The 2026 outlook
Will experienced line play and close-game execution create a MAC breakthrough?
Ohio opens No. 88 nationally and No. 4 of 13 in the MAC. The 4M baseline rates the roster 4.5 points below an average FBS team on a neutral field and projects 6.3 regular-season wins.
Ohio profiles as competitive but opponent-sensitive. It can win when the matchup protects its weak points, yet it does not have enough week-to-week talent separation to survive poor early-down offense, lost field position and a negative turnover margin at the same time.
Depth is the central concern. Transfers can raise the first unit quickly, but the two-deep has to hold up across twelve games. The first month should reveal whether the rebuild created real competition or simply moved uncertainty from one position group to another.
The schedule projects among the country's most manageable at No. 133. That creates upside in the win column, but also a pricing trap: the record can improve faster than the underlying team quality, inviting bettors to pay for results that came against limited resistance.
Personnel command center
Who is back, who arrived and who has to matter.
The roster is grouped by continuity because returning snaps and proven transfer production are more useful than raw headcount. “New / unverified” means the player did not match last season's roster or the incoming portal file—not that the player is necessarily a freshman.
Head coachJohn Hauser1–0 over the available CFBD career window
Staff continuityReturning head coachContinuity is treated as context, not an automatic upgrade.
Portal ledger19 in · 16 outImpact is weighted by rating, position and prior usage.
Position-group modelPremium roles separated.Fifty is FBS average. Quarterback includes the modeled starter probability, not merely the best name in the room.
4M player valueHighest-leverage rolesMaximum point value assumes the player is fully unavailable and is reduced by status probability.
PlayerPos.4M valueSizeContinuity
#9Matt VezzaElmhurst, ILQB5.0 pts94% starter · 64% conf.6′0″ · 198 lbTransfer infrom New Hampshire
#71Cassius HulbertEdon, OHOL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 310 lbTransfer infrom Tiffin University
#55CJ Dawson IIGreen, OHOL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 327 lbTransfer infrom Gardner-Webb
#53Lance Blakely Jr.Columbus, OHOL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 270 lbTransfer infrom Wayne State
#72Sandro MalicevicSaratoga, CAOL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 332 lbTransfer infrom Eastern Illinois
#77Trumain LawsonClifton, NJOL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 278 lbTransfer infrom LIU Post
#51Isaiah StreetBrownsburg, INDL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 236 lbTransfer infrom Western Michigan
#9Tyler GillisonPickerington, OHDL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 252 lbTransfer infrom Michigan State
#4Victor RosaBristol, CTRB0.4 pts47% role · 64% conf.5′11″ · 208 lbTransfer infrom UConn
#10Ian Ver SteegSevern, MDWR0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 184 lbTransfer infrom Wake Forest
#2Preston BowmanPickerington, OHWR0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 207 lbTransfer infrom Kentucky
#33Jake FurtneySt. Charles, ILTE0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 242 lbTransfer infrom Illinois
#85Riley PalmeterEdinburgh, INTE0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 230 lbTransfer infrom Marian
#8Barry DillonVicksburg, MSDB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 198 lbTransfer infrom Incarnate Word
#4Darren James-HamiltonCharlotte, NCDB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 187 lbTransfer infrom Elon
#7Eli ThompsonRome, GADB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 183 lbTransfer infrom Holy Cross
#5KJ SejourHollywood, FLDB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.5′9″ · 160 lbTransfer infrom Chattanooga
#56Cody RaymondShelby, MILB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 231 lbTransfer infrom Wisconsin
#47Will HryszkoStrongsville, OHPK0.3 pts38% role · 52% conf.5′10″ · 187 lbTransfer infrom Kent State
#12Eian PughNaperville, ILWR0.7 pts47% role · 64% conf.6′3″ · 182 lbReturning
#3Dom DorwartLeonardtown, MDWR0.6 pts51% role · 64% conf.6′2″ · 208 lbReturning
#56Ben MaldonadoMiami, FLOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 291 lbReturning
#76Bryce ParsonSt. Louis, MOOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 296 lbReturning
#75Jarian ShelbyLuling, LAOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 290 lbReturning
#65Josh WaiteRoaring Spring, PAOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 301 lbReturning
#70Joshua JohnsonWesterville, OHOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 311 lbReturning
#63Seth AnsteadHometown not listedOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 300 lbReturning
#74Tigana CisseOakland, CAOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 305 lbReturning
#6Duncan BruneCologneRB0.6 pts66% role · 76% conf.5′11″ · 218 lbReturning
#14Ike AckermanOmaha, NEDE0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 249 lbReturning
#23Joseph MarshSimi Valley, CADE0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 232 lbReturning
#50Owen DiFrancoGlen Ellyn, ILDE0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 258 lbReturning
#97Austin MitchellAvon, OHDT0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 274 lbReturning
#94Brandon WeaverColumbus, OHDT0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 269 lbReturning
#98Derek ReagansSan Francisco, CADT0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 279 lbReturning
#57Nathan HaleHometown not listedDT0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 259 lbReturning
#92RJ KeuchlerHometown not listedDT0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 255 lbReturning
#11Evan HerrmannSussex, WIDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 245 lbReturning
#0Nehemiah DukesDouglasville, GADL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 288 lbReturning
#99Ty NeubertColumbus, OHDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 278 lbReturning
#37Blake GuffeyGlouster, OHWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 221 lbReturning
#0Delaney CrawfordCorona, CAWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 202 lbReturning
#31Khamani DebrowHometown not listedWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 206 lbReturning
#18Miles CremascoliWinnetka, ILWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 213 lbReturning
#13Rashad PerryFresno, CAWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 160 lbReturning
#15Riley NeerBellefontaine, OHWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 190 lbReturning
#44Aiden LoweryHometown not listedTE0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 238 lbReturning
#84AJ MillerPickerington, OHTE0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 239 lbReturning
#87Tim BoalsSandusky, OHTE0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 235 lbReturning
#19Bobby MillerOrlando, FLCB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 177 lbReturning
#20Kendall BannisterWoodbridge, VACB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 187 lbReturning
#21Ronald Jackson Jr.Detroit, MICB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 203 lbReturning
#6Tony MathisHometown not listedCB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 176 lbReturning
#26Tyson LongPickerington, OHCB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 184 lbReturning
#49Xavier WilliamsAkron, OHCB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 156 lbReturning
#18Andrew VeraSaint Clairsville, OHS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 199 lbReturning
#17Caleb ChamberlinPalm Beach Gardens, FLS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 199 lbReturning
#13DJ MortonHometown not listedS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 191 lbReturning
#2DJ WalkerAliquippa, PAS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 198 lbReturning
#3JT HaskinsHometown not listedS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 182 lbReturning
#45Brady WhartonAthens, OHLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 193 lbReturning
#30Charlie ChristopherUniontown, OHLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 227 lbReturning
#27Jack FriesCincinnati, OHLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 222 lbReturning
#12Jermaine MinnisHyattsville, MDLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 204 lbReturning
#25Michael MolnarMason, OHLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 227 lbReturning
#24Irving BrownTeachey, NCRB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 220 lbReturning
#22Mike Taylor Jr.Pickerington, OHRB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 204 lbReturning
#90Kolten BartelsRichmond, MIP0.3 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 195 lbReturning
#42Magnus HainesMassillon, OHP0.3 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 193 lbReturning
#46Nick HemerPittsburgh, PALS0.3 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 205 lbReturning
#43Brack PeacockGranbury, TXPK0.3 pts44% role · 52% conf.5′7″ · 165 lbReturning
#8Nick PoulosHometown not listedQB0.2 pts4% starter · 64% conf.6′6″ · 243 lbReturning
#5Hype GrandLa Puente, CAQB0.2 pts4% starter · 40% conf.6′0″ · 185 lbReturning
#16Matthew PapasHometown not listedQB0.2 pts4% starter · 40% conf.5′11″ · 192 lbReturning
#60Colton CrosleyMayfield, OHOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 290 lbNew / unverified
#78Danny FortsonCincinnati, OHOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′5″ · 265 lbNew / unverified
#51Job MavrickWestfield, INOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 291 lbNew / unverified
#66Mike MontgomeryWest Branch, IAOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′5″ · 250 lbNew / unverified
#54Will OdenthalNelsonville, OHOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′5″ · 300 lbNew / unverified
#34Troy StiggersLithonia, GADE0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 240 lbNew / unverified
#96Tyler StearmanLoveland, OHDE0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 210 lbNew / unverified
#44Austin AdkinsStrongsville, OHDT0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 270 lbNew / unverified
#10Drayden PaveyCincinnati, OHDT0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 276 lbNew / unverified
#17Blake ParkerSandusky, OHWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 180 lbNew / unverified
#80Kaden PageWapakoneta, OHWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 195 lbNew / unverified
#14Marcus CainBatavia, OHWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 204 lbNew / unverified
#81MC Walker IIColumbus, OHWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′11″ · 180 lbNew / unverified
#11Zach HacklemanCleveland, OHWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 185 lbNew / unverified
#86Andrew MetzgerAurora, COTE0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 246 lbNew / unverified
#88Calvin MoodyNoblesville, INTE0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′5″ · 230 lbNew / unverified
#24Cam CopeCincinnati, OHCB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′11″ · 188 lbNew / unverified
#29Jay Brewer IIIAkron, OHCB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 190 lbNew / unverified
#28Kindall BrownCleveland, OHCB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′10″ · 174 lbNew / unverified
#22Brandon JenkinsChicago, ILS0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′10″ · 189 lbNew / unverified
#36Malachi TaylorColumbus, OHS0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 190 lbNew / unverified
#16Ryan MillerColumbus, OHS0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 230 lbNew / unverified
#32Alex BrownMason, OHLB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 220 lbNew / unverified
#41Colin WooldridgeCincinnati, OHLB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 200 lbNew / unverified
#35Mac CapenNewfane, NYLB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 207 lbNew / unverified
#52Nolan OgburnKettering, OHLB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 235 lbNew / unverified
#15William MarzolfOrlando, FLLB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 220 lbNew / unverified
#7Levi DavisLewis Center, OHQB0.2 pts4% starter · 28% conf.6′0″ · 192 lbNew / unverified
#23James KellyTrussville, ALRB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 205 lbNew / unverified
#93Owen SchaadtWest Chester, PAPK0.1 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 190 lbNew / unverified
#83Ethan NajmMurfreesboro, TNLS0.1 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′10″ · 195 lbNew / unverified
2026 schedule
The path that shapes the projection.
The model prices every scheduled game individually. Home field, neutral sites, completed results and opponent rating feed the expected-win total shown above.
WeekOpponentSiteDate / result
1NebraskaNon-conference · Memorial Stadium (Lincoln, NE) · 4M 22–31 · 31% win
AwaySep 512:00 PM EDT · model ↗2
Jacksonville StateNon-conference · Peden Stadium · 4M 25–28 · 56% win
HomeSep 126:00 PM EDT · model ↗3
South AlabamaNon-conference · Hancock Whitney Stadium · 4M 28–26 · 53% win
AwaySep 197:00 PM EDT · model ↗4
StonehillNon-conference · Peden Stadium · 4M 14–39 · 92% win
HomeSep 263:30 PM EDT · model ↗5Kent StateConference · Dix Stadium · 4M 30–24 · 62% win
AwayOct 312:00 AM EDT · model ↗6
Central MichiganConference · Peden Stadium · 4M 24–28 · 59% win
HomeOct 1012:00 AM EDT · model ↗7
Sacramento StateConference · Hornet Stadium · 4M 29–24 · 62% win
AwayOct 1712:00 AM EDT · model ↗8
Eastern MichiganConference · Peden Stadium · 4M 24–30 · 64% win
HomeOct 2412:00 AM EDT · model ↗10
AkronConference · InfoCision Stadium · 4M 30–22 · 66% win
AwayNov 37:00 PM EST · model ↗11
Miami (OH)Conference · Yager Stadium · 4M 25–27 · 45% win
AwayNov 107:00 PM EST · model ↗12
Ball StateConference · Peden Stadium · 4M 19–32 · 77% win
HomeNov 177:00 PM EST · model ↗13
ToledoConference · Peden Stadium · 4M 26–25 · 47% win
HomeNov 2712:00 PM EST · model ↗
Range of outcomes
The projection is the middle—not the ceiling.
Floor case4 wins
Instability at premium positions turns swing games into losses.
4M midpoint6 wins
The roster performs close to its current power and schedule baseline.
Ceiling case8 wins
Quarterback play and line continuity outperform the preseason prior.
The betting lens
Price and matchup decide the play.
No team is an automatic bet or fade. The goal is to identify when the market's story about Ohio diverges from the football conditions required to cover.
The spread is large, the favorite plays slowly, and the game script allows Ohio to stay inside the number without chasing points.
The offense must play from behind, protect for long-yardage throws and generate explosives simply to reach the market expectation.
Quarterback efficiency, offensive-line cohesion and whether the defense can get off the field without blitzing itself out of structure.
Season-defining questionWill experienced line play and close-game execution create a MAC breakthrough?