Air Force 2026 Preview — No. 88 in the 4M 138

The 2026 outlook

Can this team create enough explosive offense to separate in the reconfigured Mountain West?

Air Force opens No. 99 nationally and No. 4 of 10 in the Mountain West. The 4M baseline rates the roster 7.5 points below an average FBS team on a neutral field and projects 5.6 regular-season wins.

Air Force profiles as competitive but opponent-sensitive. It can win when the matchup protects its weak points, yet it does not have enough week-to-week talent separation to survive poor early-down offense, lost field position and a negative turnover margin at the same time.

Depth is the central concern. Transfers can raise the first unit quickly, but the two-deep has to hold up across twelve games. The first month should reveal whether the rebuild created real competition or simply moved uncertainty from one position group to another.

The schedule projects among the country's most manageable at No. 125. That creates upside in the win column, but also a pricing trap: the record can improve faster than the underlying team quality, inviting bettors to pay for results that came against limited resistance.

Personnel command center

Who is back, who arrived and who has to matter.

The roster is grouped by continuity because returning snaps and proven transfer production are more useful than raw headcount. “New / unverified” means the player did not match last season's roster or the incoming portal file—not that the player is necessarily a freshman.

Head coachTroy Calhoun38–25 over the available CFBD career window

Staff continuityReturning head coachContinuity is treated as context, not an automatic upgrade.

Portal ledger0 in · 4 outImpact is weighted by rating, position and prior usage.

Position-group modelPremium roles separated.Fifty is FBS average. Quarterback includes the modeled starter probability, not merely the best name in the room.

Quarterback64

Offensive line51

Receivers12

Defensive front52

Secondary50

OutJordan ShulerLB · to Undecided · 2★

OutTrae WilliamsCB · to Furman

OutJeremiah ShelbyEDGE · to Undecided

OutDominic DiazLS · to Undecided

4M player valueHighest-leverage rolesMaximum point value assumes the player is fully unavailable and is reduced by status probability.

QBLiam Szarka4.8 pts87% starter · usage + PPA + WEPA + roster continuity + QB starter probability

WRJonah Dawson0.7 pts51% expected role · usage + PPA + roster continuity

RBOwen Allen0.6 pts72% expected role · usage + PPA + WEPA + roster continuity

OTLuke Vonderhaar0.6 pts44% expected role · roster continuity

OLAlec Falk0.6 pts44% expected role · roster continuity

OLBrandon Nazworth0.6 pts44% expected role · roster continuity

Find a player

PlayerPos.4M valueSizeContinuity

#9Liam SzarkaAurora, COQB4.8 pts87% starter · 76% conf.5′11″ · 190 lbReturning

#8Jonah DawsonRancho Cucamonga, CAWR0.7 pts51% role · 64% conf.5′9″ · 170 lbReturning

#2Owen AllenSouthlake, TXRB0.6 pts72% role · 76% conf.5′11″ · 215 lbReturning

#55Luke VonderhaarBettendorf, IAOT0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 285 lbReturning

#75Alec FalkMonument, COOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 315 lbReturning

#73Brandon NazworthFolsom, CAOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 290 lbReturning

#57Brody SmithJefferson City, MOOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 290 lbReturning

#64Caden RomoWimberley, TXOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 245 lbReturning

#53Griffin StalfortChandler, AZOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 290 lbReturning

#50Henry RickelsBellevue, NEOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 300 lbReturning

#59Johnique ThomasLittig, TXOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 295 lbReturning

#72Jon AshfordEdmond, OKOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 320 lbReturning

#62Jonny BrambilaMurray, UTOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 300 lbReturning

#54Justus PeralesEl Paso, TXOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 280 lbReturning

#71Marcus RoserAshburn, VAOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 280 lbReturning

#52Nathan ElwoodMarysville, WAOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 290 lbReturning

#77Peyton KnoebelArvada, COOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 300 lbReturning

#51Rudy VarelaGilbert, AZOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 295 lbReturning

#58TJ TarascioRiverside, CAOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 310 lbReturning

#3Matt LongFolsom, CAWR0.6 pts47% role · 64% conf.5′10″ · 205 lbReturning

#48Antonio MenardLakeville, MNDE0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 230 lbReturning

#18DeSean DavisProsper, TXDE0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 225 lbReturning

#50Grady ForsytheConifer, CODE0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 235 lbReturning

#34Jalen DavisProsper, TXDE0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 220 lbReturning

#84Samuel Rhoades VTulsa, OKDE0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 240 lbReturning

#93Andrew TillettSumner, WADL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 290 lbReturning

#97Bennett WilliamsPrinceton, ILDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 285 lbReturning

#96Charlie GleasonStillwater, MNDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 235 lbReturning

#59Chaz BarnettHighlands Ranch, CODL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 260 lbReturning

#99Jayden OquendoOlathe, KSDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 285 lbReturning

#91Lukia Rawls Jr.Houston, TXDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 280 lbReturning

#56Trace Williams-MitchelDenver, CODL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 285 lbReturning

#10Adam HrynciwFremont, OHWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 180 lbReturning

#36Astin HangeKapolei, HIWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 175 lbReturning

#19Grant WayneMurrieta, CAWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 185 lbReturning

#22Keegan BassOklahoma City, OKWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′9″ · 180 lbReturning

#18Mason HayesNormandy Park, WAWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 210 lbReturning

#33Mason LoweLittleton, COWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 185 lbReturning

#0Owen ChambersDana Point, CAWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 195 lbReturning

#87Harry CaskeyOgallala, NETE0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 240 lbReturning

#85Mitchell BlakesleeThe Woodlands, TXTE0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 260 lbReturning

#80Simon KibbeeAurora, COTE0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′6″ · 250 lbReturning

#26Alexander PerezHenderson, NVDB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 200 lbReturning

#22Ehimen OyamendanLa Crescenta, CADB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 190 lbReturning

#19Houston HendrixBoerne, TXDB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 205 lbReturning

#16Jet WileySacramento, CADB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 185 lbReturning

#24Jordan Elie-StuartHometown not listedDB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 170 lbReturning

#20JT TomesckoBentonville, ARDB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 190 lbReturning

#2Korey JohnsonGlendale, AZDB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 195 lbReturning

#3Kyle ChenVancouver, WADB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 200 lbReturning

#36Max MustellMiami, FLDB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 175 lbReturning

#4Mikhail SeikenTakoma Park, MDDB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 190 lbReturning

#7Nick BeckwithLafayette, LADB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 205 lbReturning

#11RJ ReedusCypress, TXDB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 185 lbReturning

#5Roger Jones Jr.Huntingtown, MDDB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 184 lbReturning

#6Blake FletcherRacine, WILB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 230 lbReturning

#39Brodie MitchellPortland, TXLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 205 lbReturning

#33Brody BujnochHutto, TXLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 235 lbReturning

#42Brody WhitsonSeguin, TXLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 245 lbReturning

#8Dallas DaleyRenton, WALB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 215 lbReturning

#30Isaac HubertCanton, GALB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 225 lbReturning

#47Jake KeplerSpringfield, ILLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 230 lbReturning

#45Jaylin ReeseWoodbury, MNLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 235 lbReturning

#44Jonah BowmanProsper, TXLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 235 lbReturning

#0Luke FisherColumbus, MSLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 225 lbReturning

#51Vinnie CanosaAcworth, GALB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 230 lbReturning

#11Josh JohnsonNew Orleans, LAQB0.4 pts8% starter · 64% conf.6′2″ · 190 lbReturning

#44Rocco ContiOlmsted Falls, OHRB0.4 pts46% role · 64% conf.5′8″ · 190 lbReturning

#26Jalen Rashad TurnerColumbus, GARB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 185 lbReturning

#28Gage LaDueMaryville, TNFB0.3 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 215 lbReturning

#24Luke RauhEnid, OKFB0.3 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 210 lbReturning

#45Omari EliasWichita, KSFB0.3 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′9″ · 205 lbReturning

#43Travis WoodRancho Santa Margarita, CAFB0.3 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 225 lbReturning

#91Rip PerezHometown not listedP0.3 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 200 lbReturning

#98Rocco D'AngeloNaples, FLP0.3 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 180 lbReturning

#94Will DuncanKaty, TXP0.3 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 220 lbReturning

#42Jake HelmsAustin, TXLS0.3 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 210 lbReturning

#39Jacob MedinaChandler, AZPK0.3 pts44% role · 52% conf.5′10″ · 170 lbReturning

#4Kemper HodgesSanta Rosa Beach, FLQB0.2 pts4% starter · 64% conf.6′0″ · 245 lbReturning

#5Evan MeddersWaxhaw, NCQB0.2 pts4% starter · 40% conf.5′10″ · 210 lbReturning

#13Maguire MartinArgyle, TXQB0.2 pts4% starter · 40% conf.6′1″ · 190 lbReturning

#76Alex BoydMaryville, TNOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 280 lbNew / unverified

#67Cole AndersonJacksonville, FLOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 315 lbNew / unverified

#78Gary LassleyFrisco, TXOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 300 lbNew / unverified

#66Jake SulzbergerLemont, ILOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 275 lbNew / unverified

#53Michael RayMemphis, TNOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 300 lbNew / unverified

#53Ryan LippeHartville, OHDE0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 250 lbNew / unverified

#94Adam PughOmaha, NEDL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 260 lbNew / unverified

#98Christian KrietzerMacon, GADL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 240 lbNew / unverified

#92Connor VasekAustin, TXDL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 255 lbNew / unverified

#55Cullen DevineAustin, TXDL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 225 lbNew / unverified

#90Muhammad AlcineLawrenceville, GADL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 255 lbNew / unverified

#95Noah DanielsWinter Park, FLDL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 260 lbNew / unverified

#17Caleb CappuccioSan Antonio, TXWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′10″ · 175 lbNew / unverified

#25Harris VinsonBentonville, ARWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 205 lbNew / unverified

#83Isaac ThomasCrestview, FLWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 210 lbNew / unverified

#20Keegan SackHurricane, WVWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′10″ · 210 lbNew / unverified

#30Major QuinJackson, MSWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′10″ · 185 lbNew / unverified

#89Noah McNairSunnyside, WAWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 205 lbNew / unverified

#29Sylas Maiava-AlaimaloOahu, HIWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′9″ · 195 lbNew / unverified

#81Dominic HenningAurora, COTE0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 245 lbNew / unverified

#82Henry BarbischPittsburgh, PATE0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′5″ · 250 lbNew / unverified

#42Jack PetrissansFresno, CATE0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 230 lbNew / unverified

#23Cade PatersonEastvale, CADB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′11″ · 195 lbNew / unverified

#21Clayton HartHenderson, TXDB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 195 lbNew / unverified

#27Ethan StannardAtlanta, GADB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′11″ · 195 lbNew / unverified

#12Jax GatesLincoln, NEDB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′11″ · 190 lbNew / unverified

#31Jayden MalbrancheFort Myers, FLDB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′11″ · 180 lbNew / unverified

#10Jerome DrainFulshear, TXDB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 190 lbNew / unverified

#13Joseph KramlichKulm, NDDB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′10″ · 175 lbNew / unverified

#58Nkongolo Wa-KalonjiAurora, CODB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 225 lbNew / unverified

#37PJ WeaverCary, ILDB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 175 lbNew / unverified

#14Tyshan MitchellMontgomery, NYDB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′10″ · 170 lbNew / unverified

#32Andrew JurasekWestlake, TXLB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′11″ · 235 lbNew / unverified

#35Bryce BradenStratford, TXLB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 225 lbNew / unverified

#41Sam OaklandSan Antonio, TXLB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 225 lbNew / unverified

#43Seth McFarlandLongview, TXLB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 235 lbNew / unverified

#7Cade SpradlingSpring Branch, TXQB0.2 pts4% starter · 28% conf.6′0″ · 200 lbNew / unverified

#21Chase FerrellHouston, TXRB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′6″ · 170 lbNew / unverified

#34Oswaldo MoralesTomball, TXRB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′9″ · 210 lbNew / unverified

#90Carter CremascoliMount Prospect, ILPK0.1 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′11″ · 210 lbNew / unverified

#27Price DavisMaryville, TNFB0.1 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 195 lbNew / unverified

2026 schedule

The path that shapes the projection.

The model prices every scheduled game individually. Home field, neutral sites, completed results and opponent rating feed the expected-win total shown above.

WeekOpponentSiteDate / result

DuquesneNon-conference · Falcon Stadium · 4M 18–39 · 88% win

HomeSep 51:00 PM EDT · model ↗2

North Dakota StateConference · Falcon Stadium · 4M 26–30 · 60% win

HomeSep 1210:00 PM EDT · model ↗4

NevadaConference · Mackay Stadium · 4M 28–27 · 54% win

AwaySep 2612:00 AM EDT · model ↗5

NavyNon-conference · Falcon Stadium · 4M 30–28 · 47% win

HomeOct 312:00 PM EDT · model ↗6

Northern IllinoisConference · Huskie Stadium · 4M 28–27 · 54% win

AwayOct 107:30 PM EDT · model ↗7

UNLVConference · Falcon Stadium · 4M 31–28 · 42% win

HomeOct 173:30 PM EDT · model ↗8

WyomingConference · War Memorial Stadium · 4M 27–27 · 51% win

AwayOct 239:00 PM EDT · model ↗9

UConnNon-conference · Falcon Stadium · 4M 28–30 · 52% win

HomeOct 313:00 PM EDT · model ↗10

ArmyNon-conference · Michie Stadium · 4M 25–32 · 35% win

AwayNov 77:30 PM EST · model ↗11

San José StateConference · Falcon Stadium · 4M 26–30 · 59% win

HomeNov 147:00 PM EST · model ↗12

UTEPConference · Falcon Stadium · 4M 22–31 · 69% win

HomeNov 208:00 PM EST · model ↗13

New MexicoConference · University Stadium (NM) · 4M 25–31 · 37% win

AwayNov 284:30 PM EST · model ↗

Range of outcomes

The projection is the middle—not the ceiling.

Floor case3 wins

Instability at premium positions turns swing games into losses.

4M midpoint6 wins

The roster performs close to its current power and schedule baseline.

Ceiling case8 wins

Quarterback play and line continuity outperform the preseason prior.

The betting lens

Price and matchup decide the play.

No team is an automatic bet or fade. The goal is to identify when the market's story about Air Force diverges from the football conditions required to cover.

Back them when

The spread is large, the favorite plays slowly, and the game script allows Air Force to stay inside the number without chasing points.

Pass or fade when

The offense must play from behind, protect for long-yardage throws and generate explosives simply to reach the market expectation.

Watch first

Quarterback efficiency, offensive-line cohesion and whether the defense can get off the field without blitzing itself out of structure.

Season-defining questionCan this team create enough explosive offense to separate in the reconfigured Mountain West?