The 2026 outlook
Is there enough week-to-week consistency to turn ACC opportunity into a conference-title run?
Wake Forest opens No. 50 nationally and No. 11 of 17 in the ACC. The 4M baseline rates the roster 3.2 points above an average FBS team on a neutral field and projects 5.5 regular-season wins.
Wake Forest sits near the model's break-even line, where quarterback development and close-game execution matter more than brand. A bowl is attainable, but the margin is too thin to assume last year's record—or a splashy transfer class—will repeat without supporting efficiency.
There are enough playable pieces to compete, but the roster needs a dependable identity. Stable quarterback efficiency or an obvious line-of-scrimmage advantage would lift the ceiling. Portal additions matter only if their roles translate into protection, pressure or explosive-play creation.
The schedule grades No. 59 nationally—enough resistance to expose weaknesses without defining the entire year. A small group of swing games should determine whether Wake Forest beats its 5.5-win projection, placing extra value on special teams, fourth-down decisions and late-game quarterback play.
Personnel command center
Who is back, who arrived and who has to matter.
The roster is grouped by continuity because returning snaps and proven transfer production are more useful than raw headcount. “New / unverified” means the player did not match last season's roster or the incoming portal file—not that the player is necessarily a freshman.
Head coachJake Dickert32–24 over the available CFBD career window
Staff continuityReturning head coachContinuity is treated as context, not an automatic upgrade.
Portal ledger24 in · 23 outImpact is weighted by rating, position and prior usage.
Position-group modelPremium roles separated.Fifty is FBS average. Quarterback includes the modeled starter probability, not merely the best name in the room.
4M player valueHighest-leverage rolesMaximum point value assumes the player is fully unavailable and is reduced by status probability.
PlayerPos.4M valueSizeContinuity
#3Gio LopezMadison, ALQB5.1 pts94% starter · 64% conf.6′0″ · 203 lbTransfer infrom North Carolina
#7Wondame Davis Jr.Ennis, TXWR0.7 pts50% role · 64% conf.6′1″ · 180 lbTransfer infrom UTEP
#24Sawyer SeidlHugo, MNRB0.7 pts74% role · 64% conf.5′10″ · 175 lbTransfer infrom North Dakota
#81Landon MorrisIndianapolis, INTE0.6 pts43% role · 64% conf.6′5″ · 240 lbTransfer infrom California
#9Chase TylerPowder Springs, GAWR0.6 pts41% role · 64% conf.6′2″ · 200 lbTransfer infrom Duke
#5Kam ShanksPrattville, ALWR0.5 pts43% role · 64% conf.5′8″ · 169 lbTransfer infrom Arkansas
#56Ethan CallowayMooresville, NCOL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′7″ · 305 lbTransfer infrom LSU
#74John OhnegianRamsey, NJOL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 304 lbTransfer infrom Bucknell
#64Ryan BergerPortland, OROL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 318 lbTransfer infrom Oregon State
#55Tolu OlajideLawrenceville, NJOL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 300 lbTransfer infrom New Hampshire
#70Will WayTucson, AZOL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 290 lbTransfer infrom Weber State
#18D.J. JohnsonWilbraham, MADL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 248 lbTransfer infrom New Hampshire
#97Matt HerronHolladay, UTDL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 280 lbTransfer infrom Weber State
#90Sydir MitchellPaterson, NJDL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′6″ · 355 lbTransfer infrom LSU
#1KD DanielsWest Point, MSRB0.4 pts48% role · 64% conf.6′0″ · 203 lbTransfer infrom Florida
#11Ny CarrMoultrie, GAWR0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 185 lbTransfer infrom Miami
#3Bernard CauseyNew Orleans, LADB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 165 lbTransfer infrom Georgia State
#7Buom JockMankato, MNLB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 235 lbTransfer infrom California
#12Tylan McNicholsDecatur, MSLB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 220 lbTransfer infrom UAB
#23Vincent FirenzeSyracuse, NYLB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 221 lbTransfer infrom Dayton
#8Carlos HernandezAlhambra, CAWR0.8 pts58% role · 64% conf.6′0″ · 192 lbReturning
#12Kamrean JohnsonBirmingham, ALTE0.7 pts49% role · 64% conf.6′5″ · 230 lbReturning
#72Aidan MartinDenver, COOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′6″ · 265 lbReturning
#65Clinton RichardHiram, GAOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 305 lbReturning
#75Derrell Johnson IIJacksonville, FLOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 306 lbReturning
#51Devin McRaeMcRae, GAOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 294 lbReturning
#67Elliot DemaineOttawa, ONOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′7″ · 280 lbReturning
#73George SteihFranklin, TNOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 295 lbReturning
#50Ja'Marion KennedyShreveport, LAOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 323 lbReturning
#78Jack HinesAvon, CTOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′7″ · 311 lbReturning
#62Jaishaun OffuttWinchester, VAOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 342 lbReturning
#68Luke BeemerNashville, TNOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 313 lbReturning
#52Uber AjongoOttawa, ONOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′6″ · 308 lbReturning
#60Will SabaPurcellville, VAOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 272 lbReturning
#4Ty Clark IIINashville, TNRB0.6 pts56% role · 64% conf.6′0″ · 207 lbReturning
#95Brandon SmileyDurham, NCDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 306 lbReturning
#9Camden HardyJacksonville, FLDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 231 lbReturning
#52Dallas AfalavaSeattle, WADL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 291 lbReturning
#10Gabe KirschkeLone Tree, CODL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 249 lbReturning
#99Josiah PrattHouston, TXDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 315 lbReturning
#55Kadear DembeleWest Haven, CTDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 285 lbReturning
#20Kerrington LeePalm Beach Gardens, FLDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 252 lbReturning
#11Langston HardyJacksonville, FLDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 250 lbReturning
#14Tyler WaltonSuwanee, GADL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 265 lbReturning
#94Zach LohavichanCharlotte, NCDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 285 lbReturning
#80Braxton Winston IIICharlotte, NCWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 175 lbReturning
#88Bryce KaniaChatham, NJWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 200 lbReturning
#28Hugh O'BrienCharlotte, NCWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 190 lbReturning
#23Zeek JacksonBaltimore, MDWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′6″ · 158 lbReturning
#87Charlie WingfieldFranklin Lakes, NJTE0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 239 lbReturning
#48Matthew LusardiHometown not listedTE0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 247 lbReturning
#85Will LoerzelNew Orleans, LATE0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 244 lbReturning
#10Jack FoleyBend, ORWR0.5 pts49% role · 64% conf.6′4″ · 205 lbReturning
#13Ashaad WilliamsRussellville, ALDB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 178 lbReturning
#8Braylon JohnsonRichmond, VADB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 185 lbReturning
#5Davaughn PattersonJacksonville, FLDB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 217 lbReturning
#15Devin CookChesapeake, VADB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 170 lbReturning
#26Freddie GillensColumbia, SCDB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 171 lbReturning
#29Jake RyanMinden, NEDB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 199 lbReturning
#30Jerron BlackwellGreensboro, NCDB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 190 lbReturning
#35Koredell BartleyGreensboro, NCDB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 173 lbReturning
#22Myles TurpinAshburn, VADB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 202 lbReturning
#6Rushaun TonguePasadena, MDDB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 193 lbReturning
#4Sascha GarciaClinton, MDDB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 192 lbReturning
#36Seth CarethersCoppell, TXDB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 165 lbReturning
#27Travon WestPiedmont, SCDB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 185 lbReturning
#17Zamari StevensonStatesville, NCDB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 180 lbReturning
#21Aiden HallPleasant Grove, ALLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 231 lbReturning
#43Frank CusanoGranite Bay, CALB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 222 lbReturning
#32Joel LowenbergChattanooga, TNLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 210 lbReturning
#40Whittman WhaleySevierville, TNLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 222 lbReturning
#29Jamar SearcyPittsburg, CARB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′8″ · 180 lbReturning
#41Kalil TownesAtlanta, GARB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 200 lbReturning
#27Ryan HenleyCharlotte, NCRB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′9″ · 199 lbReturning
#97Caleb CarlsonCoconut Grove, FLPK0.3 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 210 lbReturning
#90Connor CalvertBend, ORPK0.3 pts44% role · 52% conf.6′3″ · 203 lbReturning
#96Jack PloszayMalvern, PAP0.3 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 191 lbReturning
#49Eli GilmourSan Diego, CALS0.3 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 218 lbReturning
#13Billy JohnsonAtherton, CAQB0.2 pts4% starter · 40% conf.5′11″ · 180 lbReturning
#6Steele PizzellaSimi Valley, CAQB0.2 pts4% starter · 40% conf.5′11″ · 180 lbReturning
#79Langston HoggKennesaw, GAOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 280 lbNew / unverified
#93Cade HollesCentennial, CODL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′6″ · 240 lbNew / unverified
#91Lucas Smalls-AllenRoswell, GADL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 270 lbNew / unverified
#25Eli PottsBrock, TXWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′10″ · 190 lbNew / unverified
#20Elijah OtienoForney, TXWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′9″ · 160 lbNew / unverified
#83Kobe Adeleke-HokesAtlanta, GAWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′11″ · 185 lbNew / unverified
#38Walker BrysonWaynesville, NCWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 185 lbNew / unverified
#84Dominick BarryGreenwood, INTE0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 240 lbNew / unverified
#86Max Tillfeldt RetslerStockholmTE0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′7″ · 240 lbNew / unverified
#28AJ MarksDetroit, MIDB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′11″ · 185 lbNew / unverified
#2Deuce Blades IIFort Lauderdale, FLDB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′11″ · 180 lbNew / unverified
#25Joshua PattersonJacksonville, FLDB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′11″ · 195 lbNew / unverified
#24Micah BrightConcord, NCDB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′11″ · 185 lbNew / unverified
#34Micheal AhouaTorrington, CTDB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 190 lbNew / unverified
#38Somad EaddyGreenville, SCDB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 160 lbNew / unverified
#37Trey Warren IIIPahokee, FLDB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′11″ · 185 lbNew / unverified
#46Deuce DyceHamden, CTLB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 215 lbNew / unverified
#42Isaac NelsonIndianapolis, INLB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 215 lbNew / unverified
#44Monroe PartinDaphne, ALLB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 225 lbNew / unverified
#15Gannon JonesCary, NCQB0.2 pts4% starter · 28% conf.5′11″ · 175 lbNew / unverified
#17Grant LawlessDenver, NCQB0.2 pts4% starter · 28% conf.6′4″ · 195 lbNew / unverified
#22Deuce LawrenceTallahassee, FLRB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′8″ · 190 lbNew / unverified
#45Ethan HyamsCastlecrag, NSWP0.1 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 215 lbNew / unverified
2026 schedule
The path that shapes the projection.
The model prices every scheduled game individually. Home field, neutral sites, completed results and opponent rating feed the expected-win total shown above.
WeekOpponentSiteDate / result
1AkronNon-conference · Allegacy Federal Credit Union Stadium · 4M 15–32 · 83% win
HomeSep 37:00 PM EDT · model ↗2
PurdueNon-conference · Ross-Ade Stadium · 4M 26–24 · 54% win
AwaySep 1212:00 PM EDT · model ↗3
MiamiConference · Allegacy Federal Credit Union Stadium · 4M 30–19 · 27% win
HomeSep 187:30 PM EDT · model ↗4
LouisvilleConference · L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium · 4M 20–27 · 34% win
AwaySep 2612:00 AM EDT · model ↗5
StanfordConference · Allegacy Federal Credit Union Stadium · 4M 19–29 · 71% win
HomeOct 312:00 AM EDT · model ↗6
NC StateConference · Carter-Finley Stadium · 4M 23–27 · 42% win
AwayOct 1012:00 AM EDT · model ↗7
CaliforniaConference · California Memorial Stadium · 4M 24–24 · 50% win
AwayOct 1712:00 AM EDT · model ↗9
VirginiaConference · Allegacy Federal Credit Union Stadium · 4M 23–24 · 52% win
HomeOct 3112:00 AM EDT · model ↗10
MerrimackNon-conference · Allegacy Federal Credit Union Stadium · 4M 10–40 · 95% win
HomeNov 712:00 PM EST · model ↗11SMUConference · Gerald J. Ford Stadium · 4M 21–29 · 34% win
AwayNov 1412:00 AM EST · model ↗12
Georgia TechConference · Bobby Dodd Stadium · 4M 24–27 · 44% win
AwayNov 2112:00 AM EST · model ↗13
DukeConference · Allegacy Federal Credit Union Stadium · 4M 25–27 · 55% win
HomeNov 2812:00 AM EST · model ↗
Range of outcomes
The projection is the middle—not the ceiling.
Floor case3 wins
Instability at premium positions turns swing games into losses.
4M midpoint6 wins
The roster performs close to its current power and schedule baseline.
Ceiling case8 wins
Quarterback play and line continuity outperform the preseason prior.
The betting lens
Price and matchup decide the play.
No team is an automatic bet or fade. The goal is to identify when the market's story about Wake Forest diverges from the football conditions required to cover.
The number is below a full possession and Wake Forest's best unit attacks a verified opponent weakness.
The offense must play from behind, protect for long-yardage throws and generate explosives simply to reach the market expectation.
Early-down success rate, pressure allowed and defensive explosive-play rate. Two stable categories would justify an upgrade.
Season-defining questionIs there enough week-to-week consistency to turn ACC opportunity into a conference-title run?