The 2026 outlook
How quickly will this roster establish itself inside the rebuilt Pac-12 hierarchy?
San Diego State opens No. 54 nationally and No. 2 of 8 in the Pac-12. The 4M baseline rates the roster 2.4 points above an average FBS team on a neutral field and projects 5.8 regular-season wins.
San Diego State sits near the model's break-even line, where quarterback development and close-game execution matter more than brand. A bowl is attainable, but the margin is too thin to assume last year's record—or a splashy transfer class—will repeat without supporting efficiency.
There are enough playable pieces to compete, but the roster needs a dependable identity. Stable quarterback efficiency or an obvious line-of-scrimmage advantage would lift the ceiling. Portal additions matter only if their roles translate into protection, pressure or explosive-play creation.
The schedule grades No. 75 nationally—enough resistance to expose weaknesses without defining the entire year. A small group of swing games should determine whether San Diego State beats its 5.8-win projection, placing extra value on special teams, fourth-down decisions and late-game quarterback play.
Personnel command center
Who is back, who arrived and who has to matter.
The roster is grouped by continuity because returning snaps and proven transfer production are more useful than raw headcount. “New / unverified” means the player did not match last season's roster or the incoming portal file—not that the player is necessarily a freshman.
Head coachSean Lewis24–27 over the available CFBD career window
Staff continuityReturning head coachContinuity is treated as context, not an automatic upgrade.
Portal ledger26 in · 26 outImpact is weighted by rating, position and prior usage.
Position-group modelPremium roles separated.Fifty is FBS average. Quarterback includes the modeled starter probability, not merely the best name in the room.
4M player valueHighest-leverage rolesMaximum point value assumes the player is fully unavailable and is reduced by status probability.
PlayerPos.4M valueSizeContinuity
#30Aldrich DoeMays Landing, NJWR0.7 pts52% role · 64% conf.6′3″ · 196 lbTransfer infrom Bryant
#18Justius LowePortland, ORWR0.6 pts43% role · 64% conf.6′1″ · 190 lbTransfer infrom Oregon
#67Charlton LuniewskiCincinnati, OHOL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 310 lbTransfer infrom Michigan State
#72Dennis JonesDallas, TXOL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′6″ · 350 lbTransfer infrom Texas Southern
#71Evan LawrenceDanville, INOL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′6″ · 306 lbTransfer infrom Indiana
#56Isaac LucasYoungstown, OHOL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 298 lbTransfer infrom Ball State
#70Mercer LuniewskiCincinnati, OHOL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′6″ · 320 lbTransfer infrom Michigan State
#59Djibril RahmanMontreal, PQDL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 257 lbTransfer infrom Rutgers
#95Gavriel LightfootMoreno Valley, CADL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 310 lbTransfer infrom Colorado
#18Kai WallinSacramento, CADL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 247 lbTransfer infrom Oregon State
#44Nate HenrichHamburg, NYDL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′6″ · 260 lbTransfer infrom Gannon
#94Tuaoa Tauili'iliTacoma, WADL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 330 lbTransfer infrom Portland State
#93Ayo Shotomide-KingChula Vista, CAWR0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 225 lbTransfer infrom Oklahoma State
#32Caleb RicksRancho Cucamonga, CACB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 195 lbTransfer infrom Idaho
#26Jason OliverBakersfield, CACB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 170 lbTransfer infrom Sacramento State
#27Mike LindsayLos Angeles, CACB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 185 lbTransfer infrom Idaho State
#23Carsten MamarilTemecula, CAS0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.5′9″ · 180 lbTransfer infrom Portland State
#14Isaiah GreenOxnard, CAS0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 180 lbTransfer infrom Portland State
#30Jalen ThomesonGreenwood, INS0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 193 lbTransfer infrom Ohio
#37Solomon DavisInland Empire, CAS0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 200 lbTransfer infrom Oregon
#21Javion KinnardNashville, TNRB0.4 pts47% role · 64% conf.5′8″ · 175 lbTransfer infrom Colorado State
#42Cameron CooperGilbert, AZLB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 230 lbTransfer infrom Western Colorado
#0Sione HalaLos Angeles, CALB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 225 lbTransfer infrom Weber State
#80Tyler PrasuhnCarlsbad, CAPK0.3 pts38% role · 52% conf.6′2″ · 185 lbTransfer infrom Arizona
#12Stone SaundersHarrisburg, PAQB0.2 pts4% starter · 40% conf.6′1″ · 222 lbTransfer infrom Kentucky
#4Jayden DenegalApple Valley, CAQB4.5 pts94% starter · 76% conf.6′5″ · 230 lbReturning
#7Lucky SuttonSan Diego, CARB0.9 pts94% role · 76% conf.6′1″ · 210 lbReturning
#2Jordan NapierFontana, CAWR0.9 pts64% role · 64% conf.6′2″ · 205 lbReturning
#17Jacob BostickPalatine, ILWR0.8 pts56% role · 64% conf.6′3″ · 190 lbReturning
#14Donovan BrownMontgomery Village, MDWR0.7 pts58% role · 64% conf.6′2″ · 180 lbReturning
#88Ryan WolferPeoria, AZTE0.6 pts47% role · 64% conf.6′5″ · 235 lbReturning
#16Will CianfriniGalveston, TXWR0.6 pts52% role · 64% conf.6′4″ · 190 lbReturning
#12Jaylon HawkinsArgyle, TXWR0.6 pts55% role · 64% conf.6′0″ · 175 lbReturning
#74Ashdon WnetrzakLos Angeles, CAOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′8″ · 335 lbReturning
#77Cam MayDetroit, MIOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′7″ · 310 lbReturning
#75Delon Craft Jr.Richmond, CAOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 290 lbReturning
#58Ikbahl KassimCorona, CAOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 315 lbReturning
#78Joseph BorjonLa Puente, CAOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′8″ · 338 lbReturning
#76Kalan EllisWaimanalo, HIOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 350 lbReturning
#55Michael Leville WatkinsGlendale, AZOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 310 lbReturning
#5Bert Emanuel Jr.Houston, TXWR0.6 pts49% role · 64% conf.6′3″ · 235 lbReturning
#15Jackson FordMelissa, TXTE0.6 pts48% role · 64% conf.6′6″ · 250 lbReturning
#91Amari ComierOakland, CADL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 295 lbReturning
#33Brady NassarPleasanton, CADL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 255 lbReturning
#99Brian Townsend Jr.Las Vegas, NVDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 240 lbReturning
#40Charlie StewartLos Angeles, CADL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 230 lbReturning
#88Kainoa DavisTemecula, CADL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 275 lbReturning
#11Krishna ClayVacaville, CADL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 295 lbReturning
#10Lucan AmituanaiSacramento, CADL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 240 lbReturning
#6Malachi FinauLos Angeles, CADL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 295 lbReturning
#20Christian WashingtonSan Diego, CARB0.5 pts63% role · 76% conf.5′10″ · 205 lbReturning
#13Nathan AcevedoSan Diego, CAWR0.5 pts52% role · 64% conf.5′10″ · 170 lbReturning
#11De'yhare Overstreet-GloverSan Diego, CAWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′9″ · 165 lbReturning
#10Parker ThreattSan Jose, CAWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 200 lbReturning
#19Jack LuaEastvale, CATE0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 240 lbReturning
#43Braylon CardwellSpring Valley, CACB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 190 lbReturning
#16Jelani WhitmoreRialto, CACB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 185 lbReturning
#13Prince WilliamsWestlake Village, CACB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 195 lbReturning
#12Chase ShumateDetroit, MIS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 190 lbReturning
#9Dalesean StaleyKansas City, MOS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 190 lbReturning
#20Jelani McLaughlinSan Jacinto, CAS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 205 lbReturning
#29Josh HunterTemecula, CAS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′9″ · 180 lbReturning
#24Josiah CoxSan Diego, CAS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 197 lbReturning
#17Kaimana TufagaWhittier, CAS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 200 lbReturning
#22Max GarrisonPasadena, CAS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 195 lbReturning
#34Dean HarringtonThousand Oaks, CALB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 227 lbReturning
#15Oberhiri EyafeAndover, MNLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 205 lbReturning
#21Tano LetuliSan Diego, CALB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 240 lbReturning
#29Jordin ThomasStockton, CARB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′8″ · 205 lbReturning
#89Tashi DorjeBrentwood, CAP0.3 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 205 lbReturning
#64Connor PoulsonDanville, CALS0.3 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 205 lbReturning
#50Luke WilliamsChino Hills, CALS0.3 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 220 lbReturning
#16Draiden TrudeauMission Viejo, CAQB0.2 pts4% starter · 40% conf.6′0″ · 190 lbReturning
#73Brady HillWheaton, ILOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 285 lbNew / unverified
#68Brian BorjonLa Puente, CAOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′6″ · 275 lbNew / unverified
#69Delphyn NgaleuMono, ONOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′6″ · 305 lbNew / unverified
#79Harlem NellumBakersfield, CAOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′5″ · 350 lbNew / unverified
#65Harrison WaltersSan Francisco, CAOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 340 lbNew / unverified
#62Jarvis WilliamsMoreno Valley, CAOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′7″ · 340 lbNew / unverified
#66Justice TurnerRancho Cucamonga, CAOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 290 lbNew / unverified
#48Crosby KellyMoraga, CADL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′5″ · 255 lbNew / unverified
#97Dominic CoelhoRocklin, CADL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 235 lbNew / unverified
#52Koi TaieseOakland, CADL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 320 lbNew / unverified
#90Robby Lavata'iUniversity Place, WADL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′5″ · 250 lbNew / unverified
#98Roman PasekaLong Beach, CADL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 275 lbNew / unverified
#86Carson DiehlSan Diego, CAWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 195 lbNew / unverified
#42Craig WalkerCarson, CAWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′10″ · 170 lbNew / unverified
#85Daishaun DavisMenifee, CAWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′11″ · 170 lbNew / unverified
#84Derek StevensonKaty, TXWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 195 lbNew / unverified
#92Luke GaytonPalos Verdes Estates, CAWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 195 lbNew / unverified
#99Elijah MuliufiSpanaway, WATE0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′7″ · 270 lbNew / unverified
#87Jack EllisNovato, CATE0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′6″ · 230 lbNew / unverified
#47Kime FangupoSouth Jordan, UTTE0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′5″ · 247 lbNew / unverified
#46Dareon EdmondsOntario, CACB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 180 lbNew / unverified
#19Jamison StarksMountain House, CACB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 180 lbNew / unverified
#49Cammeron PurnellEl Cajon, CAS0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 190 lbNew / unverified
#36Rahmeer HendersonRancho Cucamonga, CAS0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 195 lbNew / unverified
#35Tainoa LaveKapolei, HIS0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′11″ · 190 lbNew / unverified
#47Aaron TasinSan Diego, CALB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 195 lbNew / unverified
#41Alijah LashHaslet, TXLB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 230 lbNew / unverified
#39Javari NashLaguna Niguel, CALB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 215 lbNew / unverified
#31Jeramiah LewisSan Jose, CALB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 230 lbNew / unverified
#98Parker GuiltinanSalisbury, CTLB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′5″ · 240 lbNew / unverified
#14Brady CampbellBakersfield, CAQB0.2 pts4% starter · 28% conf.6′3″ · 190 lbNew / unverified
#23Josiah LucasArlington, TXRB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′9″ · 190 lbNew / unverified
#96Cooper DiLevaSan Pedro, CAPK0.1 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′10″ · 170 lbNew / unverified
#38Lane GarnerChico, CAPK0.1 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′10″ · 185 lbNew / unverified
#82Noah SernaRiverside, CAPK0.1 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 200 lbNew / unverified
#93Camden CowgillSan Diego, CAP0.1 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 195 lbNew / unverified
#61Chase SchubertEdna, TXLS0.1 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 215 lbNew / unverified
#60Matthew MercadoFontana, CALS0.1 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′11″ · 205 lbNew / unverified
2026 schedule
The path that shapes the projection.
The model prices every scheduled game individually. Home field, neutral sites, completed results and opponent rating feed the expected-win total shown above.
WeekOpponentSiteDate / result
1Portland StateNon-conference · Snapdragon Stadium · 4M 10–40 · 96% win
HomeSep 59:30 PM EDT · model ↗2UCLANon-conference · Rose Bowl · 4M 24–25 · 48% win
AwaySep 127:15 PM EDT · model ↗3
James MadisonNon-conference · Snapdragon Stadium · 4M 23–26 · 55% win
HomeSep 1910:00 PM EDT · model ↗4
ToledoNon-conference · Glass Bowl · 4M 24–25 · 49% win
AwaySep 2612:00 AM EDT · model ↗5
Texas StateConference · Snapdragon Stadium · 4M 24–28 · 57% win
HomeOct 310:30 PM EDT · model ↗6
Oregon StateConference · Reser Stadium · 4M 28–21 · 66% win
AwayOct 106:00 PM EDT · model ↗7
Fresno StateConference · Snapdragon Stadium · 4M 21–28 · 66% win
HomeOct 1710:30 PM EDT · model ↗8
Colorado StateConference · Canvas Stadium · 4M 29–21 · 67% win
AwayOct 246:30 PM EDT · model ↗9
Washington StateConference · Snapdragon Stadium · 4M 23–26 · 56% win
HomeOct 317:00 PM EDT · model ↗11
Utah StateConference · Snapdragon Stadium · 4M 21–29 · 68% win
HomeNov 149:30 PM EST · model ↗12
Boise StateConference · Albertsons Stadium · 4M 23–25 · 46% win
AwayNov 219:30 PM EST · model ↗
Range of outcomes
The projection is the middle—not the ceiling.
Floor case4 wins
Instability at premium positions turns swing games into losses.
4M midpoint6 wins
The roster performs close to its current power and schedule baseline.
Ceiling case8 wins
Quarterback play and line continuity outperform the preseason prior.
The betting lens
Price and matchup decide the play.
No team is an automatic bet or fade. The goal is to identify when the market's story about San Diego State diverges from the football conditions required to cover.
The number is below a full possession and San Diego State's best unit attacks a verified opponent weakness.
The offense must play from behind, protect for long-yardage throws and generate explosives simply to reach the market expectation.
Early-down success rate, pressure allowed and defensive explosive-play rate. Two stable categories would justify an upgrade.
Season-defining questionHow quickly will this roster establish itself inside the rebuilt Pac-12 hierarchy?