The 2026 outlook
Will line play and quarterback consistency survive the Big Ten's deepest tier of contenders?
Northwestern opens No. 43 nationally and No. 11 of 18 in the Big Ten. The 4M baseline rates the roster 3.7 points above an average FBS team on a neutral field and projects 4.9 regular-season wins.
Northwestern sits near the model's break-even line, where quarterback development and close-game execution matter more than brand. A bowl is attainable, but the margin is too thin to assume last year's record—or a splashy transfer class—will repeat without supporting efficiency.
There are enough playable pieces to compete, but the roster needs a dependable identity. Stable quarterback efficiency or an obvious line-of-scrimmage advantage would lift the ceiling. Portal additions matter only if their roles translate into protection, pressure or explosive-play creation.
The schedule is a defining variable: it projects No. 20 nationally, with No. 1 representing the hardest slate. Northwestern can play good football and still finish below public expectations if it loses the possession battles in its highest-leverage games. This is why the 4.9-win projection may look conservative relative to the power rating.
Personnel command center
Who is back, who arrived and who has to matter.
The roster is grouped by continuity because returning snaps and proven transfer production are more useful than raw headcount. “New / unverified” means the player did not match last season's roster or the incoming portal file—not that the player is necessarily a freshman.
Head coachDavid Braun19–19 over the available CFBD career window
Staff continuityReturning head coachContinuity is treated as context, not an automatic upgrade.
Portal ledger17 in · 8 outImpact is weighted by rating, position and prior usage.
Position-group modelPremium roles separated.Fifty is FBS average. Quarterback includes the modeled starter probability, not merely the best name in the room.
4M player valueHighest-leverage rolesMaximum point value assumes the player is fully unavailable and is reduced by status probability.
PlayerPos.4M valueSizeContinuity
#0Aidan ChilesLong Beach, CAQB3.5 pts62% starter · 76% conf.6′4″ · 225 lbTransfer infrom Michigan State
#4Nicco MarchiolChandler, AZQB1.8 pts36% starter · 76% conf.6′2″ · 220 lbTransfer infrom West Virginia
#86Alex HonigBavariaTE0.6 pts44% role · 64% conf.6′6″ · 275 lbTransfer infrom UConn
#27Gavin SawchukLittleton, CORB0.6 pts64% role · 76% conf.6′0″ · 205 lbTransfer infrom Florida State
#75Arkel AnugwomAntioch, TNOL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′7″ · 330 lbTransfer infrom Alabama
#61David AnchondoSterling Heights, MIOL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′7″ · 315 lbTransfer infrom Saginaw Valley State
#74Grant SeagrenOakland, NEOL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′7″ · 320 lbTransfer infrom Oklahoma State
#5Dominic KirksCleveland, OHDL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 275 lbTransfer infrom Ohio State
#93Glory Stephen-WangbojeHillside, NJDL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 300 lbTransfer infrom Sacred Heart
#24Jamaal JohnsonMiami, FLDL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 250 lbTransfer infrom UCF
#84Luke DehnickeAndover, MNTE0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′6″ · 240 lbTransfer infrom Minnesota Duluth
#7Mar'Kel PorterLancaster, TXRB0.4 pts49% role · 76% conf.5′11″ · 215 lbTransfer infrom Bowling Green
#3Brenden DeasfernandesDetroit, MIDB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 200 lbTransfer infrom Central Michigan
#4Montae PateLas Vegas, NVDB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 175 lbTransfer infrom Weber State
#2Kobie McKinzieLubbock, TXLB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 235 lbTransfer infrom Oklahoma
#90Jackson KleatherTipp City, OHPK0.3 pts38% role · 52% conf.5′10″ · 190 lbTransfer infrom Bowling Green
#60Evan BoutorwickMacomb, MILS0.3 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 240 lbTransfer infrom Michigan
#17Griffin WildeSioux Falls, SDWR0.9 pts63% role · 64% conf.6′2″ · 200 lbReturning
#8Hayden Eligon IILakewood, CAWR0.8 pts57% role · 64% conf.6′4″ · 210 lbReturning
#5Caleb KomolafeKaty, TXRB0.8 pts84% role · 76% conf.5′11″ · 210 lbReturning
#19Drew WagnerDelafield, WIWR0.6 pts56% role · 64% conf.5′10″ · 195 lbReturning
#20Chase FarrellThousand Oaks, CAWR0.6 pts47% role · 64% conf.5′10″ · 180 lbReturning
#87Carson GroveArlington Heights, ILWR0.6 pts47% role · 64% conf.5′11″ · 195 lbReturning
#41Robby PreckelWildwood, MOTE0.6 pts63% role · 76% conf.6′3″ · 230 lbReturning
#64Anthony BirsaPlainfield, ILOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 305 lbReturning
#71Dennis RahouskiEden Prairie, MNOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 300 lbReturning
#73Deuce McGuireChicago, ILOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 310 lbReturning
#62Ezomo OratokhaiAustin, TXOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 310 lbReturning
#77Idrys CottonCanton, MIOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 305 lbReturning
#67Jace BorcherdingCedar Rapids, IAOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 300 lbReturning
#65Jackson CarselloNorthbrook, ILOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 300 lbReturning
#76Michael O'ConnellGlen Ellyn, ILOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′7″ · 315 lbReturning
#69Patrick SchallerNorthbrook, ILOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′6″ · 295 lbReturning
#78Trey BoydShakopee, MNOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 300 lbReturning
#6Joseph Himon IILittle Rock, ARRB0.6 pts70% role · 76% conf.5′9″ · 195 lbReturning
#10Ricky AhumaraezeLiberty, MOWR0.6 pts52% role · 64% conf.6′4″ · 210 lbReturning
#3Frank Covey IVMount Prospect, ILWR0.6 pts56% role · 64% conf.6′1″ · 200 lbReturning
#97Braxton StrongPeru, INDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 255 lbReturning
#15Brendan FlakesWinter Garden, FLDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 295 lbReturning
#91Caden O'RourkeMokena, ILDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 250 lbReturning
#44Callen CampbellSault Sainte Marie, MIDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 260 lbReturning
#55Dylan RobertsPhoenix, AZDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 300 lbReturning
#90Jack TrautmannElmhurst, ILDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 250 lbReturning
#96Jonah HayesLoveland, OHDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′6″ · 260 lbReturning
#98Landon LauterNorthbrook, ILDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 290 lbReturning
#92Mason GreenBrentwood, TNDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 250 lbReturning
#95Mason MayneLawton, MIDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 290 lbReturning
#47Michael KilbaneLakewood, OHDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 280 lbReturning
#88Migo JacksonGibsonia, PADL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 305 lbReturning
#53Tanner JumppLake Mary, FLDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 280 lbReturning
#99Troy RegovichChesterland, OHDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 290 lbReturning
#54Tyler GantSaint Louis, MODL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 300 lbReturning
#80Braden BlueittColleyville, TXWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 205 lbReturning
#16Brennan SaxePalatine, ILWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 195 lbReturning
#89Cam RussellMilwaukee, WIWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 215 lbReturning
#18Camp MageeOrlando, FLWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 210 lbReturning
#14Dube EnongeneAtlanta, GAWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 200 lbReturning
#83Blake Van BurenMiddleton, WITE0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 245 lbReturning
#81Chris PetrucciPark Ridge, ILTE0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 245 lbReturning
#43Noah LaPortePrinceton, ILTE0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′6″ · 235 lbReturning
#48Tyler KielmeyerWesterville, OHTE0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′6″ · 240 lbReturning
#0Alijah JonesBaltimore, MDDB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 195 lbReturning
#9Braden TurnerMobile, ALDB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 200 lbReturning
#23Cole ShiversScottsdale, AZDB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 180 lbReturning
#21Damon WaltersBolingbrook, ILDB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 195 lbReturning
#16J.J. LewisLawndale, CADB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 205 lbReturning
#27Jack OyolaAlpharetta, GADB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 200 lbReturning
#26Jalen LewisWestlake Village, CADB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′9″ · 200 lbReturning
#29Jon Jon Stevens Jr.Columbus, OHDB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 200 lbReturning
#13Josh FussellWest Chester, OHDB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 190 lbReturning
#25Marquet Dorsey Jr.Wayne, NJDB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 195 lbReturning
#7Ore AdeyiMansfield, TXDB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 200 lbReturning
#6Robert FitzgeraldDallas, TXDB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 210 lbReturning
#35Sean MartinCleveland, OHDB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 190 lbReturning
#11Seth ValeriWheaton, ILDB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 190 lbReturning
#22Terrion Curry-HicksLexington, KYDB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 185 lbReturning
#28Timi OkeLondonDB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 190 lbReturning
#31Tito Williams Jr.Chattanooga, TNDB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 190 lbReturning
#33Braydon BrusGlendora, CALB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 230 lbReturning
#45Jack Sadowsky VBatavia, ILLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 230 lbReturning
#40Jason Reynolds IIMcdonough, GALB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 230 lbReturning
#38Josh VeldmanNew Lenox, ILLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 220 lbReturning
#46Lincoln CreagerHamler, OHLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 220 lbReturning
#32Matthew SmithDurham, NCLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 225 lbReturning
#51Miles CrutchleyScottsdale, AZLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 220 lbReturning
#42Nigel GloverClayton, OHLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 225 lbReturning
#34Payton RothPortland, ORLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 230 lbReturning
#22Daniel AndersonAlexander, ARRB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 210 lbReturning
#12Marcus RomainMarietta, GARB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 215 lbReturning
#94Henry HelmsChicago, ILPK0.3 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 180 lbReturning
#92Nikola DugandzicWinnetka, ILP0.3 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 215 lbReturning
#59Jack FlorentineFrankfort, ILLS0.3 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 210 lbReturning
#13Gavin FrakesNorman, OKQB0.2 pts4% starter · 40% conf.6′4″ · 235 lbReturning
#15Sean WintonElmhurst, ILQB0.2 pts4% starter · 40% conf.6′2″ · 200 lbReturning
#2Ryan BoeBatavia, ILQB0.1 pts4% starter · 64% conf.6′3″ · 215 lbReturning
#52Angelo De SensiLombard, ILOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′5″ · 290 lbNew / unverified
#60Hayden FlavinClarkston, MIOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′7″ · 300 lbNew / unverified
#72Jack FuchsHendersonville, TNOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′8″ · 300 lbNew / unverified
#79Jacob MillerHamilton, MOOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′7″ · 270 lbNew / unverified
#70Leighton BurbachNorfolk, NEOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′8″ · 280 lbNew / unverified
#50Owen ForsBarrington, ILOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 305 lbNew / unverified
#66Owen JakubczakPalatine, ILOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 285 lbNew / unverified
#68Quinn WicklowPortland, OROL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′7″ · 295 lbNew / unverified
#52Calvin LorekLoveland, OHDL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 280 lbNew / unverified
#94Gage LaDereFrankfort, ILDL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 270 lbNew / unverified
#57Nick CostaMullica Hill, NJDL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 250 lbNew / unverified
#63Nick ZalewskiWorthington, OHDL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′6″ · 235 lbNew / unverified
#58Ronald Derrick IIIWaco, TXDL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′5″ · 260 lbNew / unverified
#56Tre HoskinsWarsaw, ILDL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′5″ · 310 lbNew / unverified
#82Jaden McDuffieEdgewater, MDWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 190 lbNew / unverified
#11Keaton ReinkeSt. Charles, ILWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 210 lbNew / unverified
#85Tom McGlincheyWarrington, PATE0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′6″ · 240 lbNew / unverified
#12Gabe Davis-RayColumbus, OHDB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 200 lbNew / unverified
#17Jaden VaughnHouston, TXDB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 195 lbNew / unverified
#36Nate DawsonCincinnati, OHDB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 200 lbNew / unverified
#49Amare JordanCedar Park, TXLB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 210 lbNew / unverified
#37Max MohringDowningtown, PALB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 220 lbNew / unverified
#39Parker MaiersIndianapolis, INLB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 230 lbNew / unverified
#50Qayvier JohnsonNew Haven, CTLB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 225 lbNew / unverified
#11Aidan GrayNaperville, ILQB0.2 pts4% starter · 28% conf.6′3″ · 215 lbNew / unverified
#9Johnny O'BrienPalatine, ILQB0.2 pts4% starter · 28% conf.6′3″ · 200 lbNew / unverified
#36Sean Morris IICompton, CARB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′10″ · 210 lbNew / unverified
#98Noah SurWestern Springs, ILPK0.1 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 185 lbNew / unverified
#95Marko DubakChicago, ILP0.1 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 200 lbNew / unverified
2026 schedule
The path that shapes the projection.
The model prices every scheduled game individually. Home field, neutral sites, completed results and opponent rating feed the expected-win total shown above.
WeekOpponentSiteDate / result
1South Dakota StateNon-conference · Lanny and Sharon Martin Stadium · 4M 19–33 · 78% win
HomeSep 58:00 PM EDT · model ↗3ColoradoNon-conference · Lanny and Sharon Martin Stadium · 4M 22–30 · 66% win
HomeSep 197:30 PM EDT · model ↗4
IndianaConference · Memorial Stadium (Bloomington, IN) · 4M 18–34 · 18% win
AwaySep 258:00 PM EDT · model ↗5
Penn StateConference · Ryan Field · 4M 29–23 · 38% win
HomeOct 28:00 PM EDT · model ↗6
Ball StateNon-conference · Ryan Field · 4M 15–35 · 86% win
HomeOct 1012:00 AM EDT · model ↗7
Michigan StateConference · Spartan Stadium · 4M 27–25 · 56% win
AwayOct 1712:00 AM EDT · model ↗8
RutgersConference · Ryan Field · 4M 25–29 · 60% win
HomeOct 2412:00 AM EDT · model ↗9
OregonConference · Autzen Stadium · 4M 17–35 · 15% win
AwayOct 3112:00 AM EDT · model ↗10
IowaConference · Ryan Field · 4M 27–24 · 42% win
HomeNov 712:00 AM EST · model ↗11
Ohio StateConference · Ohio Stadium · 4M 15–36 · 12% win
AwayNov 1412:00 AM EST · model ↗12
MinnesotaConference · Huntington Bank Stadium · 4M 25–26 · 47% win
AwayNov 2112:00 AM EST · model ↗13
IllinoisConference · Ryan Field · 4M 27–25 · 46% win
HomeNov 2812:00 AM EST · model ↗
Range of outcomes
The projection is the middle—not the ceiling.
Floor case3 wins
Instability at premium positions turns swing games into losses.
4M midpoint5 wins
The roster performs close to its current power and schedule baseline.
Ceiling case7 wins
Quarterback play and line continuity outperform the preseason prior.
The betting lens
Price and matchup decide the play.
No team is an automatic bet or fade. The goal is to identify when the market's story about Northwestern diverges from the football conditions required to cover.
The number is below a full possession and Northwestern's best unit attacks a verified opponent weakness.
A difficult opponent is paired with short rest, uncertain quarterback availability or a line that assumes best-case continuity.
Early-down success rate, pressure allowed and defensive explosive-play rate. Two stable categories would justify an upgrade.
Season-defining questionWill line play and quarterback consistency survive the Big Ten's deepest tier of contenders?