The 2026 outlook
Can Bobby Petrino create functional offense quickly enough to support a defense that deserved better?
North Carolina opens No. 80 nationally and No. 14 of 17 in the ACC. The 4M baseline rates the roster 2.7 points below an average FBS team on a neutral field and projects 3.8 regular-season wins.
North Carolina profiles as competitive but opponent-sensitive. It can win when the matchup protects its weak points, yet it does not have enough week-to-week talent separation to survive poor early-down offense, lost field position and a negative turnover margin at the same time.
Edwards, Miles O'Neil and freshman Travis Burgess reset the quarterback room, while both leading rushers return. Several transfer linemen and a deeper tight-end group give Petrino more options than the 2025 offense had.
The schedule grades No. 28 nationally—enough resistance to expose weaknesses without defining the entire year. A small group of swing games should determine whether North Carolina beats its 3.8-win projection, placing extra value on special teams, fourth-down decisions and late-game quarterback play.
Pressure pointBilly Edwards · QB2025: 4–8
Personnel command center
Who is back, who arrived and who has to matter.
The roster is grouped by continuity because returning snaps and proven transfer production are more useful than raw headcount. “New / unverified” means the player did not match last season's roster or the incoming portal file—not that the player is necessarily a freshman.
Head coachBill Belichick4–8 over the available CFBD career window
Staff continuityReturning head coachContinuity is treated as context, not an automatic upgrade.
Portal ledger19 in · 31 outImpact is weighted by rating, position and prior usage.
Position-group modelPremium roles separated.Fifty is FBS average. Quarterback includes the modeled starter probability, not merely the best name in the room.
4M player valueHighest-leverage rolesMaximum point value assumes the player is fully unavailable and is reduced by status probability.
PlayerPos.4M valueSizeContinuity
#9Billy Edwards Jr.Springfield, VAQB2.2 pts45% starter · 64% conf.6′3″ · 228 lbTransfer infrom Wisconsin
#19Jaxxon WarrenFlower Mound, TXTE0.7 pts55% role · 64% conf.6′8″ · 245 lbTransfer infrom Colorado State
#4Mason HumphreyLoganville, GAWR0.7 pts50% role · 64% conf.6′4″ · 215 lbTransfer infrom Lehigh
#2Trech KekahunaHonolulu, HIWR0.6 pts51% role · 64% conf.5′10″ · 185 lbTransfer infrom Wisconsin
#8Miles O'NeillMarblehead, MAQB0.6 pts15% starter · 64% conf.6′5″ · 220 lbTransfer infrom Texas A&M
#45Jelani ThurmanFairburn, GATE0.6 pts41% role · 64% conf.6′6″ · 250 lbTransfer infrom Ohio State
#80Jordan WashingtonHouston, TXTE0.5 pts43% role · 64% conf.6′4″ · 264 lbTransfer infrom Texas
#75Andrew ThreattChesterfield, SCOL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 315 lbTransfer infrom Charleston Southern
#55Brandon HomadyCleveland, OHOL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 298 lbTransfer infrom West Virginia
#52Rowan ByrneBronxville, NYOL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 296 lbTransfer infrom Clemson
#5Donovan Hoilette Jr.West Palm Beach, FLDL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 245 lbTransfer infrom Richmond
#11Jaylen HarveyGaithersburg, MDDL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 246 lbTransfer infrom Penn State
#14Tarvorise BrownMiami, FLDL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′7″ · 296 lbTransfer infrom Florida
#3Ade WillieBaltimore, MDDB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 190 lbTransfer infrom Michigan State
#15Derek McDonaldAtlanta, GALB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 230 lbTransfer infrom Syracuse
#10Peyton SeelmannMechanicsville, VALB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 225 lbTransfer infrom Richmond
#5Kaleb JacksonBaton Rouge, LARB0.3 pts44% role · 64% conf.6′0″ · 234 lbTransfer infrom LSU
#92Aeron BurrellBossier City, LAPK0.3 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 190 lbTransfer infrom LSU
#1Jordan ShippCharlotte, NCWR0.9 pts64% role · 64% conf.6′2″ · 190 lbReturning
#0Demon JuneJacksonville, NCRB0.6 pts69% role · 76% conf.5′11″ · 215 lbReturning
#68Aidan BanfieldBuford, GAOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 300 lbReturning
#70Byron NelsonKaty, TXOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 300 lbReturning
#56Christo KellyWilmette, ILOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 305 lbReturning
#72Eidan BuchananMontgomery Village, MDOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′9″ · 330 lbReturning
#66Jordan HallColumbus, OHOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′8″ · 336 lbReturning
#51Peter PesanskyTampa, FLOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 290 lbReturning
#77Trey BlueCary, NCOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′6″ · 330 lbReturning
#89Emmanuel NwaiwuChateauguay, PQDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 250 lbReturning
#0Isaiah JohnsonCamden, NJDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 320 lbReturning
#25Joseph MupoyiKinshasaDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 261 lbReturning
#91Leroy JacksonLeesburg, GADL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 290 lbReturning
#9Melkart Abou JaoudeNewton, NJDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 260 lbReturning
#96Nicco MaggioBuford, GADL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 290 lbReturning
#97Trey GiddensVirginia Beach, VADL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 275 lbReturning
#90Xavier LewisRaleigh, NCDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 250 lbReturning
#18Andres Miyares Jr.Miami, FLQB0.6 pts13% starter · 40% conf.6′1″ · 210 lbReturning
#10Au'Tori NewkirkNorfolk, VAQB0.6 pts13% starter · 40% conf.6′3″ · 200 lbReturning
#15DJ MazzoneAtlanta, GAQB0.6 pts13% starter · 40% conf.6′0″ · 175 lbReturning
#7Benjamin HallAcworth, GARB0.5 pts65% role · 76% conf.5′11″ · 235 lbReturning
#84Shamar EasterAshdown, ARTE0.5 pts47% role · 64% conf.6′5″ · 215 lbReturning
#11Nathan LeacockRolesville, NCWR0.5 pts49% role · 64% conf.6′3″ · 217 lbReturning
#6Dayton SneedHermitage, TNWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 196 lbReturning
#88Deems MayCharlotte, NCTE0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 230 lbReturning
#16Coleman BrysonWaynesville, NCDB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 210 lbReturning
#27Graham ReintjesAustin, TXDB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 185 lbReturning
#1Greg SmithRiverview, FLDB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 215 lbReturning
#18Jaiden PattersonDacula, GADB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 195 lbReturning
#4Jalon ThompsonOrlando, FLDB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 185 lbReturning
#24Javion ButtsGray, GADB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 175 lbReturning
#32Jermaine AndersonFredericksburg, VADB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 195 lbReturning
#2Kaleb CostAtlanta, GADB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 195 lbReturning
#23Khristian Dunbar-HawkinsInland Empire, CADB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 185 lbReturning
#7Peyton WatersNorthridge, CADB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 185 lbReturning
#19Reggie Love IIRaleigh, NCDB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′8″ · 175 lbReturning
#6Tre MillerBirmingham, ALDB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 180 lbReturning
#86Madrid TuckerLehigh Acres, FLWR0.5 pts47% role · 64% conf.5′10″ · 170 lbReturning
#95Daniel AndersonMemphis, TNLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 245 lbReturning
#44Jake BauerWest Chester, PALB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 225 lbReturning
#8Jonathan AgumaduDallas, TXLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 220 lbReturning
#43Lantz PascalFort Lauderdale, FLLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 225 lbReturning
#54Timir Hickman-CollinsFort Mill, SCLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 215 lbReturning
#33Tyler HouserSparta, NJLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 220 lbReturning
#27Jaylen McGillSpartanburg, SCRB0.4 pts51% role · 64% conf.5′10″ · 200 lbReturning
#23Charleston FrenchAmory, MSRB0.4 pts50% role · 64% conf.5′9″ · 205 lbReturning
#26JoJo TroupeTampa, FLRB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′8″ · 200 lbReturning
#47Henry MartelloCulver, INFB0.3 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 250 lbReturning
#93Jacob HorvathMelbourne, VICP0.3 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 190 lbReturning
#48Gannon BurtFort Mill, SCLS0.3 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 205 lbReturning
#79Anthony HallBrookline, MAOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 356 lbNew / unverified
#60Cristian AlvarezWoodcliff Lake, NJOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 285 lbNew / unverified
#67Dujuan DavisClearwater, FLOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′9″ · 380 lbNew / unverified
#73J.B. ShabazzWinston-Salem, NCOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′5″ · 333 lbNew / unverified
#71Jacqawn McroyBessemer, ALOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′8″ · 335 lbNew / unverified
#54Jonah RodriguezSan Diego, CAOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 294 lbNew / unverified
#74Nick FiumaraFoxborough, MAOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 297 lbNew / unverified
#57Will ConroyValley View, OHOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 290 lbNew / unverified
#65Zion SmithTownsend, DEOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 320 lbNew / unverified
#94David Jackson IIIWashington, DCDL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 208 lbNew / unverified
#92Jimmy-Phrisco Alo-SuliafuHauula, HIDL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 271 lbNew / unverified
#93Trashawn RuffinCalypso, NCDL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 350 lbNew / unverified
#56Viliami MoalaWest Valley City, UTDL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 357 lbNew / unverified
#88Vodney ClevelandMontgomery, ALDL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 320 lbNew / unverified
#29Zavion Griffin-HaynesRolesville, NCDL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′5″ · 235 lbNew / unverified
#14C.J. SadlerDetroit, MIWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′9″ · 183 lbNew / unverified
#83Carnell WarrenBluffton, SCWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 208 lbNew / unverified
#24Jaden JeffersonOakland, CAWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′9″ · 165 lbNew / unverified
#82Keeyun ChapmanJackson, ALWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 209 lbNew / unverified
#81Kymistrii YoungParrish, FLWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 192 lbNew / unverified
#17Nyqir HeltonSicklerville, NJWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′11″ · 182 lbNew / unverified
#16Zamaurious RobertsonDillon, SCWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 167 lbNew / unverified
#87Carson SneedNashville, TNTE0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′6″ · 242 lbNew / unverified
#85Dream RashadBuford, GATE0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′5″ · 222 lbNew / unverified
#34David DavisPittsburgh, PADB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 191 lbNew / unverified
#17Jakob WeatherspoonAvon, OHDB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′11″ · 165 lbNew / unverified
#28Jamarrion GordonJackson, ALDB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′11″ · 202 lbNew / unverified
#30Jaziel HartRoanoke, VADB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′11″ · 180 lbNew / unverified
#38Julian BurnsMonroe, LADB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 194 lbNew / unverified
#31Julian PetersonSicklerville, NJDB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 183 lbNew / unverified
#21Kenton Dopson IIIMiami, FLDB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 190 lbNew / unverified
#35Ashton BlattPittsburgh, PALB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 230 lbNew / unverified
#12Calvin ThomasHouston, TXLB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 207 lbNew / unverified
#26DQ ForkpaPlymouth, MNLB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 226 lbNew / unverified
#36Jayden Griffin-HaynesRolesville, NCLB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 198 lbNew / unverified
#42Jordan AvingerOrangeburg, SCLB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 221 lbNew / unverified
#3Travis BurgessGrayson, GAQB0.2 pts4% starter · 28% conf.6′4″ · 193 lbNew / unverified
#20Crew DavisFairfield, CTRB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′11″ · 199 lbNew / unverified
#97David GreenHigh Point, NCPK0.1 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′10″ · 183 lbNew / unverified
#91Adam Mccann-GibbsDonegalP0.1 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 208 lbNew / unverified
#40Roman WazniTampa, FLLS0.1 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 205 lbNew / unverified
2026 schedule
The path that shapes the projection.
The model prices every scheduled game individually. Home field, neutral sites, completed results and opponent rating feed the expected-win total shown above.
WeekOpponentSiteDate / result
1TCUNon-conference · Aviva Stadium · 4M 22–29 · 34% win
NeutralAug 2912:00 PM EDT · model ↗2
East Tennessee StateNon-conference · Kenan Stadium · 4M 16–35 · 85% win
HomeSep 1212:00 PM EDT · model ↗3ClemsonConference · Memorial Stadium (Clemson, SC) · 4M 20–31 · 27% win
AwaySep 1912:00 PM EDT · model ↗5
Notre DameNon-conference · Kenan Stadium · 4M 34–17 · 17% win
HomeOct 312:00 AM EDT · model ↗6
PittsburghConference · Acrisure Stadium · 4M 20–30 · 30% win
AwayOct 1012:00 AM EDT · model ↗7
DukeConference · Wallace Wade Stadium · 4M 23–30 · 36% win
AwayOct 1712:00 AM EDT · model ↗8
SyracuseConference · Kenan Stadium · 4M 22–28 · 62% win
HomeOct 2412:00 AM EDT · model ↗9
MiamiConference · Kenan Stadium · 4M 33–18 · 20% win
HomeOct 3112:00 AM EDT · model ↗10
UConnNon-conference · Pratt & Whitney Stadium · 4M 27–27 · 50% win
AwayNov 712:00 PM EST · model ↗11
LouisvilleConference · Kenan Stadium · 4M 29–21 · 33% win
HomeNov 1412:00 AM EST · model ↗12
VirginiaConference · Scott Stadium · 4M 21–29 · 32% win
AwayNov 2112:00 AM EST · model ↗13
NC StateConference · Kenan Stadium · 4M 28–24 · 41% win
HomeNov 2812:00 AM EST · model ↗
Range of outcomes
The projection is the middle—not the ceiling.
Floor case2 wins
Instability at premium positions turns swing games into losses.
4M midpoint4 wins
The roster performs close to its current power and schedule baseline.
Ceiling case6 wins
Quarterback play and line continuity outperform the preseason prior.
The betting lens
Price and matchup decide the play.
No team is an automatic bet or fade. The goal is to identify when the market's story about North Carolina diverges from the football conditions required to cover.
The spread is large, the favorite plays slowly, and the game script allows North Carolina to stay inside the number without chasing points.
The offense must play from behind, protect for long-yardage throws and generate explosives simply to reach the market expectation.
Whether the new personnel produces the role-specific answers described above—not merely whether the most recognizable names play.
Season-defining questionCan Bobby Petrino create functional offense quickly enough to support a defense that deserved better?