The 2026 outlook
How quickly will this roster establish itself inside the rebuilt Pac-12 hierarchy?
Fresno State opens No. 82 nationally and No. 5 of 8 in the Pac-12. The 4M baseline rates the roster 3.6 points below an average FBS team on a neutral field and projects 5.4 regular-season wins.
Fresno State profiles as competitive but opponent-sensitive. It can win when the matchup protects its weak points, yet it does not have enough week-to-week talent separation to survive poor early-down offense, lost field position and a negative turnover margin at the same time.
Depth is the central concern. Transfers can raise the first unit quickly, but the two-deep has to hold up across twelve games. The first month should reveal whether the rebuild created real competition or simply moved uncertainty from one position group to another.
The schedule grades No. 84 nationally—enough resistance to expose weaknesses without defining the entire year. A small group of swing games should determine whether Fresno State beats its 5.4-win projection, placing extra value on special teams, fourth-down decisions and late-game quarterback play.
Personnel command center
Who is back, who arrived and who has to matter.
The roster is grouped by continuity because returning snaps and proven transfer production are more useful than raw headcount. “New / unverified” means the player did not match last season's roster or the incoming portal file—not that the player is necessarily a freshman.
Head coachMatt Entz9–4 over the available CFBD career window
Staff continuityReturning head coachContinuity is treated as context, not an automatic upgrade.
Portal ledger13 in · 10 outImpact is weighted by rating, position and prior usage.
Position-group modelPremium roles separated.Fifty is FBS average. Quarterback includes the modeled starter probability, not merely the best name in the room.
4M player valueHighest-leverage rolesMaximum point value assumes the player is fully unavailable and is reduced by status probability.
PlayerPos.4M valueSizeContinuity
#3Khristian MartinHighland Springs, VAQB1.8 pts34% starter · 64% conf.6′4″ · 230 lbTransfer infrom Maryland
#27Tariq ThomasSpringfield, MARB0.6 pts64% role · 64% conf.5′11″ · 190 lbTransfer infrom Bucknell
#69Oscar WeigelCarmel, CAOL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 290 lbTransfer infrom San Diego
#87Jake ApplegetLincoln, NETE0.5 pts43% role · 64% conf.6′4″ · 245 lbTransfer infrom Northern Illinois
#11Dylan HampstenSanta Clarita, CADL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 250 lbTransfer infrom Sacramento State
#95Maverick NoonanOmaha, NEDL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 250 lbTransfer infrom Nebraska
#94Micah MosleySan Jose, CADL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 230 lbTransfer infrom Sacramento State
#82Darrian AndersonWaipahu, HIWR0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.5′9″ · 190 lbTransfer infrom Oregon
#24Croix StewartVallejo, CADB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 208 lbTransfer infrom UCLA
#19Preston OkaforOmaha, NEDB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 185 lbTransfer infrom Nebraska
#33Taylor PowellBelleville, ILDB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 205 lbTransfer infrom Northern Illinois
#38Manaki WatanabeNovi, MIPK0.3 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 175 lbTransfer infrom Ashland University
#7Jayden MandalClovis, CAQB1.3 pts29% starter · 40% conf.6′0″ · 205 lbReturning
#16Jonathan CraftUnion City, CAQB1.3 pts29% starter · 40% conf.6′1″ · 175 lbReturning
#5Josiah FreemanSoledad, CAWR0.9 pts61% role · 64% conf.6′4″ · 200 lbReturning
#1Jahlil McClainBellflower, CAWR0.7 pts52% role · 64% conf.5′11″ · 185 lbReturning
#0Ezekiel AvitPotomac, MDWR0.7 pts54% role · 64% conf.6′2″ · 200 lbReturning
#11Jayon FarrarLong Branch, NJWR0.7 pts50% role · 64% conf.5′11″ · 185 lbReturning
#2Rayshon LukeSouth Main, CARB0.7 pts72% role · 76% conf.5′10″ · 180 lbReturning
#19Harold DuvallFresno, CAWR0.6 pts47% role · 64% conf.6′1″ · 195 lbReturning
#6Bryson DonelsonVisalia, CARB0.6 pts75% role · 76% conf.5′11″ · 205 lbReturning
#56Ben BakerSan Clemente, CAOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 280 lbReturning
#76Brayden WaltonClovis, CAOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′8″ · 325 lbReturning
#51Braylan HendersonTulare, CAOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 290 lbReturning
#72Edward FonuaOrange, CAOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 315 lbReturning
#68Ekene EbizieMurrieta, CAOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′7″ · 285 lbReturning
#79Ethan DasmannEl Dorado Hills, CAOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 290 lbReturning
#66Gino QuinonesEwa Beach, HIOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 295 lbReturning
#65Jonah LeaupepeteleApple Valley, CAOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 325 lbReturning
#75Kyson Van VugtSioux Center, IAOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′7″ · 290 lbReturning
#63Malcolm Polu Jr.FagatogoOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 325 lbReturning
#55Marquise Thorpe-TaylorTacoma, WAOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 330 lbReturning
#73Marsel AkinsTulare, CAOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 285 lbReturning
#71Rolan FullwoodLong Beach, CAOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′6″ · 320 lbReturning
#91Auckland AsiataYuba City, CADL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 285 lbReturning
#93Bryson HarringtonClovis, CADL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 280 lbReturning
#0Deijon LaffitteOntario, CADL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 305 lbReturning
#6Jahzon JacksEast Palo Alto, CADL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 260 lbReturning
#56Jairus SateleCarson, CADL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 295 lbReturning
#99Logan GoodspeedBakersfield, CADL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 290 lbReturning
#8Martin OwusuPrior Lake, MNDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 310 lbReturning
#9Merhauti XeperaMaricopa, AZDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 278 lbReturning
#89Mordecai HinesPalmdale, CADL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 290 lbReturning
#96Noah YehPittsburgh, PADL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 250 lbReturning
#54Sione NoaSacramento, CADL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 241 lbReturning
#98Steven Scott IIIMilwaukee, WIDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 285 lbReturning
#89Brock LiumHighland, CATE0.5 pts47% role · 64% conf.6′5″ · 245 lbReturning
#18Isaiah DillonOxnard, CAWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 185 lbReturning
#80Jaylen GarrisonHenderson, NVWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 190 lbReturning
#25Keynan CottonLa Vista, NEWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′9″ · 195 lbReturning
#29Malakai SumterHometown not listedWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 185 lbReturning
#86Gavin CorreiaRocklin, CATE0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 235 lbReturning
#30Jace NixonBakersfield, CATE0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 245 lbReturning
#32Ryan LewisEscalon, CATE0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 255 lbReturning
#35Sebastien BoydellNewport Beach, CATE0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 225 lbReturning
#2Andre CobbNaperville, ILDB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 185 lbReturning
#13Cam ColeArlington, TXDB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 180 lbReturning
#34DaJhon HallHesperia, CADB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 170 lbReturning
#4Ethan TierneyDekalb, ILDB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 187 lbReturning
#27Gerayas GrimesQueen Creek, AZDB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 190 lbReturning
#3Jaden CarrilloClovis, CADB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 185 lbReturning
#28Jomarion BriggsStockton, CADB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 175 lbReturning
#17Jonavon DarringtonVisalia, CADB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 165 lbReturning
#31Kiontre HarrisLemoore, CADB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 165 lbReturning
#7Loyall MouzonRochester, NYDB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 182 lbReturning
#20RJ ReganOrange, CADB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 195 lbReturning
#37Ryan WilsonRancho Palos Verdes, CADB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 195 lbReturning
#23Sammie HunterRock Hill, SCDB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 185 lbReturning
#5Simeon HarrisVallejo, CADB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 190 lbReturning
#32Tyger CanalesLong Beach, CADB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 190 lbReturning
#10Jordan Malau'uluLong Beach, CAWR0.5 pts47% role · 64% conf.5′10″ · 180 lbReturning
#31Brandon RamirezHanford, CARB0.5 pts56% role · 76% conf.6′0″ · 235 lbReturning
#24Julius GillickSeattle, WARB0.4 pts48% role · 64% conf.5′11″ · 215 lbReturning
#25Justin JohnsonLos Angeles, CALB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 225 lbReturning
#10K'vion ThunderbirdChicago, ILLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 235 lbReturning
#18Logan StudtClovis, CALB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 220 lbReturning
#42Lucas BlumlingScottsdale, AZLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 225 lbReturning
#43Niko BaumgartnerConcord, CALB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 200 lbReturning
#36Tommy NixHanford, CALB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 220 lbReturning
#35Tytus KhajaviFresno, CALB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 240 lbReturning
#45Connor TrippSan Jose, CAPK0.3 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 175 lbReturning
#40Ryan KobzeffFresno, CAPK0.3 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 175 lbReturning
#49Clay LawrencePerthP0.3 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 180 lbReturning
#41Nick VerdugoLoomis, CAP0.3 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 180 lbReturning
#53Jack BaldiFoothill Ranch, CALS0.3 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 220 lbReturning
#59Alex RiveraLovington, NMOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 295 lbNew / unverified
#67Bode StoddardCarmel, CAOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′7″ · 300 lbNew / unverified
#58Efren SiuloaLaie, HIOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 335 lbNew / unverified
#50Pat BarnettKey West, FLOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′6″ · 315 lbNew / unverified
#55Brendan HuddlestonSt. Louis, MODL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 245 lbNew / unverified
#97Jake Plummer-FirstFlorissant, MODL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′6″ · 220 lbNew / unverified
#92Luke AverellLadera Ranch, CADL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 260 lbNew / unverified
#85Solomon BakerOmaha, NEDL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 285 lbNew / unverified
#26Maxwell YoungLos Angeles, CAWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 180 lbNew / unverified
#39Tyler BeckerSan Diego, CAWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 185 lbNew / unverified
#81Xavier OwensLos Angeles, CAWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 170 lbNew / unverified
#42Brayden FordRancho Murieta, CATE0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 235 lbNew / unverified
#85Bryce McdanielHughson, CATE0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 215 lbNew / unverified
#88Dallas Gaius-AnyaegbuOmaha, NETE0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′5″ · 235 lbNew / unverified
#44Robert LuceroWest Covina, CATE0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 180 lbNew / unverified
#37Sylas AustinAtwater, CATE0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 230 lbNew / unverified
#36Zane GerboModesto, CATE0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 235 lbNew / unverified
#39Chase PerinoModesto, CADB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 180 lbNew / unverified
#29Franklin LockardTulare, CADB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 165 lbNew / unverified
#38Isaiah LuceroWest Covina, CADB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 185 lbNew / unverified
#26Truly Bell IIIAntioch, CADB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 188 lbNew / unverified
#44Bo AusmusRedondo Beach, CALB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 207 lbNew / unverified
#40Jaydon SutkoOmaha, NELB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 227 lbNew / unverified
#45Zephaniah SesayHanford, CALB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 230 lbNew / unverified
#17Deagan RoseClovis, CAQB0.2 pts4% starter · 28% conf.6′2″ · 220 lbNew / unverified
#13Jacob ChambersFontana, CAQB0.2 pts4% starter · 28% conf.6′1″ · 185 lbNew / unverified
#41Andrew ChavezFresno, CARB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 195 lbNew / unverified
#34Jalen HarrisBerkeley, CARB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 180 lbNew / unverified
#33Maddox MerrillClovis, CARB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′7″ · 190 lbNew / unverified
#52Ethan RossettiClovis, CALS0.1 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 205 lbNew / unverified
2026 schedule
The path that shapes the projection.
The model prices every scheduled game individually. Home field, neutral sites, completed results and opponent rating feed the expected-win total shown above.
WeekOpponentSiteDate / result
1USCNon-conference · Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum · 4M 17–35 · 16% win
AwaySep 49:00 PM EDT · model ↗2
Sacramento StateNon-conference · Valley Children's Stadium · 4M 20–31 · 72% win
HomeSep 1210:30 PM EDT · model ↗3
San José StateNon-conference · CEFCU Stadium · 4M 27–24 · 56% win
AwaySep 1911:00 PM EDT · model ↗4
RiceNon-conference · Valley Children's Stadium · 4M 19–30 · 72% win
HomeSep 2610:00 PM EDT · model ↗5
Washington StateConference · Gesa Field · 4M 22–29 · 35% win
AwayOct 39:30 PM EDT · model ↗6
Boise StateConference · Valley Children's Stadium · 4M 26–23 · 43% win
HomeOct 1010:30 PM EDT · model ↗7
San Diego StateConference · Snapdragon Stadium · 4M 21–28 · 34% win
AwayOct 1710:30 PM EDT · model ↗9
Oregon StateConference · Valley Children's Stadium · 4M 22–28 · 63% win
HomeOct 3112:00 AM EDT · model ↗10
Utah StateConference · Maverik Stadium · 4M 25–26 · 46% win
AwayNov 79:30 PM EST · model ↗11
Texas StateConference · Bobcat Stadium (TX) · 4M 23–30 · 34% win
AwayNov 144:00 PM EST · model ↗12
Colorado StateConference · Valley Children's Stadium · 4M 22–29 · 66% win
HomeNov 217:30 PM EST · model ↗
Range of outcomes
The projection is the middle—not the ceiling.
Floor case3 wins
Instability at premium positions turns swing games into losses.
4M midpoint5 wins
The roster performs close to its current power and schedule baseline.
Ceiling case8 wins
Quarterback play and line continuity outperform the preseason prior.
The betting lens
Price and matchup decide the play.
No team is an automatic bet or fade. The goal is to identify when the market's story about Fresno State diverges from the football conditions required to cover.
The spread is large, the favorite plays slowly, and the game script allows Fresno State to stay inside the number without chasing points.
The offense must play from behind, protect for long-yardage throws and generate explosives simply to reach the market expectation.
Quarterback efficiency, offensive-line cohesion and whether the defense can get off the field without blitzing itself out of structure.
Season-defining questionHow quickly will this roster establish itself inside the rebuilt Pac-12 hierarchy?