The 2026 outlook
Can this team separate in the country's most compressed conference race?
Oklahoma State opens No. 98 nationally and No. 16 of 16 in the Big 12. The 4M baseline rates the roster 6.7 points below an average FBS team on a neutral field and projects 3.5 regular-season wins.
Oklahoma State profiles as competitive but opponent-sensitive. It can win when the matchup protects its weak points, yet it does not have enough week-to-week talent separation to survive poor early-down offense, lost field position and a negative turnover margin at the same time.
Depth is the central concern. Transfers can raise the first unit quickly, but the two-deep has to hold up across twelve games. The first month should reveal whether the rebuild created real competition or simply moved uncertainty from one position group to another.
The schedule grades No. 50 nationally—enough resistance to expose weaknesses without defining the entire year. A small group of swing games should determine whether Oklahoma State beats its 3.5-win projection, placing extra value on special teams, fourth-down decisions and late-game quarterback play.
Personnel command center
Who is back, who arrived and who has to matter.
The roster is grouped by continuity because returning snaps and proven transfer production are more useful than raw headcount. “New / unverified” means the player did not match last season's roster or the incoming portal file—not that the player is necessarily a freshman.
Head coachEric Morris22–16 over the available CFBD career window
Staff continuityNew head coachReplaces Mike Gundy
Portal ledger55 in · 65 outImpact is weighted by rating, position and prior usage.
Position-group modelPremium roles separated.Fifty is FBS average. Quarterback includes the modeled starter probability, not merely the best name in the room.
4M player valueHighest-leverage rolesMaximum point value assumes the player is fully unavailable and is reduced by status probability.
PlayerPos.4M valueSizeContinuity
#17Drew MestemakerAustin, TXQB3.6 pts67% starter · 76% conf.6′3″ · 215 lbTransfer infrom North Texas
#9Grant JordanNew Orleans, LAQB1.5 pts33% starter · 76% conf.6′2″ · 217 lbTransfer infrom Massachusetts
#24Caleb HawkinsShawnee, OKRB0.9 pts85% role · 76% conf.6′0″ · 219 lbTransfer infrom North Texas
#10Wyatt YoungKaty, TXWR0.8 pts53% role · 64% conf.6′0″ · 199 lbTransfer infrom North Texas
#1Miles ColemanAustin, TXWR0.7 pts51% role · 64% conf.5′6″ · 158 lbTransfer infrom North Texas
#2Chris BarnesHouston, TXWR0.7 pts54% role · 64% conf.5′7″ · 169 lbTransfer infrom Wake Forest
#11Rodney Harris IICincinnati, OHWR0.7 pts48% role · 64% conf.6′1″ · 207 lbTransfer infrom Ohio
#0Justin BowickAtlanta, GAWR0.6 pts46% role · 64% conf.6′5″ · 209 lbTransfer infrom Illinois
#45Morgan McPhaulKinston, NCTE0.6 pts45% role · 64% conf.6′2″ · 265 lbTransfer infrom VMI
#5Israel PolkRichmond, CAWR0.6 pts50% role · 64% conf.6′2″ · 177 lbTransfer infrom Akron
#18Terrence LewisBrenham, TXWR0.6 pts42% role · 64% conf.5′11″ · 170 lbTransfer infrom North Texas
#77Ashton LepoGrand Haven, MIOL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′7″ · 320 lbTransfer infrom Michigan State
#67Braydon NelsonKilgore, TXOL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 327 lbTransfer infrom North Texas
#76Desmond MagiyaMcKinney, TXOL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 333 lbTransfer infrom North Texas
#79Jacob SextonEdmond, OKOL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′6″ · 328 lbTransfer infrom Oklahoma
#54Johnny Dickson IIICorpus Christi, TXOL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 317 lbTransfer infrom North Texas
#68Joseph HansonNiceville, FLOL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 302 lbTransfer infrom Coastal Carolina
#78Kai HolecSeattle, WAOL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′8″ · 327 lbTransfer infrom Indiana State
#70Shaun TorgesonVentura, CAOL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 302 lbTransfer infrom Portland State
#56Tyler MercerProsper, TXOL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 300 lbTransfer infrom Kansas
#31Billy Walton IIIDallas, TXDE0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 253 lbTransfer infrom SMU
#19DJ Jackson Jr.Atlanta, GADE0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 243 lbTransfer infrom Troy
#10James WilliamsKansas City, MODE0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 256 lbTransfer infrom Florida State
#11Keviyan HuddlestonTyler, TXDE0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 269 lbTransfer infrom North Texas
#94Braylon RigsbyWoodville, TXDT0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 283 lbTransfer infrom Texas Tech
#93Dominic MaconHappy Valley, ORDT0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 309 lbTransfer infrom Washington
#45Enai WhitePhiladelphia, PADT0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 300 lbTransfer infrom Penn State
#15Fatafehi Vailea IIOakland, CADT0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 307 lbTransfer infrom North Texas
#92Jerry LawsonBreckenridge, TXDT0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 312 lbTransfer infrom Louisville
#5Saadiq ClementsHenderson, KYDT0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 310 lbTransfer infrom North Texas
#25Ayo AdeyiMansfield, TXRB0.4 pts53% role · 64% conf.5′7″ · 194 lbTransfer infrom James Madison
#88Bodie BoydstunEnid, OKTE0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 239 lbTransfer infrom Southwestern Oklahoma State
#81Donovan GreenHouston, TXTE0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 238 lbTransfer infrom LSU
#39Jeremiah PiperDetroit, MICB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 175 lbTransfer infrom Youngstown State
#8Kollin LewisGladewater, TXCB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 188 lbTransfer infrom North Texas
#13Trudell BerryBaytown, TXCB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 196 lbTransfer infrom Vanderbilt
#6Christian BodnarTampa, FLS0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 188 lbTransfer infrom Liberty
#1Evan JacksonHouston, TXS0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 188 lbTransfer infrom North Texas
#25Markeith WilliamsOrlando, FLS0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 175 lbTransfer infrom Miami
#18Mose Phillips IIINashville, TNS0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 196 lbTransfer infrom Missouri
#7Quinton HammondsAllen, TXS0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 206 lbTransfer infrom North Texas
#27Vincent HolmesSan Jacinto, CAS0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 192 lbTransfer infrom Washington
#16Dallas Winner-JohnsonSt. Louis, MOLB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 225 lbTransfer infrom Tulane
#32Ethan WesloskiMcKinney, TXLB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 234 lbTransfer infrom North Texas
#2Isaiah ChisomPalmdale, CALB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 234 lbTransfer infrom UCLA
#33Jack PuckettBixby, OKLB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 234 lbTransfer infrom Central Oklahoma
#3Tate RomneyChandler, AZLB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 223 lbTransfer infrom Arizona State
#6Tre Page IIIAtlanta, GARB0.3 pts38% role · 40% conf.5′8″ · 184 lbTransfer infrom Tarleton State
#22William MasonDetroit, MIRB0.3 pts38% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 226 lbTransfer infrom Central Oklahoma
#37Lachie PozzobonMelbourne, VICP0.3 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 182 lbTransfer infrom Stephen F. Austin
#42Caden YatesArgyle, TXLS0.3 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 223 lbTransfer infrom North Texas
#48Nolan AkinsFlower Mound, TXLS0.3 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 198 lbTransfer infrom SMU
#16Sam KeltnerKeller, TXPK0.3 pts38% role · 52% conf.5′10″ · 185 lbTransfer infrom SMU
#63Caleb HacklemanTexarkana, TXOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′6″ · 298 lbReturning
#75Jakobe SandersStillwater, OKOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 327 lbReturning
#62Jamison MejiaBroken Arrow, OKOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 302 lbReturning
#66Louie CanepaNapa, CAOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 299 lbReturning
#71Miguel ChavezMuskogee, OKOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 314 lbReturning
#57Simona FuailetoloSt. George, UTOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′6″ · 315 lbReturning
#87DeSean BrownChoctaw, OKDE0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 266 lbReturning
#95Jaleel JohnsonOklahoma City, OKDE0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 270 lbReturning
#0Malik CharlesTempe, AZDE0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 284 lbReturning
#44Rashod BradleyLake City, FLDE0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 279 lbReturning
#99Iman OatesTulsa, OKDT0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 317 lbReturning
#88Landon DeanFrontenac, KSDT0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 290 lbReturning
#98Luke WebbDeer Park, TXDT0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 311 lbReturning
#15Kam PowellMcKinney, TXWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 202 lbReturning
#84Matrail LopezIdabel, OKWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 184 lbReturning
#23Oscar HammondCollinsville, OKTE0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 243 lbReturning
#22Kobi ForemanDallas, TXCB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 175 lbReturning
#9LaDainian FieldsOklahoma City, OKCB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 176 lbReturning
#35Ayden WebbDallas, TXS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 174 lbReturning
#12Cameron EppsSaint Louis, MOS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 207 lbReturning
#29Cooper LaiTulsa, OKS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 199 lbReturning
#14Jeremy Cook Jr.Birmingham, ALS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 205 lbReturning
#38Carl'veon YoungOklahoma City, OKLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 240 lbReturning
#50Gunnar WilsonMelissa, TXLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 217 lbReturning
#30Trip WhiteLittle Rock, ARLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 234 lbReturning
#74Eli HolbrookArlington, TXOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 290 lbNew / unverified
#58Isaiah BowmanConway, AROL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 296 lbNew / unverified
#73Jaqwon EvansShawnee, OKOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′5″ · 295 lbNew / unverified
#50Kole SeatonMesquite, TXOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′5″ · 299 lbNew / unverified
#72ORyan MosleyHouma, LAOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 315 lbNew / unverified
#96Joey QuinnChicago, ILDE0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′6″ · 255 lbNew / unverified
#91Landon BlandCarthage, MODE0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 231 lbNew / unverified
#97Nygel FarseeLittle Rock, ARDT0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 314 lbNew / unverified
#90Savion BarthelemyNew Orleans, LADT0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 286 lbNew / unverified
#87Blake HogshooterBixby, OKWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 190 lbNew / unverified
#19Dayvon StandardGoodyear, AZWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 185 lbNew / unverified
#14Jabarie ThorntonWaco, TXWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′11″ · 185 lbNew / unverified
#80Jani WeirFort Lauderdale, FLWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′8″ · 172 lbNew / unverified
#89Quincy SheltonHugo, OKWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′11″ · 169 lbNew / unverified
#83Ty WattsEdmond, OKWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′10″ · 173 lbNew / unverified
#44Carson KolbScottsdale, AZTE0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 235 lbNew / unverified
#82Luke LoganCumming, GATE0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 243 lbNew / unverified
#26Maliek BracyArgyle, TXCB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 171 lbNew / unverified
#28Marrel Davis IIIHouston, TXCB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 196 lbNew / unverified
#4Mo HornTulsa, OKCB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′11″ · 183 lbNew / unverified
#36Bobby Deal Jr.El Paso, TXS0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 190 lbNew / unverified
#23Braeden PresleyBixby, OKS0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 190 lbNew / unverified
#47Harrison DempseyGainesville, TXS0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′11″ · 205 lbNew / unverified
#46Hunter TruslerDalhart, TXS0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 201 lbNew / unverified
#52Beau WendelMidlothian, TXLB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′11″ · 197 lbNew / unverified
#40Cooper MailandDallas, TXLB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 232 lbNew / unverified
#20Taurean DavisQuitman, MSLB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 231 lbNew / unverified
#8Broderick VehrsGilbert, AZQB0.2 pts4% starter · 28% conf.5′11″ · 205 lbNew / unverified
#12Luke TepasBarrington, ILQB0.2 pts4% starter · 28% conf.6′3″ · 207 lbNew / unverified
#26Dennis Moody IIIStaten Island, NYRB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′10″ · 178 lbNew / unverified
#36Javen HallCleveland, TNRB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 214 lbNew / unverified
#20KD JonesJenks, OKRB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′11″ · 186 lbNew / unverified
#41Gabe PendyalaSunnyvale, TXPK0.1 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′10″ · 166 lbNew / unverified
#49Joseph KimLawton, OKPK0.1 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′9″ · 196 lbNew / unverified
#85Nate OstAkron, OHP0.1 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 198 lbNew / unverified
2026 schedule
The path that shapes the projection.
The model prices every scheduled game individually. Home field, neutral sites, completed results and opponent rating feed the expected-win total shown above.
WeekOpponentSiteDate / result
1TulsaNon-conference · Chapman Stadium · 4M 25–25 · 49% win
AwaySep 53:45 PM EDT · model ↗2
OregonNon-conference · Boone Pickens Stadium · 4M 36–16 · 13% win
HomeSep 1212:00 PM EDT · model ↗3
Murray StateNon-conference · Boone Pickens Stadium · 4M 15–37 · 89% win
HomeSep 197:00 PM EDT · model ↗4West VirginiaConference · Milan Puskar Stadium · 4M 22–27 · 39% win
AwaySep 2612:00 AM EDT · model ↗6
UCFConference · Boone Pickens Stadium · 4M 26–25 · 48% win
HomeOct 1012:00 AM EDT · model ↗7
HoustonConference · TDECU Stadium · 4M 20–32 · 26% win
AwayOct 1712:00 AM EDT · model ↗8
ColoradoConference · Boone Pickens Stadium · 4M 26–25 · 47% win
HomeOct 2412:00 AM EDT · model ↗9
Iowa StateConference · Jack Trice Stadium · 4M 21–31 · 29% win
AwayOct 3112:00 AM EDT · model ↗10
Kansas StateConference · Bill Snyder Family Stadium · 4M 19–33 · 22% win
AwayNov 712:00 AM EST · model ↗11
Texas TechConference · Boone Pickens Stadium · 4M 33–15 · 16% win
HomeNov 1412:00 AM EST · model ↗12
Arizona StateConference · Mountain America Stadium · 4M 19–31 · 24% win
AwayNov 2112:00 AM EST · model ↗13
KansasConference · Boone Pickens Stadium · 4M 30–24 · 37% win
HomeNov 2812:00 AM EST · model ↗
Range of outcomes
The projection is the middle—not the ceiling.
Floor case1 wins
Instability at premium positions turns swing games into losses.
4M midpoint4 wins
The roster performs close to its current power and schedule baseline.
Ceiling case6 wins
Quarterback play and line continuity outperform the preseason prior.
The betting lens
Price and matchup decide the play.
No team is an automatic bet or fade. The goal is to identify when the market's story about Oklahoma State diverges from the football conditions required to cover.
The spread is large, the favorite plays slowly, and the game script allows Oklahoma State to stay inside the number without chasing points.
The offense must play from behind, protect for long-yardage throws and generate explosives simply to reach the market expectation.
Quarterback efficiency, offensive-line cohesion and whether the defense can get off the field without blitzing itself out of structure.
Season-defining questionCan this team separate in the country's most compressed conference race?