The 2026 outlook
Can the roster hold its efficiency when the schedule produces SEC-level stress almost every week?
Mississippi State opens No. 55 nationally and No. 16 of 16 in the SEC. The 4M baseline rates the roster 2.2 points above an average FBS team on a neutral field and projects 4.3 regular-season wins.
Mississippi State sits near the model's break-even line, where quarterback development and close-game execution matter more than brand. A bowl is attainable, but the margin is too thin to assume last year's record—or a splashy transfer class—will repeat without supporting efficiency.
There are enough playable pieces to compete, but the roster needs a dependable identity. Stable quarterback efficiency or an obvious line-of-scrimmage advantage would lift the ceiling. Portal additions matter only if their roles translate into protection, pressure or explosive-play creation.
The schedule is a defining variable: it projects No. 7 nationally, with No. 1 representing the hardest slate. Mississippi State can play good football and still finish below public expectations if it loses the possession battles in its highest-leverage games. This is why the 4.3-win projection may look conservative relative to the power rating.
Personnel command center
Who is back, who arrived and who has to matter.
The roster is grouped by continuity because returning snaps and proven transfer production are more useful than raw headcount. “New / unverified” means the player did not match last season's roster or the incoming portal file—not that the player is necessarily a freshman.
Head coachJeff Lebby7–18 over the available CFBD career window
Staff continuityReturning head coachContinuity is treated as context, not an automatic upgrade.
Portal ledger28 in · 40 outImpact is weighted by rating, position and prior usage.
Position-group modelPremium roles separated.Fifty is FBS average. Quarterback includes the modeled starter probability, not merely the best name in the room.
4M player valueHighest-leverage rolesMaximum point value assumes the player is fully unavailable and is reduced by status probability.
PlayerPos.4M valueSizeContinuity
#17AJ SwannCanton, GAQB3.6 pts77% starter · 76% conf.6′2″ · 220 lbTransfer infrom App State
#2Marquis JohnsonDickinson, TXWR0.7 pts49% role · 64% conf.5′11″ · 190 lbTransfer infrom Missouri
#4Amaree WilliamsNorth Palm Beach, FLEDGE0.5 pts42% role · 64% conf.6′4″ · 240 lbTransfer infrom Florida State
#78DJ ChesterConyers, GAOL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′6″ · 315 lbTransfer infrom LSU
#75Isaiah DentFulton, MSOL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′6″ · 320 lbTransfer infrom Oklahoma
#66Ja'Elyne MatthewsToms River, NJOL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′6″ · 350 lbTransfer infrom Florida State
—Jamari FreemanFairburn, GAOL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 300 lbTransfer infrom Mercer
#50LJ PrudhommeShreveport, LAOL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 320 lbTransfer infrom Arkansas
#63Mario NashDe Kalb, MSOL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 305 lbTransfer infrom Florida State
#58Miles McVayEast St. Louis, ILOL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′6″ · 350 lbTransfer infrom North Carolina
#59Tyler MillerLaurel, MSOL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′6″ · 335 lbTransfer infrom LSU
#18Riley WilliamsPortland, ORTE0.5 pts43% role · 64% conf.6′5″ · 250 lbTransfer infrom Oregon State
#40Gus CordovaAustin, TXDE0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 270 lbTransfer infrom USC
#14Dealyn EvansLongview, TXDL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 310 lbTransfer infrom Texas A&M
#97Jayson JenkinsBordentown, NJDL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′6″ · 280 lbTransfer infrom Florida State
#7Zion RaginsMacon, GAWR0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.5′8″ · 170 lbTransfer infrom Oklahoma
#26Jamroc GrimsleyTampa, FLCB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 200 lbTransfer infrom Florida
#8Kaylib SingletonJacksonville, FLCB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 190 lbTransfer infrom Syracuse
#24Quentin TaylorApopka, FLCB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 205 lbTransfer infrom Iowa State
#5Jardin GilbertWhite Castle, LAS0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 195 lbTransfer infrom LSU
#3Kendel DolbySpringfield, OHS0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 195 lbTransfer infrom Oklahoma
#15Marcus WilliamsHoover, ALS0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 200 lbTransfer infrom Rice
—Terrance LoveAtlanta, GAS0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 210 lbTransfer infrom Colorado
#44Gav HolmanUniondale, NYLB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 235 lbTransfer infrom Florida State
—James Heard Jr.Camden, NJLB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 230 lbTransfer infrom Syracuse
#8Jaden RashadaPittsburg, CAQB0.3 pts6% starter · 64% conf.6′4″ · 185 lbTransfer infrom Sacramento State
#3Anthony Evans IIIConverse, TXWR0.9 pts62% role · 64% conf.5′11″ · 180 lbReturning
#1Kamario TaylorMacon, MSQB0.7 pts15% starter · 76% conf.6′4″ · 230 lbReturning
#24Fluff BothwellOneonta, ALRB0.7 pts80% role · 76% conf.5′10″ · 230 lbReturning
#87Sam WestGreensburg, INTE0.6 pts46% role · 64% conf.6′4″ · 250 lbReturning
#54Blake SteenMiami, FLOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′6″ · 340 lbReturning
#70Breyden TurnageDyersburg, TNOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′7″ · 320 lbReturning
#72Canon BooneKemah, TXOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 315 lbReturning
#55Jakheem Shumpert-PerkinsPlantersville, MSOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 330 lbReturning
#60Matthew LefeauTacoma, WAOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 350 lbReturning
#71Saquon MilesGreenville, ALOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 320 lbReturning
#65Spencer DowlandAthens, ALOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′6″ · 300 lbReturning
#77TJ LockhartKilmichael, MSOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 360 lbReturning
#56Wesley DavisCollierville, TNOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 300 lbReturning
#55Colin CoatesBaltimore, MDDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 320 lbReturning
#99Diesel MoyePhenix City, ALDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 345 lbReturning
#42DJ ReedColumbus, GADL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 285 lbReturning
#9Jaray BledsoeMarlin, TXDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 315 lbReturning
#35Kalvin DinkinsLake, MSDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 320 lbReturning
#23Trevion WilliamsCrystal Springs, MSDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 295 lbReturning
#43Will WhitsonCincinnati, OHDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 295 lbReturning
#11Ayden WilliamsRidgeland, MSWR0.5 pts51% role · 64% conf.6′3″ · 205 lbReturning
#13Sanfrisco MageeMccomb, MSWR0.5 pts47% role · 64% conf.6′2″ · 200 lbReturning
#0Gracen HarrisEnnis, TXWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 175 lbReturning
#89Jessie Primer IVCanton, MSWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 175 lbReturning
#88Joeseph SkipworthPace, FLTE0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 225 lbReturning
#38Jaylen AntoineBay Saint Louis, MSCB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 180 lbReturning
#20Jett JeffersonTylertown, MSCB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 190 lbReturning
#1Kelley JonesClarksdale, MSCB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 195 lbReturning
#17Kyle JohnsonCottonport, LACB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 185 lbReturning
#2Isaac SmithFulton, MSS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 220 lbReturning
#18Sekou Smith Jr.Miami, FLS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 180 lbReturning
#28Tanner JohnsonKyle, TXS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 185 lbReturning
#34Vic SuttonMadison, MSS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 215 lbReturning
#47Sean PleasantAustin, TXDB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 170 lbReturning
#32AJ RiceHuntsville, ALLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 240 lbReturning
#16Derion GulletteMarlin, TXLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 240 lbReturning
#0Fatt ForrestKilmichael, MSLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 235 lbReturning
#12Ja'Bryis StewartCrystal Springs, MSLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 215 lbReturning
#10Jalen SmithGrayson, GALB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 230 lbReturning
#13LaKendrick JamesShelby, MSLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 250 lbReturning
#11Tyler LockhartKilmichael, MSLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 225 lbReturning
#41Tyshun WillisCamden, MSLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 250 lbReturning
#7Zakari TillmanFlorence, MSLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 235 lbReturning
#6Kolin WilsonGulf Shores, ALRB0.4 pts46% role · 64% conf.5′9″ · 190 lbReturning
#5Xavier GaytenBrookhaven, MSRB0.4 pts52% role · 64% conf.6′0″ · 205 lbReturning
#80Kyle FerrieSearcy, ARPK0.3 pts44% role · 52% conf.6′1″ · 205 lbReturning
#47William WilkinsonOxford, MSPK0.3 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 185 lbReturning
#88Ethan PulliamStarkville, MSP0.3 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 190 lbReturning
#39Kallen CosperHumble, TXLS0.3 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 215 lbReturning
#15Parker PuckettFlowood, MSQB0.2 pts4% starter · 40% conf.6′0″ · 180 lbReturning
#79Dalton ToothmanVancleave, MSOT0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′5″ · 320 lbNew / unverified
—Kison ShepardMemphis, TNOT0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′7″ · 330 lbNew / unverified
—Dylan SteenDoral, FLOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′5″ · 295 lbNew / unverified
#76Jayden RossOcean Springs, MSOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′6″ · 330 lbNew / unverified
#73Leon Noil Jr.New Orleans, LAOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′5″ · 285 lbNew / unverified
—Shawn GeeBirmingham, ALEDGE0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 240 lbNew / unverified
#19Micah NickersonMagnolia, MSDE0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′5″ · 250 lbNew / unverified
#90Davon YoungMobile, ALDL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 305 lbNew / unverified
—Douglas Adams IIISan Francisco, CADL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 240 lbNew / unverified
#92Kaleb MorrisMobile, ALDL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 275 lbNew / unverified
—Lorenz CammonUpland, CADL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 260 lbNew / unverified
#88Tico Crittendon Jr.Lithonia, GADL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 310 lbNew / unverified
#22Brinston WilliamsSuwanee, GARB0.2 pts27% role · 52% conf.6′2″ · 215 lbNew / unverified
#10Bull MitchellFort Valley, GAWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′11″ · 210 lbNew / unverified
#9Camden CapehartWinnsboro, TXWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′8″ · 170 lbNew / unverified
—Fisher SouthallFairhope, ALWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 185 lbNew / unverified
—Jayden CrationCanton, MSWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 185 lbNew / unverified
#22Jayytee TaylorMacon, MSWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 195 lbNew / unverified
#19Junior HendersonCarthage, TXWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 190 lbNew / unverified
#12Matt MayfieldSunset, LAWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 185 lbNew / unverified
—Zion CrumptonMontgomery, ALWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 165 lbNew / unverified
#84Adam LandPanama City, FLTE0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 230 lbNew / unverified
#85Luke HutchinsonNashville, TNTE0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 235 lbNew / unverified
#4Zayion CottonGrenada, MSTE0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′5″ · 230 lbNew / unverified
#30Camron BrownValdosta, GACB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 180 lbNew / unverified
—Dre OteyMurfreesboro, TNCB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 160 lbNew / unverified
—Terrell Johnson Jr.Lexington, MSCB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 180 lbNew / unverified
—Antavious WattsColumbus, GAS0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 185 lbNew / unverified
#29Boogie JohnsonHooks, TXS0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 200 lbNew / unverified
#6Bralan WomackBrandon, MSS0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 210 lbNew / unverified
#21Dre RileyCharleston, MSS0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 185 lbNew / unverified
#25Kolby BarrettChattanooga, TNS0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 210 lbNew / unverified
—Chris AddisonWinnsboro, LALB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 250 lbNew / unverified
#14Brodie McWhorterKingston, GAQB0.2 pts4% starter · 28% conf.6′2″ · 220 lbNew / unverified
#25Cooper CrosbyGulfport, MSRB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 205 lbNew / unverified
#21J.J. HillTupelo, MSRB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 220 lbNew / unverified
#48Hayden ChambersFort Payne, ALPK0.1 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 185 lbNew / unverified
—Oisin FlynnDublinPK0.1 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 200 lbNew / unverified
#46Kyle RushingMccomb, MSLS0.1 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 200 lbNew / unverified
2026 schedule
The path that shapes the projection.
The model prices every scheduled game individually. Home field, neutral sites, completed results and opponent rating feed the expected-win total shown above.
WeekOpponentSiteDate / result
1UL MonroeNon-conference · Davis Wade Stadium · 4M 18–34 · 81% win
HomeSep 57:30 PM EDT · model ↗2
MinnesotaNon-conference · Huntington Bank Stadium · 4M 24–27 · 44% win
AwaySep 123:30 PM EDT · model ↗3
South CarolinaConference · Williams-Brice Stadium · 4M 22–29 · 35% win
AwaySep 194:15 PM EDT · model ↗4
MissouriConference · Davis Wade Stadium · 4M 28–22 · 39% win
HomeSep 2612:00 AM EDT · model ↗5
AlabamaConference · Davis Wade Stadium · 4M 29–22 · 33% win
HomeOct 312:00 AM EDT · model ↗7
LSUConference · Tiger Stadium (LA) · 4M 20–29 · 31% win
AwayOct 1712:00 AM EDT · model ↗8
OklahomaConference · Davis Wade Stadium · 4M 28–21 · 35% win
HomeOct 2412:00 AM EDT · model ↗9
TexasConference · DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium · 4M 19–33 · 21% win
AwayOct 3112:00 AM EDT · model ↗10
VanderbiltConference · Davis Wade Stadium · 4M 30–25 · 38% win
HomeNov 712:00 AM EST · model ↗11
AuburnConference · Davis Wade Stadium · 4M 27–23 · 42% win
HomeNov 1412:00 AM EST · model ↗12
Tennessee TechNon-conference · Davis Wade Stadium · 4M 17–35 · 84% win
HomeNov 211:00 PM EST · model ↗13Ole MissConference · Vaught-Hemingway Stadium · 4M 20–33 · 25% win
AwayNov 2712:00 PM EST · model ↗
Range of outcomes
The projection is the middle—not the ceiling.
Floor case2 wins
Instability at premium positions turns swing games into losses.
4M midpoint4 wins
The roster performs close to its current power and schedule baseline.
Ceiling case6 wins
Quarterback play and line continuity outperform the preseason prior.
The betting lens
Price and matchup decide the play.
No team is an automatic bet or fade. The goal is to identify when the market's story about Mississippi State diverges from the football conditions required to cover.
The number is below a full possession and Mississippi State's best unit attacks a verified opponent weakness.
A difficult opponent is paired with short rest, uncertain quarterback availability or a line that assumes best-case continuity.
Early-down success rate, pressure allowed and defensive explosive-play rate. Two stable categories would justify an upgrade.
Season-defining questionCan the roster hold its efficiency when the schedule produces SEC-level stress almost every week?