfield Beach, FLLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 205 lbReturning
#52Jacob BezaHenderson, NVLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 235 lbReturning
#36Justin FloweChino, CALB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 230 lbReturning
#8Kamuela Ka'aihuePapaikou, HILB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 240 lbReturning
#24Darrien JonesKansas City, MORB0.4 pts50% role · 64% conf.6′0″ · 215 lbReturning
#23Kamran WilliamsJefferson, TXRB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 185 lbReturning
#29Mohammad MaaliLas Vegas, NVRB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 210 lbReturning
#56Andrew O'ReillyLas Vegas, NVLS0.3 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 210 lbReturning
#32Ramon VillelaUpland, CAPK0.3 pts44% role · 52% conf.6′2″ · 210 lbReturning
#1Alex OrjiSachse, TXQB0.2 pts5% starter · 64% conf.6′3″ · 240 lbReturning
#13Sebastian CircoFort Lauderdale, FLQB0.2 pts4% starter · 40% conf.6′2″ · 195 lbReturning
#66BJ ToloSanta Ana, CAOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 320 lbNew / unverified
#62Eli SanchezSandusky, OHOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 300 lbNew / unverified
#61Fuad MaaliOrlando, FLOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′6″ · 285 lbNew / unverified
#68Ivan PenaLas Vegas, NVOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′6″ · 345 lbNew / unverified
#73Jesus Garcia IISan Diego, CAOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′5″ · 290 lbNew / unverified
#60Josh HaneySan Juan Capistrano, CAOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 280 lbNew / unverified
#67Malik WhiteRancho Cucamonga, CAOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′5″ · 305 lbNew / unverified
#75Mateo BilaverNorth Hollywood, CAOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′6″ · 315 lbNew / unverified
#50Tevita TausingaSacramento, CAOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′5″ · 350 lbNew / unverified
#57Zach ScottHenderson, NVOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′5″ · 325 lbNew / unverified
#97Bryce RobinsonMarietta, GADL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 280 lbNew / unverified
#95Bryce WatersTampa, FLDL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 320 lbNew / unverified
#48CJ BesserLas Vegas, NVDL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 245 lbNew / unverified
#54Poe PurcellLas Vegas, NVDL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 320 lbNew / unverified
#96Prin FoxCashmere, WADL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 280 lbNew / unverified
#87Demari NunleyLos Angeles, CAWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 195 lbNew / unverified
#80Jesse HardenTampa, FLWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 185 lbNew / unverified
#82Peyton ZacharyAtlanta, GAWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′8″ · 170 lbNew / unverified
#15Tatum Bell Jr.Frisco, TXWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 205 lbNew / unverified
#81Vincent CarnerNewbury Park, CAWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 205 lbNew / unverified
#89Andreas Diaz-NicolaidisPortland, ORTE0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 250 lbNew / unverified
#41Aveon WilliamsCasa Grande, AZTE0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′5″ · 265 lbNew / unverified
#29AJ MortonSeattle, WADB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 190 lbNew / unverified
#24Avery HelmMissouri City, TXDB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 185 lbNew / unverified
#27Cameron ParodiMilton, GADB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 200 lbNew / unverified
#22Darien LewisAmarillo, TXDB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 205 lbNew / unverified
#4Tony-Louis NkubaLewisville, TXDB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 195 lbNew / unverified
#37Triston ThomasLos Angeles, CADB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′9″ · 180 lbNew / unverified
#19Tylen MathewsLake Cormorant, MSDB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 185 lbNew / unverified
#28Vern BlairAmarillo, TXDB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 170 lbNew / unverified
#45Cole AlbrechtSandy, UTLB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 245 lbNew / unverified
#30Jordan NjokuLos Angeles, CALB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 235 lbNew / unverified
#31Ronnell Hewitt Jr.Los Angeles, CALB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 225 lbNew / unverified
#33Tate MatthewsDenver, COLB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 215 lbNew / unverified
#14Derek GarciaVentura, CAQB0.2 pts4% starter · 28% conf.6′4″ · 205 lbNew / unverified
#22Skylar VannLos Angeles, CARB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′11″ · 190 lbNew / unverified
#35Brayden BakerScottsdale, AZPK0.1 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 170 lbNew / unverified
#49Noah RandazzoLas Vegas, NVPK0.1 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′11″ · 185 lbNew / unverified
#39Ethan SchwartzMission Viejo, CAP0.1 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′5″ · 205 lbNew / unverified
#26Matt ChoulesCanberra, ACTP0.1 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 225 lbNew / unverified
#46Mason SenzakiLas Vegas, NVLS0.1 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 205 lbNew / unverified
#47Tyson JacobsonCamas, WALS0.1 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 215 lbNew / unverified
2026 schedule
The path that shapes the projection.
The model prices every scheduled game individually. Home field, neutral sites, completed results and opponent rating feed the expected-win total shown above.
WeekOpponentSiteDate / result
1MemphisNon-conference · Allegiant Stadium · 4M 25–30 · 61% win
HomeAug 2910:00 PM EDT · model ↗1
Hawai'iConference · Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex · 4M 28–27 · 52% win
AwaySep 510:00 PM EDT · model ↗2North TexasNon-conference · DATCU Stadium · 4M 27–30 · 44% win
AwaySep 123:45 PM EDT · model ↗4
AkronNon-conference · InfoCision Stadium · 4M 32–22 · 72% win
AwaySep 2612:00 AM EDT · model ↗5
CaliforniaNon-conference · Allegiant Stadium · 4M 25–29 · 57% win
HomeOct 33:30 PM EDT · model ↗6
North Dakota StateConference · Allegiant Stadium · 4M 22–33 · 73% win
HomeOct 107:00 PM EDT · model ↗7
Air ForceConference · Falcon Stadium · 4M 31–28 · 58% win
AwayOct 173:30 PM EDT · model ↗9
Northern IllinoisConference · Allegiant Stadium · 4M 20–34 · 79% win
HomeOct 3110:30 PM EDT · model ↗10
WyomingConference · Allegiant Stadium · 4M 21–31 · 71% win
HomeNov 710:30 PM EST · model ↗11
New MexicoConference · University Stadium (NM) · 4M 27–27 · 49% win
AwayNov 147:30 PM EST · model ↗12
San José StateConference · CEFCU Stadium · 4M 30–24 · 63% win
AwayNov 217:00 PM EST · model ↗13
NevadaConference · Allegiant Stadium · 4M 21–33 · 74% win
HomeNov 289:00 PM EST · model ↗
Range of outcomes
The projection is the middle—not the ceiling.
Floor case5 wins
Instability at premium positions turns swing games into losses.
4M midpoint7 wins
The roster performs close to its current power and schedule baseline.
Ceiling case9 wins
Quarterback play and line continuity outperform the preseason prior.
The betting lens
Price and matchup decide the play.
No team is an automatic bet or fade. The goal is to identify when the market's story about UNLV diverges from the football conditions required to cover.
The number is below a full possession and UNLV's best unit attacks a verified opponent weakness.
The offense must play from behind, protect for long-yardage throws and generate explosives simply to reach the market expectation.
Early-down success rate, pressure allowed and defensive explosive-play rate. Two stable categories would justify an upgrade.
Season-defining questionCan this team create enough explosive offense to separate in the reconfigured Mountain West?